MQG - Macquarie Group

Trader Paul · 16 November 2007

Hi folks,

MQG ..... restructuring has provided a rare opportunity to find what
companies they are investing in, without wading through a lot of
unwanted details:

NMS Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BLY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TDO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BSG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MAP Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BBI Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCW Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SKI Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
RPX Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
NWK Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ILF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
PRU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
PMA Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ARR Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ADU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BJT Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DML Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TSO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GMG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DXL Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
HYO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SFY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GCG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
CFK Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
AAQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
CNP Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SPN Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
RCY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
AEZ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MMG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ENV Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MPG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BVA Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DSQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MOF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MLE Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GGE Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BLU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TGF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MGR Change in substantial holding from MQG
BUR Change in substantial holding from MQG
GRD Becoming a substantial holder from MQG

have a great weekend

paul

=====

The Mint Man · 27 November 2007

Just had a look at MQG, was at $75.15.
With the santa rally, it will be interesting to see where to from here over the next couple of months. Also got a 145c div in Jan.
Good buying at these prices IMO.

Cheers

EDIT: Ok, in the time I wrote this message it went back to $75.70:

The Mint Man · 27 November 2007

Sorry people, I obviously gave my opinion a bit too late because it didn't stick around those levels too long. I'm actually a bit surprised at MQG's movement today considering it was a red day on the market.
I got in at $75.50 so I'm pleased that it finished up at $78.20 wasn't expecting that, but I'll take it anyway. As I said in the last post, it will be interesting to see where to from here.
I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?

Cheers

YELNATS · 27 November 2007

The Mint Man said:
With the santa rally, it will be interesting to see where to from here over the next couple of months. Also got a 145c div in Jan.

Good buying at these prices IMO.

I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?

Cheers

Be nice if it happens. But when brokers provide forecasts such as these they don't seem to nominate the date by which they think these prices will be reached. Or do they, am I missing something in interpreting such forecasts?

Re the santa rally, will we be having one this year?

M34N · 27 November 2007

The Mint Man said:
Sorry people, I obviously gave my opinion a bit too late because it didn't stick around those levels too long. I'm actually a bit surprised at MQG's movement today considering it was a red day on the market.
I got in at $75.50 so I'm pleased that it finished up at $78.20 wasn't expecting that, but I'll take it anyway. As I said in the last post, it will be interesting to see where to from here.
I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?

Cheers

Yes I tend to agree. I have a batch of MQG at $78.50 (from a week ago) and today's performance was good, very happy to hold for the dividend. Notice the swing today was from $75.02 at the lowest to $78.20; it closed at a day high too with some strong buying at the close.

I have also read similar price targets, I actually remember reading one a while back for $110, but I don't think it will go much further than $85 or near there for the near term, noticing a fair bit of resistance around $83-84 at the high points and around $75 for the low points lately. Guess it depends on the DOW and how the credit crisis pans out for the long term price though.

Timoshev · 27 November 2007

Mint Man, the $110 figure comes from ABN Amro Craigs in NZ. They had them at $115 until early August when they dropped the target to $110. Latest revision/confirmation of $110 target by them was 14 November.

In ABN's view the MBL outlook statement for Y08 was "subdued" and overshadowed a strong result. I believe typically MBL/MQG have a preference / tendancy to understate and over deliver. ABN went on the say that although short term market volatility may have some impact MQG are cashed up and well placed to make "boutique acquisitions" and develop longer term earnings.

As far as I know MBL have indicated that their exposure to US sub-prime issues is minor. Will be interesting to see what pickings they might take over the over next 6 -12 months.

I'm in for the long term and not too bothered about short term fluctuations.

The Mint Man · 27 November 2007

YELNATS said:
Be nice if it happens. But when brokers provide forecasts such as these they don't seem to nominate the date by which they think these prices will be reached. Or do they, am I missing something in interpreting such forecasts?
Re the santa rally, will we be having one this year?

