NTC - NetComm Wireless
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So_Cynical
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
NTC are in a growth industry and as long as they keep their s**t together, they should turn a profit this year. My guess is that they will and considering the stock price has gone from $0.05 to $0.17 in 6 months I think a few others are thinking the same thing. I don't want to suggest getting back on the NTC train but I am guessing this stock will see a good increase in 2008.
NTC are in a growth industry and as long as they keep their s**t together, they should turn a profit this year. My guess is that they will and considering the stock price has gone from $0.05 to $0.17 in 6 months I think a few others are thinking the same thing. I don't want to suggest getting back on the NTC train but I am guessing this stock will see a good increase in 2008.
So_Cynical
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
If memory serves the management are major share holders and are
responsible for the past disasters...sole supplier (56k modems)
bankruptcy's and product recalls etc.
Read any net review of any netcomm product to see whats really happening.
EG: Verdict
If you intend to connect to ADSL2+ over a wireless router and are one of the lucky ones that can achieve a speed between 21Mbps and 24Mbps, the NetComm NB6Plus4W won't be able to deliver the full speed to wireless clients.
This isn't a show stopper as a large majority of homes are unlikely to hit this speed or even have the option
available, but it's something to keep in mind.
This is a relatively low end device for the home-office, but it has most
of the features you would hope for at a very reasonable price of AU$158.40. The basic
one-year warranty is extended to three years when you register the product online.
http://www.zdnet.com.au/reviews/har...uter-NB6Plus4W-/0,2000065582,339288644,00.htm
If memory serves the management are major share holders and are
responsible for the past disasters...sole supplier (56k modems)
bankruptcy's and product recalls etc.
Read any net review of any netcomm product to see whats really happening.
EG: Verdict
If you intend to connect to ADSL2+ over a wireless router and are one of the lucky ones that can achieve a speed between 21Mbps and 24Mbps, the NetComm NB6Plus4W won't be able to deliver the full speed to wireless clients.
This isn't a show stopper as a large majority of homes are unlikely to hit this speed or even have the option
available, but it's something to keep in mind.
This is a relatively low end device for the home-office, but it has most
of the features you would hope for at a very reasonable price of AU$158.40. The basic
one-year warranty is extended to three years when you register the product online.
http://www.zdnet.com.au/reviews/har...uter-NB6Plus4W-/0,2000065582,339288644,00.htm
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
zdnet reviews are shallow and flawed. APC mag extensively tested the 20 most popular ADSL2+ modems and Dynalink, Netcomm, and Cisco are all Number 1 in terms of speed... APC Reviews . Being the best does not mean you will be number 1 though. Some other modems from other makers are only popular because they are pushed hard at the whirlpool forum by online dealers who sell them for good margins, people then end up saying what they have is the best, not really realizing they are sitting in a support forum because they are trying to fix it.
Netcomms 56k factory closed for a good reason... dialup is dead, that factory had the best organized ftp site for Netcomms drivers so it must have been organized well and a big loss, but it was probably too big to convert to ADSL production easily.
Since then a director has left and they have restructured themselves very well buying another factory and the Australian arm of a sister company. They are also moving quickly to provide service based products which will have an ongoing growing income stream. They have also hinted at several more moves like this over the next two years.
Now Telstra has shown its interest in Netcomm, which should eventually lead to bigger contracts after a year or two.
zdnet reviews are shallow and flawed. APC mag extensively tested the 20 most popular ADSL2+ modems and Dynalink, Netcomm, and Cisco are all Number 1 in terms of speed... APC Reviews . Being the best does not mean you will be number 1 though. Some other modems from other makers are only popular because they are pushed hard at the whirlpool forum by online dealers who sell them for good margins, people then end up saying what they have is the best, not really realizing they are sitting in a support forum because they are trying to fix it.
Netcomms 56k factory closed for a good reason... dialup is dead, that factory had the best organized ftp site for Netcomms drivers so it must have been organized well and a big loss, but it was probably too big to convert to ADSL production easily.
Since then a director has left and they have restructured themselves very well buying another factory and the Australian arm of a sister company. They are also moving quickly to provide service based products which will have an ongoing growing income stream. They have also hinted at several more moves like this over the next two years.
Now Telstra has shown its interest in Netcomm, which should eventually lead to bigger contracts after a year or two.
