Most who want to get rich or retire wealthy... have got it wrong

[burglar]

So you don't go to meetings, manage staff, attend conferences or report to management?

The wins (and losses) of daily fluctuations are instant.

A long conversation, toilet break or lunch (which is a daily event at work) jeopardises any reaction to the market.

Suggesting an hour of research on a Monday night can earn you $600 seems nice, but unrealistic when you're locked in daily meetings with the PHB*

*Dilbert reference

Don't mean to rude ... or misunderstood.
I am unemployed, in that I don't have all those wonderful things to fill my day.

Bosses, backstabbers ...
Chief Warden and white hat ...
Left behind!


My children are grown up and have left home.

 

[galumay]

I dont see any convincing evidence that trading leads to getting rich or retiring wealthy on anything but a random and incredibly infrequent basis. All the studies I have seen suggest the vast majority end up with net losses over time.

But, if you can make money from it, and you are happy doing it, then why not. Just abstain from assuming others are wrong because they dont share your world view.

 

[ROE]

Craft

Yes iknow all the theory.
I don't know of anyone or even heard of anyone
Who has actually done this or is 10/20/30 years into it.

I do I know a few actually, they bought CBA shares when it float NEVER sell a single share even today
at $90, they also bought CSL and Telstra and never sold a single share with all the up and down.

They also bought into Medibank recently...they just ignore the blah blah of macro talk and the next prediction etc...

Their portfolio is truly multi millions with dividend in their hundred of thousands for doing nothing for the last 30 years with very little invested capital ....

then their kids get into the act, they too early for CSL and CBA but they bought TLS and held have not sold, they now bought in MPL and I am pretty sure they buy a few more in the next 30-40 years.

what has happened during those years? dot com bust, Asian crisis, 1988 melt down, GFC, Russian and countless other countries default etc.

The things I take away from this is, good business will keep on delivering regardless of macro, it may have a temporary set back but over a long period of time it will deliver you the dividend and the capital grow.

How else the billionaire get their billions? from their business dividend and the value of their business worth much more over time.

 

[galumay]

I tell you what tech/a, i will suspend my scepticism and follow your strategy if you are in fact willing to share it with a crash test dummy! I have plenty of time on my hands during my gap year, I have some capital I could put at risk to test the strategy so lets give it a shot!

If it involves Technical Analysis as I assume, then I will truly have to overcome my scepticism given that I believe it has been substantively proven that TA does not work, this in itself will be a good thing to challenge the core of my world view!

If you want to discuss it offline give me a pm and i will share my email with you.

 

[ROE]

What about this guy ..compounding works for him

http://www.news.com.au/finance/mone...rprise-donations/story-e6frfmci-1227209887369

 

[PinguPingu]

I tell you what tech/a, i will suspend my scepticism and follow your strategy if you are in fact willing to share it with a crash test dummy! I have plenty of time on my hands during my gap year, I have some capital I could put at risk to test the strategy so lets give it a shot

Interesting UK series on something similar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ciY8u04Kk


Would also be interested in being a crash dummy, paper trading mini futures, doing ok, but definitely not making the money stated in this thread.

 

[pavilion103]

I tell you what tech/a, i will suspend my scepticism and follow your strategy if you are in fact willing to share it with a crash test dummy! I have plenty of time on my hands during my gap year, I have some capital I could put at risk to test the strategy so lets give it a shot!

If it involves Technical Analysis as I assume, then I will truly have to overcome my scepticism given that I believe it has been substantively proven that TA does not work, this in itself will be a good thing to challenge the core of my world view!

If you want to discuss it offline give me a pm and i will share my email with you.

I would have thought the test case is the guy who started the futures thread.

 

[tech/a]

I do I know a few actually, they bought CBA shares when it float NEVER sell a single share even today
at $90, they also bought CSL and Telstra and never sold a single share with all the up and down.

I'm not saying it cant be done.
Clearly it can. VES is another example.

I had a great run compounding tech trader for 7 yrs 2000-2007
It was traded live for those years On Radges site and we turned $30K on Margin 2:1 at the time from BT
to $386,000 (peak $429K) over 7 yrs compounding returns. Very powerful.
There are a few I know who are still trading it and have new equity highs.

If anyone is interested its in Radges book '"Unholy Grails" Page 109-113

tech/a - So if you make 20% a week, and you started off with 10k last february.

You'd have over 50m today.

Really?

How do you figure that.
20% on $10K is $2000 x 52 Weeks.= $104,000

$1000 on a DAX contract---single contract is 29 ticks.
It moves approx. 80 a session on average.

I pluck a K or so a week out of it
So far this week its about $5200 all traded here in the Derivatives thread if you want to have a look.

Here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26509&page=211

I dont see any convincing evidence that trading leads to getting rich or retiring wealthy on anything but a random and incredibly infrequent basis. All the studies I have seen suggest the vast majority end up with net losses over time.

