MLS - Metals Australia

I think the previous surge is due to overreaction by the market and I think the SP will go back to 7 cents and hold it until the next announcement. Previously, all the announcement doesnt seem to have long effect on the SP. Within days, the SP will retrace back to its initial support which is about 7 cents. Therefore, I think a good entry will be around 7 cents.

ongchuan said:

I think the previous surge is due to overreaction by the market and I think the SP will go back to 7 cents and hold it until the next announcement. Previously, all the announcement doesnt seem to have long effect on the SP. Within days, the SP will retrace back to its initial support which is about 7 cents. Therefore, I think a good entry will be around 7 cents.

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I'm not so sure ongchuan - while you wouldn't pick it from the buy depth, there seems to be a bit of support at 10 cents (or perhaps sellers aren't willing to come down). Historically the SP has dropped very rapidly after and annoucement, but it seems to be holding up relatively well this time

hi ongchuan - if MLS goes to 7 I'll eat my hat - thats because I wont have money for food!!! (only j/ks)

On a serious note I doubt MLS will collapse to 7. Each to their own.

Tell you what, gentlemans bet - you go for MLS to hit 7 and I'll go for MLS to hit 18. We'll see who wins.

You should buy some put options so you can profit from your prediction =)
Oh, and if I win - you wont have to pay me a dime, lol!

Cheers
-Cali/.

I'd very much doubt it will fall back to 7c. Not after the announcement about the U prospects. I think it will more likely consolidate at 10c. We can see alot of short term support around this price. Hopefully price holding at 10c with low volume would hopefully lead to a good week next week.

1000000 t of 7% Zn JORC compliant
= 70000t of Zn

Current Spot price of Zn = $3731 US / t
Aprox = $3059 AUS / t

Total Reserve Value = $214 159 400
# Shares Issued Aprox 650 million

Share Price should be $0.32

MLS is currently 10c.

DYOR!!!!

zt3000 said:

1000000 t of 7% Zn JORC compliant
= 70000t of Zn

Current Spot price of Zn = $3731 US / t
Aprox = $3059 AUS / t

Total Reserve Value = $214 159 400
# Shares Issued Aprox 650 million

Share Price should be $0.32

MLS is currently 10c.

DYOR!!!!

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The share price can't be valued on the in ground value. That would Make AAR valued at $4.00 with an almost US$2b Jorc compliant resource at Koongie Park, which is obviously incorrect. 10-20% of that value is a better (but still inaccurate) back of the envelope method of calculation.

zt3000 said:

1000000 t of 7% Zn JORC compliant
= 70000t of Zn

Current Spot price of Zn = $3731 US / t
Aprox = $3059 AUS / t

Total Reserve Value = $214 159 400
# Shares Issued Aprox 650 million

Share Price should be $0.32

MLS is currently 10c.

DYOR!!!!

Click to expand...

Also $3731 is closer to about $4,500 AUD so that gives closer to a $350,000,000 inground resource. That values the shares at 49cents, at the current price the market cap is 20% of the inground value at mandini. This doesnt take into account the nickel and uranium projects though.

Hot of the presses, so to speak!
After speaking with Metals Australia’s (MLS) Exploration Manager, Timothy Putt today, I feel more confident that Metals Australia will perform very well overall. In regard to the Phase 1 drilling at the Manindi Zinc Project so far, Tim described the results as “real mind blowing and shallow at depth”. Tim said, “Further lab results from the Phase 1 drilling program will be announced within a week or two.”
When asked if the grades from the drilling were expected to be high Tim said the grades were expected to be “pleasant, nice, high-grades.” When I asked when Phase 2 would begin Tim said, “Between drilling and the lab tests there is a four week turn around.”

Metals Australia (MLS) website:
http://www.metalsaustralia.com.au/

8th May 2007
High-grade zinc mineralisation at the Mulgara prospect, Manindi zinc project:
http://files.aussiehome.com/493/MLS%20Announce%2008.05.07.pdf

Tim said, “The real wild card is Namibia” with the drill reporting. He said he has an experienced uranium exploration team set up in Namibia and he will be hearing from them next week in regard to further ground radiometric exploration and drill reporting. Announcements will made “updating the market as work progresses on the Mile 72 & Engo Valley project areas”.