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
10.5M is half if NTC's current revenue, nice to get that so early, should be worth 60c-80c some time this year
10.5M is half if NTC's current revenue, nice to get that so early, should be worth 60c-80c some time this year
Re: NTC - Netcomm
The contract value is impressive but I fear the profit margin won't be that great. With the high strength of the dollar, Netcomm was most likely very competitive to get that deal and probably got squeezed on its gross margin. Any better than no deal
I would love to see a stock price of $0.60 - $0.80 by early 2009 but I don't think it will happen, $0.40 seems more likely.
The contract value is impressive but I fear the profit margin won't be that great. With the high strength of the dollar, Netcomm was most likely very competitive to get that deal and probably got squeezed on its gross margin. Any better than no deal
I would love to see a stock price of $0.60 - $0.80 by early 2009 but I don't think it will happen, $0.40 seems more likely.
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
Yeah got a bit excited yesterday (by 'worth' I meant what it will be worth, was not really intended as a prediction on actual stock price), like you say it is hard to know the price without knowing the order sizes and understanding production costs... I imagine because they have been demanding premium prices for their high end modems they would have some inventory to run off for this contract (which is a very good thing to be able to do) and enough factories now to cover future production. The main thing for them now is to increase production without losing track of quality control.
I have used high end Netcomm modems for more than ten years and have never really understood some of the negativity that they get at times, hence my post here. I suppose it has to do with people losing on them as a stock and Netcomm releasing modems too fast with bad firmware and having had too many low end products in the past, they were forced to do this though as the whole industry was running slightly ahead of itself standards-wise. They seem to be on top of the quality control lately though and have dumped most low end products over the last three years.
Yeah got a bit excited yesterday (by 'worth' I meant what it will be worth, was not really intended as a prediction on actual stock price), like you say it is hard to know the price without knowing the order sizes and understanding production costs... I imagine because they have been demanding premium prices for their high end modems they would have some inventory to run off for this contract (which is a very good thing to be able to do) and enough factories now to cover future production. The main thing for them now is to increase production without losing track of quality control.
I have used high end Netcomm modems for more than ten years and have never really understood some of the negativity that they get at times, hence my post here. I suppose it has to do with people losing on them as a stock and Netcomm releasing modems too fast with bad firmware and having had too many low end products in the past, they were forced to do this though as the whole industry was running slightly ahead of itself standards-wise. They seem to be on top of the quality control lately though and have dumped most low end products over the last three years.
So_Cynical
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
Bottomdraw...so u are aware the NTC have had past quality problems and then
say u don't understand the negativity that they get sometimes.
I would of thought its a "no brainer" the negativity come from those products with
"quality control issues" 154,000 customers cant be wrong.
Old news but still relevant...future behavior is often a reflection of past behavior.
Quote:NetComm NB1300 problems revealed...2005-Aug-2, 1:15 am
Phil Sweeney
NetComm modem owners who have long complained of unreliable performance from
the NB1300 ADSL modem/router are not imagining things, it seems.
Australian IT reports today that Telstra has accused NetComm of modifying the
firmware of the NB1300 and in the process breaking compatibility with Telstra's
IP 1149 standard. Modems must adhere to this standard to be certified for use
on Telstra's ADSL network...etc etc.
http://whirlpool.net.au/news/?id=1520&show=all
Bottomdraw...so u are aware the NTC have had past quality problems and then
say u don't understand the negativity that they get sometimes.
I would of thought its a "no brainer" the negativity come from those products with
"quality control issues"
154,000 customers cant be wrong.Old news but still relevant...future behavior is often a reflection of past behavior.
Quote:NetComm NB1300 problems revealed...2005-Aug-2, 1:15 am
Phil Sweeney
NetComm modem owners who have long complained of unreliable performance from
the NB1300 ADSL modem/router are not imagining things, it seems.
Australian IT reports today that Telstra has accused NetComm of modifying the
firmware of the NB1300 and in the process breaking compatibility with Telstra's
IP 1149 standard. Modems must adhere to this standard to be certified for use
on Telstra's ADSL network...etc etc.