This is very true there has been all sorts of studies done with brokers and their accounts.
One I saw said 90% were stagnant and the rest only a sprinkle were profitable.
The vast majority wouldn't place their Super in their own hands ---most will have it in a fund which at best covers inflation over many years.

As for the younger people they just wont have the funds to grow. Life is tough enough without blowing what little
capital you have put aside.

So you don't go to meetings, manage staff, attend conferences or report to management?

The wins (and losses) of daily fluctuations are instant.

A long conversation, toilet break or lunch (which is a daily event at work) jeopardises any reaction to the market.

Suggesting an hour of research on a Monday night can earn you $600 seems nice, but unrealistic when you're locked in daily meetings with the PHB*

*Dilbert reference

I know this was for Burlar
But I do.
I have a small business of 20 and my day is full on.
But my trading is now at night when my wife watches "Neighbours" Cant stand it----or any reality show!!

My trading is only an Hr or so when Im at the screen.

But, if you can make money from it, and you are happy doing it, then why not. Just abstain from assuming others are wrong because they don't share your world view.

Your mis understanding my purpose. I've noticed the larger majority here are my target audience.
I'm suggesting an alternative---not a theory of alternation but one I know works. I and PAV are doing it---so too I'm sure are others on this site.
You don't needs wads of money and you can supplement whatever income you have in a very short time each day without a massive time investment (After you learn what your doing). Setup is a few $$s for live feeds etc.

But if you have a million bucks and leave most of it too rust while your work 20K hard – I think that’s dumb – you need to manage it all for the best overall dollar return.

I agree but I'm not targeting people with a million bucks.
The Young ones who are trying to move forward and those who are close to or retired who came up short!

I tell you what tech/a, i will suspend my scepticism and follow your strategy if you are in fact willing to share it with a crash test dummy! I have plenty of time on my hands during my gap year, I have some capital I could put at risk to test the strategy so lets give it a shot!

If it involves Technical Analysis as I assume, then I will truly have to overcome my scepticism given that I believe it has been substantively proven that TA does not work, this in itself will be a good thing to challenge the core of my world view!

Kris my son is a Physics PHD. I'm luck enough to be able to employ him for 2 days a week for however long this takes between other projects his company works on. The quant capability of these guys is amazing. Way way beyond me.
I'm teaching him to trade and he's teaching me what works and why.

I can tell you that your wrong about T/A Dr Bruce Vanstone also a PHD has written a lot of papers on the topic proving that T/A has an edge. We know it has an edge.

Some of Bruce Vanstone's works here http://works.bepress.com/bruce_vanstone/

So too does Howard Bandy.

My point.
Why if you had something really good would you share it with the public

Well You wouldn't and I don't (well I did with PAV).
This was without Kris.---You DONT need a Kris.
But what we are seeing in the first month is truly mind adjusting. The final aim is a bot.(Think 3 or so tiks 30-100 or more trades a session).

I'm presenting here something for those who are in the position they perhaps see as daunting.
An alternate way to financial stability. I'd argue a more practical way of attacking the markets than that which is always totted!

 

[pavilion103]

Tech,

Teaching someone how to fish..... I was thinking about this in the car this morning.

Most nights on the FTSE I am on for 1-1.5 hours.
If I wanted to I could take 1-2 good trades per week and do nothing else.
The knowledge I have is enough to make an income (or more).
I have this for the rest of my life.
As I grow in confidence I can slowly increase the number of contracts thus doubling, tripling etc my income with EXACTLY the same number of hours work as previously (1-1.5 hours).

Stocks - When the market is trending I get involved.
I do literally a 10 minute scan and flick through charts.
I do maybe another 10 minutes of entering pending orders and adjusting my stops.
I don't have to check it until the next night.
In a trending market the returns are better than you will get anywhere else.


A few years of learning and effort (equivalent of a uni degree) and the ability to replace my income with a maximum of 2 hours "work" per night. 10 hours per week. And even while I'm at the screen I can be listening to music, watching a doco, even exercising if I want, waiting for setups to appear!

Increase contracts.... and you're looking at multiples of an income for 10 hours a week work. I'm not at THAT point yet, but probably not too far away.

I guess some can see it. Some can't.

 

[craft]

I'm not saying it cant be done.
Clearly it can. VES is another example.

I had a great run compounding tech trader for 7 yrs 2000-2007
It was traded live for those years On Radges site and we turned $30K on Margin 2:1 at the time from BT
to $386,000 (peak $429K) over 7 yrs compounding returns. Very powerful.
There are a few I know who are still trading it and have new equity highs.

If anyone is interested its in Radges book '"Unholy Grails" Page 109-113



How do you figure that.
20% on $10K is $2000 x 52 Weeks.= $104,000

$1000 on a DAX contract---single contract is 29 ticks.
It moves approx. 80 a session on average.

