MEL - Metgasco Limited

[skc]

Bit of a pole and pennant forming up here. On a solid break up the target would be around the 80-85c mark I reckon.

Well... that flag has turned into a pretty steep retracement, although the volume remains quite low. I wonder how many of those who bought on the news letter are still holding?

The 62% fib level may hold this guy up, but any upturn may have to fight that 60c level again which held the stock back multiple times in the last year.

 

[fureien]

argh i bought at 55c during the last jump before it plummetted to the 45c range. I was tempted to sell when it was 60c+ but that flag and pennant made me think it was gunna jump back up. argh now my +10% is -10% so annoying. i can hold and wait for it to recover again or sell and watch it recover -_-

you think if the dow and aud didnt drop when it hit the bottom of the pennant it would jumped back up?

 

[Largesse]

anything material happened with these guys lately?
i havent been watching closely but noticed that the price has dipped back to buyable levels again

 

[stock nub]

anything material happened with these guys lately?
i havent been watching closely but noticed that the price has dipped back to buyable levels again

We have struck pay dirt captain!
"The well produced at a rate of 900,000 scfd after a 4 hour test on a 32/64” choke."

Apart from this good news a SPP is on the seas. Everyone (shareholders @ Fri 6 Nov) gets upto 15k worth @ 45c.

If this well keeps up the performance they should get a decent uptake on the issue IMO.

 

[bonkerrs]

We have struck pay dirt captain!Apart from this good news a SPP is on the seas. Everyone (shareholders @ Fri 6 Nov) gets upto 15k worth @ 45c.

If this well keeps up the performance they should get a decent uptake on the issue IMO.

With the price of MEL today. Might be worth looking at the SPP more seriously! Any thoughts on the SPP?

 

[Sean K]

With the price of MEL today. Might be worth looking at the SPP more seriously! Any thoughts on the SPP?

Isn't the SPP at 45c?

Might depend on if you think the current spike will last or not....

Chart wise (not that the last one was worth a piece of rabbit cud), 60-70c is a MASSIVE resistance zone. If it breaks through, and respects as support, then it's on it's way.

 

[SuperGlue]

It has already touch 76c.

Can't trade on IB, been capped.


If the gas found is really major,
SANTOS should have bought METGASCO instead of EASTERNSTAR.

 

[jancha]

It has already touch 76c.

Can't trade on IB, been capped.


If the gas found is really major,
SANTOS should have bought METGASCO instead of EASTERNSTAR.

Dream on. Santos would have done their research & not have chosen willy nilly. Wait till ESG comes out with their upgrades.

 

[bonkerrs]

Isn't the SPP at 45c?

Might depend on if you think the current spike will last or not....

Chart wise (not that the last one was worth a piece of rabbit cud), 60-70c is a MASSIVE resistance zone. If it breaks through, and respects as support, then it's on it's way.

Yep. 45c and this Thursday is the close date. Broke through 0.70c for a short period today. Sounds very promising with today's announcement!

 

[Dukey]

Yep. 45c and this Thursday is the close date. Broke through 0.70c for a short period today. Sounds very promising with today's announcement!

Timing is everything isn't it... or maybe patience.

I got stopped out in late October after holding MEL for maybe a year or more .. wasn't prepared to see it slip much under 60c again, and was starting to think they had no quality (flow rates) in the acreage. As it is - this is conventional gas not CSG - but it's all $$$ just the same!

Oh well - thems the breaks I guess!!
- Good luck to all those still holding - the SPP should be a nice little earner for everyone.

Another lesson in patience for me
-D

 

[bonkerrs]

Just wanted to get confirmation if I've got this right...

Record Date 06.11.2009
Close Date 03.12.2009

I had shares on and before 06.11.2009. I can sell my shares today and still be eligible for the SPP... right?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

After a long a wild ride I sold the bulk of my MEL yesterday

While I think MEL has great LT fundamentals when compared to ESG the going has been frustratingly slow

and besides I still get another $15k at 45c

Bonkers yes you are eligible its the record date you had to have shares at which is passed

 

[skyQuake]

Just wanted to get confirmation if I've got this right...

