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MQG - Macquarie Group

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Re: MBL where will it end?

Good article, not the strongest day for MBL today but that's one powerful trend that shows no signs of slowing.

Big deals on the horizon for Macquarie Bank
SMH September 27, 2005 - 4:43PM


Macquarie Bank Ltd shares continued their stellar run today as investors look forward to a number of potential deals over the coming months.

As the investment bank's shares race towards the $80 mark, analysts are also questioning whether a share split could be conducted to make the stock more attractive to mum and dad investors.

Macquarie Bank shares hit an intraday peak of $78.23 before ending up 60 cents at a new closing high of $74.64, making for a rise of $4.57 in the last two sessions.

The surge came after the bank yesterday upgraded its guidance for the current financial year ending March 31, 2006, saying it expects net profit to at least equal last year's $823 million.

Brokers today upgraded their forecasts, saying they believed the guidance was conservative as a number of major deals were still on the horizon.

Macquarie Bank had previously indicated it was considering leading a consortium in a bid for the London Stock Exchange.

British media outlets are reporting that a bid of more than £1.5 billion ($3.6 billion) could be announced as early as this week.

The investment bank has also appointed advisers as it prepares to float its radio assets into a new media fund.

Macquarie is also considering listing a couple of its infrastructure funds - one in Europe and the other in Korea, with a spokesman today confirming that the latter may occur "by the end of the calendar year".

Credit Suisse First Boston now believes Macquarie Bank's earnings could top the $1 billion mark in any of the next three years.

However, Goldman Sachs JBWere has cautioned that the share price was starting to look fully valued.

"Earnings risk on the downside could emerge from performance fees," said analyst James Freeman.

"So far in the second half of this calendar year, Macquarie Bank's specialist funds have not performed well.

"Should this underperformance continue, performance fees will come under increasing pressure."

There are also suggestions that the share price is becoming unwieldy - especially for the 20 per cent of Macquarie Bank's shareholders that are retail investors.

It's now one of the highest value stocks on the Australian Stock Exchange.

UBS, which has valued the bank's shares at $85 each, said a share split would be positive for the stock as Australian retail investors had traditionally been reluctant to purchase stocks with high share prices.

A share split technically does not affect the underlying value of the stock - it simply reduces the price through the issuance of more shares.

Macquarie chief financial officer Greg Ward said in July that a share split was not on the cards because it would not generate significant shareholder value.

Intersuisse director of equities Andrew Sekely said he thought it unlikely that Macquarie Bank would now change its mind.

"For an American investor, $76 is no big deal really," Mr Sekely said.

"There are prices in the hundreds in the United States."
Click to expand...
 
Re: MBL where will it end?

During the last two days I have noticed BNB getting swept along (up) with the strong sentiment towards MBL, however BNB did not retreat yesterday afternoon, investors held. CGF by comparison was pretty poor.
 
Re: MBL where will it end?

The DOW is up this morning so going on past few days
MBL could go up $2 - $3 (thats the theory anyway!)

But when has the stockmarket followed theories???


This is not advice just an observation!
 
Re: MBL where will it end?

dutchie said:
The DOW is up this morning so going on past few days
MBL could go up $2 - $3 (thats the theory anyway!)

But when has the stockmarket followed theories???


This is not advice just an observation!
Click to expand...

its 63 atm from high of 78, not sure if it will go below 60 u think?
 
Re: MBL where will it end?

Michael

For a very short period yesterday morning MBL rose about $2.70 but fell the rest of the day (DOW was up).

The DOW is down this morning so I would not be surprised at all if it did fall below $60 today - with this stock who knows.

This is not advise but I would not be buying anything at the moment - (except maybe some puts). The US market is not looking good and we seem to be following it - irrespective of fundamentals.

These comments are pure guesswork so don't take them seriously.
 
Re: MBL where will it end?

Thought today might have been the day to take another bite but the Vol says otherwise.
 

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Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

I thought todays news re mbl wasnt that bad!
yet the price is down 5 bucks. :banghead:
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Hi Visual,

It was recovering as you wrote. Good buying opportunity.

Julia
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Julia said:
Hi Visual,

It was recovering as you wrote. Good buying opportunity.

Julia
Click to expand...


yes i agree, good buying opportunity...

i been wanting 2 pick these up for sub-65 for a while...

why the sell-off u think?
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

nizar said:
yes i agree, good buying opportunity...

i been wanting 2 pick these up for sub-65 for a while...

why the sell-off u think?
Click to expand...

