NCM - Newcrest Mining

[Bintang]

I notice that NCM directors went on a bit of a buying spree at end of June.
Collectively they bought 66,000 shares at an average price of 9.78:

D Mercer 26-Jun 5,000 9.41
R Knight 27-Jun 20,000 9.87
R. Lee 27-Jun 3,000 10.00
P. Aitken 28-Jun 5,000 9.70
J. Sparks 28-Jun 14,000 9.82
V. Gauci 28-Jun 9,000 9.65
G. Robinson 28-Jun 10,000 9.83

 

[oldblue]

I normally take note of directors' buying and selling.

Unfortunately, although NCM and other goldies look to be cheap, the price of gold is the chief determinant of these companies' share prices and those directors have no better insight into the future price of gold than the rest of us.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Selling the rally? Evidently still a few want to get out. Until that is absorbed it's going to be a bumpy ride higher?

 

[Knobby22]

I wouldn't want in purely because I expect a class action from US investors. This leak is a major international embarrassment for the ASX.

 

[ftw129]

Selling the rally? Evidently still a few want to get out. Until that is absorbed it's going to be a bumpy ride higher?

(Technically speaking) It has made a higher low but there still doesn't seem to be much evidence of capitulation yet.

If NCM can establish another higher low above the $11.32 area, there would be more grounds for entry (for a short term trade).

$6-8 is still a very real possibility which is almost 50% down from here! Looking at the trend, it's more likely to go down than up.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Two weekly charts

1) Perfect measured move or ABCD.
2) Fib retrace of 50% is likely imo. (= $16.92)

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

(Technically speaking)

$6-8 is still a very real possibility which is almost 50% down from here! Looking at the trend, it's more likely to go down than up.

I would agree ftw.

It is what we used describe as in downtrend, all we need is massive volume today and next week for your target to be attainable.

gg

 

[GKLC]

Can someone explain to me/give me reasons why Newcrest Mining is going up today (4.40% rise) whereas it just posted a 58 percent fall in its underlying profit from $1.084 billion to $451 million? How does that even work??

#Confused/Beginner at Stock Trading seeking opinions on this stock. I'm only doing paper trading right now.

Feedback appreciated

 

[tech/a]

Low risk play.
Move stop to B/E
as soon as you can
and sit back and relax.

Youll either get taken out or become a wealthy genius!

Why does there have to be a reason.
So far doing very well from Uncles Original play!

 

[skc]

Can someone explain to me/give me reasons why Newcrest Mining is going up today (4.40% rise) whereas it just posted a 58 percent fall in its underlying profit from $1.084 billion to $451 million? How does that even work??

#Confused/Beginner at Stock Trading seeking opinions on this stock. I'm only doing paper trading right now.

Feedback appreciated

The underlying profit reported was largely in line with expectations so while it looks bad compared to the last period the share price has already moved to take that into account.

Gold futures up strongly since Friday and most gold stocks are up strongly today as a result.

 

[Gundini]

Can someone explain to me/give me reasons why Newcrest Mining is going up today

Feedback appreciated

Somebody may have a better answer, but, a stock may disappoint to the downside, but the downside may be less than expected, or less than what has been priced in already, therefore the stock goes up. It is a bit like, "this stock is not as bad as we thought"?

Also, the Gold price have been fairly solid, rising at the moment.

 

[rbgmauq]

NCM has an ongoing P/E of 11.77, which indicates that it is undervalued. The technical indicator is turning a buy with the 15.365 target price in short term. http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=ncm&c=ax

 

[Gringotts Bank]

12.44 should be the top for the day, lower tomorrow.

 

[GKLC]

The underlying profit reported was largely in line with expectations so while it looks bad compared to the last period the share price has already moved to take that into account.

Gold futures up strongly since Friday and most gold stocks are up strongly today as a result.

Thanks for the feedback SKC!

- - - Updated - - -

12.44 should be the top for the day, lower tomorrow.

You were pretty close with the prediction Gringotts, it was 12.48!

 

[GKLC]

NCM has an ongoing P/E of 11.77, which indicates that it is undervalued. The technical indicator is turning a buy with the 15.365 target price in short term. http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=ncm&c=ax

Thanks for sharing your response and that site too!

- - - Updated - - -

Somebody may have a better answer, but, a stock may disappoint to the downside, but the downside may be less than expected, or less than what has been priced in already, therefore the stock goes up. It is a bit like, "this stock is not as bad as we thought"?

Also, the Gold price have been fairly solid, rising at the moment.

Sounds logical, thanks for the explanation Gundini!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I think I said "lower tomorrow" because I sold and was trying to convince myself. Not so sure now.

 

[jdenhaan]

These guys are now trading at a decade low. Gold prices are low, but not at a decade low by a very wide margin. With some cost cutting, I don't see why NCM can't remain profitable in the longer term?

Also, the current share price pretty much covers a lot of the pain ahead. Any reason not to snap this one up while it's cheap?

 

[McLovin]

These guys are now trading at a decade low. Gold prices are low, but not at a decade low by a very wide margin. With some cost cutting, I don't see why NCM can't remain profitable in the longer term?

Also, the current share price pretty much covers a lot of the pain ahead. Any reason not to snap this one up while it's cheap?

The more interesting observation is that the price they receive for their product has tripled/quadrupled in the last decade and yet the share price of NCM is at a decade low. Seems like a pretty cr@ppy business to be putting your hard earned dollars into, even by the low standards of most resource stocks.

Make your life easy and avoid these sand traps.

 

[alexandro]

These guys are now trading at a decade low. Gold prices are low, but not at a decade low by a very wide margin. With some cost cutting, I don't see why NCM can't remain profitable in the longer term?

Also, the current share price pretty much covers a lot of the pain ahead. Any reason not to snap this one up while it's cheap?

For a short term trade, no reason not to snap it up jdenhaan. I have been buying pass three days and especially on Friday at $8.50. Medium term, I think 7's is a possibility. I will back up the truck once again in the 7's if that eventuates.

 

[jdenhaan]

The more interesting observation is that the price they receive for their product has tripled/quadrupled in the last decade and yet the share price of NCM is at a decade low. Seems like a pretty cr@ppy business to be putting your hard earned dollars into, even by the low standards of most resource stocks.

Make your life easy and avoid these sand traps.

The question is whether that decade low is a function of market sentiment or business fundamentals.