NCM - Newcrest Mining

[Sean K]

Another merciless smash to the share price down to $27.6 this morning.
I am considering of entering NCM for longer term. Can anyone offer a risk reward analysis on this stock on entering at this juncture ?

An RR analysis? Not exactly sure how to give a quantifiable qualifiable answer there. If I was trading it, I'd be selling on this breakdown. Something seems to be up wouldn't you think? Or, is it just correcting how every other 'blue chip' has during the correction? Whatever the case, it's looking pretty damn scarey to me!

Perhaps you need to make a call as to whether you think gold has peaked or not, and perhaps therefore, NCM?

 

[reece55]

An RR analysis? Not exactly sure how to give a quantifiable qualifiable answer there. If I was trading it, I'd be selling on this breakdown. Something seems to be up wouldn't you think? Or, is it just correcting how every other 'blue chip' has during the correction? Whatever the case, it's looking pretty damn scarey to me!

Perhaps you need to make a call as to whether you think gold has peaked or not, and perhaps therefore, NCM?

Not knowing anything really about the fundamentals (other then the fundies for the POG, NCM itself that is), I can only echo Kennas here on the technicals - the chart looks BAAAADDDD... Double top, plus potential head and shoulders all pointing to a target of about $20....

However, check of substantial shareholder movements has the Capital group increasing their stake as late as 24 April 08 and in large parcels. My view - stay away until she settles down a bit, it's fallen too quickly for a short and looks too damaged technically to warrant a long... definitely sidelines material on NCM for me...

Cheers

 

[josjes]

Yeah, gold is at critical juncture this week. At best, it will go sideways with the critical support of 870 hold up for the next few months. At worst it will smash that support and go into 780-800 zone. My thiniking is that entering at this point in time is more like gambling.

However looking at the XAU monthly chart is giving me some food for thought. I picked up this chart courtesy of kitco site.

The ROC is momentum indicator and peak with exuberance at an impulse move up. But clearly this is not the case with the March high. It looks to me that we are in a corrective phase and perhaps at the bottom before blasting off to big wave THREE.

The situation right now is probabaly comparable to the period of April 02 - Dec 02, where it moved sideways up before continuing its uptrend.

Comments ?

 

[M34N]

Another merciless smash to the share price down to $27.6 this morning.
I am considering of entering NCM for longer term. Can anyone offer a risk reward analysis on this stock on entering at this juncture ?

I'm in a similar situation, I already had some NCM at $31.00 last week, thinking about buying in some more. Holding this for the long term though so not concerned.

Like others have said, would wait before going in further. Personally, I'm looking at least until after the Fed statement on interest rates in the US and their view on inflation, will probably set the tone for the POG for the near term anyway.

Still feel NCM has been ridiculously oversold though, I believe it's around 10% down for the past 2 days alone and from its high of $40~, it's a very steep fall down (over 30%) when you consider gold has only fallen approx 15% itself. Seems that it's just the masses factoring in a 'worst-case scenario' gold price given a rebound in the US dollar. Will rally hard if the gold price rebounds, keep your eye on it.

 

[josjes]

Anyone notice that there was this price gap of $26.5-$27 back in September 07 right after the right issues. Well today this price gap has been filled.
The 'gambler' instinct in me urged me to take a position this morning
Just 30% of my intended NCM position.

 

[M34N]

Wouldn't hold my breath, gold price still very vulnerable, mostly just the speculative types investing hoping on a rebound in the POG given the FOMC decision tonight. Could go either way here, was a technical rebound today I would say, the stock had been sold down way too much like I said last night.

Lets see where we go from here!

 

[M34N]

This one's had a bit of a fall since the start of the month, POG hasn't really fallen THAT much to justify it falling from $33 to $25 now... kind of disappointed in this as the other gold majors haven't gone down this far, and NCM has followed down on high volume consistently over this time. It's not far, only another $3 down from its 52-week low too.

 

[Sean K]

NCM was really smashed due to the Apache gas fire. They've won alternate energy supply, but it's really going to eat into their profit at Telfer. They need another major asset to off set the perception Telfer is everything for them. (Why not buy LGL and have 40m oz to dig up?)

Chart wise, bounced off support, probably aligned to POG bounce off $880 ish, and break through $940. Looking at breakout now which may align with a POG break up through $950. Bit of resistance here and we need the world to align for it to occur. ie, POO keep rising, USD keep going down, Middle east tensions remain. All conspiring for POG rise. Otherwise, breakthrough will fail IMO.

 

[Sean K]

Chart wise, bounced off support, probably aligned to POG bounce off $880 ish, and break through $940. Looking at breakout now which may align with a POG break up through $950. Bit of resistance here and we need the world to align for it to occur. ie, POO keep rising, USD keep going down, Middle east tensions remain. All conspiring for POG rise. Otherwise, breakthrough will fail IMO.

Bouncing off that support identified and showing unusal strength in this market. Could there be some major buying doing that I have expected for the past 3 years? Maybe not.

Approaching major resistance around $32.

 

[M34N]

Bouncing off that support identified and showing unusal strength in this market. Could there be some major buying doing that I have expected for the past 3 years? Maybe not.

