NHC - New Hope Corporation
- Thread starter laurie
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Laurie,
I used to hold but it is just too stagnant for me.
I actually perform some contract work for New Hope at their Acland Operations (15 minutes from Oakey (20 minutes west of Toowoomba). It's only a small mine but one that has potential to become a lot bigger.
Two points to mention here.
1. They have a significant stake in AOE. Hence sp movement of late. Not to do with NHC operation imho.
2. If they are successful with the Tarong Power Station contract up for grabs the mine site output is likely to increase to close to 10m tonne a year in a few years. They are already doubling output from 2m to 4m with Sedgman on site coordinating new infrastructure construction. There won't be any news on this (Tarong) til probably after June. So my contacts tell me. They are a good chance as Tarong needs to reduce its emissions and Acland has high quality coal. Two competitors are mine near Chinchilla and one near the power station itself. My tip is that NHC will win the contract because of their quality of coal + proximity.
Of course you could always buy shares in Soul Pat if you want exposure to New Hope also.
I used to hold but it is just too stagnant for me.
I actually perform some contract work for New Hope at their Acland Operations (15 minutes from Oakey (20 minutes west of Toowoomba). It's only a small mine but one that has potential to become a lot bigger.
Two points to mention here.
1. They have a significant stake in AOE. Hence sp movement of late. Not to do with NHC operation imho.
2. If they are successful with the Tarong Power Station contract up for grabs the mine site output is likely to increase to close to 10m tonne a year in a few years. They are already doubling output from 2m to 4m with Sedgman on site coordinating new infrastructure construction. There won't be any news on this (Tarong) til probably after June. So my contacts tell me. They are a good chance as Tarong needs to reduce its emissions and Acland has high quality coal. Two competitors are mine near Chinchilla and one near the power station itself. My tip is that NHC will win the contract because of their quality of coal + proximity.
Of course you could always buy shares in Soul Pat if you want exposure to New Hope also.
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I hold some shares to have some exposure to coal, but never look at it in any way. It is just an energy play with some land bank for housing project.
SOL owns a lot of them.
SOL owns a lot of them.
Just noticed the sp is moving along nicely $1.615 when a month ago it was jammed on $1.34 I think IMHO its more than AOE going up it may be helping it along also but someone must know something as it has just gone ex dividend where normally you would see a drop in sp 
cheers laurie
cheers laurie
Just noticed the sp is moving along nicely $1.615 when a month ago it was jammed on $1.34 I think IMHO its more than AOE going up it may be helping it along also but someone must know something as it has just gone ex dividend where normally you would see a drop in sp
cheers laurie
You could be right Laurie, but I believe it will come back from this level. It is a rather up and down share.
Still minor volume & would not be buying at these prices. Just my opinion though. Long time til any announcement from Tarong Power - 3-4 months.
Every thing you say Jimminy is correct I think its more down than up
but again you are forgetting the dividend return and the past capital return has made the slow move forward bearable I think from memory allowing for franking credits a return of 10% is not bad from a share that was $1.30+ the next capital return will have me almost free carried cheers laurie
No argument there.... very good divvie. They did forecast a small profit downgrade back at the start of the year however.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Just noticed the sp is moving along nicely $1.615 when a month ago it was jammed on $1.34 I think IMHO its more than AOE going up it may be helping it along also but someone must know something as it has just gone ex dividend where normally you would see a drop in sp
cheers laurie
I think it was the GCL takover that dragged coal shares up.
MCC, CEY, FLX, RSP, CNA, NHC
thx
MS
Well this little baby is flying under the radar of most investors $1.62 a year ago now hit a high of $4.45 today the quite achiever read the latest announcement this company has it's fingers into a lot of other things including a stake in AOE
cheers laurie
cheers laurie
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Keeps running this one
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 10.8 24.6 25.8
DPS 0.0 6.8 14.8 12.6
I think this share, although sitting at a high P/E will continue in a strong upward channel over the next few years.
It should be expected that New Hope will increase cash flow from around $60 million this year to around $140 million next year and remain at more than $100 million through to FY11 at least as the company attempts to lift output from the record 5.23 million tonnes shipped in 2007 to seven million tonnes by 2010.