http://whirlpool.net.au/news/?id=1520&show=all
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
It is the same with any hardware company they all mess up from time to time, imho Netcomm actually mess up far less than all their competitors. If you look at other unrelated hardware companies... Motherboards, ASUS have released BIOSes that have bricked their top of the line motherboards...Graphics, Nvidea and ATI struggle to match user expectations... Disks, IBM had to close their drive factories down after massive failure rates. What I don't get is why there are ridiculously extreme Netcomm 'haters' out there. (but I do... the answer is in your first post ;o) . I have never had any real problem with them and they have always given me nicest pings to the USA and a stable connection which is all I care about... I have been online gaming for twelve years (yes 12!) and my Netcomm modems have been the nicestP
It is the same with any hardware company they all mess up from time to time, imho Netcomm actually mess up far less than all their competitors. If you look at other unrelated hardware companies... Motherboards, ASUS have released BIOSes that have bricked their top of the line motherboards...Graphics, Nvidea and ATI struggle to match user expectations... Disks, IBM had to close their drive factories down after massive failure rates. What I don't get is why there are ridiculously extreme Netcomm 'haters' out there. (but I do... the answer is in your first post ;o) . I have never had any real problem with them and they have always given me nicest pings to the USA and a stable connection which is all I care about... I have been online gaming for twelve years (yes 12!) and my Netcomm modems have been the nicest
PRe: NTC - Netcomm
I would assume that's what they've been doing, in terms of their spate of deals in the last 6 months. Seems like every few weeks they're inking another deal.
I would assume that's what they've been doing, in terms of their spate of deals in the last 6 months. Seems like every few weeks they're inking another deal.
Re: NTC - Netcomm
Today should be an interesting day for NTC considering yesterday's announcement. I did my own sums (probably wrong) based on the data in the announcements and calculating an EPS of $0.08 is not unreasonable, meaning a stock of price of $0.40 is definitely reasonable. If we were experiencing different financial times, a stock price of $0.80 would make more sense.
Anyway I am probably talking crap so let's see what tomorrow and the next couple of months tells us about the perceived value of this company.
Today should be an interesting day for NTC considering yesterday's announcement. I did my own sums (probably wrong) based on the data in the announcements and calculating an EPS of $0.08 is not unreasonable, meaning a stock of price of $0.40 is definitely reasonable. If we were experiencing different financial times, a stock price of $0.80 would make more sense.
Anyway I am probably talking crap so let's see what tomorrow and the next couple of months tells us about the perceived value of this company.
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
It is cheap at the moment, like last year, I just put my paycheck into it each month, rofl.
It is maybe a case of burned market and people have also avoided IT stocks for the last few years since the crash. Voodoo stuff. Dad calls these shares 'dodgy', but my friend who is an editor at the AFR said 'good job', so really sentiment is a mixed bag as far as I am concerned.
I think also the number of shares/options NTC are creating is slightly scary, given that we know very little about some of these deals. On the one hand you have deals where if it goes up shareholders lose out and on the other you have deals where if it goes down shareholders lose out. I also don't see why the directors are giving themselves share options at the current cheap market price, 20c would have been better. So yes the price is too low atm and it might take a little time work out the price. Maybe when we see some of the deals resolved and on paper.
I would have liked some options at this price ;o)
Anyway that's just me crying, that revenue is whooping! I was expecting 25M so maybe they just made some nice deals. I am sure they know the value of the them. The chairman has been no thrills honest so far and it is has been pretty easy to buy a decent % of the company if you wanted to, unlike most stocks over the last few years.
The dividends should get things back on track.
It is cheap at the moment, like last year, I just put my paycheck into it each month, rofl.
It is maybe a case of burned market and people have also avoided IT stocks for the last few years since the crash. Voodoo stuff. Dad calls these shares 'dodgy', but my friend who is an editor at the AFR said 'good job', so really sentiment is a mixed bag as far as I am concerned.
I think also the number of shares/options NTC are creating is slightly scary, given that we know very little about some of these deals. On the one hand you have deals where if it goes up shareholders lose out and on the other you have deals where if it goes down shareholders lose out. I also don't see why the directors are giving themselves share options at the current cheap market price, 20c would have been better. So yes the price is too low atm and it might take a little time work out the price. Maybe when we see some of the deals resolved and on paper.
I would have liked some options at this price ;o)
Anyway that's just me crying, that revenue is whooping! I was expecting 25M so maybe they just made some nice deals. I am sure they know the value of the them. The chairman has been no thrills honest so far and it is has been pretty easy to buy a decent % of the company if you wanted to, unlike most stocks over the last few years.
The dividends should get things back on track.
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
k, the price should be 31c-47c (for 7% return on low ball, high ball dividends, I suppose they could roll the ball along the ground though)... rofl at the economy. Currently you are maybe looking at 17-25% return on current price just from the probable dividend. Maybe they are going to use more of the profit to buy another company... even then it should be 16c+, so maybe just ppl assuming the worst atm.
p.s. I was a bit heavy in that last post, I did not read the option conditions properly before I posted it. cheers.
k, the price should be 31c-47c (for 7% return on low ball, high ball dividends, I suppose they could roll the ball along the ground though)... rofl at the economy. Currently you are maybe looking at 17-25% return on current price just from the probable dividend. Maybe they are going to use more of the profit to buy another company... even then it should be 16c+, so maybe just ppl assuming the worst atm.
p.s. I was a bit heavy in that last post, I did not read the option conditions properly before I posted it. cheers.
