MEL - Metgasco Limited

Go Nuke · 18 May 2009

I thought last week that MEL would have support at 60c but if the DOW takes a hit like it has then it would have to have been extremely strong support to hold 60c.

1) I too like YT think that someone is trying to keep a lid on this sp with some biggish sell orders. Look at 60c now with over 100K capping the upside.

2)It may sink down to the longer term uptrend line...around about 55c.(this would also bring us back to about the middle range of the Bolly Bands being the 21day MA)

3) Longer term uptrend line would suggest an absolute low of about 50-52c. A break below this would signal a sell.

Looking at the bigger picture though MEL is still in an uptrend and in the right sector at the moment so I will hold for the many reasons outlined by others (ie value comparison)

ps, at 57c now. Gap has been totally closed.

Mc Gusto · 21 May 2009

Agreed Nuke

MEL seems to be showing strength in the base around 55cents. I bought in at 60 but c'est la vie i like them and i am holding.

Thanks

Gusto

CapnBirdseye · 21 May 2009

Go Nuke said:
I
1) I too like YT think that someone is trying to keep a lid on this sp with some biggish sell orders. Look at 60c now with over 100K capping the upside.

ps, at 57c now. Gap has been totally closed.

I thought you were being a little paranoid. Not so sure now, there are lots of little sell orders coming in to match buy orders when the buy/sell gaps, keeping the SP down.

johannlo · 21 May 2009

newbie question, (ducks head)

Assuming this is the case (and I like paranoia), and someone is intentionally dumping stock - doesn't this mean they're foregoing the profit they would make if they let it keep going up?

And what reasons would they have to do this save to have a low SPP so takeover comes in on the cheap? But if they already held MEL shares wouldn't they make more if it sold more? Or is it the case that they see such potential that cheaper takeover price outweighs the gain they would make selling off higher priced MEL?

are there any other scenarios other than the one I've outlined above? I ask in a general sense i.e. not specifically to do with MEL though obviously the answer may fit

<confused and naive>

Datsun Disguise · 21 May 2009

Hey Nuke - that is the prettiest graph I've seen for a long time, post some more - go on.

Jolo - if a take over player is trying to cap the price I don't think it would have much effect on the final board recommended sell price. When takeovers happen - unless they are hostile on market raids - you will find the board making all sorts of astronomical valuations on current, future and any other sort of asset they can find. Higher the valuation higher the price and all s/h's are happy.

I reckon it's just price weakness, I'd be surprised if anyone was manipulating - but I'm surprised on a daily basis....

I like MEL and hold.

skc · 22 May 2009

johannlo said:
newbie question, (ducks head)

Assuming this is the case (and I like paranoia), and someone is intentionally dumping stock - doesn't this mean they're foregoing the profit they would make if they let it keep going up?

Short sellers never held the stock so they can profit from a price fall without foregoing the profit they would have made if the price keeps going up. Not that I think MEL is targeted by shorters, given it's takeover possibility. Check the ASX daily short seller info to confirm.

If a current holder is intentionally keeping price down, then he can still benefit in the end because of the volume he is dealing with. It may cost him 10m shares to keep the price <60c, but saves him 5c a share on 200m shares when he announce the takeover. That's a decent return.

Of course, there's also the fact that MEL isn't actually a profitable company, but just a spec. There is no guarantee that it will be taken over and that it is possibly falling because of the fundamentals.

CapnBirdseye · 22 May 2009

skc said:
Short sellers never held the stock so they can profit from a price fall without foregoing the profit they would have made if the price keeps going up. Not that I think MEL is targeted by shorters, given it's takeover possibility. Check the ASX daily short seller info to confirm.

If a current holder is intentionally keeping price down, then he can still benefit in the end because of the volume he is dealing with. It may cost him 10m shares to keep the price <60c, but saves him 5c a share on 200m shares when he announce the takeover. That's a decent return.

Of course, there's also the fact that MEL isn't actually a profitable company, but just a spec. There is no guarantee that it will be taken over and that it is possibly falling because of the fundamentals.

I've never used the short sell list as a resourse, but it's a fairly interesting list. Not much shorting at all at the moment.

http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt

pointr · 22 May 2009

skc said:
Of course, there's also the fact that MEL isn't actually a profitable company, but just a spec. There is no guarantee that it will be taken over and that it is possibly falling because of the fundamentals.

I've already posted on some of the fundamentals that will make it harder for MEL to develop it's CSG assetts in an area of more environmental sensitivity,population density and more difficult geographics for infrastructure. The current flooding in this relatively wet north east of NSW is a reminder of another potential development problem in this area, that of water disposal from CSG wells.
Just my to add to the diversity of views that make up a market

IMSancho · 22 May 2009

New announcement is out, http://www.metgasco.com.au/files/725856.pdf

Seems to paint a fairly rosy picture, though not sure if there is really anything new that we didn't already know having only had a quick skim through it.

