North Korea

[sptrawler]

I think that if he does anything really silly, then it's a sign that China wants to go to war.

Well if that happens, we will become the next state of the U.S real quick.

 

[tinhat]

I read a very good article - can't find the link - suggesting that it's an internal power struggle between about four senior figures including Kim. He's trying to stamp his authority on the military and the country by creating a crisis against the common enemy and make himself look like a tough guy. They will probably pop a missle off into the ocean to show everyone how badass they are.

Nice to see the gold price rebound a little. I'm hoping the dip on the ASX continues especially in the financials.

 

[Country Lad]

They will probably pop a missile off into the ocean to show everyone how badass they are.

And the US shoot it down just in case they are serious about blowing up Guam, or just because they can. Now that would be a tad embarrassing for the North Koreans.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[gordon2007]

In a slightly humourous way I'm kind of hoping that is actually what happens. But I reckon if that did happen he'd lose so much face that it would trigger some serious outbursts that and actually lead to a war.


*edited for spelling mistakes.

And the US shoot it down just in case they are serious about blowing up Guam, or just because they can. Now that would be a tad embarrassing for the North Koreans.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[tinhat]

And the US shoot it down just in case they are serious about blowing up Guam, or just because they can. Now that would be a tad embarrassing for the North Koreans.

Cheers
Country Lad

It depends on which direction they fire it. The North Koreans in recent times have sunk a South Korean ship and bombed a South Korean island and the South Koreans have not responded. They really don't want to engage in a conflict that will break the armistice because any conflict will result in missiles raining down on Seoul. As comical as the North Koreans seems they've got a **** load of missiles pointed at Seoul which is not much more than 50km from the border.

 

[DB008]

I read a very good article - can't find the link - suggesting that it's an internal power struggle between about four senior figures including Kim. He's trying to stamp his authority on the military and the country by creating a crisis against the common enemy and make himself look like a tough guy. They will probably pop a missle off into the ocean to show everyone how badass they are.

I read the same article yesterday. Well written.
I think it was in the SMH or the Australian.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Dear Leader or just a fat porker?

View attachment 51641

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...ed-amid-tensions/story-e6frg6so-1226613037611

Anonymous are on to the little bastard's case.

It is they who hacked the N. Korean government's site and posted the above Miss Piggy version of The Supreme Leader.

Having the USA and Anonymous on his case, will spell the end for him.

Not a good combination to have against you.

gg

 

[Knobby22]

It depends on which direction they fire it. The North Koreans in recent times have sunk a South Korean ship and bombed a South Korean island and the South Koreans have not responded. They really don't want to engage in a conflict that will break the armistice because any conflict will result in missiles raining down on Seoul. As comical as the North Koreans seems they've got a **** load of missiles pointed at Seoul which is not much more than 50km from the border.

...plus heaps of artillery.
I think there might be a minor retaliatory blow if SK do it this time.
the danger is South Korea might go the next step.

I wonder where I will be able to get the spare parts for my works Hyundai should that occur

The sad think is Kim Jong-Un would have made a great real estate agent (ref. your previous comment tinhat) but his Aunt is a ruthless Lady Macbeth.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/wo...s-in-north-korea/story-fnd134gw-1226614836996

 

[skc]

Crisis averted.

 

[Sean K]

I dont think this is going anywhere, but it's interesting how far the World allows a 'mature' State to go in regard to the threats and posturing. They've been treated for what they are. An embarrassing joke.

 

[Whiskers]

...plus heaps of artillery.
I think there might be a minor retaliatory blow if SK do it this time.
the danger is South Korea might go the next step.

I wonder where I will be able to get the spare parts for my works Hyundai should that occur

The sad think is Kim Jong-Un would have made a great real estate agent (ref. your previous comment tinhat) but his Aunt is a ruthless Lady Macbeth.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/wo...s-in-north-korea/story-fnd134gw-1226614836996

All valid points from the perspective of a fickle recovery from the GFC.

North Korea has been a family affair ever since its inception by Russia in 1948 under Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994. Russia has transformed a lot since the days of Starlin and will likely concede a-la the Berlin wall and the fall of the USSR.

Not even China would want to go to war with the US while owed abt 1 trillion USD.

