NBN Rollout Scrapped

[medicowallet]

So you're saying you could start a capital intensive business from scratch and would generate a profit pretty much immediately?

If there's a loss in the 2014-15 FY will you be as critical?

QF is looking to break even within 3-5 years with their Jetstar Japan rollout. Woolworths was looking at around 5 years to break even with their Masters rollout (if you read the excuses they raised about the higher than expected losses you'd be shocked), and they're not nearly as CAPEX heavy as the NBN.

capital expenditure does not equal revenue.

revenue is so far out of whack with the expenses it is not funny. The rollout is so far behind it is not funny.

The best thing was to sack the lot of the clowns and start again.

I have started a capital intensive business before and it broke even within 2 years... how long has the NBN been around for?

MW

 

[drsmith]

NBN Co's rollout maps have been updated to now show just two categories, Services available and Build commenced.

http://www.nbnco.com.au/when-do-i-get-it/rollout-map.html

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/...ut-on-fibre-20131030-2wfcr.html#ixzz2jBLjhEOI

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/362333,half-a-million-nbn-fibre-connections-in-limbo.aspx

Also of interest is the following graphic on the rollout,

http://www.mynbn.info/stats

If those stats are correct (they're unofficial), the slowdown after reaching the downward revised June 30 target is telling.

 

[sydboy007]

capital expenditure does not equal revenue.

revenue is so far out of whack with the expenses it is not funny. The rollout is so far behind it is not funny.

The best thing was to sack the lot of the clowns and start again.

I have started a capital intensive business before and it broke even within 2 years... how long has the NBN been around for?

MW

Wow. You started a company that covers pretty much the whole of Australia, purchased a couple of satellites, built ground stations, well into the process of building 121 POIs and well into the FSAN rollout and broke even in the second year. Gosh they should have hired you to get the rollout done. We could be fibered by Christmas with your abilities.

How many years will it take the FTTN to break even? 2 years?

There's an 18 month gap between NBN in an area ON and Telstra basically cutting services and forced migrations for those who were stuck on their old ADSL plans. I dare say revenue will start to take off pretty quickly over the next couple of years mainly due to this. People seem to already be migrating of their own free will at pretty decent rates.

Other issue I have is the NBN was forced to rollout services in the least profitable areas. If we'd left the remote areas to fend for themselves on the Howard era Satellite scheme and focused all the rollout in the capital cities I dare say the CAPEX would be far lower and the revenue a good deal higher. Unless the nationals roll over, MT is going to be in the same situation.

 

[sptrawler]

Wow. You started a company that covers pretty much the whole of Australia, purchased a couple of satellites, built ground stations, well into the process of building 121 POIs and well into the FSAN rollout and broke even in the second year. Gosh they should have hired you to get the rollout done. We could be fibered by Christmas with your abilities.

How many years will it take the FTTN to break even? 2 years?

There's an 18 month gap between NBN in an area ON and Telstra basically cutting services and forced migrations for those who were stuck on their old ADSL plans. I dare say revenue will start to take off pretty quickly over the next couple of years mainly due to this. People seem to already be migrating of their own free will at pretty decent rates.

Other issue I have is the NBN was forced to rollout services in the least profitable areas. If we'd left the remote areas to fend for themselves on the Howard era Satellite scheme and focused all the rollout in the capital cities I dare say the CAPEX would be far lower and the revenue a good deal higher. Unless the nationals roll over, MT is going to be in the same situation.

FTTN or FTTP it doesn't matter, neither will break even in the next 20 years.
That's conditional that it is intergrated enough to be a sellable proposition, which I doubt will ever happen.
The enormous size of the project, will end up strangling it to death and that goes for both models.
Some of the smaller country towns won't be there when the NBN goes through, and some of the towns already done will be gone after the NBN has been installed.
IMO a dumb model that adds no real value, stick to cities and major country towns also priorities CBD's and high volume industries first.
But we have been saying that for a few years now.
Still I can't complain, the holiday house has a box on the outside wall and no one inside the property.

 

[medicowallet]

Wow. You started a company that covers pretty much the whole of Australia, purchased a couple of satellites, built ground stations, well into the process of building 121 POIs and well into the FSAN rollout and broke even in the second year. Gosh they should have hired you to get the rollout done. We could be fibered by Christmas with your abilities.

How many years will it take the FTTN to break even? 2 years?