10th May 2007
Significant uranium mineralisation at the mile 72 project, Erongo Province, Namibia:
http://files.aussiehome.com/493/ASX%20Announcement%2020070510.pdf

Tim said, “Metals Australia has a 30% interest in the Sherlock Bay Nickel Project with Australasian Resources Limited (ARH) with 70% interest and they are very good operators and the relationship is very good. It is a good deal with good potential for both Metals Australia and Australasian Resources. That’s where the Chinese connection is for Metals Australia, it’s with Australasian Resources.”

18th May 2007
Australasian Resources Limited (ARH) Market Update:
Sherlock Bay Nickel Project:
http://clients.weblink.com.au/clients/metalsaustralia/article.asp?asx=MLS&view=6362244

Australasian Resources Limited (ARH) website:
http://www.sbnc.com.au/

Forward speculation:
Prior to any possible significant announcements, I believe the share price could possibly consolidate slightly this week on low volume before rising up to and passing the previous high of $0.120 that was reached on Monday 14th May 2007.
When considering the large volume of shares traded recently and the long 5 month positive triangular consolidation period between December 2006 and May 2007 leading up to the recent share price increasing from $0.074 to $0.120 between the 7th and 14th May 2007, it would not be hard to imagine the share price rising to the all time high of $0.170 in a relatively short time and continuing onwards and upwards, especially in light of all the positive announcements and the increasing share price and volumes traded.

The chart of Metals Australia (MLS) seems to me to be trailing a very similar path to that of Australian Mines (AUZ) that today, Monday 21st May 2007 skyrocketed from $0.135 to $0.180 after the announcement of a significant drilling report and possibly because of a number of other recent positive announcements. In regard to Metals Australia (MLS), in my humble opinion, perhaps the uranium “wild card” of Namibia and any near future announcements may hold the key to the square and compass.

I thanked Tim for his time and that I appreciate his time very much. Tim said, “If you have any other questions, don’t hesitate to call.” I said okay, thank you. I thanked Tim again and we hung up.

Kind regards, HOT STOCKS.

hi - just had a read there. Thank you for going to the effort of outlining your discussion with the director.

Just a quick aside - what was your impression of the director?

I find that directors are highly unlikely to speak negatively on their stock - so it comes down to reading tones.

Did his positivism like irrational confidence, quite confidence, optimism, hope?

And also - what was your impression of his technical knowledge/expertise?

Cheers
-Cali/.

Caliente,
Thank you for your question. It is my understanding that Timothy Putt is the exploration manager for Metals Australia (MLS) and I am not sure that makes him a director. I have spoken with Tim before, possibly in March 2007 when the share price was around $0.065 just before the recent share price increase up to $0.12 on the 14th May 2007. On both occasions my impression in talking with Tim on the phone is that I found him to be very pleasant and professional in every way. Tim has a great knowledge of all the different aspects of the mining business, including technical knowledge and expertise. He has many important contacts within the mining industry that is the result of years of experience. Tim was able to effortlessly answer any of the relevant questions I had in regard to Metals Australia (MLS) and he did so calmly and in a professional manner. I would describe Tim as an intelligent and confident leader within a team situation. Importantly, I have spoken with Tim twice now and on both occasions he has been very generous with his time and knowledge.
Lastly, Tim did recommend investing with a long-term view.

I hope that you find this information useful.

Kind regards, HOT STOCKS.

Good work Hot Stocks.

Just my opinion here, but the oppies in MLS look incredibly undervalued in comparison to the share. Option code - MLSOA

Expiry September 2009, exercise price of only 5cents. Last price, 5 cents. SP is 9.8 cents. That puts the oppies at only a .002 premium to the sp.

For a 2.5 year expiry, and an ex price of 5 cents, i would expect that the oppies should trade at a premium to the sp, of somewhere between 1-1.5c.

But, with these things, the market does eventually correct itself, as it did with RML and BYR.

Nice post Hot Stocks.

Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts of your conversation. I think MLS may be one to put in the bottom draw for 6-9 months and then look and see it 2-3 times the price at the moment. (heres hoping anyway).

Announcement!

High Grade Zinc!