The only real issue is will some of the more moderate generals win out to maintain a Communist government or are the 'Family' and hardline supporters intent on provoking a conflict to take full dictatorial control.

I dont think this is going anywhere, but it's interesting how far the World allows a 'mature' State to go in regard to the threats and posturing. They've been treated for what they are. An embarrassing joke.

As a general rule humiliating these kind of people only infuriates them more, to retaliate.

While they have an isolated and a significant part of the population endoctrinated to hate and fear the west, a million troops, heaps of tanks and artillery and and annoying amount of planes, subs and ships they remain a serious threat to disrupting the world economy again via South Korea and Japan.

Apparently the failed rocket/missile launch a while back caused considerable humiliation and further embarrassment also.

A lot of pent up humuliation, embarrasement and power struggling is more likely to result in some sort of strike to regain national pride, esspecially while the Aunt is a 4 star general and holds considerable influence.

What's the alternative... a coup d'état to remove the founding family from any control or renogate them to figureheads, in favor of a communist regeime more like China?

 

[Sean K]

What's the alternative... a coup d'état to remove the founding family from any control or renogate them to figureheads, in favor of a communist regeime more like China?

The only true change comes from within I think. The people need to rise up under their own steam.

 

[Knobby22]

Good writing Whiskers. You make some good points.

 

[Whiskers]

The only true change comes from within I think. The people need to rise up under their own steam.

True... and there-in lies additional motivation for the rest of the world to strike back hard at the next provication to demonstrate to the north korean people their leaders are incompetent and cause them to question what they are led to believe.

As I understand, international aid has dried up subtantially in the last few years with increased sanctions and the people must be doing it pretty tough... and from all accounts are getting pretty well endoctrinated to blame the west for their situation.

From a psychological perspective, the 'family' see themselves in a catch 22 at the moment, after all the ranting, threats and declaration of war, I think it's more likely now they will have to order a strike, otherwise they will have to back down in further humiliation and relinquish probably total control to the more moderate elements of the communist party.

 

[gordon2007]

Sorry Kennas but that's an armchair statement to me. How do you propose a starving population who have no means to any outside information in the world rise up? Much easier said than done.

The only true change comes from within I think. The people need to rise up under their own steam.

 

[Whiskers]

Getting close to put up or shut up time now with the latest North Korean warning that war could break out at any moment. Also reports of secretive and descrete movement of misile launchers to try to confuse spies.

One of two things will likely happen soon, neither will be good for kim jong un and 'the family'.

It still remains to be seen whether they will actually test whether, despite public pleas, Russia and China will come to their support in the event of war. I'm still leaning in favor of Kim testing his luck again to some degree.

Also, given the Kim family is considered extreme, even within the North Korean ruling party, can we rule out some sort of collaberation with other state or terrorist sources?

 

[Knobby22]

I think Whiskers is that we are now in a face saving exercise. The family will just shoot another missile into the sea. I can't see them risking their power by being too provocative.

 

[Whiskers]

I think Whiskers is that we are now in a face saving exercise. The family will just shoot another missile into the sea. I can't see them risking their power by being too provocative.

It may well end up in the sea, but I'm thinking that will probably be by lack of expertise than design.

Given they family was appointed by a criminal, psychopathic Stalin when he was becoming increasingly paranoid, and the aunt is a 4 star general controlling a significant element in the military, they have demonstrated the same criminal, psychopathic, cult behaviours as Stalin to date, I'm thinking they won't just back down.

I'm thinking they may need to provoke a war to regain the south and hope everyone falls in behind... or just enough to seize total dictatorial control of the communist party and country.

 

[Country Lad]

It may well end up in the sea, but I'm thinking that will probably be by lack of expertise than design.

The second most embarrassing would be that it blows up on the launch pad.
The most embarrassing is that it goes off course and drops on China.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[CanOz]

The second most embarrassing would be that it blows up on the launch pad.
The most embarrassing is that it goes off course and drops on China.

Cheers
Country Lad

You know it not at all unreasonable to think that something like that could happen. This gear is not exactly state of the art, its likely poorly maintained and operated by those with less than up-to-date skills....

I just hope no one gets killed over their childish brinkmanship.

CanOz