There's an 18 month gap between NBN in an area ON and Telstra basically cutting services and forced migrations for those who were stuck on their old ADSL plans. I dare say revenue will start to take off pretty quickly over the next couple of years mainly due to this. People seem to already be migrating of their own free will at pretty decent rates.

Other issue I have is the NBN was forced to rollout services in the least profitable areas. If we'd left the remote areas to fend for themselves on the Howard era Satellite scheme and focused all the rollout in the capital cities I dare say the CAPEX would be far lower and the revenue a good deal higher. Unless the nationals roll over, MT is going to be in the same situation.

When I was considering my business, I did due diligence, I worked out budgets, forecasts for potential circumstances, and took a conservative approach with my assumptions.

I thought I would break even between 1-3 years.

I happen to remember some people spruiking that the NBN will be fantastic with returns of blahblagblag, will rollout in whatever time, and with a takeup of humptydoo.

If Rudd hadn't made this up on the fly, perhaps proper planning would have been undertaken, and this bs waste of money wouldn't be such a cluster....

I do agree that it should have been rolled out in areas that would be most economically viable, you can blame Labor for that.

MW

Perhaps if you had ever achieved something of substance you would have less tolerance for incompetence?

 

[drsmith]

NBN Co's rollout maps have been updated to now show just two categories, Services available and Build commenced.

http://www.nbnco.com.au/when-do-i-get-it/rollout-map.html

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/...ut-on-fibre-20131030-2wfcr.html#ixzz2jBLjhEOI

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/362333,half-a-million-nbn-fibre-connections-in-limbo.aspx

Also of interest is the following graphic on the rollout,

http://www.mynbn.info/stats

If those stats are correct (they're unofficial), the slowdown after reaching the downward revised June 30 target is telling.

Further to the above, 307,800 premises in the new dataset have ready for service (RFS) dates (according to one of the articles above) and these go out to September 2014 (Whirlpool).

As of October 21, Real Premises Passed (RPP) was 228600. Exactly how that translates into RFS can only be guessed at, but the interim statement of expectations from September 24 offers a guide,

A key priority will be to reduce the backlog of 66,000 premises passed by the NBN Co network which can’t currently obtain a service. This includes the majority of apartments, schools and businesses where the fibre network has been rolled out.

http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/m...im-nbn-statement-of-expectations#.UnDrUDaQ9aQ

Overall, this suggests the FTTP brownfields rollout will likely be less than 500,000 by the end of September 2014, unless more are subsequently added to the new dataset for RFS by that date.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

When I was considering my business, I did due diligence, I worked out budgets, forecasts for potential circumstances, and took a conservative approach with my assumptions.

I thought I would break even between 1-3 years.

I happen to remember some people spruiking that the NBN will be fantastic with returns of blahblagblag, will rollout in whatever time, and with a takeup of humptydoo.

If Rudd hadn't made this up on the fly, perhaps proper planning would have been undertaken, and this bs waste of money wouldn't be such a cluster....

I do agree that it should have been rolled out in areas that would be most economically viable, you can blame Labor for that.

MW

Perhaps if you had ever achieved something of substance you would have less tolerance for incompetence?

Mw you are wasting your breath on these pointy headed geeks, raised on a socialist teat.

The difference between them and US innovators such as Jobs is that the latter was a bottom up capitalist exercise built on hard work and risk.

The NBN is a crazy stunt designed by people, Rudd and Conroy, with no business experience and no skin in the game.

gg

 

[Calliope]

Mw you are wasting your breath on these pointy headed geeks, raised on a socialist teat.

The difference between them and US innovators such as Jobs is that the latter was a bottom up capitalist exercise built on hard work and risk.

The NBN is a crazy stunt designed by people, Rudd and Conroy, with no business experience and no skin in the game.

gg

Game, set and match GG. Your thread has been validated. Congratulations.

 

[drsmith]

Some more rollout figures,

A total of 65,000 homes had been passed with fibre optic cabling since July 1, reaching a total network of 229,398 premises as of October 27.

However, a third of those homes and businesses are currently unable to connect to the NBN as they are in apartment buildings or shopping complexes, which require additional work.

The update indicates some 3000 homes in new developments received connections during October, with a total 62,242 homes and businesses now using fibre connections across the country.

