NCM - Newcrest Mining

Sean K · 14 December 2006

Have you got that bottle of HOG yet spi, he he.

NCM has been a faily good example of support and resistance lines and breakouts etc, if you've followed the thread then you'll see how it has generally perfomed and been bouncing off resistance and support lines everywhere. The green circle is where I thouhg it was a confirmed break from the downward trend and heading back up.

It has just played to script again by bouncing off support around $24.50ish, and now heading back up towards all time high which seems a real possibility.

POG consolidating between $620-630 providing the impetus for the next run to $640+.

Of course, who can say whether POG gets smashed tonight because of a careless staement by the Feb, or European banks saying they will dump millions of tons on to market!

On the other hand, $US might tank, and the Middle East could errupt at any time to halt oil flows and drive people back to the yellow metal again.....

Gold gold! Go NCM!

Sean K · 19 December 2006

NCM update, probably just for my own amusement. :

Battling hard to breach all time high. Still in the zone to get there, heading towards the green circle. Go the green circle NCM. Go!!!!!!

Anyone else actually own this, or am I on my own?

This is actually my largest holding now, oh, except for Platinum Asia Fund. Got too much of that.

Aimjoy · 20 December 2006

Kennas,

I am also holding Newcrest. Bought 7,000 shares on 28/11/06 at $24.55 on 100% margin with underlying put option with a strike of $24.50 in place.

Then wrote call option with a strike of $25.00 for expiry tomorrow - looks like I went a bit short and will have to buy it back

Cheers,
Aimjoy

Sean K · 8 January 2007

I've lost about a half a years salary in the past week and I think it's been all in this. It was going so well too until that damn POG went from $640 to $600 in 2 days!

From $18 to $27 in 5 months and then kazam! Back to $24 in 4 days......My poor head. I think most of the run was actually attributed to takeover rumours that have been circling this since about 1923.....

Can you send that bottle of HOG back to me please Spitrader??

Still, on the flip, perhaps another buying opp comming up if POG settles and fights it's way back to $620 and beyond. I hope those EW dudes have it all wrong and we have seen the last of $500s.....

Should be some support at $24.00, along with POG at $600.

Kauri · 8 January 2007

kennas said:
From $18 to $27 in 5 months and then kazam! Back to $24 in 4 days......My poor head. I think most of the run was actually attributed to takeover rumours that have been circling this since about 1923.....

.

On the upside though, if you follow gaps there are a lot of large ones there just begging to be filled.

Sean K · 8 January 2007

Kauri said:
On the upside though, if you follow gaps there are a lot of large ones there just begging to be filled.

Yeah. I don't think I've seen a stock gap down so much on 3 consecutive days. Maybe there was in May, or the last crash.....

Sean K · 10 January 2007

kennas said:
Should be some support at $24.00, along with POG at $600.

Has held, but off 2% when POG was steady.

Under $24.00 and I'm short. That will probably coincide with POG dipping under $600.

spitrader1 · 10 January 2007

kennas said:
Has held, but off 2% when POG was steady.

Under $24.00 and I'm short. That will probably coincide with POG dipping under $600.

sorry kennas, a man such as myself doesnt let a bottle of HOG sit around for too long, if you know what i mean!!

Sean K · 18 January 2007

POG up, NCM off 4%....hhhmmm...Something I don't know about I think. Perhaps a downgrade, again. Very unusual price action. Definately no HOG for you spi..

Kauri · 18 January 2007

kennas said:
POG up, NCM off 4%....hhhmmm...Something I don't know about I think. Perhaps a downgrade, again. Very unusual price action. Definately no HOG for you spi..

Hopefully not much further...

spitrader1 · 18 January 2007

kennas said:
POG up, NCM off 4%....hhhmmm...Something I don't know about I think. Perhaps a downgrade, again. Very unusual price action. Definately no HOG for you spi..

i just saw that, very strange indeedy

Sean K · 18 January 2007

I think my weekly chart gives a similar count to you Kauri.

Maybe a bounce from support lines at $24.00, $21.50 ish, and then $18.00 (hopefully not there)

Kauri · 18 January 2007

kennas said:
I think my weekly chart gives a similar count to you Kauri.

Maybe a bounce from support lines at $24.00, $21.50 ish, and then $18.00 (hopefully not there)

Hi Kennas
Yes, the only thing is if it is a W4 and she falls through the 22.65 W1 then it's back to the drawing board..

Sean K · 18 January 2007

Can anyone confirm that 700K shares went through at about 3.14pm, at $25.30, when the stocks trading at $24.30, and what this might be.

Off market buy?

$17m??

Just curious. Still learning about off market buys and these sorts of anomalies and also - what it might mean!

Gundini · 25 January 2007

Feeling for you today Kennas

What do you make of NCM after the report?

Understand if you don't reply just yet, I know all about the house of pain...

Best wishes

spitrader1 · 25 January 2007

Gundini said:
Feeling for you today Kennas

What do you make of NCM after the report?

Understand if you don't reply just yet, I know all about the house of pain...

Best wishes

kennas away drinking tequila and coronas in me'cico

Dr Doom · 25 January 2007

Bit of shocker actually, as indicated in the share price today - down nearly 10%. The report as below -

"25 January 2007
Newcrest Mining Limited today released its December 2006 Quarterly Report.
Group cash costs for the quarter were A$384/oz (A$219/oz). The major reason was lower spot copper prices resulting in provisional pricing adjustments
Telfer power supply disruption resulted in production short fall of 13,000 -15,000oz gold and 500-850t copper
Telfer supergene Ore Reserve downgraded by approximately 0.5 Moz gold and 19,000t copper. Review of underground reserve estimate to be finalised in July 07 and primary open pit reserve estimate to be finalised in July 08.
Telfer production guidance revised to 675,000 - 700,000oz gold and 31,000 - 33,000t copper for 2006/07 and 800,000oz gold +/- 5% and 35,000t copper +/-5% in 2007/08.
Further high grade gold intersections recorded at K2 in Kencana
Group quarterly gold production was 384,285oz (379,701oz) at a cash cost of A$384/oz (A$219/oz). The total cost was A$507/oz (A$348/oz). Group copper production was 22,023t (23,101t)."

Gundini · 25 January 2007

spitrader1 said:
kennas away drinking tequila and coronas in me'cico

Probably better off anyway, just hope it's the bottom for his sake. 10% does seem harsh all the same.

bingk6 · 25 January 2007

kennas said:
Under $24.00 and I'm short. That will probably coincide with POG dipping under $600.

Hope your short Kennas.

Dukey · 26 January 2007

Wow NMC still falling - down to 21.30 so far today. From high of almost $27 in Dec. Dunno much about this stock or whats behind the fall but...
When`s is gonna stop? $20 ?? $18 ??
And more importantly - when`s it gonna BOUNCE ???

NCM - Newcrest Mining

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