Saraji will come on line in the years ahead, and the 18.8% stake in Arrow Energy looks like going from strength to strength. What a bargain they picked up there from Macquarie for their CH4 stake (post merger with AOE)!
Even allowing for a more subdued outlook for equity prices in coming months as economic growth both in Austalia and globally comes under pressure, NHC looks a sound investment. Which makes Soul Pat with a P/E under 10 a very cheap stock by any measure.
The CTL seems high risk to me given the higher carbon emissions, but their exploration acreage on the Darling Downs (see most recent presentation) makes me even more interested in their strategic investment in Arrow.
cheers.
It should be expected that New Hope will increase cash flow from around $60 million this year to around $140 million next year and remain at more than $100 million through to FY11 at least as the company attempts to lift output from the record 5.23 million tonnes shipped in 2007 to seven million tonnes by 2010.
Saraji will come on line in the years ahead, and the 18.8% stake in Arrow Energy looks like going from strength to strength. What a bargain they picked up there from Macquarie for their CH4 stake (post merger with AOE)!
Even allowing for a more subdued outlook for equity prices in coming months as economic growth both in Austalia and globally comes under pressure, NHC looks a sound investment. Which makes Soul Pat with a P/E under 10 a very cheap stock by any measure.
The CTL seems high risk to me given the higher carbon emissions, but their exploration acreage on the Darling Downs (see most recent presentation) makes me even more interested in their strategic investment in Arrow.
cheers.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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I think this share, although sitting at a high P/E will continue in a strong upward channel over the next few years.
It should be expected that New Hope will increase cash flow from around $60 million this year to around $140 million next year and remain at more than $100 million through to FY11 at least as the company attempts to lift output from the record 5.23 million tonnes shipped in 2007 to seven million tonnes by 2010.
Saraji will come on line in the years ahead, and the 18.8% stake in Arrow Energy looks like going from strength to strength. What a bargain they picked up there from Macquarie for their CH4 stake (post merger with AOE)!
Even allowing for a more subdued outlook for equity prices in coming months as economic growth both in Austalia and globally comes under pressure, NHC looks a sound investment. Which makes Soul Pat with a P/E under 10 a very cheap stock by any measure.
The CTL seems high risk to me given the higher carbon emissions, but their exploration acreage on the Darling Downs (see most recent presentation) makes me even more interested in their strategic investment in Arrow.
cheers.
DO you know what % stake SOL is holidng in NHC?
SOL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 41.6 57.5 99.7 92.0
DPS 28.5 32.0 50.0 56.0
thx
MS
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A quick look shows that SOL may hold up to 61%. Pretty significant....one would expect SOL to track NHC somewhat, what do people think? Looks like it is after another quick look.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Hm thats quite alot considering MC of NHC is higher than SOL!
Btw it has about 1.5billion resources, but only 231m in proven reserves atm
thx
MS
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Word is that the Acland Mine will be a significant mine with a long term 20mT / pa target being looked at. Obviously this is further down the track as only 10mT is being discussed at present.
Given the significant amount of (high quality, low emission) coal they have at Acland and land holdings, the coal will be demand into the future. If the probable if coverted to proven, then Acland still have a 20 year life in the mine at 20mt/ pa - not including other nearby landholdings close to rail infrastructure.
Throw in Saraji and in ten years time this co. will be no longer be a small producer.
Although there is a significant holding by SOL, I am sure that the door is always open to an offer taking into account the significant growth this co. has in the pipeline.
There would be a few running ruler over its thermal & coking coal resources imo.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Well it reached an all time high of $5.13 today not sure if the trading halt in AOE has anything to do with it
cheers laurie
Hm maybe, or could it be Ken Talbot going shopping for coal from the proceeds he got for MCC?
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 8.6 10.8 24.6 21.9
DPS 0.0 6.8 14.8 12.5
thx
MS
The top 20 hold something like over 90% of NHC so I doubt Talbot would bother with NHC... More related to AOE obviously