23 May 2007
The Manager - Companies
Australian Securities Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000

HIGH-GRADE ZINC MINERALISATION AT THE KULTARR PROSPECT,
MANINDI ZINC PROJECT.

HIGHLIGHTS

· Significant results at Kultarr (Zone D Nth) include:
MND 032 18.15 m @ 10.72% Zinc from 122.0 metres.
Including 3.00 m @ 27.57% Zinc from 122.5 metres.
And 2.00 m @ 16.30% Zinc from 133.1 metres.
· Kultarr shows significant zinc mineralisation over substantial widths within the ore
body.
· Infill and extensional drilling at Kultarr continues to intersect significant economic
mineralisation.

Metals Australia Ltd (‘Metals’) is pleased to announce that the results from the first diamond drill
hole at the Kultarr prospect have been received. The diamond drilling programme at Kultarr (Zone
D Nth) is designed to infill on the existing drilling pattern, as well as the testing the extensions of
the ore body.

Kultarr is the largest of the four resource areas at Manindi, currently with a JORC compliant
resource of:
603,130 tonnes @ 7.66% Zinc*

*It should be noted that the above resource figure was calculated in 2000 and does not include the extensions to the
mineralisation delineated through drilling undertaken in 2006-2007.

Drill hole MND 032 was designed to intersect the ore body at depth in order to provide drill core to
assist in the ongoing programme of metallurgical test work being undertaken by Metals Australia
Ltd. This drill hole successfully intersected significant economic zinc mineralisation over a
substantial width, with results including:
MND 032 18.15 m @ 10.72% Zinc from 122.0 metres.
Including 3.00 m @ 27.57% Zinc from 122.5 metres.
And 2.00 m @ 16.30% Zinc from 133.1 metres.

Drilling continues at Kultarr, with geological logging indicating that a number of drill holes, both
along strike and at depth, have intersected sulphide mineralisation over significant. The assays
for these drill holes are pending and will be made available as soon as they are received and
evaluated by the company.

Metals Australia looks forward to announcing further results of the drilling at Kultarr (Zone D), as
they become available.

Yours faithfully,
Norman Grafton
Company Secretary
Metals Australia Ltd
Competent Person Declaration
The information in this report that relates to Exploration Results, Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves is based on
information compiled by Timothy Putt of Exploration and Mining Information Systems, who is a member of The
Australasian Institute of Geoscientists. Mr. Putt has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and
type of deposit under consideration and to the activity that he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined
in the 2004 Edition of the “Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resource and Ore Reserves”.
Timothy Putt consents to the inclusion in the report of the matters based on his information in the form and context in
which it appears.
For further information please contact:
David Zukerman, Director or Tim Putt, Exploration Manager Phone (08) 9481 7833
Or consult our website:

Ruprect,

Thank you for your comments. I do appreciate quality feedback.
I find your opinion very interesting that the “oppies in MLS look incredibly undervalued in comparison to the share.”
At this point my knowledge of options trading is very limited and I don’t completely understand the full implications of your opinion. I had a brief look at the charts of MLSOA and RMLOA.
At first glance apart from the appearance of slightly more volatility the MLSOA chart seems to be closely following the pattern of the share price movements.
I agree with your opinion that “the market does eventually correct itself, as it did with RML and BYR” as I believe that opinion strongly relates to the natural repetitive patterns that occur throughout the share market. See Elliot Wave Theory.

Kind regards,
HOT STOCKS.

Wallave,
Thank you for your comments. I agree with your opinion that “MLS may be one to put in the bottom draw for 6-9 months and then look and see it 2-3 times the price at the moment. My opinion in the short-term is that there is another wave approaching within the short-term. I base my opinion on the recent consolidation of the Elliot Wave Theory pattern and on the Timothy Putt’s “mind blowing” Manindi high-grades at “shallow-depth” that was “coming along” so far and possibly further similar result to be announced “in the next week or two” from the lab. Plus the “wild card is Namibia” where Timothy Putt will be “hearing from the team next week.”
My opinion is that between $0.095 and $0.100 represents a good entry price window. Timothy Putt was of the opinion that $0.098 was a “good price” to buy the MLS shares at the moment as of …

Hang on…an announcement just came through entitled, “high-grade mineralisation at the Kultarr Prospect, Manindi zinc project!” This is great news that has appeared with perfect timing and the share price jumped up immediately which is a very good sign! My opinion is that this is the start of the next Elliot Wave, right now as I am typing.