Approaching major resistance around $32.

Yeah noted the heavy volume yesterday, over 6m traded off memory, up over 6%, and today managed to hold on to some gains but closed below $30 after hitting intra-day high of $31.50

Unsure on this one kennas, lower volume today around 3m, still above its 2m~ average. Can't be too greedy I suppose on a day like today it's nice to see some green anywhere, was actually expecting NCM to close negative today to be honest, seems to be the trend lately.

Roll of the dice here IMO, but still holding (who knows why...)

 

[Sean K]

Yeah noted the heavy volume yesterday, over 6m traded off memory, up over 6%, and today managed to hold on to some gains but closed below $30 after hitting intra-day high of $31.50

Unsure on this one kennas, lower volume today around 3m, still above its 2m~ average. Can't be too greedy I suppose on a day like today it's nice to see some green anywhere, was actually expecting NCM to close negative today to be honest, seems to be the trend lately.

Roll of the dice here IMO, but still holding (who knows why...)

Yeah, I've been holding expecting POG to recover at some stage and this and LGL are the best 2 goldies on the market IMO, and perennial takeover targets.

NCM is supposed to be upgrading is resources in the coming weeks. I think they telegraphed it pretty well in their investor roadshow presentation in London recently.

Check out these two slides, as to why I continue to hold.

Resource base of what? 150m oz?
Cash costs where? $225. Cripes. I don't know how they're keeping costs down in this environment.

Now unhedged, if POG goes parabolic, then it should do ok...

Chart wise got through $32, and with gold getting through $950 comfortably, should do OK again today.

And last line of the summary of overview is of interest. More acquisition?

POGs gotta have a break soon though. It's run $100 in just a couple of weeks. Since WP called it going to $700 actually. Gollly.

 

[MRC & Co]

POGs gotta have a break soon though. It's run $100 in just a couple of weeks. Since WP called it going to $700 actually. Gollly.

lol, yeh, you would think POG would have to rest soon. Then again, watching some of the other commodity runs in recent times, there is no guarantee. Parabolic appears the norm these days.

One thing that got me with EW was it was pointing down for POG and the broader indices. With gold being a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty (the exact current environment), then wouldn't the fall of one, likely mean the rise of the other?

NCM is a great company, really being held back by the equities crunch (one reason I have swapped to the direct underlying) and the relative strength of the AUD............?

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

POG correcting with oil as we thought it might.

Almost shorted gold but am just not on the ball at the moment.

Instead I thought I'd top up a few NCM on what looks to be an oversell on what wasn't a bad report. The disruption at Telfer was already factored in I thought. Forecasting the significant upgrade to resources in the final report.

Hope I haven't misjudged gold as long term up and I'm out in the streets sweeping in a few months...

 

[MRC & Co]

POG correcting with oil as we thought it might.

Almost shorted gold but am just not on the ball at the moment.

and I'm out in the streets sweeping in a few months...

Yep, certainly did correct and may be overdone now. Still would like to see a bit more strength from POO though, next support is not until about 122.50.

Off the ball? I think most are, hard to catch anything at the moment, only scalpers would be doing well. I'm currently experiencing my largest drawdown in 2 years after a good start to the month!

Might be sweeping some streets myself soon! Toast and water for dinner I think.

Was waiting for this bank bounce and fully expected it, unfortunately, I have been left on the sidelines, asymmetrical leverage and all that!

 

[Sean K]

POG back to $880 and could find it's way to $860 support, or worse considering the sentiment to commods at the moment. Looks to be a general switch into financials. Mr Market thinks they've been oversold perhaps, or world recession is a certainty and commods will continue down.

But hang on, is gold a commodity? Aren't the gold bulls telling us it's money?



$26 support could be dashed today, as $2.75 was smashed on LGL.

 

[refined silver]

NCM is a great company,

The fly in the ointment with NCM was always the huge hedge position which was a long way underwater. I know they said they were closing it out and did a big cap raising and dilution, but a few other major hedgers (overseas) have not closed out all the positions they said they would also. The hedges get charged to the costs of the mine they are held against. Looking at the skyrocketing costs graph just posted, I wonder some of the cost increases are hedge related.

 

[M34N]

Anyone watch the CSPA of NCM today?

I don't have a chart as E*Trade is acting up, but about -30 cents at 4:00PM then +80 cents at 4:10PM (change of $1.10) to close at $27.40.

How many shorts got closed to cause that kind of swing? End of month position shuffling?

 

[Aussie_23]

What on earth happend to the price today? Down over 9% without any negative news. Could somone please explain?

 

[aacantona]

Price of gold currently ~US$800 - has sustained some pretty large falls over the last few days in response to slowdown in Europe/US.

 

[Sean K]

Hope I haven't misjudged gold as long term up and I'm out in the streets sweeping in a few months...

Long term POG still trending up, but gold stocks are not.

They have been leading POG down for some time.

Not sure if that means they are oversold, or that it's the way POG is headed...

NCM breaking those support lines was long term up trend over IMO.

Same situation for LGL.

Difficult times for gold producers, and worse for developers and explorers.

Long term buy and holders market nightmare.