Newbie Lessons - All your questions answered

[faddishworm]

Re: Newbie Lessons - All your questions answered - NCM market indicators

Hey,

I am new, bought in with NCM at 16.4 a few months ago.

Obviously, it was a stern intro to the market for me with a huge fall to a 52week low of 11.4.

I keep analysing market factors like the AUS dollar falling (good since they are an exporter) - potential inflation due to the US printing money and Gold being used as a hedge.

Since NCM was supposed to have low production costs I thought that gold prices wouldn't really hurt them unless under $1000/ounce

Given the gold price fluctuation, I also see the recent capital reductions and expenditure reduction as a good thing too.

So my question is: Am I totally on the wrong track, am I looking at the wrong things?

A 30+% drop is huge if the entire 30% can be attributed to bearish investors jumping ship because of negative press. How big an influence do entities like Morningstar have on these trends?

To me NCM at the moment screams buy, and those are the things I am reading into - am I missing the point? Is there some looming disaster about to send them plunging to 0?

Any advise would be great. Thanks.

 

[ROE]

Re: Newbie Lessons - All your questions answered - NCM market indicators

Hey,

I am new, bought in with NCM at 16.4 a few months ago.

Obviously, it was a stern intro to the market for me with a huge fall to a 52week low of 11.4.

I keep analysing market factors like the AUS dollar falling (good since they are an exporter) - potential inflation due to the US printing money and Gold being used as a hedge.

Since NCM was supposed to have low production costs I thought that gold prices wouldn't really hurt them unless under $1000/ounce

Given the gold price fluctuation, I also see the recent capital reductions and expenditure reduction as a good thing too.

So my question is: Am I totally on the wrong track, am I looking at the wrong things?

A 30+% drop is huge if the entire 30% can be attributed to bearish investors jumping ship because of negative press. How big an influence do entities like Morningstar have on these trends?

To me NCM at the moment screams buy, and those are the things I am reading into - am I missing the point? Is there some looming disaster about to send them plunging to 0?

Any advise would be great. Thanks.

Hang around longer you see any commodity business is a tough business, commodity price is unpredictable
and share price tend to follow commodity price...it makes worse if other factors come into play like high production cost, debt, delay etc..

it far easier to predict price of a pizza, a can of coke, a coffee and a MacDonald burger next year than price of iron ore or gold.

with that it hard to predict if the stock is cheap or not .... it's easier to predict something is cheap if you
have confident predicting its earning....

what gold price going to be next year? $1000? $1800? $800? but I can tell you with confident that a price of a coffee will be at least $3.30 and a Dominos pizza for $6-$8 with coupons etc...

sure everyone can have a go at them including multiple brokers but the chance of them being wrong is higher
than predicting WOW or RFG earning......

sometimes investing is just as simple as that ...go with something with reliable earning stream and you don't get surprise like NCM and if for some reason they crash you have a reasonable chance calling it cheap correct...

 

[qldfrog]

Re: Newbie Lessons - All your questions answered - NCM market indicators

Hey,



Any advise would be great. Thanks.

we can not give advise but there are often specific conditions/factor on stocks.
Are you aware that NCM (via the ex lihir it purchased) is exploiting a mine on an active volcano in PNG?
sooner or later {but that could be in a 1000 years) , the mine will go in flame.
If/when this happens, the share would disintegrate.
So, ON TOP OF the POG, global share market and AUD/US, you have another risk factor..
Probably not a stock to play without protection.
I would leave that specific one until you have more experience.
DYOR of course,
PS I own some NCM : bought at 14.66 but protected by put options so my losses will be limited to 11%, hard but able to live with

 

[faddishworm]

Re: Newbie Lessons - All your questions answered - NCM market indicators

we can not give advise but there are often specific conditions/factor on stocks.
Are you aware that NCM (via the ex lihir it purchased) is exploiting a mine on an active volcano in PNG?
sooner or later {but that could be in a 1000 years) , the mine will go in flame.
If/when this happens, the share would disintegrate.
So, ON TOP OF the POG, global share market and AUD/US, you have another risk factor..
Probably not a stock to play without protection.
I would leave that specific one until you have more experience.
DYOR of course,
PS I own some NCM : bought at 14.66 but protected by put options so my losses will be limited to 11%, hard but able to live with

This is a good suggestion, I ended up buying a little bit more to consolidate - I am of the attitude that if It does go to 0 then I will write it off as a loss and probably end up with a capital gains tax break. I invested the money the same way I would if I put it onto a blackjack table, quite ok with losing it forever, although would prefer to earn something. So im def. not about to lose my entire life savings. And if I manage to learn something along the way then it wont all be for nothing.

With all the bad press around NCM I have a feeling it will be oversold down to about $10. Maybe a bit of a technical bounce will kick in and I will have an opportunity to get out at only a small 10% loss.

There might be an ace in the hole with a bit of subsidisation from PNG since they are worried losing their development will hurt the economy, although I am definitely not banking on that!