I pluck a K or so a week out of it
So far this week its about $5200 all traded here in the Derivatives thread if you want to have a look.

Here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26509&page=211



This is very true there has been all sorts of studies done with brokers and their accounts.
One I saw said 90% were stagnant and the rest only a sprinkle were profitable.
The vast majority wouldn't place their Super in their own hands ---most will have it in a fund which at best covers inflation over many years.

As for the younger people they just wont have the funds to grow. Life is tough enough without blowing what little
capital you have put aside.




I know this was for Burlar
But I do.
I have a small business of 20 and my day is full on.
But my trading is now at night when my wife watches "Neighbours" Cant stand it----or any reality show!!

My trading is only an Hr or so when Im at the screen.




Your mis understanding my purpose. I've noticed the larger majority here are my target audience.
I'm suggesting an alternative---not a theory of alternation but one I know works. I and PAV are doing it---so too I'm sure are others on this site.
You don't needs wads of money and you can supplement whatever income you have in a very short time each day without a massive time investment (After you learn what your doing). Setup is a few $$s for live feeds etc.



I agree but I'm not targeting people with a million bucks.
The Young ones who are trying to move forward and those who are close to or retired who came up short!



Kris my son is a Physics PHD. I'm luck enough to be able to employ him for 2 days a week for however long this takes between other projects his company works on. The quant capability of these guys is amazing. Way way beyond me.
I'm teaching him to trade and he's teaching me what works and why.

I can tell you that your wrong about T/A Dr Bruce Vanstone also a PHD has written a lot of papers on the topic proving that T/A has an edge. We know it has an edge.

Some of Bruce Vanstone's works here http://works.bepress.com/bruce_vanstone/

So too does Howard Bandy.

My point.
Why if you had something really good would you share it with the public

Well You wouldn't and I don't (well I did with PAV).
This was without Kris.---You DONT need a Kris.
But what we are seeing in the first month is truly mind adjusting. The final aim is a bot.(Think 3 or so tiks 30-100 or more trades a session).

I'm presenting here something for those who are in the position they perhaps see as daunting.
An alternate way to financial stability. I'd argue a more practical way of attacking the markets than that which is always totted!

Hmmm, I’m wondering now if Tech wants to advocate freely what he believes passionately to be the truth or is he(and maybe others) positioning with smoke and mirrors for a commercial enterprise.

I know my weaknesses, and one is tolerating ‘gurus’ with ‘secrets’ for sale.

Hope my suspicions are wrong – but I hear my queue for a break from the forum.

Signing out.

Cheers folk - Take care.

 

[pavilion103]

I don't get it.

There is no secret knowledge that is hidden from all except an elite few.

Anyone can do this.
Anyone can do it without Tech or anyone else.

Heck, the two books that I found most helpful to me were free PDFs.


Futures opens up a whole new world.
If we are looking at purely returns on stocks... that's a different thing..
But futures....Once you know how to trade them you can do the things mentioned above.

 

[tech/a]

Hmmm, I’m wondering now if Tech wants to advocate freely what he believes passionately to be the truth or is he(and maybe others) positioning with smoke and mirrors for a commercial enterprise.

Now there's an idea!
seriously though.

There are people who want to be guided.
I'm happy to do that here as I have been for many years.

Kris and I have discussed method release and to be honest we have no intention of releasing anything.
I certainly adhere to the school of----if its that good why would you release it to others. We wont.

But there are wads of information gleaned from the research Kris is doing. Stuff that proves and disproves all sorts of ideas-----common and not so common. Great to know and can save lots of time.
The testing ability using Python in the hands of someone like Kris is way beyond amibrokers capability ---although we do run some together
.
We got stuck on the first method test--Ami couldn't write it!
I have briefly chatted with Joe.---nothing serious or formal.

The sole intention of this thread is as I have said above.

 

[futurenow]

I know this was for Burlar
But I do.
I have a small business of 20 and my day is full on.
But my trading is now at night when my wife watches "Neighbours" Cant stand it----or any reality show!!

My trading is only an Hr or so when Im at the screen

How do you trade when the markets are closed?

 

[pixel]

How do you trade when the markets are closed?

Simple: You pick a Market that's open when you want to trade.
New York;London; Futures; ... endless possibilities

 

[galumay]

I'm presenting here something for those who are in the position they perhaps see as daunting.
An alternate way to financial stability. I'd argue a more practical way of attacking the markets than that which is always totted!

You lost me, you are offering something, but you are not prepared to share it with anyone?

I made a genuine offer to accept the help you were posting about - and for that you just blew me off!!

I really cant work out what your motivation is for posting this thread.

 

[Value Collector]

The way I see it is this.