Hi an annoucement today

Basically bad forecast to come, as the lastest half yr much worse than first half year. So MBL most likely slow down from now on (compared to last 2 yrs). Reaching its all time high of $78 in a 3 yr time frame, seems in doubt now.

----------------------------------------

In commenting on the Bank’s business Groups for the half to date, Mr Moss said:

• The Investment Banking Group expects its second half profit to be significantly lower in 2H06 than 1H06ii and 2H05iii, due to the absence of significant performance fees. The underlying business continues to perform strongly, with growth in staff, offices in international locations, and equity under management. Overall the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period.

• The Treasury and Commodities Group expects the 2H06 to be well down on a very strong 1H06. There were strong results across all divisions and the US energy and commodities business continues to grow. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period.

• The Banking and Property Group expects 2H06 to be up on 1H06 with all major businesses performing well. The Australian mortgages business is experiencing very strong market share growth and there has been substantial growth in property funds under management. However, the investment in new businesses has limited profit growth for the Group in the current year. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period (excluding the one off gain from the formation of the Macquarie Goodman Group).

• The Equity Markets Group expects its 2H06 result to be down substantially relative to 1H06 due to poor trading conditions in Hong Kong, and quieter second half market conditions in Australia and South Africa. Overall, however, the full year result is expected to be well up on the prior corresponding period.

• The Financial Services Group expects its 2H06 to be down relative to 1H06, due to seasonality, deal flow and increased investment in businesses in 2H06. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up significantly on the prior corresponding period.

• The Funds Management Group expects 2H06 result to be marginally ahead of 1H06 and overall, the full year result to be up on the prior corresponding period.
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

I sold my mbl installlments today and took a loss...i was actually disappointed and i think so were a lot of others as the news is actually a tame downgrade and looks like growth is coming off the boil.

The profit was not bad but it wasnt like the other one that doubled last time and sent the stock flying this one says things are soft and when you account for inflation over this year and next thats 3% compounded of the money invested in the stock.

At the moment a lot of better places to park money...not saying there wont be a technical bounce on the way but mid term not so great.

sleep well for a little mbl and not a good affect on BNB
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Looks like a nice short doesn't it? Broken out below the 61-65$ trading range on higher volume. Stop circa $63.

NOTE: Average broker recco is approx $80 so this is going against the experts recommendation.
 

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Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

markrmau said:
Looks like a nice short doesn't it? Broken out below the 61-65$ trading range on higher volume. Stop circa $63.

NOTE: Average broker recco is approx $80 so this is going against the experts recommendation.
Click to expand...

so what price is the suporrt u think? liek what price do u think it can go down to based on the charts

thx

MS
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

Good question - may be it isn't such a good short.

The reason I say this is that looking purely at the charts, you would have to say that the next major support is about $50. So a reward:risk of about 3:1. However, I seriously doubt it will go back to $50. I think it will bounce off $55. Now only a reward to risk of 1.5:1

Maybe I should wind the stop back to about $61.50 to bring the ratio back up a bit....but this would be too easily stopped out.
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

OK,does anybody know why macquarie is in trading halt,hope its good news or :banghead:
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

cant make up my mind will tomorrow bring good tidingis for mac or not?
or is the price going to fall because the market has already factored the good news in :confused:
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

It is surprising that a Bank like Macquari, is to get involved with an umpteenth rescue attempt of the French and UK company, Eurotunnel ( ETL ).

ETL was floated on the Paris and London stock exchanges in November 1990 at £2.85 a share ( they now stand at 25p ) and moved to a high, close to £10.00.

Why did Eurotunnel get into such dire trouble? One was the debt position, that was agreed at rates between 5% and 7%, these rose to 11% to 17%. Forecasts of 20,000 travellers per day fell far short of the mark and only stand at around 7,000 per day at present.

The other down factor is the reduction in costs to France, particularly from the many UK airports and ferries. Infact, NZ's Infratil ( IFT ) have bought the Kent International Airport ( Manston, Isle of Thanet, North East Kent ) and are now on a four year plan to start international flights, particularly to France.

Tread carefully Macquarie Bank and don't end up in a debt mess, with the French and UK's disastrous Eurotunnel.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4771829.stm
 
Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank

And now watch as mac.reaches 60 dollars on the back of this news :swear:
 

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