MQG - Macquarie Group

[barnz2k]

call me a mum-and-dad investor (i have minimal knowledge) haha, but MQG is just one of those stocks people like me assume will, in the end, go up. If they haven't got anyone who can make money under different circumstances, they can sure as hell afford to pay someone who can!
I still wish I had sold back at $100, but I am long termer and maybe one day it will get back there..

 

[Buffettology]

I'm skeptical person and present an alternative views I could be complete wrong
and go off in a anti-MQG rage

hahaha, ROE cracks me up, but most of what he says is right!

I too, like MQG at this price, but Im still not convinced! Too bad by the time I am convinced, the price will probably be back at $80!

 

[doogle]

I am convinced...I am in - make a long term invest on this...the US will reduce interest rates more to try and avoid recession our market will edge slowly higher and if I get scared I will bail out and make a small profit on this....sounds simple.

 

[Buffettology]

but suspected 23% profit increase - surely that would bring some upside?

You would think so hey! I think sentiment is just against this stock at the moment, it appears its bottom line hasnt been hit that hard by this latest credit havoc, but an insider of mine in the banking industry beleives in general that banks are doing worse than expected.

 

[The Mint Man]

hahaha, ROE cracks me up, but most of what he says is right!

I too, like MQG at this price, but Im still not convinced! Too bad by the time I am convinced, the price will probably be back at $80!

It really depends on if your short or long on this.... I think there is some short term volatility in this sector in general but lets face it, a company that makes good $$$ wont be held down forever. I think this is what barnz2k was alluding to, as he is obviously long on MQG.

You would think so hey! I think sentiment is just against this stock at the moment, it appears its bottom line hasnt been hit that hard by this latest credit havoc, but an insider of mine in the banking industry beleives in general that banks are doing worse than expected.

Yeh my local bank teller was saying the same thing but if you think that was bad you should have heard what the ATM told me the other day when i was getting cash out:

Cheers

 

[ROE]

You would think so hey! I think sentiment is just against this stock at the moment, it appears its bottom line hasnt been hit that hard by this latest credit havoc, but an insider of mine in the banking industry beleives in general that banks are doing worse than expected.

Buffettology you know better than that ....is that is reliable information?
Only true number tell the stories

 

[Buffettology]

It really depends on if your short or long on this.... I think there is some short term volatility in this sector in general but lets face it, a company that makes good $$$ wont be held down forever. I think this is what barnz2k was alluding to, as he is obviously long on MQG.

Yeh my local bank teller was saying the same thing but if you think that was bad you should have heard what the ATM told me the other day when i was getting cash out:

Cheers

ha ha ha ha ha, this guys trades for himself and is connected with many in the banking industry. Its been his life (sadly) for 20 years now. He thinks the credit problem in Australia is bigger than being shown and says quiet a few bankers are loosing their jobs and foreclosures becoming a larger problem than expected. I would have absolutely no clue about this area and can only take his word for it. He does tell some tall tales, but he is family and I do know his contacts personally, very very impressive.

I only ever go long. Though in this current environment, have been tempted to short.

 

[Buffettology]

Buffettology you know better than that ....is that is reliable information?
Only true number tell the stories

True I agree.

Though even the expectation of a record profit I would think would do wonders for the share price of MQG. It seems to be unfairly hammered at this time.

What does that 111 page PDF released today on the MQG company announcements say? It keeps freezing every time I try to open it.

 

[tronic72]

True I agree.

Though even the expectation of a record profit I would think would do wonders for the share price of MQG. It seems to be unfairly hammered at this time.

What does that 111 page PDF released today on the MQG company announcements say? It keeps freezing every time I try to open it.

This is a great buying opportunity IMHO. I've been quietly buying up MQG, BNB & AFG. Once the current borrowing fear disappears, these companies will once again become sought after. Nearly all of these three have one year price targets of at least double their current SP. To top that off, their profits are still high, as are the dividends. Although the assets these companies own or manage may decrease in value they aren't suddenly going to become worthless and as long as management run their business' with the current economic conditions in mind their value will increase in the long term.

I remember buying Telstra when it was a 3.50 and everyone telling me it was a dog. The more people can a share or sector, the more I tend to look at it.

 

[Buffettology]

Tronic, I definately agree in that with this sector being hammered, it can allow a few bargains to be picked up.

I will wait to see where this market goes for now. But its a stock for the first time in a long time, firmly on my watchlist!

Anyone know when actual results are released?

 

[The Mint Man]

Tronic, I definately agree in that with this sector being hammered, it can allow a few bargains to be picked up.

I will wait to see where this market goes for now. But its a stock for the first time in a long time, firmly on my watchlist!

Anyone know when actual results are released?

This is what I came up with;
2008
11 November Report (Interim)
13 May Report (Prelim)
13 May Report (Annual)

By the way, good to see some people dont take things to heart as much as others and actually take note of the smilies

cheers

 

[tronic72]

Here's some evidence below that this stock is a good "LONG TERM" investment.

