Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MEL - Metgasco Limited

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Mad Mel said:
-They intersected two different coal formations which potentially can be developed. Both flowed gas to the surface.
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Please note that this statement is incorrect... the Richmond seam is contained in the WCM. Too late for the edit button, unfortunately.
 
woltage said:
175 mcf/day is well below PES flow rates in Cameron wells of 750 and 1000 mcf/day. Average in Surat-Bowen basin is 600 mcf/day, Sydney basin is 500 mcf/day according to

http://85.185.226.180/ahwaz/files/downloads/article/spe2007/SPE-106850-MS.pdf

I sold out based on this info.
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It sounds like you might be able to answer my question about relating post-drilling gas discharge and production volumes. I take it you feel that this well will not meet the production volumes similar to those in the article?
 
Mad Mel said:
It sounds like you might be able to answer my question about relating post-drilling gas discharge and production volumes. I take it you feel that this well will not meet the production volumes similar to those in the article?
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According to Metgasco, rates are supposed to improve with de-watering but I've yet to hear of an improvement on 200 mcf/day from Corella-11 and its been on production for 18 months. Supposedly optimum rates can take 1-2 years.

Commerical is 300 mcf/day

http://www.aer.com.au/announcements/2008/1031/00898156.pdf
 
woltage said:
According to Metgasco, rates are supposed to improve with de-watering but I've yet to hear of an improvement on 200 mcf/day from Corella-11 and its been on production for 18 months. Supposedly optimum rates can take 1-2 years.

Commerical is 300 mcf/day

http://www.aer.com.au/announcements/2008/1031/00898156.pdf
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So based on this info, the results from this well are mediocre. The only potential upside is increased flow with either time or dewatering.

Not a failure, but not a complete success.

This was released to market pretty quickly. I'm not sure how flow rates are expected to increase over time. Is it linear, exponential (increases not flows) or other?

There was also no mention of the amount of water removed, if any. Surely this is an economic consideration also.

Looks like I have lots to learn...
 
johannlo said:
I'm naturally inclined towards paranoia :) and I can find no other explanation for this behaviour except for the market behaving completely irrationally. Occam's razor and all that.....

something is afoot that us ordinary retail investors are not aware of.
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Putting on the tin foil hat for a moment...

Volume is approaching 900k today, and yet sp has moved little and units offered for sale have only reduced by 50k from this morning. Maybe due to a limited understanding of what the announcement means - ie those wise to it are selling steadily to the demand? Sounds unlikely, the sellers would be a pretty well coordinated and disciplined bunch to achieve that - poor news is usually accompanied by a stampede as sellers try to exit at the highest price possible.

So if it isn't a well connected bunch of in the know sellers, it could only be a single seller drip feeding into the market - must have accumulated at low prices earlier this year to be able to do it....

tin foil hat off - carry on.
 
I'm only an amateur but a v interesting analysis on HC offering a counterpoint to woltage (who incidentally put his negative analysis on HC as well lol)

(http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=895154&msgid=5091649)

In a nutshell:
- purpose of well is to determine boundaries of coal seams. Not overall production from PEL13.
- this boundary is already producing gas (non commercial) without watering and associated long lag time to production / environmental issues.
- So this test well is more to prove viability of low cost CSG production in PEL13 area not so much from this well itself or specific location.

Food for thought for those thinking to jump ship.

I'm still a miffed though at the capping that other posters have pointed out lol.

Not trying to say anyone's right or wrong, just interesting to read others analysis.
 
A little calm has come to MEL which can only be a good thing. My imaginary friend has even taken a break.

One for this patient I think. Time so sit back and see bigger picture emerge. Of course, trading is about seeing the bigger pcture before its all clear.
 
God knows what they'll eventually pull up, but still pretty solid on the chart. That resistance zone formed up even more now after the failure on the break through 60. I added more then expecting a decent follow through. Disappointing considering the market has continued higher and higher. More spec money should have flowed back in here imo. As long as the uptrend line holds I'm happy.
 

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Nice choice of upper bound. Ignoring the spike as you have makes this one look like it's ready for a good breakout. Upwards hopefully.

I do think this is too closely watched to let the technicals be overly significant. The management seem to be a canny lot, announcements seem to be well timed.
 
Speculative buy in the Sunday Times based on in being undervalued on a peer basis. However we already know that from the great work of all on this thread. :) Any press is good press IMO and this places MEL in the spotlight for some more speculative money to flow in.
 
Hopeully this is a surprsie to the upside to keep them ticking along.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....

Drilling commenced on Riflebird-E15 CSG Exploration Well

Metgasco (ASX:MEL) advises that the drilling of the coal seam gas (CSG) exploration well Riflebird-E15 commenced on Sunday 14th June 2009. This well is expected to take approximately one week to complete and the rig is currently drilling ahead.

Riflebird-E15 is a vertical well designed to evaluate the production performance of the Walloon coal measures at this location. This well is planned to be the vertical offtake well for a future horizontal pilot production well to be drilled later in this calendar year.

The well will be drilled to a proposed total depth of 750 meters. Riflebird-E15 is located at South Casino in PEL 16.
 
I reckon this is what the market has been waiting for 2p & 3P reserves don't mean anything unless your have feasible gas flows coming ou of them. As I undertand it that has not yet been established.

If Riflebird comes up with the goods then I would expect we would see a re-rating - to what extent that happens (ie based on other CSG 2P / 3P valuations) only time will tell - don't have a view on the likely response as I haven't done my homework on this one - sorry.
 
I've said it before and I'll say it again

The real action will come when a major looks to acquire cheap reserves, say the cheapest 2P and 3P reserves listed on the ASX for their LNG operations ;)
 
Hey Kenna is that trend line/formation still intact after todays dump?

Wish I could fast forrward 6months to see which CSG companies are still around and what their respective share prices are
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Hey Kenna is that trend line/formation still intact after todays dump?

Wish I could fast forrward 6months to see which CSG companies are still around and what their respective share prices are
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At the moment looks pretty ordinary, but has bounced off lows. Some people want to buy it.

Will be intersting to see how it finishes.

Really, couldn't expect anything else in the environment. The fear scale is off the planet now and punters are bailing no matter what. Could be another capitulation in the works. Will just make this cheaper in the LONG run imo. But for those needing to conserve capital, being on a fence might look pretty attractive.
 

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kennas said:
At the moment looks pretty ordinary, but has bounced off lows. Some people want to buy it.

Will be intersting to see how it finishes.

Really, couldn't expect anything else in the environment. The fear scale is off the planet now and punters are bailing no matter what. Could be another capitulation in the works. Will just make this cheaper in the LONG run imo. But for those needing to conserve capital, being on a fence might look pretty attractive.
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I guess most shares would have a similar looking chart pattern for today. I know all but 1 in my watchlist would :banghead:
 
I think it's the instos doing most of the damage today. They're busy dumping WCL as well.

Funny how they seem to accumulate quietly but become conspicuous when they offload. :p:
 
I have added 100K to my holdings but its a trading holding in addition to my much larger core holding

With results from RifleBird due soon after interesecting the coals, Wyan1 confiriming the extension of the CSG/Coal resource to the west and Kingfisher about to begin drilling soon there's just too much activity for me to ignore

should see a rebound by end of the month towards 60c again
 

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