MQG - Macquarie Group

[Mofra]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

So much for Highly-Geared / Leveraged investments I guess?
Only time will tell!

Macquarie are sitting on a massive pile of cash having just completed placements, they also have active treasuries in many countries so funds are not a problem.

As much as profits could be hurt (just like any fundie) by some softness in world markets, I'm certainly not expecting a major Enron/HIH like decline.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Captain,

Mac bank was highly over priced that's why it was sold down.

Look's like the market has decided on a fair value for the stock anything that rises in a unnatural angle will come back down to it's true range after time that is one of the basics of supply and demand.

Mac has found support above it's Trend line and after a little more confrontation, I will look to go long.

84 is a break of it's trend so that would suggest more downside.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

took a CFD long on MBL today.

Found support on its trend line bounced off with very strong volume and broke out of its minor resistance.

lets see how it moves.

 

[barnz2k]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Drop in over 5% from yesterdays close, and Volume is a HUGE 6,516,767.

Whats going on? mass sell offs??

EDIT: ahh - NOTICE OF CHANGE OF INTEREST OF SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

At an educated guess, I think they would have quite a bit of exposure in US subprime mortgague as well, so it's not too suprising that they've lost about 5% today.

 

[mime]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.

 

[Bushman]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.

Share price is following what is happening to 'buy out' firms in the States.

Quote from an article in The Age:

'Among the hardest-hit stocks was one of the buy-out firms that had gone public. Shares of the Fortress Investment Group dropped more than 6 per cent, to $US19.31.'

Just using this as an example, not saying it will fall 6%. Seeing it has already fallen 5% on Friday, I would not think it would fall another 5% on Monday. That would be quite a correction.

Just a word of caution for Monday.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.

What value have you worked out for them? I'm sure a few analysts would like to know your method.

 

[justjohn]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.

I think MBL wont be the only stock under value on Monday:there will be plenty of others up for grabs

 

[reece55]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

What value have you worked out for them? I'm sure a few analysts would like to know your method.

I'm with UF here mime, picking a bottom here for MBL could cost you many pennies.

You have to remember what MBL does - it has a very large inventory of held for sale assets (i.e. investments in businesses) that it looks to flog/recycle through M&A and public floats. Due to the re-pricing of risk that has taken place, it is going to be a whole lot harder for MBL to flog these to the market in the near future. Add to that a bulk of their revenue has come from deal making - do you think the level of deals they processed last year compared to the year coming is bigger or smaller?

MBL is a big no no ATM - but this is just my opinion....

Cheers
Reece

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

I'm with UF here mime, picking a bottom here for MBL could cost you many pennies.

You have to remember what MBL does - it has a very large inventory of held for sale assets (i.e. investments in businesses) that it looks to flog/recycle through M&A and public floats. Due to the re-pricing of risk that has taken place, it is going to be a whole lot harder for MBL to flog these to the market in the near future. Add to that a bulk of their revenue has come from deal making - do you think the level of deals they processed last year compared to the year coming is bigger or smaller?

MBL is a big no no ATM - but this is just my opinion....

Cheers
Reece

Hey Reece hope you were cash or close to it when the selling really got going.

I agree with Reece and UF,

MBL and the other main players anything in top 5 in value normaly take it the hearest MBL RIO really took a beating last week rio shead 10$ in the blink of an eye. the current trend in MBL on the short term is negative, I would stay far away from it but dont stop watching it!

 

[waz]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Having a look at what happened to MBL style banks in America, they didnt fare too badly.
Morgan Stanly down a bit, Merryl Lynch, went up in after hours trade, and Goldman Sachs only down about 0.5%. GS are launching some $20bil fund to invest in debt, previously expected to be only worth $12bil

The only investment banking style company to do badly was Lazard, down 3.42%

Considering MBL was around 89.50 before the big sell off, which i think was pretty low to begin with. I struggle to see why it should drop by more than 10%.
Its forward looking PE ratio is still pretty good. Especially when compared to BNB and AFG.

Ill have to play around with some graphs, but it would be good to see how far from their peaks the US banks have fallen. Looks around 20%, which is inline with the way MBL has fallen from 98 to almost 80.

 

[Lachlan6]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

A bloke in the States writes an article on MBL (apparently the same guy who uncovered Enron, the similarities between the two companies being ah, hardly anything) and the stock plunges! Amazing how this environment causes mass psychology to panic at the slightest thing.

Which brings me to the question of, is this plunge a great opportunity. Technically, I would be waiting for a sign of reversal now (i.e double bottom, bullish divergence on lower low followowed by a breakout of some sort etc). However it may have hit some type of support here, being resistance turned support from Oct to Dec last year. Notice also that in the last four days of trading, they have all finished in white candles, indicating that despite the drops there is at least some follow through buying.

Emphasis again will not touch this one in the current market climate UNLESS it can show some sign of reversal. At the moment far away from that, but interesting after todays downward move.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Emphasis again will not touch this one in the current market climate UNLESS it can show some sign of reversal. At the moment far away from that, but interesting after todays downward move.

I agree Lach. Couldn't trust buying any support levels at the moment. Fear is winning the game. People with cash are going to have a field day in a little while. This is one on my long term list along with WDC once (if) sub prime dust settles.

 

[rub92me]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Dropped (un)comfortably through the first resistance around 78 - next stop 75. But like Kennas and Lachlan6 - I won't be using my cash just yet to buy this. Must be interesting scenes in the Mac boardroom today. No big bonuses this round??

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Dropped (un)comfortably through the first resistance around 78 - next stop 75.

Yep, it almost looks like a bottomless pit. I finally bailed out this morning, and won't be touching it for a while.

 

[mime]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

How can the guy mark similarities between Mac and Enron? Does he have proof of fraud? Because that's what happened at Enron.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

I agree Lach. Couldn't trust buying any support levels at the moment. Fear is winning the game. People with cash are going to have a field day in a little while. This is one on my long term list along with WDC once (if) sub prime dust settles.

I'm not sure if anyone should be getting into financials for quite a while, as this is without doubt the top for them. Only one way from there.

I was paper shorting this a few weeks back and thinking it could go to 79 quite easily. I thought that was too ambitious. But as it's turned out to be not, I reckon this is going through $67 on the same analysis. You'd be spewing doing that cap raising at $90. Lol!

 

[Ken]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

This is exactly what the market needed in my opinion.

Bringing back some value to stocks.

I think a lot of stocks were getting ahead of themselves.

I avoided the majority of blue chip companies but am now comfortable to set up a margin loan for some of the big banks for a 5 year term...

MBL
NAB
WDC
WOW

They are what I am looking at...

 

[Sean K]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

I think some analysts pumping MBL will be short changed end of year. Or, maybe it's been overdone?

1249 [Dow Jones] Citi analyst Mike Younger keeps Buy rating on Macquarie Bank (MBL.AU) and repeats A$122.88 price target, reckons today's share price reaction to concerns in credit markets is overdone. "The broad consensus view is that there has been an overreaction as far as credit spreads go globally, and it would seem that the market is shooting first and asking questions later," Younger says, noting U.S. investment banks have also been hit. Says MBL's model not under threat at this stage, says deal flow may be slightly impacted, although not to same extent as private equity deals. MBL down 7.5% at A$76.29.