MQG - Macquarie Group

[Sean K]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

There you go Pacer. Might be a good play mate.

In the Australian:

MacBank heading to $70
September 21, 2006
ANALYSTS believe Macquarie Bank shares are likely to return to the $70 mark after it bumped up its first-half profit guidance.......

 

[bowser]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

What price are you targeting Pacer? I agree with Kennas... $70 looks to be achievable in the short-term. Holding out for more through sept\oct could be a bit risky though.

 

[pacer]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

I recon this could be a bigger than expected run.....me thinks $ 90 is acchievable with the mining stocks looking weaker, but it may take a little while.

I read somewhere that $120 was a target price....might have been the ferret, but that was a while ago. Whatever, it's looking Awesome and as of now is 3.2% up....went long CFD 3000MBL and am real happy with today's result, can afford another holiday till the next bit of good/bad news hits a company.

They dont call it the 'Millionaires Factory' for nothing!

I was actualy on a bender with my mates all night till 7.30 in the morning, playing poker, and watched the early news saying they expect 40% increase in profits.....I always make plays on stuff that hits the TV as that has the biggest impact on a share....AWB was another nice short I made big $ on, among others.

I will hold for a bit and see where it goes...up I expect....cant see any downside.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

I recon this could be a bigger than expected run.....me thinks $ 90 is acchievable with the mining stocks looking weaker, but it may take a little while.

I read somewhere that $120 was a target price....might have been the ferret, but that was a while ago. Whatever, it's looking Awesome and as of now is 3.2% up....went long CFD 3000MBL and am real happy with today's result, can afford another holiday till the next bit of good/bad news hits a company.

They dont call it the 'Millionaires Factory' for nothing!

I was actualy on a bender with my mates all night till 7.30 in the morning, playing poker, and watched the early news saying they expect 40% increase in profits.....I always make plays on stuff that hits the TV as that has the biggest impact on a share....AWB was another nice short I made big $ on, among others.

I will hold for a bit and see where it goes...up I expect....cant see any downside.

Well all the brokers do have high price targets

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 382.3 464.7 471.2 481.3
DPS 215.0 250.0 268.0 294.5

ill post the updated forecasts soon

thx

MS

---------------

MBL MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED Overnight Price: $64.51
ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - The broker notes management''s update of likely 20% earnings growth for the half year is in line with its forecast, so there is no change to its estimates. These estimates are at the top of the market range currently.
Valuation is $82.00.


Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$17.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - Management has guided to a least 20% increase in profit (ex-MGQ) for 1H07 leading the broker to upgrade earnings by 5% in FY07 and 4% in FY08.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$15.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight - The 40% (incl MGQ) update to earnings has actually led the broker to adjust forecasts down slightly as they were ahead of the market. This includes taking into account that history suggests 40% means 50%.

Target price is $95.84 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$31.33 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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AddedMerrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk - Having recently moved to Buy and upgaded earnings increased guidance has not led to further changes, although the broker notes guidance is now slightly ahead of forecasts.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$6.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy , High Risk - The broker notes earnings guidance from management implies a result higher than it had expected, causing it to lift its earnings forecast for FY07 by 2% to 502.9c.
It expects this update and likely announcements on asset sales should be enough to renew market interest in the stock.



Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$21.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

 

[pacer]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

All good on the home front then.....keep up the good work Mike...a graphists view would add to my confidece....I'm pretty baisic on that side of things...but I do have a general understanding...the news pays as good as going to a $3000 course...tv news, and your posts have kept me off the dole/benefits.....make more than I ever did in the mines....ruined my back a few years ago...but refuse to bow down and bludge off the government...to bloody proud......do a few deals an wheels here and there ''''''wheels'n'deals''''' and this keep me entertained.

LUV YOU ALL FOR THIS SITE Can't imagine where I' be without you all!!!!!!!

 

[bowser]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

do a few deals an wheels here and there ''''''wheels'n'deals''''' and this keep me entertained.

LUV YOU ALL FOR THIS SITE Can't imagine where I' be without you all!!!!!!!

Pacer, you sound like Arthur Daley... "Its a nice 'lil earner"

The charts seem to say if price holds above $70, and overall market conditions are positive the price targets might be reached ($80-90).. If the US has a sell off in the next month however a reversal would be more likely.

 

[pacer]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Bowser you are right on the button....OI 'ave turned ita a bit orv aain ARFUR!

Most of what I do is a little more legal though....buy stuff REAL CHEAP and pass it on to others who want it, at a higher price, doing well with getting computers and stuff from the auctions and floggin' it to the punters, an the odd mota too!........CFD's are a great tool, and was real surprised to see I could sell high then buy back low.....what a scam.....most punters I tell about CFD's can't understand the concept, an' recon I'm pullin' an Arfur......well they're all listening a bit more to me now!.....I just bide my time an' hit the big scores.....usualy try to go short or take two positions at once....one long and one short of equal value to make sure I don't get caught out on a bad day....that is my Number one rule....but rules are made to be broken....If it is a real good play then I'll break rule#1.

