NAB & ANZ now "dogs with fleas"!

[Nicks]

I own just 2 stocks, you can see what I hold on my blog and how they've done. I record what I do as I do it.

ANZ is now back at prices that it was in 2001. Is that not a dog of a performance? I believe, maybe wrongly, that the headwinds facing ANZ and other financials over the next couple of years will mean that they will continue to have dog like performance for a while yet.

Just to be clear, I'm sure you'll be able to point out in the coming months times when the stock rallies and you could have made profits by trading it and that I was wrong. However as an 'investor' that doesn't really interest me.

Dhukka - you cant have it both ways. Now you are protecting yourself from comment if the stock does go up, but there will be an 'I told you so' if it goes down. Like how you enjoyed berrating me for BBI.

I dont think it matters either way whether you are an investor, or a trader. As long as you succeed. This forum caters for all, investors, traders and more and being negative toward one strategy is narrow minded.

I dont criticise or ridicule people for their opinions (as you have done for me and others). Good luck with your 'investing' and i'll check out your blog when I have some time.

 

[Muschu]

.....I dont think it matters either way whether you are an investor, or a trader. As long as you succeed. This forum caters for all, investors, traders and more and being negative toward one strategy is narrow minded....

I have to agree that this forum surely intends to cater for investors of all types. I see no issue with that whatsoever. Most posters are very genuine in their comments and many have been very helpful to me.
What I find unpleasant are inferences, some of which are presented in quite a clouded fashion, that "my way is better than yours" or "why didn't you do [or why aren't you doing] what I did?"
And isn't it OK to admit failure as well as success? If trading was that easy I guess we'd all be living ridiculously exhorbitant lifestyles -- or, better still, be in a position to support people in real need.
Just my thoughts.
Best wishes
Rick

 

[Nicks]

Well put Rick.

How are things going for you? the market has been hard since you started to become active.

Did you buy into any ANZ or NAB?

 

[dhukka]

Dhukka - you cant have it both ways. Now you are protecting yourself from comment if the stock does go up, but there will be an 'I told you so' if it goes down. Like how you enjoyed berrating me for BBI.

I dont think it matters either way whether you are an investor, or a trader. As long as you succeed. This forum caters for all, investors, traders and more and being negative toward one strategy is narrow minded.

I dont criticise or ridicule people for their opinions (as you have done for me and others). Good luck with your 'investing' and i'll check out your blog which I assuming is the one posted as your signature for all to see.

On the contrary. If ANZ has bottomed and therefore doesn't trade anywhere near $10 in the future how could I possibly protect myself from comment? I will have been dead wrong.

My point is that, as with all bear markets you will have rallies of the short sharp kind where beaten down stocks can rise 10%+ in a day, or 25% in a month, that doesn't to me prove that a call about the medium term outlook for the stock is false.

I completely agree that it would be narrow minded to think people can only make money using one method. Obviously many poeple do make money trading stocks and good luck to them, I have no problem with that, I'm just not one of them. I stick to what I know and what works for me. Again though, your comments re: ANZ did not seem to be calling for a trade. Your comments seem to fly in the face of current evidence that all the bad news is out there. If you take my challenges to your view of the world as over the top criticism then so be it.

 

[Muschu]

Well put Rick.

How are things going for you? the market has been hard since you started to become active.

Did you buy into any ANZ or NAB?

OK thanks Nick. I have learned a lot, some of it a bit late, but I can cope. Some excellent professional suggestions helped. Have moved far more into cash. [I'm retired]. Still have a handful of CBA. Major holds are NVT, BHP, WOW, WPL, QBE. All except the last are in front [today] These are stocks I have had for between 1 and 5 years. Tomorrow who knows. I also have small holds in LEI and WOR where I am down but comfortable with that. Even among retirees, approaches differ. Imagine if we were all the same?

 

[Nicks]

1 August 2008:

Here's a predicition, ANZ will be closer to $10 than $15 before all the bad news is out there and I wouldn't be surprised to see it in single digits. NAB won't be much higher with the amount of crap they have yet to mark to market. Dividend cuts and capital raisings are all very much on the table.

ANZ Closing Price 1 August 2008: 16.17.

ANZ Current Share Price: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/EquitySearchResults.jsp?method=get&template=F1001&ASXCodes=anz

 

[dhukka]

1 August 2008:



ANZ Closing Price 1 August 2008: 16.17.

ANZ Current Share Price: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/EquitySearchResults.jsp?method=get&template=F1001&ASXCodes=anz

And your point is Nicks? I'm wrong because ANZ rallies for a few days? Puhlease, as noted above, short sharp clearing rallies are common in bear markets. We've seen this movie before, the worst is over and it's time to pile into financials. And then what happens? It turns out it wasn't. Eventually the bottom callers will be right of course but they've got a few more bottoms to call IMO.

 

[Nicks]

Don't get so defensive. There is no 'point', just thought it would be interesting to track.

Just out of curiosity though Dhukka - your call of ANZ @ $10 or single digits - what timeframe do you give that?

 

[dhukka]

Don't get so defensive. There is no 'point', just thought it would be interesting to track. Just out of curiosity though Dhukka - your call of ANZ @ $10 or single digits - what timeframe do you give that?

You're right, there is no point to your post. Anyone can track the share price every couple of days. So if there was a point to your post it was obviously because you thought you had some victory because the share price rose for a couple of days. Sad really.

