NCM - Newcrest Mining

[Uncle Festivus]

Well I guess this is all we can go by now - to each their own level of pain.....and 'value'.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Nice bounce and positive volume dynamics today.

One of the main arguments in support of buying Newcrest shares is the company’s large gold reserves, estimated to allow production for the next 40 years. It is the largest singly held reserve in the world and with a battered share price several analysts are talking up the possibility Newcrest could be subject to a takeover bid by a rival company.

Bargain of the year?

 

[CanOz]

I wouldn't be jumping in quite yet, but there's a case for three drives to a low with some divergence...

 

[tech/a]

Nice bounce and positive volume dynamics today.

One of the main arguments in support of buying Newcrest shares is the company’s large gold reserves, estimated to allow production for the next 40 years. It is the largest singly held reserve in the world and with a battered share price several analysts are talking up the possibility Newcrest could be subject to a takeover bid by a rival company.

Bargain of the year?

Low risk play.
Move stop to B/E
as soon as you can
and sit back and relax.

Youll either get taken out or become a wealthy genius!

 

[notting]

1. Never listen to analysts.
2. It’s all well and good to have huge reserves but if they can’t sell them at a profit the thing is worth zero
3. It has been an so badly run the whole board and management should be replaced.
4. Gold price has made a new low and the people like Goldman are shouting it down all over the market. Buffet recently called that he wouldn’t buy gold if it were 800oz not good for sentiment the market listens to him whether you agree or not.
5. The Gold play that was supposed to be an inflation hedge has been deemed a mistake. As inflation means money will earn appreciating interest in bank accounts and even stocks where as gold earns nothing.
6. The safety play against financial collapse and inflation is deemed over
7. China could be on the verge of the biggest economic collapse the world has ever seen. Whilst China shuddered gold got hammered further. Not sure why, perhaps thinking China might have to sell all it’s gold? The safety play on that did not help gold. China won't be buying gold in that scenario.
8. There doesn’t seem to be a reason to buy gold anymore and the market is spelling that out. Most notably because the inflation hedge was furphy, inflation or not.

This is what I see as the risks.
It is interesting however that the gold stocks are rallying despite a new low savage sell off on gold yesterday. Probably a belated response to China stabalising it's banking system and weaker US$.
Is there volume in todays spikes? Not yet!

The only reason you should buy it is if you don't think QE is going to end any time soon!

 

[skc]

Low risk play.
Move stop to B/E
as soon as you can
and sit back and relax.

Youll either get taken out or become a wealthy genius!

Moving to breakeven... What's the average overnight gap for something like NCM for the last 3 months? Don't misprice your risk.

 

[skyQuake]

Moving to breakeven... What's the average overnight gap for something like NCM for the last 3 months? Don't misprice your risk.

2.056%

Upgaps 1.8% avg
downgaps -2.4% avg

Obviously there are a few outlier gap down days that were quite nasty.

Gap fill at $13 anyone

 

[skc]

2.056%

Upgaps 1.8% avg
downgaps -2.4% avg

Obviously there are a few outlier gap down days that were quite nasty.

Gap fill at $13 anyone

Thanks SkyQ. Catch one of those outlier down gaps and one's breakeven stop becomes back breaking.

 

[skyQuake]

Thanks SkyQ. Catch one of those outlier down gaps and one's breakeven stop becomes back breaking.

IG's GSLOs for NCM are back to 5% limit away. Could be useful for those that worry about overnight crap.

I believe the GLSO prem is 30bp for NCM which is actually reasonable.



..why I've almost talked myself into entering some fresh longs!

 

[CanOz]

Looks like a fail today...

 

[tech/a]

Looks like a fail today...

Why do you read that as a fail?

B/E lets say hypothetically you bought at $9.62 at the high of yesterday as it was taken out.
You could now place a stop at B/E (well I would ) You want to be with momentum and stay with it.

It needs to prove momentum.
Your right these moves are generally tested to the low side.
You should be OK with a gap down from here.

 

[CanOz]

Why do you read that as a fail?

B/E lets say hypothetically you bought at $9.62 at the high of yesterday as it was taken out.
You could now place a stop at B/E (well I would ) You want to be with momentum and stay with it.

It needs to prove momentum.
Your right these moves are generally tested to the low side.
You should be OK with a gap down from here.

I was thinking more of a trade entry long at the break of today's high, which also coincides with the longer term trend line that you can see on the intraday screen shot. I would have liked to see the market prove itself by taking this level out first...if it has another go and the pullback isn't over, it'll likely just "jump the creek" anyway, gapping over resistance on the open....

Lets see...

I'm not trading this, just discussing how you could play it thats all.

CanOz

 

[ftw129]

In the past week the buyers sitting in the market depth have easily doubled whereas the sellers have halved. It was the exact opposite 2 weeks ago....

Does anyone use the market depth to time entries and exits or as a tool for their decision making? (I can imagine a lot of punters would)

 

[skyQuake]

In the past week the buyers sitting in the market depth have easily doubled whereas the sellers have halved. It was the exact opposite 2 weeks ago....

Does anyone use the market depth to time entries and exits or as a tool for their decision making? (I can imagine a lot of punters would)

Market depth is a lagging indicator imo. Real money hits the market, and gets pulled at the end of the day.

 

[Country Lad]

Does anyone use the market depth to time entries and exits or as a tool for their decision making? (I can imagine a lot of punters would)

Yes, but not just from a look at how many bids and how many offers which is pretty well meaningless, particularly when any bids or offers 10% away from the current price are irrelevant.

I use an algorithm taking into account buy versus sell pressures in the stack and the buy and sell pattern of the trades. Changes as trades occur gives an indication of market sentiment. A snapshot at today's close by the system does in fact show positive market sentiment, but this could change at tomorrows open of course.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[willstor]

9.60 to 11.13 was a decent bounce. Could still go back and break below 9 now.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Biggest one day move in a long time. Interesting viewing.

 

[tech/a]

Boom

Now its away!

 

[skc]

Boom

Now its away!

You should see the 2nd tier goldies like PRU, EVN, SBM, MML etc.

They are actually better shorts now until the rest of the day imo... got a little bit of PRU @ 59.5 to test the water.

 

[skc]

You should see the 2nd tier goldies like PRU, EVN, SBM, MML etc.

They are actually better shorts now until the rest of the day imo... got a little bit of PRU @ 59.5 to test the water.

Out at breakeven. Ran out of patience and screen space to keep watching it...