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Thanks mate!
Most who want to get rich or retire wealthy... have got it wrong
- Thread starter tech/a
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Thanks mate!
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Muchos gracias!
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Didn't have the second one so many thanks Tech.
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I have decided this is exactly what I am going to do.
In my current role I have a spare 1-2 hours a day where I could be increasing my knowledge/supplement my income.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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I have decided this is exactly what I am going to do.
In my current role I have a spare 1-2 hours a day where I could be increasing my knowledge/supplement my income.
Id also encourage those who want to trade stock to also have a look at PAVs stock trading thread.
Futures has the benefit of long and short but then CFD's (with all their issues) do as well.
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Just to clarify, are you referring to the momentum setups thread, or does he have another?
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I have decided this is exactly what I am going to do.
In my current role I have a spare 1-2 hours a day where I could be increasing my knowledge/supplement my income.
Awesome mate. Go for it
DeepState
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...as would a highly skilled coin. It too would blow the investor out of the water. The hard part being to know that the coin was highly skilled at the outset, unlike its lesser skilled siblings. Perhaps the coin that tossed three all-in binaries in a row to achieve the above outcome is 'highly skilled' and we should back it accordingly?
At a starting line on 9 Mar 2015, 1000 traders from ASF (incl lurkers) who have had more than three years on the site following various threads over time and, presumably, have a couple of hundred hours of flying time and sim time logged, start with $25-30k. The Institute of Highly-Skilled Traders gave this to them, so it is not even their capital. They are running a turtle experiment, X-Factor for traders. They get to keep the money only if they convert this to $200k in less than a year. If not, they walk with nothing. For the purposes, this money is presumed to be noticable as supplemental income and considered to be worth 2-hours a day of spare time by each candidate. Nothing stops them from trading on their own account either....etc. add legal stuff to close off the loopholes to the clear intent of this question. Multiply the dollar figures by 1000x if you feel the need to make the traders stupendously motivated for the chance to make $200m.
They trade FTSE and DAX only.
What proportion of traders, who make this attempt from scratch, do you think would achieve this outcome if this type of thing was their objective? Can you outline the reasoning?
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I would assume its >12.5% (all in double or nothing 3 times from $25k)
Wysiwyg
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I am eligible for the exercise but doubt being able to increase initial equity to 200k in one year. This is based on my experiences to date and my psyche.
There is no need for 3 times.
Just flip a coin for long or short and set a stop-loss at x % and a profit target at 8x %. It saves time.
Of course, nobody here would do that. They all believe they have skill and could do better. A few (very few) would be right, a few more would be lucky and the others would miss out. I'm confident that there would be nowhere near 125 winners. No way.
Maybe just a dozen or so. 700% profit pa is a tall order.
Now I have a more interesting question. Assuming that you know that you have no trading skill but that you would like a better than 12.5% chance of collecting the $200k, how could it be done? Let's aim for a 50/50 chance, $200k or nothing.
How would YOU do it without trading skill?
DeepState
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It doesn't work like that. The moment the coin/binary flips, you gap. If you want to insure that gap risk...you pay for it. And then some. SQ's approach is superior and would be worth the extra few minutes.
As the last few posts have begun to highlight, not quite all here are detached from the concept of likelihood. There are a reasonable number who do not fall into the grand sweep. Nonetheless, I'm with you on the <12.5% as central case. This contrasts a bit from SQ, but the extent depends on how much greater than 12.5% he (or others) think that figure should be and why. Seen the spread on binaries? I'm not going to die in a ditch arguing for <7.5% for example. In all, what I take from SQ's response is a thought the starting line comprises of people who should do better than the market as a whole (which is pretty random, though not quite so). To which I ask, "Why"?
I think 1-2% success as you suggest is on the low-side for this set-up which encourages large scale risk taking given it clips the downside to zero. Like you hint at with the one-swing concept above (though with my misgivings on the way it would actually work), ASF'ers can figure out that a few big bets get's you a higher chance of walking away with cream than getting nibbled away with com' and spread on 1,000 tight trades....unless they are truly gifted(possible)/deluded(more likely). This set-up is absolutely loading the question in favour of maximum favourable outcome just to see what the belief on upside capture is. Whatever this figure is supposed to be (and it could be >12.5% under certain conditions), the reality with personal capital will be much lower, partly for the reasons you suggest and others besides.
So, let's sweep all the complexity away and just use this maximum upside set-up for the population of thread viewers and participants with a couple of hours a day to spend on this, motivation to do so, and experience sufficient to make them capable of understanding this stuff, if not yet sufficient to be world class.