So_Cynical
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
A few weeks ago, someone on another thread said he got hit with a margin call for some other stock. Stupid thing to tell a forum, rofl. He only had 100k of NTC stock.. even crazier to tell ppl that. Hard to know what to believe on these forums, though. For example... more than 22k has been bought by me in that period you outlined.. so what you say is not true, and like you said.. you lost money on this stock, so it is hard to take you seriously. The volume is dropping b/c no one is selling anything real... just a few ppl forced to sell probably, same everywhere.
Netcomm will be OK because it will benefit from infrastructure spending. Also, the first thing I did when I changed jobs a few years ago was buy a new modem (to make sitting around at home more fun) and get a new phone (to manage job interviews better)... I dare say a few ppl will be doing that atm. The Telstra contract will give Netcomm time to develop services and work out other hardware directions to move in. They have proved they have what it takes to help large companies mesh their technology well and the current products are really cool now, looks nice to me : o ).
A few weeks ago, someone on another thread said he got hit with a margin call for some other stock. Stupid thing to tell a forum, rofl. He only had 100k of NTC stock.. even crazier to tell ppl that. Hard to know what to believe on these forums, though. For example... more than 22k has been bought by me in that period you outlined.. so what you say is not true, and like you said.. you lost money on this stock, so it is hard to take you seriously. The volume is dropping b/c no one is selling anything real... just a few ppl forced to sell probably, same everywhere.
Netcomm will be OK because it will benefit from infrastructure spending. Also, the first thing I did when I changed jobs a few years ago was buy a new modem (to make sitting around at home more fun) and get a new phone (to manage job interviews better)... I dare say a few ppl will be doing that atm. The Telstra contract will give Netcomm time to develop services and work out other hardware directions to move in. They have proved they have what it takes to help large companies mesh their technology well and the current products are really cool now, looks nice to me : o ).
Re: NTC - Netcomm
Just announced $6.2 million profit, with dividend to be announced within 14 days.
So a company with market cap $23mil and $6.2 mil profit. - ie PE of less than 4!; and soon to pay a dividend.
Great review in AFR (See below for headlines). Up from here I think. I disclose holdings.
Strong growth for NetComm
Thursday, 20 August 2009 | MIS.Online | Paul Smith
Broadband modem and router maker NetComm pointed to further expansion of global wireless broadband take up for further growth this year after booking results that demonstrated a strong performance in new markets.
Attraction of 3G wireless broadband triples sales
Friday, 21 August 2009 | The Australian Financial Review | Paul Smith
Broadband modem and router maker NetComm expects further growth this year from the continuing expansion of global wireless broadband take-up after its results showed strong performance unhindered by the global financial crisis.
Just announced $6.2 million profit, with dividend to be announced within 14 days.So a company with market cap $23mil and $6.2 mil profit. - ie PE of less than 4!; and soon to pay a dividend.
Great review in AFR (See below for headlines). Up from here I think. I disclose holdings.
Strong growth for NetComm
Thursday, 20 August 2009 | MIS.Online | Paul Smith
Broadband modem and router maker NetComm pointed to further expansion of global wireless broadband take up for further growth this year after booking results that demonstrated a strong performance in new markets.
Attraction of 3G wireless broadband triples sales
Friday, 21 August 2009 | The Australian Financial Review | Paul Smith
Broadband modem and router maker NetComm expects further growth this year from the continuing expansion of global wireless broadband take-up after its results showed strong performance unhindered by the global financial crisis.
doogie_goes_off
disbelieve if you can
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Re: NTC - Netcomm
Agreed, this is a pretty good result. Looks like the broadband revolution is paying dividends (I hope). I hold.
Agreed, this is a pretty good result. Looks like the broadband revolution is paying dividends (I hope). I hold.
Re: NTC - Netcomm
Well Mexican Standoff. All are waiting for the dividend announcment I suspect. Due before the end of this week. I am hoping for 1.5 cents. But time will tell.
Well Mexican Standoff. All are waiting for the dividend announcment I suspect. Due before the end of this week. I am hoping for 1.5 cents. But time will tell.
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