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/new_rollout_statistics_highlight_VrHvagU1lrEOEl3ImwUHBI

NBN Co's weekly update,

http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam...weekly-progress-report-week-ending-271013.pdf

 

[sptrawler]

FTTN or FTTP it doesn't matter, neither will break even in the next 20 years.
That's conditional that it is intergrated enough to be a sellable proposition, which I doubt will ever happen.
The enormous size of the project, will end up strangling it to death and that goes for both models.
Some of the smaller country towns won't be there when the NBN goes through, and some of the towns already done will be gone after the NBN has been installed.
IMO a dumb model that adds no real value, stick to cities and major country towns also priorities CBD's and high volume industries first.
But we have been saying that for a few years now.
Still I can't complain, the holiday house has a box on the outside wall and no one inside the property.

Forgot to mention, the holiday house next door has a box on the wall and no one living there also.
What a fiasco.

 

[So_Cynical]

My FTTH internet connection was installed today

Only 3 Mbps but unlimited up and downloads (subject to reasonable use etc) i believe this speed has been achieved via a AON (Active optical network) but not 100% sure on that point..however i am sure that its Fibre coming out of the wall because i have photos.

I need photos because im in Aust and not in my Apartment in the Philippines where the Fibre has just been installed, i have a FTTH connection in a 3rd world country at least 2 or more likely 3 or 4 years before i could have a similar (inferior) service in Australia.

$40 per month with Landline and some free calls....we are so far behind in this country, seriously its pathetic and getting worse as the noalition gets going with the NBN hatchet job...happy to be well on my way out the door.
~

 

[drsmith]

FTTH approved for another 150,000 premises.

http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/gov...nections-approved-for-nbn-20131031-hv2bn.html

The additional 150,000 premises were previously part of a group of 645,000 premises where NBN Co had done its preparation work but had not yet issued construction contracts.

Mr Turnbull said in late September that NBN Co would finish construction at 300,000 premises where contracts had been signed, that 645,000 were yet to be decided, and that 900,000 were to be delayed pending the outcome of a strategic review, due on December 2. The 900,000 figure has now increased to about 1.4 million.

NBN Co spokesman Andrew Sholl said NBN Co would start issuing build instructions for the 150,000 premises, which were scattered around the country, from next week until February to ‘‘minimise disruption to the construction industry’’

With regard to the status of the current rollout including the nature of the contracts, the following part of the above article is also an interesting read.

However, sub-contractors have been warning the lack of work coming from NBN Co’s construction partners since the election could lead to job cuts. NBN Co has blamed Telstra’s asbestos removal program for the delay because construction work cannot start until asbestos is removed. Telstra halted remediation work for nearly three months this year and resumed it gradually from mid-August, leading to a ‘‘significant backlog’’ of work.

A spokeswoman for Telstra said it wasn't to blame for the backlog because it was "well ahead of schedule when the stop work commenced" and has worked constructively with NBN Co to ramp back up and avoid delays.

Meanwhile, it has emerged that that NBN Co’s construction contracts were flexible enough for the government to change the type of work done while still keeping its pre-election promise to honour existing commitments. For example, changing the work from fibre-to-home connections to a fibre-to-the-node rollout.

Oh, the irony.

My bolds.

happy to be well on my way out the door.
~

Cheerio.

 

[medicowallet]

Mw you are wasting your breath on these pointy headed geeks, raised on a socialist teat.

The difference between them and US innovators such as Jobs is that the latter was a bottom up capitalist exercise built on hard work and risk.

The NBN is a crazy stunt designed by people, Rudd and Conroy, with no business experience and no skin in the game.

gg

Thanks gg.

Sometimes I get on my high horse and start blowing my own trumpet, without tempering my emotion.

MW

 

[drsmith]

Link to weekly progress report by NBN Co,

http://www.nbnco.com.au/about-us/media/news/weekly-rollout-metrics.html

 

[sptrawler]

I need photos because im in Aust and not in my Apartment in the Philippines where the Fibre has just been installed, i have a FTTH connection in a 3rd world country at least 2 or more likely 3 or 4 years before i could have a similar (inferior) service in Australia.

$40 per month with Landline and some free calls....we are so far behind in this country, seriously its pathetic and getting worse as the noalition gets going with the NBN hatchet job...happy to be well on my way out the door.
~

Yes I can understand your frustration, in the Philippines, you have fibre to the home.
However you have no sewage or garbage collection and poor welfare, hostpital care and education.

I can't understand why all the asylum seekers don't follow you over to the Philippines, they obviously haven't heard about the internet speed difference.lol

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

My FTTH internet connection was installed today

Only 3 Mbps but unlimited up and downloads (subject to reasonable use etc) i believe this speed has been achieved via a AON (Active optical network) but not 100% sure on that point..however i am sure that its Fibre coming out of the wall because i have photos.

