Craton
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Any thoughts on NTC and it's push into M2M devices?
NTC - NetComm Wireless
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Craton
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Stupid noobie!
Disclosure. Sorry, should have said in my first post. Yes I do have a parcel of this stock.
FWIW.
My way of thinking is that M2M is a very big market with even bigger potential. SP got a nice little up tick this morning on latest deal announcement.
Disclosure. Sorry, should have said in my first post. Yes I do have a parcel of this stock.
FWIW.
My way of thinking is that M2M is a very big market with even bigger potential. SP got a nice little up tick this morning on latest deal announcement.
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Would you mind giving us a quick rundown of the company and what M2M actually is?
Im completely unfamiliar with the stock, but I used to own a NetComm router if thats relevant?
skc
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Would you mind giving us a quick rundown of the company and what M2M actually is?
Im completely unfamiliar with the stock, but I used to own a NetComm router if thats relevant?
Lol. I had exactly the same thoughts. Haven't seen too many netcomm routers around these days.
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Yeah. When I get home Ill check but I dont think its a NetComm anymore.
Had a quick look through the company presentation, the application of smart meters and what I understand M2M to be - (Detectors that provide instantaneous feedback to system/people on things like power usage, waste bin levels etc etc)...are pretty awesome and I can see the potential. But based on what management has said in the past and the lack of it translating into economic performance doesnt exactly leave me too inspired in the ability of the company to capture this potential...
...The old buffet quote about the motor car industry in the early days sprang to mind when reading the preso
That said, it will be a good one to keep an eye on out of interest.
Craton
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Thanks for posting up VSntchr. Not just smart meters though.
M2M = Machine To Machine. Technology that allows computing devices to communicate with each other in real time primarily over a wireless network.
M2M = Machine To Machine. Technology that allows computing devices to communicate with each other in real time primarily over a wireless network.
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Daily P&F Update:-
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Craton
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...and a speeding ticket to boot. I guess I'm not the only one interested in this stock.
Still holding but getting an itchy trigger finger. My downfall though is that I'm a sucker for letting runners, run.
Still holding but getting an itchy trigger finger. My downfall though is that I'm a sucker for letting runners, run.
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A Daily P&F update:-
So_Cynical
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Or could be nothing as was the case previously.
Craton
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Am still holding, although this may change without notice, and was happy to see the uptick again after profit taking. Agree with westboy that NTC has huge potential with its M2M technology and I guess that's been reflected in the SP.
Very interesting deal that NTC announced during the week with Tele2, which is a European based telco. I also note that a few weeks ago that Tele2 announced an m2m deal with Vattenfall, which is a large electricity and energy company in Europe.
I note that Vattenfall has over 6.2M retail metered clients, largely based in Sweden (1.2M) Germany (2.9M) and the Netherlands (2M). I note that the customers in Sweden have now been converted to smart metres. Vattenfall has also advised recently that they are looking at converting the Germany meters to smart meters. Given the recent contract for the Victorian smart meters for NTC was circa 100K units at $125 per unit, this could be a seriously large order for NTC.
I note that NTC's 3G technology was only used in a small portion of the rollout in the Victorian smart meters with the remainder using the Wimax technology. It looks like the wimax technology is inferior to the 3g technology with sp ausnet experiencing so large issues with the wimax part of the rollout. I am certain that if the rollout was undertaken today, that 100% of the smart meters installed would be using 3G technology.
Given NTC's great track record with 3g smart meters, is it merely concidence that Tele2 and NTC signed an agreement a mere few weeks after Tele2 signing with Vattenfall who have stated they are looking at upgrading the German meters to smart? We will speculate a bit further on that below!
