Neilson Smart Money Analyser: POTENTIAL price action

[moses]

Not all bearish signals are bears, which is why it is important to DYOR. When I first saw the ASX chart I almost freaked; but I soon found that that the ASX is rumoured to be take over target by Mac and NYSE. The strong smart money selling pressure is not so much indicating a likely fall in SP but a good time for all investors to take a profit.

(Note the date says Monday, but the last data is Friday evening.)

 

[moses]

Not sure whether this is one for the watchlist, or get in quick now for the next sharp jump. My guess is the latter. Smart buying pressure is positive and rising, and small profit takers are evaporating. Check the depth for more detail.

 

[moses]

MCC might not look good from the SP, but the SMA tells a different story. DYOR and make up your own mind which way this will go. I'm curious.

 

[moses]

NTU, the one that got away twice. Both of these insider smart buying pressure points preceded a sharp rise in SP and would have given us opportunity to buy in and profit handsomely had we been using the SMA.

 

[petervan]

Moses this is a great thread for someone like me who hasnt traded for years and just getting back into it. I used to use the SMART trading system by Joe Salmon (think thats his name)and had some success with it. I dont know whether to get it again because of the fantastic infomation you and other users of this site provide. Keep up the great work. Could you also chart up IDL tonight as I see large volume of buyers after chinese mining deals.

 

[Sean K]

Moses,

Have you paper traded this yet, or back tested it to find a probability of whether it works or not??

Kennas

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Moses,

If you have the time could you post up HLX's SMA index as at close of today, I reckon the HLX thread is the best place to post it,

Also has BYR's flattened out? Consolidating at 30c for now

 

[ric371]

High Moses
Thanks for the thread, I have taken the trial for a spin and like what I see.
A stock that I have made some cash out of BLT when I look at the smart money advisor and run a buy sell on the cross overs I would be up a fair bit more than I am but when I run it on some other stocks the benefit is not so obvious.
Do you think it is more predictable on stocks like BLT that have been quite volitile rather than more blue chip type stocks?
Have you found any correlation on stock type and its effectiveness?

PS what are you using to pull the graphics that you are posting?

 

[moses]

Moses this is a great thread for someone like me who hasnt traded for years and just getting back into it. I used to use the SMART trading system by Joe Salmon (think thats his name)and had some success with it. I dont know whether to get it again because of the fantastic infomation you and other users of this site provide. Keep up the great work. Could you also chart up IDL tonight as I see large volume of buyers after chinese mining deals.

Hi Petervan,

attached is IDL's chart tonight, but please don't assume I can continue to post at this rate; I have a slightly unreal week atm where I am working a long night shift with almost else nothing to do. This won't continue. Also this service is not expensive; it paid for itself with my first trade, plus it is on free trial atm.

 

[mrWoodo]

Thanks Moses! Very interesting, I haven't come across an indicator that uses market depth before. As they say in their tutorial link - dummy bids, illiquid stocks, big blue chips and undisclosed bids will skew the results.

Mind you, if I had invented something like this, I'd have kept it to myself

 

[moses]

Moses,

Have you paper traded this yet, or back tested it to find a probability of whether it works or not??

Kennas

Its not a magic bullet, its just another clue. The probability of it working without further research is sufficiently low to ensure that you will lose money. Its usefulness for decision making is limited; the individual *must* interpret the data in a wider context if he is to make money from this tool.

 

[moses]

Do you think it is more predictable on stocks like BLT that have been quite volitile rather than more blue chip type stocks?
Have you found any correlation on stock type and its effectiveness?

Its not effective for blue chips, and its dangerous on very thinly traded stocks.

In theory the sweet spot should be the sorts of stocks where a few people in the know will accumulate for weeks confident that something good will soon happen; ie, new miners, new tech stocks, biotechs etc. Just what we want.

PS what are you using to pull the graphics that you are posting?

The Gimp. A screen/window dump then crop and save. A real nuisance.

 

[moses]

TRF went up again, by 19% today. Again it shows all the classic signs of long time smart money accumulation; the back line has been firmly >1 until tonight.

What next?

a) Another jump?

b) Consolidation?

c) Correction?

The chart alone suggests b or c, but...DYOR.

 

[moses]

See SLM thread here for weekend analysis here , followed by potential breakout thread today here for a very promising outcome.

 

[moses]

CMO is not only very bullish on the SMA, but a closer look at the depth chart shows that the best quality support is very close to the SP; VERY nice.

 

[moses]

CCS is looking great on the SMA, but a closer look at the depth shows appearances can be deceiving. Most of the smart money is still back in the 55c-66c area. The SMA does not tell you where the smart money is, so its important to check it out yourself (thats the DYOR bit).

This may be a great stock, it may keep rising, but the SMA bull signal isn't as strong as it first appears.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Moses,

How is AVO and URA looking on youre Indicator, if youre not too busy that is

Cheers.

 

[moses]

it may be early days, but with a sudden rise like this in the SMA, LOD has surely got to be worth a closer look.

Let me know what you find.

 

[moses]

Moses,

How is AVO and URA looking on youre Indicator, if youre not too busy that is

here 'tis

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Thanks Moses.