Metals Australia (MLS) price and volume last traded:
Wednesday 23rd 2007 at 12:25:11 PM
Price: $0.1050
Price up: 10.5263%
Volume: 34,628,451
Number of trades: 408
Low price: $0.0950
High price: $0.1150

“Drilling continues at Kultarr, with geological logging indicating that a number of drill holes, both along strike and at depth, have intersected sulphide mineralisation over significant. The assays for these drill holes are pending and will be made available as soon as they are received and evaluated by the company.”

“Metals Australia looks forward to announcing further results of the drilling at Kultarr (Zone D), as they become available.”

Metals Australia MLS announcement
23rd May 2007 11.04am
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070523/pdf/312ldrnlzlcjh7.pdf

My opinion is that more significant announcements will follow, possibly within the next two weeks and the share price will increase, especially after the recent consolidation. My opinion is that the share price could easily jump up 30% or more one or more if one or more significant announcements are made by Metals Australia in the next two weeks, especially any announcements in regard any further high-grade uranium results at Mile 72 in Namibia.

Kind regards,
HOT STOCKS.

HOT STOCKS said:

Ruprect,

Thank you for your comments. I do appreciate quality feedback.
I find your opinion very interesting that the “oppies in MLS look incredibly undervalued in comparison to the share.”
At this point my knowledge of options trading is very limited and I don’t completely understand the full implications of your opinion. I had a brief look at the charts of MLSOA and RMLOA.
At first glance apart from the appearance of slightly more volatility the MLSOA chart seems to be closely following the pattern of the share price movements.
I agree with your opinion that “the market does eventually correct itself, as it did with RML and BYR” as I believe that opinion strongly relates to the natural repetitive patterns that occur throughout the share market. See Elliot Wave Theory.

Kind regards,
HOT STOCKS.

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Sure, as im sure you know, in simple terms options give you the opportunity to buy a particular share at a designated price. Because they arent techincally a share, and you still have to pay money to aquire the share, they arent going to be worth as much as the share itself.

In MLS case, the share closed today at 10.5c, the options closed at 5.5 cents. The price to excercise the option, ie to buy the share is 5 cents. 5.5cent option cost + 5 cent ex price = 10.5cents.

The value in them lies in the fact that you can purchase a whole lot more of them than the share for the same outlay. In this case a $1000 outlay would get you 9523 shares, but 18181 options. And, as you stated, the option will theoreticaly follow the movement in the share price. If MLS moves up 1 cent, then so should the options. Doesnt always follow exactly, but its always close. Therefore your return for your investment is going to be much greater with 18181 than 9523.

The reason MLSOA are undervalued IMO is because options should, by their very nature trade with a premium attatched. That is, because they are cheaper to buy, and the rewards can be greater, they are more sought after. Those with long times to expiry should have more of a premium included, with the premium decreasing over time.

Exchange traded options list with a premium attached, company traded options such as MLS are often different, given at placements etc at a discounted price. It can take the market a while to adjust, but adjust it usually does.

The value in MLSOA is that as of today, they are trading WITHOUT a premium, and over time that premium will be included. Just my opinion of course!

If there wasn't so many shares on issue there would be a greater price movement to the announcements being made. Its finding it hard work breaking 11.5c .....

zt3000 said:

If there wasn't so many shares on issue there would be a greater price movement to the announcements being made. Its finding it hard work breaking 11.5c .....

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We`ll have to get them `ol wittlin` sticks out and start a wittlin`.

Not me though. Sold when the flashing lights,roadblocks and stop signs were put up.lol.

Good Little Article - near the bottom is MLS relevant!

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page66?oid=21357&sn=Detail

"Three Australian zinc hopefuls get high grade drill hits
Three Western Australian junior companies this week reported high grade zinc drill intersections to give hope for a boost in this vast mining state’s limited zinc production.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Thursday , 24 May 2007 "

wow, already traded 20m+ (11:03am), no announcement yet though. It's gonna be a good day for MLS....It's been coming