These figures are just rough back of the envelope numbers and is assuming NTC get a slice of this pie( a reasonable assumption given the recent deal between NTC and Tele2) ,but bare with me. Lets assume that 100% of the German meters get upgraded to NTC's 3g smart meter cards.Bullish you say, but given sp ausnets issues with wimax tech in Victoria I doubt many telco's will be stumping up to use wimax much. So 2.9M units is a large order, much larger than the 100K units for Victoria so NTC will be able get their manufacturer to sharpen their pencil, plus with an order this size NTC would probably have to sharpen it's pencil as well. So instead of 100K units at $125 with a GP of 25%, let's assume $90/unit at a GP of say 20%. That is $58M gp and given the scaleability of this business will largely drop to NPBT. Plus I assume Sweden used the wimax tech in their rollout and it's rubbish and needs to be replaced. (Potentially why they did a deal with tele2 and potentially why tele2 did a deal with NTC). Include Netherlands in the potential rollout and a guess that the Swedish stuff is rubbish then the maths double.
OK you have my inputs, you can play around with unit price, NTC's margain, and the number of units and come up with your own maths, but the fact remains that this stock is $96M market cap and this is the potential for just one deal , which would be amongst tens of thousands happening around the world ATM in the M2M space.
Seriously NTC could be anything IMHO!!!!!
I note that Vattenfall has over 6.2M retail metered clients, largely based in Sweden (1.2M) Germany (2.9M) and the Netherlands (2M). I note that the customers in Sweden have now been converted to smart metres. Vattenfall has also advised recently that they are looking at converting the Germany meters to smart meters. Given the recent contract for the Victorian smart meters for NTC was circa 100K units at $125 per unit, this could be a seriously large order for NTC.
I note that NTC's 3G technology was only used in a small portion of the rollout in the Victorian smart meters with the remainder using the Wimax technology. It looks like the wimax technology is inferior to the 3g technology with sp ausnet experiencing so large issues with the wimax part of the rollout. I am certain that if the rollout was undertaken today, that 100% of the smart meters installed would be using 3G technology.
Given NTC's great track record with 3g smart meters, is it merely concidence that Tele2 and NTC signed an agreement a mere few weeks after Tele2 signing with Vattenfall who have stated they are looking at upgrading the German meters to smart? We will speculate a bit further on that below!
These figures are just rough back of the envelope numbers and is assuming NTC get a slice of this pie( a reasonable assumption given the recent deal between NTC and Tele2) ,but bare with me. Lets assume that 100% of the German meters get upgraded to NTC's 3g smart meter cards.Bullish you say, but given sp ausnets issues with wimax tech in Victoria I doubt many telco's will be stumping up to use wimax much. So 2.9M units is a large order, much larger than the 100K units for Victoria so NTC will be able get their manufacturer to sharpen their pencil, plus with an order this size NTC would probably have to sharpen it's pencil as well. So instead of 100K units at $125 with a GP of 25%, let's assume $90/unit at a GP of say 20%. That is $58M gp and given the scaleability of this business will largely drop to NPBT. Plus I assume Sweden used the wimax tech in their rollout and it's rubbish and needs to be replaced. (Potentially why they did a deal with tele2 and potentially why tele2 did a deal with NTC). Include Netherlands in the potential rollout and a guess that the Swedish stuff is rubbish then the maths double.
OK you have my inputs, you can play around with unit price, NTC's margain, and the number of units and come up with your own maths, but the fact remains that this stock is $96M market cap and this is the potential for just one deal , which would be amongst tens of thousands happening around the world ATM in the M2M space.
Seriously NTC could be anything IMHO!!!!!
Craton
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Thanks for the napkin numbers westboy. M2M and ToT is huge potential no doubt.
Craton
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Up strongly in the last few days ahead of a deal to be finalised, or not, by EOY: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/NTC
Still holding.
Still holding.
greggles
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Anyone know why NetComm Wireless was dumped so heavily today? At first glance their FY18 financial results didn't look so bad, but perhaps I'm missing something?
NTC currently down 39.26% to 82c. Huge volume with more than 10 million shares traded today.
NTC currently down 39.26% to 82c. Huge volume with more than 10 million shares traded today.
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Unbelievable ….. Tough market …. NPAT of $8 million with $27 million in the bank and a Market Cap of around $200 million as of yesterday …… (40% less today so approx. $120 million MC today
…… Hate to see what would have happened with bad numbers
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