True they don’t usually say when. As for the santa rally, I was reading an article on the days trading in the US on yahoo this morning, it was saying that they have reached a correction of 10% since October, also he pointed out that the US federal reserve will put $8 bil in the US market this week, Hopefully that will help the US along its way and in turn make the Australian markets even stronger.
Heres some snips from that article:

Yahoo finance
Monday November 26, 6:20 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
The Dow's decline from its mid-October closing high is now 10.03 percent, putting the blue chip index past the 10 percent threshold that signifies a correction........
The Fed said it would inject $8 billion into the banking system on Wednesday. The amount of money is somewhat larger than in past years at this time......
The Fed's decision to inject liquidity into the market isn't unusual for this time of year. Last year, the Fed added a net $21.9 billion into the system from the Monday following Thanksgiving until the first week of January.
Lee Adler, publisher of The Wall Street Examiner, said the overall level of recent liquidity injections is consistent with past years....

click here to read more http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071126/wall_street.html?.v=45

Yes I tend to agree. I have a batch of MQG at $78.50 (from a week ago) and today's performance was good, very happy to hold for the dividend. Notice the swing today was from $75.02 at the lowest to $78.20; it closed at a day high too with some strong buying at the close.

Yeh I will be holding for the divy, and the swing was incredible IMO. I thought I had got in at the wrong time when I bought at $75.5 today because immediately after it dropped to the very low $75's, and I mean straight after! Big movements in short time today.

As far as I know MBL have indicated that their exposure to US sub-prime issues is minor.

This is true, they are hardly affected.

Thanks for the reply guys.

Cheers

The Mint Man · 29 November 2007

MQG going berserk today, 5% up at the moment.
Volume is also very high at over 2,200,000 in just the first hour of trade

. Just to compare, the average for the last 5 days was just 1,891,889

Going very well indeed!

Cheers

tronic72 · 29 November 2007

Re: MQG - Macquarie Group... Pushing 6%

The Mint Man said:
MQG going berserk today, 5% up at the moment.
Volume is also very high at over 2,200,000 in just the first hour of trade. Just to compare, the average for the last 5 days was just 1,891,889

Going very well indeed!

Cheers

MIG is Pushing 6% today. I'm happy because got in at 2.90. Anyone know what's going on?? I suspected the stock was undervalued but this is a bit full on for normal trading.

Edit: 6.1%

Edit2: 6.79%

Fab · 11 December 2007

Finally MQG seems to be bouncing back strongly. Looked pretty cheap recently and if you believe their previous annoucement they won't be affected by subprime therefore it should go much higher I believe

The Mint Man · 11 December 2007

Fab said:
Finally MQG seems to be bouncing back strongly. Looked pretty cheap recently and if you believe their previous annoucement they won't be affected by subprime therefore it should go much higher I believe

Did you mean lower?
I think that MQG is still well priced and we should see it sail further north following some good news from the US Fed tomorrow, hopefully 1/2% cut but either way its shaping up to be good news. I know that sub prime does not affect MQG's assets but the problem is that it has been affecting their share price recently so any good news on the financial sector is good news for MQG. In fact I believe they should perform better on the back of good news than other financials purely because they have said that they are not affected by sub prime... theres nothing holding them back!

Cheers

The Mint Man · 11 December 2007

Fab]Looked pretty cheap recently and if you believe their previous annoucement they won't be affected by subprime therefore it should go much higher I believe.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=The Mint Man said:
Did you mean lower?

Never mind me I obviously read the last part wrong... I thought it said 'shouldn't go much higher' hence my confusion.
And yes, I too believe it should go much higher.

Cheers

The Mint Man · 13 December 2007

This ann out today, yet another nice little earner for MQG on the side

CONSORTIUM TO ACQUIRE HOBART INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT
SYDNEY, 13 December 2007 – Macquarie Group Limited (“Macquarie”) notes the attached release in relation to the acquisition of Hobart International Airport Pty Limited by Tasmanian Gateway Consortium (the “Consortium”).
Macquarie has taken a 20% equity investment in the Consortium. Macquarie notes the impact on Macquarie Group’s capital position is not expected to be material.