I don't do exact time frames because quite simply I can't. People like motorway attempt such things so I'll leave it to them, what I said was;

Here's a predicition, ANZ will be closer to $10 than $15 before all the bad news is out there and I wouldn't be surprised to see it in single digits.

Bad news in the form of writedowns and reduced earnings expectations I expect to see for Aussie Banks for at least the next 12 months. When the market decides to discount these things I have no clue, it could be in 6, 12 or 18 months time. That said, if ANZ has not traded below $12.50 within the next 12 months I will be happy to admit to being wrong.

 

[moXJO]

I wonder how many people were scared into selling at the lows with all these type's of threads.

 

[Nicks]

Dhukka - As I said, no point other than to track the SP relative to your call...... didnt give a timeframe on it, asked you for that. The rest you extrapolated for yourself.

Keep up with the 'Puhlease' and 'Sad Really' negative language directed at me in your posts. It doesnt make me look like a goose. Courtesy and maturity have nothing to do with how smart you may be or think you may be. Anyway.... sticks and stones lol. Good luck and we'll see how ANZ goes.

 

[AnDy62]

I think that for example NAB is trading higher than it was a few weeks ago despite that bad, bad news means that things are pretty much priced in, at the moment.. though I could still forsee lower prices if things detoriate further in credit markets

 

[aacantona]

Initial post is a horrendous overreaction - expect to see it move around no more or less than the index!

 

[treefrog]

NAB has broken the 8yr support level of $24 this morn on good volume - $20 looking good

 

[treefrog]

NAB has broken the 8yr support level of $24 this morn on good volume - $20 looking good

.....and ANZ still looking decidedly unwell but the $2.50 level should hold, maybe even the $8 level

 

[Bushman]

NAB is now trading at $18.50 odd!! That is now a historic yield of over 10%.

Talk about factoring in the end of the world as we know it.

 

[dhukka]

Here's a predicition, ANZ will be closer to $10 than $15 before all the bad news is out there and I wouldn't be surprised to see it in single digits. NAB won't be much higher with the amount of crap they have yet to mark to market. Dividend cuts and capital raisings are all very much on the table.

Anyway back to the topic and less about me. ANZ is strongly pushing growth into Asia (yes they got greedy with US subprime). Is there anything other than the current news out that makes you think ANZ will hit $10? Do you think it is their domestic exposure or their US exposure that will cause this? Do you disagree that Australian banks are not profitable? Given that domestic housing price demand is still high and that the banks cover their asses significantly with LMI, I am not convinced that this will cause much of a contribution to domestic concerns. My 2c.

1 August 2008:



ANZ Closing Price 1 August 2008: 16.17.

ANZ Current Share Price: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/EquitySearchResults.jsp?method=get&template=F1001&ASXCodes=anz

Well that didn't long, not even 6 months and ANZ is now trading closer $10 than $15, still holding Nicks?

 

[Julia]

Well that didn't long, not even 6 months and ANZ is now trading closer $10 than $15, still holding Nicks?

I've been waiting for this post, Dhukka.

Nicks, do you think it has bottomed yet?

 

[kengaikl]

Professional investors that I know dumped their NAB and ANZ stock months ago whilst another acquaintance closed his term deposits as soon as the NAB announced it's sub prime exposure last week; which was previously talked down to the point of being inconsequential!

Today Wayne Swann called a press conference to say that both banks were safe...... last time a treasurer did that was here in Victoria with Pyramid; not long after the press conference Pyramid collapsed and depositors and share holders lost nearly everything.

The problem is that if NAB and/or ANZ collapse, after all the sub-prime crises according to numerous US experts going to get a lot worse before it gets better, these investors and depositors will lose a lot and blame everyone except themselves! Indirectly the economy then suffers further as many of these people then draw on social security and and/or spend a lot less.

WHY THE HELL DO PEOPLE CONTINUE TO HOLD STOCK IN COMPANIES WHEN THEY CLEARLY HAVE PROBLEMS WHICH THEY HAD PREVIOUSLY ALMOST DENIED?

AND WHY WOULD ANYONE LEAVE MONEY IN A BANK WHICH HAS MAJOR PROBLEMS AND WHICH MAY CLEARLY BECOME WORSE?

IF YOU'RE ONE OF THESE PEOPLE, PLEASE, I IMPLORE YOU, HAVE A GOOD LONG THINK ABOUT WHAT A REASONABLE PERSON SHOULD DO? SURELY YOU DON'T BELIEVE THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL GUARANTEE YOUR LOSSES!

If a few incompetent companies are subsequently removed from the corporate gene pool, all the better!

Gekko would be calling ANZ and NAB more than dogs with fleas, he'd be looking for a throat or two to rip out!

I believe you are one of those people who have lost so much money that you are hoping that the entire market collapses because that's the only outcome that'll make you feel better.

I don't think ANZ and NAB will go under nor do i believe they are worth while investing in at the moment as there is not much upside to banking shares.

However if there is a bank that i believe will go under, it'll most likely be MQG.

 

[CanOz]

I've been waiting for this post, Dhukka.

Nicks, do you think it has bottomed yet?

This calls for a chart!

I have a friend who has been asking when its a good time to buy the banks again......all i told him was "Not Yet!"

Cheers,


CanOz