Moving Average

[tech/a]

Possible Long.

Why's that you have lower highs and lower lows?
Thats against the hypothesis.

What is your point??

This is not testing a system by looking at one or two charts??

You asked for clarification of the dynamic nature of the CURRENT peaks and troughs.Why are you confused?

close/cross below previous trough is entry... exit is via a fixed stop and trailing SL based on system criteria. System criteria which is tested over all stocks that pass the system criteria.

Fine this is just an entry criteria---always knew that.

observing one or two charts will not give sufficient data to test.

Ive tested many peak and trough methods ALL are BRILLIANT.
ALL cannot be traded live as the last peak and or trough is dynamic.
You'll go broke.
Only trying to help---you are welcome to believe and trade as you wish.

How about now is the trade clearer?

 

[fapturbo]

Why's that you have lower highs and lower lows?
Thats against the hypothesis.



You asked for clarification of the dynamic nature of the CURRENT peaks and troughs.Why are you confused?



Fine this is just an entry criteria---always knew that.



Ive tested many peak and trough methods ALL are BRILLIANT.
ALL cannot be traded live as the last peak and or trough is dynamic.
You'll go broke.
Only trying to help---you are welcome to believe and trade as you wish.

How about now is the trade clearer?

This is the sort of thing I'm talking about as far as entries go... GU 30Min TF clearly trending... Buy above previous Resistance

I still don't understand what you mean by the last peak or trough is dynamic. Can you explain a bit further sorry...

Like I've said the last trough is what matters and that is where entry is based on.

The most important aspect to any mechanical system is the exit criteria. This is not defined. This is what needs to be tested. The entry is less important.

If we are trend following then the most important premise is, "is there a trend"

 

[tech/a]

Clean out of explaination.
Youll just have to learn from experience.

 

[beamstas]

The last point on the zig zag indicator will always repaint, so you can only ever use the second last one. If using a 5% swing then the previous point can change at any time until there is another 5% swing in the opposite direction.. So to use a zig zag is not very practical.

Buying on a higher high and lower low.. maybe this can be coded, maybe not, but again, the last low will always repaint until another high and low is made after it... and by that time you've probably missed the boat :bowser:

 

[fapturbo]

entries are clearly represented....

what is the problem??

 

[Mr J]

No guarantess that it will work in the future... However having something that has proven to have worked previously is better than having something that has proven to blow your money before... agree??

Maybe you can get it to work, but I just don't think you'll usually get a good price, and in any activity in which the aim is to profit, a good price is crucial. I do believe that there's a sweet spot, i.e. not too early and not too late, and we have to find that sweet spot to be successful.

The strategy isn't useless as I do something similar myself, I just don't wait that long to enter. I suggest watching the price action around the pivots to give you earlier signals.

Me neither.
Its the CURRENT Peak or Trough which cannot be certain---certain enough to trade off.

Until price breaks past the previous higher high or lower low, at which point the current peak or trough is confirmed to be a peak or trough. This is when Fapturbo would be entering (assuming we've had a run of LL+LHs, or HL+HHs). However, at that point the current peak or trough becomes a past peak or trough, as the break to a new LL or HH starts the prediction of the current peak or trough.

Not certain enough to trade off? Trading off a current peak or trough is exactly what I do. I aim to identify it just as it has happened, and get in on the early part of the move of that wave. I must misunderstand you though as this is far from unique. I'm sure most traders aim to try and catch a pivot and ride it to the next pivot.

Possible Long.

You'd be going against the trend there. We've just had two minor lower highs and lower lows, which was possibly a major lower high in itself, and on its way to make a new low for the chart.

 

[tech/a]

No problem.
Click to expand

 

[fapturbo]

Clean out of explaination.
Youll just have to learn from experience.

What experience are you referring too??

 

[beamstas]

What experience are you referring too??

LOL!

 

[fapturbo]

No problem.
Click to expand

Come on mate... please I dont see your point with the chart....

Trend Trend Trend.... Is that chart you show me trending ??

 

[tech/a]

What experience are you referring too??

Your own.

If your experiencing profitability then you'll keep doing what your doing.
if you dont you'll either stop or be forced to stop through lack of funds.

You get confused easily/often

 

[fapturbo]

LOL!

Experienced at trading or experience at coding...

Because I dont see how being experienced has anything to do with developing a system unless you are referring to coding experience

 

[tech/a]

The chart Ive been refering to is OSH.
Wouldnt say its been trending all that well over the last 10 yrs.
click to expand.

 

[Mr J]

Trend Trend Trend.... Is that chart you show me trending ??

There are a number of trends in there. Looks fine to me. However, if you were entering upon "confirmation", you would have done poorly.

 

[fapturbo]

There are a number of trends in there. Looks fine to me. However, if you were entering upon "confirmation", you would have done poorly.

This is a problem.... "number of trends"



What do you define as a tradeable "trend"

 

[johnnyg]

You'd be going against the trend there. We've just had two minor lower highs and lower lows, which was possibly a major lower high in itself, and on its way to make a new low for the chart.

Without going off topic, here's another very similar chart. With exactly the same setup. 2 minor lower highs and lower lows.

 

[tech/a]

Experienced at trading or experience at coding...

Because I dont see how being experienced has anything to do with developing a system unless you are referring to coding experience

You wont get argument from me.
Every peak and trough system I have seen designed has been spectacularly profitable.

And everyone of them have failed in walk forward testing out of sample.
Experience in how to use the analysis your coding is important.

It appears your itching for someone to suggest your less than competent.
Strange?

Night all.

 

[johnnyg]

Which turns into this.

Just my way of looking at charts.

 

[fapturbo]

A stock that looks like this would be a much better candidate for a trend following system...


Using the rate of change of the 200 day moving average as a filter we filter out many potential stocks that are just going sideways...

 

[tech/a]

What do you define as a tradeable "trend"

All you can do is place yourself in a position to take advantage of a trend through analysis and resultant anticipation.
So you cut your losses if proven incorrect and let them run if proven correct.
All trends are tradeable.