 

[prawn_86]

Please move NCM discussion to the NCM thread. This thread is for Newbie lessons, if you have anything stock specific then please post in the appropriate area

Thanks

 

[RWTj]

I have a problem with my assignment on how to calculate franked and unfranked dividend.
My franked dividend received is $3,800. The unfranked dividend is $1,350.
I'm supposed to calculate the taxable income but only these two figures I'm not sure how to solve it.
Am I supposed to calculate franked dividend base on imputation credit (30/70) and unfranked base on marginal tax rate (30%)?
Thank you

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

I have a problem with my assignment on how to calculate franked and unfranked dividend.
My franked dividend received is $3,800. The unfranked dividend is $1,350.
I'm supposed to calculate the taxable income but only these two figures I'm not sure how to solve it.
Am I supposed to calculate franked dividend base on imputation credit (30/70) and unfranked base on marginal tax rate (30%)?
Thank you

Yes you're on the right track.

Remember, Franked dividend means tax has been paid on those dividends already, by the company issuing them, at the company tax rate (currently 30%). However you need to mark up the dividend to pre-tax to get a full view of your tax liability.

So, in this case:

Franked dividend = $3,800

Pre-tax = $3,800/(1-0.3) = $5428.57

Adding together your unfranked = $5428.57 + $1350 = $6778.57 <- this is your taxable income

 

[curiost]

Quick question for anyone out there willing to help: when you place a buy order on a stock through an online broker, where does the "market price" sit in terms of the stock's high and low of the day? Is it the price at the time you place the order? If you don't put market price on your order, what are the chances of you being able to buy less than market price? Is there ever a case where asking to buy at market price ends up with the order not going through?

Sorry that was a bit longer than expected.

 

[kid hustlr]

Quick question for anyone out there willing to help: when you place a buy order on a stock through an online broker, where does the "market price" sit in terms of the stock's high and low of the day? Is it the price at the time you place the order? If you don't put market price on your order, what are the chances of you being able to buy less than market price? Is there ever a case where asking to buy at market price ends up with the order not going through?

Sorry that was a bit longer than expected.

If you say "at market" the broker will execute immediately at the current price.

 

[Trembling Hand]

If you say "at market" the broker will execute immediately at the current price.

No not really at the current price which is really the last price. At market will execute at the next lowest ask price, if a buy and bid for sells. If there is insufficient volume to fill your order it will execute the remaining volume at the next best ask price and so on untill its filled all the order volume.

 

[skyQuake]

If you're with IB or Bell Direct, note that the Market to Limit order is a bit different from a regular Mkt order:

A Market-to-Limit (MTL) order is submitted as a market order to execute at the current best market price. If the order is only partially filled, the remainder of the order is canceled and re-submitted as a limit order with the limit price equal to the price at which the filled portion of the order executed.

 

[curiost]

I'd be doing it with Commsec. I guess for a trending up stock it would be better to wait until the end of the day to put in an order?

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

I'd be doing it with Commsec. I guess for a trending up stock it would be better to wait until the end of the day to put in an order?

Not necessarily. You might reach end of day and tomorrow the stock opens up 5%. The day after up another 5% and you're still sitting waiting for the perfect buy price.

The real question is, based on your timeframes/investing/trading strategies, is it better to risk missing a move for the sake of saving a couple of dollars?

 

[curiost]

Quick newbie question - what's the minimum amount of captial is needed for a noob to give stocks a go? I'm going to paper trade for a while and then dip my toe in tentatively with real cash. I have a feeling say a weekly trading system would have a relatively high capital entry threshold. Any thoughts on what that should be?

 

[jjbinks]

Quick newbie question - what's the minimum amount of captial is needed for a noob to give stocks a go? I'm going to paper trade for a while and then dip my toe in tentatively with real cash. I have a feeling say a weekly trading system would have a relatively high capital entry threshold. Any thoughts on what that should be?

basically if you have small capital than brokerage eat into your gains.
e.g. if you invest $2000 and brokerage is $20. you have already made a 1% loss.

you can try estimate how much capital you need:

first you need an idea of how often you will be trading over time period x = multiply this by your broker
then estimate how much % gain you will make over time period x

then work out out how much capital you will need to make a profit above your brkerage.

 

[GKLC]

Hi all,

I'm new to the stock markets as well as this forum. Before I ask the question, here is some background information about myself. I'm a recent graduate with a Bachelor of Commerce and I have an avid interest in not only the stock markets but financial markets in general. Having said that, I have not actually conducted any trades as yet using my capital simply because I don't have that kind of money at the moment. I am interested in learning more about the stock market and getting more exposure possibly through one of the two following associations that are mentioned below.

Question: Which one of the following would be better suited for someone like me? Any thoughts on why you would choose one over the other are welcome!

1) Australia Investor Association

2) Australian Shareholder Association

Many thanks for your replies in advance.

 

[burglar]

Any thoughts on why you would choose one over the other are welcome! ...

Hi GKLC,
Welcome to ASF,

What's wrong with right here?

 

[Julia]

Question: Which one of the following would be better suited for someone like me? Any thoughts on why you would choose one over the other are welcome!

1) Australia Investor Association

2) Australian Shareholder Association

Many thanks for your replies in advance.

What are you looking for that is prompting you to consider either?

 

[tech/a]

What are you looking for that is prompting you to consider either?

+1.

 

[GKLC]

Hi GKLC,
Welcome to ASF,

What's wrong with right here?

There's absolutely nothing wrong with right here, but like I said, I'm looking to broaden my exposure to the financial markets and joining one of the mentioned associations would certainly fast track me in that regard. It is simply another avenue which I could use to further my knowledge. I will be able to meet professionals, more experienced traders, attend their networking or information events, and utilise their resources. However, I'm not sure which one is better or more suitable to me which is why I asked the question