NCM - Newcrest Mining

[tech/a]

Didnt quote you quoted the "screaming buy"

See the confusion but thought your body of info was in sync with my own views.
I should have been clearer.

 

[skc]

It was a screaming buy, those who bought it are screaming.

See the confusion but thought your body of info was in sync with my own views.
I should have been clearer.

All good. You made me go back throuhg my own posts to make sure I didn't call it as such..

 

[Uncle Festivus]

A screaming buy? It will be if there's no taper at all and the gold shorts have to cover......

 

[tech/a]

A screaming buy? It will be if there's no taper at all and the gold shorts have to cover......

Agree.
but until then---------

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Agree.
but until then---------

May have already started? As for NCM, until the seller(s) who continually keep the sell side volume over 900k are done then not much upside in the short term?

 

[RandR]

Anyone done a valuation on NCM lately?

I posted this in January on this thread. This valuation still holds true.

The balance sheet for NCM in the latest annual report is sick barf barf barf. Current liabilities were more then twice current assets ... NCM has next to no cash in the bank (in terms of the size of the company). Despite having record 'operating cash flow' they spent a billion dollars more then they earned in the financial year of 2012 on construction development and drilling. They financed the dividend payments to shareholders by debt...

I don't understand why people purchase a business to gain exposure to a commodity .. the reality is NCM is in the cash business, the business of producing $$$$ something its not doing quite well or producing a lot of at the moment. NCM is a perfect example of why extreme caution should be had around any commodity business.

 

[tech/a]

If NCM dropped to $6-8 region it would be a double screaming buy and I think you would have to be lighting quick to buy shares at that price before it bounced up like a super ball.
25 years ago Newcrest was primarily an explorer but with a little bit of production (and it was called Newmont Australia. Only became Newcrest in 1990 after merging with BHP Gold) .Today it is a major gold producing company.
The most recent occassion when the share price was ~$6 was in 2003. At that time Newcrest was producing around 700,000 oz gold and 60,000 tonnes copper per year . Today it produces around 2 million oz gold and 76,000 tonnes copper year. Its gold resources and reserves have each approximatley tripled since 2003 and its copper resources and reserves have increased five-fold.
Newcrest has recently been in an expansion phase which is coming to an end after which production will gradually ramp up to over 3 million oz gold per year.
Profit in 2003 was $168/oz gold produced. In 2012 profit was $493/oz gold produced.
I will not bother going into other financials except that at the current share price NCM is already below book value.
Newcrest is already a screaming buy at around $14.50. Market sentiment and languishing gold price might still send it down a bit more but the downside risk is far smaller IMO than the upside potential.
Disclosure: I am accumulating NCM aggressively at current prices.

I posted this in January on this thread. This valuation still holds true.

The balance sheet for NCM in the latest annual report is sick barf barf barf. Current liabilities were more then twice current assets ... NCM has next to no cash in the bank (in terms of the size of the company). Despite having record 'operating cash flow' they spent a billion dollars more then they earned in the financial year of 2012 on construction development and drilling. They financed the dividend payments to shareholders by debt...

I don't understand why people purchase a business to gain exposure to a commodity .. the reality is NCM is in the cash business, the business of producing $$$$ something its not doing quite well or producing a lot of at the moment. NCM is a perfect example of why extreme caution should be had around any commodity business.

So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
Everyone has access to the exact same information?

 

[CanOz]

So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
Everyone has access to the exact same information?

Because we are human...

 

[galumay]

So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
Everyone has access to the exact same information?

Information is just data, it still needs to be interpreted and we all interpret it differently. People tend to read what they want to see into financial reports and other information, positive confirmation.

In that regard its no different to TA, the biggest hurdle any system or strategy has is human nature!

 

[McLovin]

So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
Everyone has access to the exact same information?

Why are some people good at technical analysis and some aren't, they have access to the exact same charts? Why is my golf swing so cr@p but my mate hits off scratch? Why, why, why?

 

[tech/a]

Ok get it
Very few are good at it.
Even less know how to
Trade profitably with it.

It's too grey for me
Personally I like the back and
White of T/A.

 

[galumay]

Ok get it
Very few are good at it.
Even less know how to
Trade profitably with it.

It's too grey for me
Personally I like the back and
White of T/A.

We are veering dangerously off topic, but I am amused by your description of TA as black and white, as someone with a mathematical background its more like voodoo to me! The concept defies logic, attemting to predict future events based on historical data is counter intuitive and illogical from a rational perspective.

Mind you i think a fair part of FA is voodoo too, at the end of the day we are all trying to find means to work an irrational market to our advantage and history suggests there is not a difficult answer, let alone an easy one - or we would all be rich.

 

[tech/a]

We are veering dangerously off topic, but I am amused by your description of TA as black and white, as someone with a mathematical background its more like voodoo to me! The concept defies logic, attemting to predict future events based on historical data is counter intuitive and illogical from a rational perspective.

Mind you i think a fair part of FA is voodoo too, at the end of the day we are all trying to find means to work an irrational market to our advantage and history suggests there is not a difficult answer, let alone an easy one - or we would all be rich.

Not really interested in all.

If your attempting to predict without understanding
How to apply in both forms your doomed to failure.

It's not about being right
It's about being profitable.It's pretty clear that few in BOTH disciplines know how to be profitable.
NCM is a perfect example
As is PEN
RED
To name a few.

 

[CanOz]

Back on topic please, it Saturday!

 

[willstor]

I got out at 24 now I'd look into entering at 9.60 if it went there... With a view to it bouncing to 12.50ish.
I'd like to wait and see just how badly gold goes from here though...the likes of RMS could be finished by September IMO

 

[ftw129]

I got out at 24 now I'd look into entering at 9.60 if it went there... With a view to it bouncing to 12.50ish.
I'd like to wait and see just how badly gold goes from here though...the likes of RMS could be finished by September IMO

Is $9.61 close enough?

 

[cbc]

Gee NCM is practically in free fall ATM.

After yesterdays onslaught

Some people must me feeling it

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Is $9.61 close enough?

If you look at a chart going back to 1995, the next support is around $5.

Buying in a parabolic downtrend is pure guess work.

I'd be waiting.

 

[ftw129]

If you look at a chart going back to 1995, the next support is around $5.

Buying in a parabolic downtrend is pure guess work.

I'd be waiting.

Thanks GG but I wrote that just as NCM bounced off $9.61 (intraday) after the previous poster wrote he was going to buy at $9.60. I was just being a bit cheeky...

As I said a few pages ago, the $6 region is my target but in saying that, I will not be buying anything unless I see it stabilize and start heading back up.... That is, if I buy at all. Not really in the business of buying shares anymore.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks GG but I wrote that just as NCM bounced off $9.61 (intraday) after the previous poster wrote he was going to buy at $9.60. I was just being a bit cheeky...

As I said a few pages ago, the $6 region is my target but in saying that, I will not be buying anything unless I see it stabilize and start heading back up.... That is, if I buy at all. Not really in the business of buying shares anymore.

Thanks ftw129.

Wise words.

I am 16% Aus Shares, 84% Cash, and waiting for some stabilisation on XAO.

gg