The companies on the stock market generate value, year in year out, they are producing earnings. Some of these earnings go to holders as dividends, some reinvested in growth (some growth investment works others doesn't, but overall the companies will grow, or even just buy back shares pay off debt etc).

Now who gets the benefit of this value generation depends on the strategy employed.

If your a buy and hold investor, owning a decent cross section of the market, and you hold through the various ups and downs, you will get the full benefit of the value generated over the years. You are guaranteed you will get a market average return.

When it comes to the traders, some by skill or luck will be able to increase the portion of the value generated they capture by jumping in and out of the market at opportune times, so may get a better than average market return, however this will be at the general expense of less skilful or unlucky traders on the other side of their bets. you will also be sharing this return with your broker.

Trading is a zero sum activity, if you're making a larger than market average return, then someone else has to be making a below average return, add to that broking costs, and it's impossible for the average person to beat the market average return.

However it is very easy, for even an unskilled investor to earn a market average return without spending any time on trading each week, simply buying and holding an index and dollar cost averaging into it, sure it's not exciting, but earning a 10% return over the years will allow them to hit their goals.

Compounding is the key, as craft and Mcglovin said.

 

[pavilion103]

The way I see it is this.

The companies on the stock market generate value, year in year out, they are producing earnings. Some of these earnings go to holders as dividends, some reinvested in growth (some growth investment works others doesn't, but overall the companies will grow, or even just buy back shares pay off debt etc).

Now who gets the benefit of this value generation depends on the strategy employed.

If your a buy and hold investor, owning a decent cross section of the market, and you hold through the various ups and downs, you will get the full benefit of the value generated over the years. You are guaranteed you will get a market average return.

When it comes to the traders, some by skill or luck will be able to increase the portion of the value generated they capture by jumping in and out of the market at opportune times, so may get a better than average market return, however this will be at the general expense of less skilful or unlucky traders on the other side of their bets. you will also be sharing this return with your broker.

Trading is a zero sum activity, if you're making a larger than market average return, then someone else has to be making a below average return, add to that broking costs, and it's impossible for the average person to beat the market average return.
However it is very easy, for even an unskilled investor to earn a market average return without spending any time on trading each week, simply buying and holding an index and dollar cost averaging into it, sure it's not exciting, but earning a 10% return over the years will allow them to hit their goals.

Compounding is the key, as craft and Mcglovin said.

Do you mean the average person by the definition of average? (given it's a zero sum activity)

Would you acknowledge that anyone who committed properly to trading futures and willing to put in the time and effort (like myself and others) can achieve well above average returns?

 

[tech/a]

You lost me, you are offering something, but you are not prepared to share it with anyone?

I made a genuine offer to accept the help you were posting about - and for that you just blew me off!!

I really cant work out what your motivation is for posting this thread.

Seriously you guys crack me up.
I'm offering an idea as to an alternate train of thought and way to use the financial markets.
Other than buy and hold--value invest---Managed Funds---trend following---ETF's etc.
A change of thinking where you don't need poultice of $$s to lighten the load of financial burden.

You and Craft have come to the conclusion that my thread has an ulterior motive. I'm priming up to sell something.

You seem to think I have something I wish to prove is profitable and your the person who should be convinced.
Craft thinks I am edging to sell something.

I have a method I use and have used for sometime. Its not for sale and wont ever be.
Kris and I have some methods which also wont ever be for sale.
Many here have often said
If its that good "Why would you sell it?"

INDEED

Why would I give you the method I use or any method to placate your scepticism?
Where did I offer help you or anyone?
I'm suggesting an alternative not offering to give/sell that alternative.

You guys fly off at a tangent.

TPI!!

Most know I use a combination of VSA/Micro Pattern T/A on Index futures.

We are working on other methods.

 

[TPI]

You lost me, you are offering something, but you are not prepared to share it with anyone?

I made a genuine offer to accept the help you were posting about - and for that you just blew me off!!

I really cant work out what your motivation is for posting this thread.

I don't know exactly what tech/a's approach is but from reading his previous posts much of it could be based on "volume spread analysis".

See the free PDF below:

http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf

I'm about half-way through it now, been slow going due to time constraints and laziness, but the basic ideas behind this approach seem to make a lot of sense, despite me being fundamentally/value inclined.

 

[tech/a]

However it is very easy, for even an unskilled investor to earn a market average return without spending any time on trading each week, simply buying and holding an index and dollar cost averaging into it, sure it's not exciting, but earning a 10% return over the years will allow them to hit their goals.

So Im 25 I have $20k so I can set and forget for $2000 a year
OR
Alternately I can learn how to trade/Fish and with the same $20K earn $300 to $say $2000 a week if I'm really good.

Im offering an alternative way of thought not suggesting you kill any other.
But I do think most Have it wrong

When they come to the stock market at a young age wanting to get rich
Or
At an older age looking to generate well above the market average on larger sums.