TASMANIAN GATEWAY CONSORTIUM TO ACQUIRE HOBART
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SYDNEY, 13 December 2007 – Tasmanian Gateway Consortium (“TGC”) today
announced that it has signed an agreement with Tasmanian Ports Corporation Pty Limited to acquire 100% of Hobart International Airport Pty Limited (“Hobart Airport”) for $350.5 million.
Hobart Airport is Tasmania’s principal airport and serves the State’s most populous city.
The airport has well established infrastructure links providing convenient access to the City of Hobart.
TGC’s vision is to grow and develop Hobart Airport’s principal airport status, maintaining a safe and secure airport environment.
TGC will operate Hobart Airport in a manner that delivers value and quality service to customers.
It will explore a range of potential new initiatives that have been identified to meet passenger and airline needs, including airline marketing, retail expansion in the newly redeveloped terminal, further terminal expansions in future, and increased car parking options.
TGC comprises Macquarie Global Infrastructure Fund III (“GIF III”), Macquarie Capital Group Limited and Retirement Benefits Fund Board (“RBF”). GIF III is a diversified infrastructure fund investing in infrastructure and infrastructure-like assets. Macquarie Capital Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of Macquarie Group Limited. RBF is Tasmania’s largest public sector superannuation fund with approximately $3.5 billion in funds under management.
TGC looks forward to managing the airport for the benefit of passengers, airlines and other airport stakeholders.

I think today was yet another good buying opp for MQG with market weakness. MQG is still cheap ATM

Cheers

son of baglimit · 13 December 2007

surely flying scientists to antartica doesnt make hobart an INTERNATIONAL airport............ya gotta love spin.

shinobi346 · 13 December 2007

Anyone want to give some insight on why MAP, the airport arm of the Macquarie Bank wasn't involved? I would have thought with their experience in managing airports that MQG would have brought them to the table as well.

Timoshev · 14 December 2007

Since:
(a) MQG have the cash to pick up cheap assets during the current sub prime "crisis" and
(b) their restructure is presumably beneficial in the medium - long term.

Would I be correct to anticpate that there's a very good chance we (holders) could be quite happy - maybe mid to late 2008?

dastrix · 18 December 2007

All quiet on this front? some big drops considering they claim not to be affected too much by the subprime..

Any recommendations?

nick2fish · 18 December 2007

This sell off of MQG is not based on any adverse economic facts about the company. Its just a stampede of money out of the sharemarket and margin calls going off. I thought the Dow might bounce last night .... now it looks serious. MQG at $70.00 very possible over the next couple of days which would bring the companies value to within $10.00 of CBA, which to me is just crazy valuation. Maybe someone can explain the hits MQG are taking, I can't but I'm new to this,... and what a great learning oportuninty it is at the moment Anyway I'm like most brokers overweight and holding:

dastrix · 18 December 2007

Yep, dow down, everyone down. Not really a reflection of the company, but still some massive drops considering the news/eureka and so on suggest 08 prices above $100 per share.

I'm wanting to get in.. i wonder how low it will go!

The Mint Man · 18 December 2007

If I wasn't already in I would be getting in today. Only a week ago MQG was $82.60 and some would still call that cheap, today they hit $73.22 representing an 11% drop over a week.
If the US bounces overnight then MQG has quite a bit of ground to make up, strong companies like MQG don't drop like this and stay there!
DYOR

MQG - Macquarie Group

Trader Paul

The Mint Man

The Mint Man

YELNATS

Non illegitimus carborundum

M34N

Timoshev

The Mint Man

The Mint Man

tronic72

Fab

The Mint Man

The Mint Man

The Mint Man

son of baglimit

shinobi346

Timoshev

dastrix

nick2fish

dastrix

The Mint Man

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