This is when trading becomes hard. It's soooo tempting to NOT buy and SELL, SELL, SELL when prices are being hammered the way they are. I just try to think with my head and not my heart.


http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gYVD10Fo3vvztZU-kucCVBEjKmHQ

"Australia's Macquarie Bank expects record profit, boss to quit
5 hours ago
SYDNEY (AFP) — The head of Australia's Macquarie Bank said Wednesday the bank expected a record profit of at least 1.8 billion dollars (1.6 billion US) for the year to March, despite a weaker second half.
Founding chief executive Allan Moss also announced he will retire in May after 15 years at the helm of the country's leading investment bank, a move that prompted a sharp share price fall.
Second-half profit would be in line with the 733 million dollars of the previous corresponding period, but down on the first half due to changed market conditions and a lower level of asset sales, the bank said.
For the year, the profit upgrade would be a 23 percent rise on the previous year.
"Macquarie remains very profitable, well capitalised and well funded," Moss told a briefing of investors and analysts in Sydney.
"Our holdings of cash and liquid securities are currently more than three times normal liquidity levels.
"We continue to record strong market shares and are experiencing continued good volumes in most businesses."
Macquarie is due to announce its full year results on May 20 and Nicholas Moore, currently head of Macquarie Capital, will take over from Moss four days later.
Shares in Macquarie Group Ltd dropped more than 7.0 percent on the news of Moss' retirement from the bank known here as "the millionaires factory".
Shortly before 11.30 am (0030 GMT), Macquarie shares were down 5.00 dollars, or 7.5 percent, to 62.18 dollars in a broadly slipping market."

 

[tronic72]

I am convinced...I am in - make a long term invest on this...the US will reduce interest rates more to try and avoid recession our market will edge slowly higher and if I get scared I will bail out and make a small profit on this....sounds simple.

If you bail out you'll more than likely make a Small or Large loss. This stock is a medium to long term proposition that WILL pay off big time.

 

[Ken]

Well I have gone on the Macquarie bandwagon.

I give no recommendations on this stock.

But what i can say its part of every super fund.

There common sense investing, no one is saying you have to put your house on it, but it is worth considering it.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

MQG is in a down trend with lowers lows and lower highs since the lows of August last year.

It may appear cheap now, but if it goes below $60 on higher volume there is nothing on the charts to give it support until $50.

It has also broken below the 30 week moving average and "loseable money" would be required to buy in , until it has trended sideways in a range for a few months. This may occur over the next few months, it may continue downwards.

It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.

"Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.

gg

 

[Buffettology]

It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.

Thanks for the technical Garpal.

Just one question (I am only just beginning to read up on technical analysis), do you actually beleive if it goes below $50, that it could possibly hit even close to $30? I mean, no matter what chart tells me that, I find it just IMPOSSIBLE based on its current fundamentals.

I mean based on its current book value, and a lower than historical average ROE, even if growth isnt as high as expected (and risk is never going to be huge with MQG) I calculate the very least it could possibly get to as around $40. Thats considering everything goes against this company that is possible!

 

[Miner]

MQG is in a down trend with lowers lows and lower highs since the lows of August last year.

It may appear cheap now, but if it goes below $60 on higher volume there is nothing on the charts to give it support until $50.

It has also broken below the 30 week moving average and "loseable money" would be required to buy in , until it has trended sideways in a range for a few months. This may occur over the next few months, it may continue downwards.

It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.

"Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.

gg

Interesting Garpal.
With no formal training or knowledge in charting techniques I would follow your tread and analysis on MQG price.

I have been advised by another analyst to buy MQG the same person who asked to buy BHP at 32 and FMG at 6. I did not buy MQG for some reasons I do not trust this group. But Bell recommends it and Huntley to buy a.

I would follow this chart and see what happens with MQG next week.
No criticism or any thing like that but I would like to monitor this for a change.
More to get confidence on chartists analysis.

 

[BraceFace]

It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.

"Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.

gg

To quote a famous tennis player:
You Cannot be Serious....

The company announces another record profit during extremely trying times for the financial sector, and you're suggesting it might go to $30. Come on...
Once the market shakes off it's concerns about the "Credit Crunch", I reckon investors will flock back like seagulls on a stray chip to MQG (and BNB for that matter).
The big super funds have to invest their members $$ into something, and a big dividend paying company with an excellent track record, at bargain basement prices is going to look quite attractive I reckon.

I agree, it will probably track sideways for a while, but I see this back up in the 80's, not down in 30's.
Remember the share bookbuild not so long back - it was at $87 from memory. That seemed like a pretty good price only a few months ago.

I hold MQG and plan to go LONG.

"The coward calls the brave man rash, the rash man calls him a coward"
Aristotle.

 

[Buffettology]

^^^^^^^^^^

Actually, I dont beleive the company has announced anything about profit as of yet.

Though, I would not be shocked if this one disappoints again (Im getting quiet used too it now, especially after the BHP announcement), which could be cause for more downside!

 

[ROE]

This is where all your shares price gone to

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23173453-14334,00.html

Ridiculous pay out, and like I said he can only get at the top of the game before sh**t happen .

These guys are smart remember, they come up with these debt balloon funds and suck thousands of investors in.

Do you guys read last weekend AFR? they start to unravel Babcock and Macquaries Banks model and lot of pissed off fund manager are trying to increase stake in these funds. Cut Macbank and babcock out of the management space so they don't suck money dry out of these fund. If fund managers are successful there goes those easy money fees.

I like mum and dad investors and hate to see they put their hard earn cash into something like MAP and MIG and get ripped off big time by these guys sitting with their multi-million dollars salary.

My Uncle Warren always said you better be vaguely right than precisely wrong .. I think I'm vaguely right on this one so I stay away