Record Date 06.11.2009
Close Date 03.12.2009

I had shares on and before 06.11.2009. I can sell my shares today and still be eligible for the SPP... right?

Yes. But you had to own ur shares 3 days before the record date. (before the ex date)
In fact you could have sold on the 4th Nov and still be eligible (and be quite annoyed today)

 

[bonkerrs]

Yes. But you had to own ur shares 3 days before the record date. (before the ex date)
In fact you could have sold on the 4th Nov and still be eligible (and be quite annoyed today)

Had them for WAY more then 3 days before record day, too long!!

Like YT, I'm going to offload my shares and get $15k at 45 ¢. Just have to find the form... hope I didn't hurl it when this share was frustrating the crap out of me

 

[bonkerrs]

In fact you could have sold on the 4th Nov and still be eligible (and be quite annoyed today)

Couldn't edit my last post - has to be within 20 minutes of original post.

Anyway, just thinking about what you said about the 4th Nov... T+3 right?!

Will the MEL price start to drop because of the 45 ¢ SPP in a couple of days? I've got a sell order in at over 70 ¢ but I don't think it will reach that again.

 

[CapnBirdseye]

Couldn't edit my last post - has to be within 20 minutes of original post.

Anyway, just thinking about what you said about the 4th Nov... T+3 right?!

Will the MEL price start to drop because of the 45 ¢ SPP in a couple of days? I've got a sell order in at over 70 ¢ but I don't think it will reach that again.

Depends what the news is that's coming this week. If it's good, which I expect it to be, then 0.70 will look very average.

 

[Dangerous]

Dream on. Santos would have done their research & not have chosen willy nilly. Wait till ESG comes out with their upgrades.

And what do you propose STO would do with ESG gas?... ESG is a domestic gas model. STO do not own power stations nor are they chasing domestic supply contracts. As i cannot see any synergies with the rest of the STO portfolio or growth plans, my view is they bought ESG to gain insight into the the drilling technology being used in Narrabri.

I have been a big fan of MEL and exercised a great deal of patience (for a change) for a long time purely for the fact that the $/GJ metric shows they are significantly undervalued. I figured that one day a broker or big buyer would also see this and there would be significant growth in the share price. This happened when Australian Small -Cap Investigator (the Port Phillip Publishing Company publication) recommended it.

My view now is that they need to prove up reserves to build a bigger power station. I think Lions Way project is a dud. Pipeline generally costs $36,000/km/inch so this project is way to expensive for their current reserve basis and flow rates. No one will provide finance guarenteed by 3P reserves. Financing needs 1P and 2 reserves for underwriting.

MEL prior to this week was priced for a 30MW power station (my calcs based on $50MWh). What Kingfisher provides is the possibility of a far bigger powerstation. The greatest benefit will come from the fact that if this does prove to be a decent conventional find flowing say 20MMscfd, the reduction in footprint and ensuing savings in gathering system networks and water disposal will make this Company an absolute winner.

... it does not like 70c though i think we are up to an "umpteenth top" (as opposed to a double top)

 

[condog]

Im watching this closely.....huge upside potential....existing value....but will require huge farm ins to make viable....

I agree they need significantly more gas to make viable and ensure they can pay off power station...

They have announced they expect significant upgrades soon....Im almost ready to purchase just want a fraction more evidence of significantly larger 1P and 2P

 

[jancha]

And what do you propose STO would do with ESG gas?... ESG is a domestic gas model. STO do not own power stations nor are they chasing domestic supply contracts. As i cannot see any synergies with the rest of the STO portfolio or growth plans, my view is they bought ESG to gain insight into the the drilling technology being used in Narrabri.

DO you really think STO would go to that length just to gain insight into their drilling technology? Expensive lessons. Would have been cheaper to go with MEL if thats the case.

 

[Dangerous]

ESG are using completely different drilling technology to other CSG players and would have already spent considerable amounts on the multi-lateral well R&D.

You are right in that it is an expensive lesson, but not as expensive as the lesson they learned having missed out on QGC at $1.60 (admittedly to ACCC ruling). AGL took up stake and made $1B in two years.