What do others, the frequent posters with the strongest beliefs on high return outcomes and extolling trading as a means to get rich and/or retire wealthy, think this figure should be? Why? What about the detractors of this concept?
More interesting? It's right in front of you already.
Outright best revenue raiser: Be a pure broker. Better still, publish signals.
If you want to get more creative, enter into a low stakes 'put up or shut up' wager with Joe as bag-man/collateral-manager with anyone who pops up claiming that this is easy and obvious to achieve stretch outcomes and watch them or their proxy/scion/protégé try to achieve it. Sometimes they will. It helps a lot if the idea is actually possible and demonstrably so. You will get a lot of volume coming your way from a new breed of believers. Soak it up. You'll do better than 50/50 unless Joe's fees are rather extortionate....if so, don't argue..he knows people who know people..
Thanks for your detailed response to my post. I didn't expect that.
At first I couldn't really understand this bit
because I'm no trader. But now I know after giving it some thought. As far as 12.5% v. a dozen, you may be right too. Unfortunately we are not going to find out. That's why I thought of this "more interesting" scenario.
To get anywhere near a 50% chance of success, we could of course not use an informationless entry for our trades.
We would need a very high win rate; something like 80% would be required with 3 trades (80% ^ 3 = 51.2%). Since we will be trading the DAX, we go for mean-reversion. It wouldn't be impossible to find a combination of N-day runs, N-day high/low and maybe some RSI that can be combined to get an extremely selective overbought/oversold entry signal. We only need 3 of those in a year. Exit is either double or bust.
Now I must admit I have never looked at the DAX or even futures for that matter. It may not work as well as it works on ASX stocks.
But is there something fundamentally wrong with the idea?
I also hope to see some more responses to the original survey by DeepState.
At first I couldn't really understand this bit
because I'm no trader. But now I know after giving it some thought. As far as 12.5% v. a dozen, you may be right too. Unfortunately we are not going to find out. That's why I thought of this "more interesting" scenario.
To get anywhere near a 50% chance of success, we could of course not use an informationless entry for our trades.
We would need a very high win rate; something like 80% would be required with 3 trades (80% ^ 3 = 51.2%). Since we will be trading the DAX, we go for mean-reversion. It wouldn't be impossible to find a combination of N-day runs, N-day high/low and maybe some RSI that can be combined to get an extremely selective overbought/oversold entry signal. We only need 3 of those in a year. Exit is either double or bust.
Now I must admit I have never looked at the DAX or even futures for that matter. It may not work as well as it works on ASX stocks.
But is there something fundamentally wrong with the idea?
I also hope to see some more responses to the original survey by DeepState.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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I don't want this thread to lose sight of my purpose.
I see many new people on the forum and young people through life who firmly believe that financial freedom will come when they have millions. The problem is getting anywhere near their first million.
The second group I see a lot of are those who are nearing retirement or are in retirement and are fully aware that their savings in Super just aren't going to see them through---even with pension help. They realize that the next 10/20-30--eek years--- is a long time to support or part support yourself.
It is these people who need to learn how to fish---and then be able to experience of true financial freedom.
This thread IS NOT SAYING that shorter term trading will give you vast wealth.
Its an alternative to those who may never be wealthy in terms of their peers.
I see many new people on the forum and young people through life who firmly believe that financial freedom will come when they have millions. The problem is getting anywhere near their first million.
The second group I see a lot of are those who are nearing retirement or are in retirement and are fully aware that their savings in Super just aren't going to see them through---even with pension help. They realize that the next 10/20-30--eek years--- is a long time to support or part support yourself.
It is these people who need to learn how to fish---and then be able to experience of true financial freedom.
This thread IS NOT SAYING that shorter term trading will give you vast wealth.
Its an alternative to those who may never be wealthy in terms of their peers.
skc
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The current contention is around probability... not whether the actual outcome is achievable.
In your opinion, what percentage of people following your suggestion would achieve what you are suggesting?
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I think everyone should read the richest man from Babylon. Lots of wisdom in there and certainly should be part of every education (be it formal or informal).
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The Richest Man in Babylon is one of the greatest books on accumulating wealth ever written. Its basic premise is that part of all you earn is yours to keep, written in 1926 but still a GEM.
Compounding the 8th Wonder of the World, Nortorious is spot on when he suggested that this book should be part of everyone's education, and compulsory in our schools curriculum. Its a pity financial education is not taught in schools as it could be introduced in such a way the student wouldn't know that they are being conditioned.
Financial education is a life skill and immensely important through their teenage years and later on going into their adult life.
REMEMBER there is only one thing money can't buy - and that's POVERTY
skate.
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