Got back in today after getting stopped out earlier in the week, will be interesting to see where this one goes.

YOUNG_TRADER · 22 May 2009

IMSancho said:
New announcement is out, http://www.metgasco.com.au/files/725856.pdf

Seems to paint a fairly rosy picture, though not sure if there is really anything new that we didn't already know having only had a quick skim through it.

Got back in today after getting stopped out earlier in the week, will be interesting to see where this one goes.

Highlights yet again how they are the cheapest Aust CSG player on a 2P or 3P basis

This is called an anomoly and one which will no doubt eventually be rectified, just a matter of time and patience

skc · 22 May 2009

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Highlights yet again how they are the cheapest Aust CSG player on a 2P or 3P basis

This is called an anomoly and one which will no doubt eventually be rectified, just a matter of time and patience

Anomaly can be rectified by either MEL going up, or others coming back down...

I hold so hopefully it will be UP.

Go Nuke · 22 May 2009

Datsun Disguise said:
Hey Nuke - that is the prettiest graph I've seen for a long time, post some more - go on.

Jolo - if a take over player is trying to cap the price I don't think it would have much effect on the final board recommended sell price. When takeovers happen - unless they are hostile on market raids - you will find the board making all sorts of astronomical valuations on current, future and any other sort of asset they can find. Higher the valuation higher the price and all s/h's are happy.

I reckon it's just price weakness, I'd be surprised if anyone was manipulating - but I'm surprised on a daily basis....

I like MEL and hold.

Thanks DD

Ive never called "tweezer bottom" before but so far thats what we have today which is potenialy bullish.

Also watch for the stochastics keeping to their uptrend with is also bullish. They are ready to turn up off that trend line soon imo.

Low volume also preceeds high volume and we are also seeing that.

AND it looks so far as though the sp has support from the 200 day MA

Everything styill looks great from my point of view.

johannlo · 22 May 2009

Good points with the above. I wish I knew more about CSG mechanics to make an accurate assessment of the underlying statistics. As a newbie with no background in mining or energy its difficult to know how 'true' the stats being bandied around are, I know how much methodology and context can affect how 'real' the statistics are.

Based on everything i've read going to go medium term with this and disregard the short term movements, barring any earth shattering revelations. From my limited experience I've gotta draw a line in the sand and decide whether a given stock is a trade, a wait and see or a long termer, and act accordingly.

studmuffin · 23 May 2009

johannlo said:
As a newbie with no background in mining or energy its difficult to know how 'true' the stats being bandied around are, I know how much methodology and context can affect how 'real' the statistics are.

Just never forget the old saying "a mine aint nothing but a hole in the ground and a liar on top" Then you will never be dissapointed

Sean K · 24 May 2009

studmuffin said:
Just never forget the old saying "a mine aint nothing but a hole in the ground and a liar on top" Then you will never be dissapointed

There is certainly LOTS to consider with funadamental analysis. Probably moreso than TA in my opinion, which is why I like to use it as a crutch. Not sure where the bid money is made however. Picking a stock you think is undervalued and backing it. Or, trading technicals with clear money management rules. Or, mix it up.

db96 · 26 May 2009

This one is about to hit the lower trendline at about 50c. With the XAO looking a wee little bit toppy, will the support trendline hold????

Dukey · 26 May 2009

Nice blue chart there - how do you squeeze that out of Bigcharts.com?? I just get boring white ones!!

- MEL: will be interesting to see what happens. I'm expecting a bounce from around 50c back towards the recent high - but general market sentiment could throw a spanner in the works.

- here's hoping for the former. - dukey

YOUNG_TRADER · 29 May 2009

MEL has a very important well underway drilling on PEL 13 which is next door to PEL 16

This well is important because 100% of MELs large reserves are on PEL 16 (and only a small portion of it ie 5%-10% of PEL 16)

Success in this well will confirm continuity of the CSG resource throughout broader parts of PEL 16 and into PEL 13, could be a real big company making well IMO

Still Im here for the takeover play

Largesse · 29 May 2009

in what time frame would we expect results to realistically start filtering through?

talking days or weeks?

Agentm · 29 May 2009

YOUNG_TRADER said:
MEL has a very important well underway drilling on PEL 13 which is next door to PEL 16

This well is important because 100% of MELs large reserves are on PEL 16 (and only a small portion of it ie 5%-10% of PEL 16)

Success in this well will confirm continuity of the CSG resource throughout broader parts of PEL 16 and into PEL 13, could be a real big company making well IMO

Still Im here for the takeover play

i like the well myself

it has 75% ownership by mel, and i agree a well like this could be a company maker

lets see how this one plays out.. i hope i will be glad to be on board this one

MEL - Metgasco Limited

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