Always look on the bright side of life....Monty Python...

Looking back on my time in the mining game, I can honestly say I was wasting my talents....I'm an Arfur at heart...but it has given me a better insight to how a minerals/oil company will perform, and the odd good tip from a mate.....my flatmate just went up north on a drilling rig, and have a few other mates still in the mining/oil industry......see what I mean?

Ok Guv ..... MBL up a little again today.....set stop loss at $500 profit.....wierd way to set one but that's my system, and raise it as it rises....play a little online poker too.

Keep, up the good work....you punters are my living.....Know wot I mean!

 

[bowser]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Nothing wrong with a 'lil bit of Arthur, long been a fan. I lived around the corner from where they shot the Winchester Club. Had to laugh every morning I walked past. Dont know about VAT's though

Next week will be interesting for MBL. Held up nicely on a bad day.

 

[pacer]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Hey...any one using the chat button?...I hardly eva see anyone there!
are there any specific times they chat,,,awesome look to it! and would luv an online chat to someone!

 

[pacer]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Slow but steady ...now...waitin til tomorrow...still up from last week ,,,wiaiting for a turn....TLS down tgain...pooooooooo

 

[pacer]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Slowwwww.....but up soon?

 

[nelly]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Pacer check your messages....

 

[pacer]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Hoping MBL will crack the $70 mark for a decent run up to new highs....preferrably today or I may bail out, as cfd interest will eat up profits already achieved.

Possible with the US posting a bit of confidence this week.

Wish me luck.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Hoping MBL will crack the $70 mark.

Hi Pacer,

I do not think that MBL will break the $70 mark anytime soon, I can be wrong but I do not see any strong signs that they can be worth more than $70 at this point.

I have a problem with MBL and is that they are always trying to influence the market in one way or another and people are understanding now how they do that and how ridiculous high their fees are, so based on that is $70 a real worth value?

Just me

WBII

 

[michael_selway]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Hi Pacer,

I do not think that MBL will break the $70 mark anytime soon, I can be wrong but I do not see any strong signs that they can be worth more than $70 at this point.

I have a problem with MBL and is that they are always trying to influence the market in one way or another and people are understanding now how they do that and how ridiculous high their fees are, so based on that is $70 a real worth value?

Just me

WBII

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 382.3 477.4 473.3 510.5
DPS 215.0 259.0 278.5 296.0

thx

MS

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 382.3 477.4 473.3 510.5
DPS 215.0 259.0 278.5 296.0

thx

MS

Hi MS,

EPS and DPS are forecast information and as such can vary in the short/long run, but some people like to forecast with the forecast. Interesting is that DPS is based on EPS and with the values that you give us you keep changing the payout ratio, is there any reason for that?.

Anyway, I said MBL might not be worth $70 and you are saying based on the EPS and DPS forecast it is worth $70, so just for my curiosity how much is worth for you based on that?

Thanks

WBII

 

[michael_selway]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Hi MS,

EPS and DPS are forecast information and as such can vary in the short/long run, but some people like to forecast with the forecast. Interesting is that DPS is based on EPS and with the values that you give us you keep changing the payout ratio, is there any reason for that?.

Anyway, I said MBL might not be worth $70 and you are saying based on the EPS and DPS forecast it is worth $70, so just for my curiosity how much is worth for you based on that?

Thanks

WBII

Hi payout ratio, not sure whay its changes but its ok, not too excessive or too low

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 382.3 477.4 473.3 510.5
DPS 215.0 259.0 278.5 296.0

Well Forward Terminal PE of 10. But 2009 doesnt look Terminal! ie more growth to come likely, so cant say, but above $50 so maybe $60 atm I value it

thx

MS

 

[pacer]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Sold MBL at $69.60 the other day, purely because it was slowing on it's climb....down today so am happy with the profits... up $5 from purchase on 3000 CFD's.....another holiday till a new play comes along.

Thanks for your posts, I may have held on to go above $70 otherwise, if it does though, and goes above previous highs I may have another look.

 

[swingstar]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

In response to barney in another thread... MBL is currently near a very important area of resistance ($7.50). It's fallen a minimum of 7% from here four times in the last year.

To me, right now, it looks as though it's running out of steam, and I wouldn't be surprised if it fell again. In fact I think it's setting up for a good short play.

 

[barney]

Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Congratulations Paceman, I'm glad you did well out of MBL (that rhymes, but hey... I'm a muso!!)

I agree SS, but at the same time I kinda get the feeling that MBL may have a little more fight left in it, but that would/could be determined by the Oz stock market trend in general...... today says you are right, but next couple of days will tell a better story .......... I don't hold MBL, but a friend of mine does, and for him I hope it bounces a little higher, Cheers, Barney.