I need photos because im in Aust and not in my Apartment in the Philippines where the Fibre has just been installed, i have a FTTH connection in a 3rd world country at least 2 or more likely 3 or 4 years before i could have a similar (inferior) service in Australia.

$40 per month with Landline and some free calls....we are so far behind in this country, seriously its pathetic and getting worse as the noalition gets going with the NBN hatchet job...happy to be well on my way out the door.
~

It's called slave labour, and corruption.

If your internet providing mates in the Philippines were paying taxes, and their workers were in a union, you wouldn't be able to get away with such cheap rates.

It sounds like exploitation to me.

gg

 

[So_Cynical]

Yes I can understand your frustration, in the Philippines, you have fibre to the home.
However you have no sewage or garbage collection and poor welfare, hospital care and education.

I'm all right Jack, my apartment complex has everything and yet 500 meters down the road people are living under cardboard...its weird for sure

I can't understand why all the asylum seekers don't follow you over to the Philippines, they obviously haven't heard about the internet speed difference.lol

Highlights the difference between the people wanting to not live under cardboard with the people who have never lived under cardboard....the 3rd world is such a contrast to the developed, in the Philippines Infrastructure is not a political issue, its to important for that.

------------------

It's called slave labour, and corruption.

If your internet providing mates in the Philippines were paying taxes, and their workers were in a union, you wouldn't be able to get away with such cheap rates.

It sounds like exploitation to me.

gg

^ Its all true/real...just as my FTTH connection is.

Its partly cheap because the apartment developer did an exclusive deal with the Filipino equivalent of Telstra, 1200 units locked in to one provider, no choice what so ever...just happy that Fibre is my only choice. the noalitions NBN is only going to give most Australians 1 choice, inferior Fibre/copper internet.

 

[drsmith]

Another piece in the puzzle on the issue of the rollout progress in Tasmania and the costs.

From Malcolm Turnbull,

Prior to the election I said that the Coalition would ensure the NBN Co honoured all of its existing contractual obligations including those with respect to the Tasmanian rollout.

I also said that we did not have access to the terms of those contracts.

The NBN Co has advised me that it has a contract with Visionstream to run fibre past about 190,000 premises in Tasmania, of which around 18,000 have been already passed by Visionstream making a total of 32,000 passed in Tasmania.

That contract specifies certain rates at which Visionstream will be paid for its work.

I am advised by NBN Co that Visionstream has slowed down its work considerably, passing only 2,000 premises since the 15 of July. The NBN Co further advises me that Visionstream now complains that the rate to which it previously agreed is too low and is not enough to enable it to get the job done.

Visionstream has asked the NBN Co to substantially increase the rate for this work - in other words it has asked for more money to complete the project.

The NBN Co is currently in commercial discussions with Visionstream about this matter and the Tasmanian rollout is receiving close consideration in the work on the Strategic Review.

Honouring an agreement means complying with its terms, but for a contract to be performed both sides have to be be prepared to do that.

http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/it-takes-two-to-tango-nbn-rollout-in-tasmania#.UnOcIDaQ9aQ

 

[Shaker]

Lol

Well I got a good look at the state of the copper network in my area today. My neighbor placed a fault with Telstra for a noisy line. I got home with safety fence around my pit and a contractor visible down the road.

I walked down to chat with him and he showed me the mess he was dealing with. Basically the joints have perished and they strip cables below the joint to access the pairs. They then wrap in see thru plastic tape and jobs done.

The contractor fixed the problem and explained he was not allowed to repair properly as he would not get paid for it.
I live in a new suburb which is 17 years old.

God help the Libs when they try their FTTN model. They are plain crazy to attempt it.

Shaker

 

[drsmith]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...bn-rollout-risk/story-e6frgago-1226751590262#

I haven't seen the full article above from The Australian above, but the teaser is below.

A CABINET briefing document obtained by The Weekend Australian confirms the Rudd government was aware of significant risks to the National Broadband Network rollout and that delays would strip $1.4 billion in revenues throughout the election campaign.

The document revealed an assessment by consultants KPMG -- who had been engaged by the then Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy Department -- warning that the ramp-up to achieve rollout targets was "presenting a significant risk to the project" and that this "has not been achieved in any international comparison". - See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/labor-knew-of-nbn-rollout-