MBN - Mirabela Nickel

[Voto]

Good news ...from the field...

They started to produce concentrate today... and they have good indications of saving operationg cost (around US$ 0.50/t) and good results at flotation with indications of good grades (flexibility to move down the cut-off grade and increase production ). Let's see...

 

[WiseMum]

With the capital raising upon us, I wonder how long before MBN recover momentum? Anyone interested in taking up the offer? I'm thinking they could fluctuate below that price which could provide some better buying opportunities. Particularly given the time of year and fading volumes...
Thoughts anyone?

 

[skc]

Down a casual 30% today to 30c. They were $1.40 in Jan this year.

Now a speeding ticket response coming... for holders let's hope it says something along the lines of:

The rumour of my death has been greatly exaggerated

 

[pixel]

30c is but a distant dream; can it come true again?
Yesterday's speeding ticket and the laconic reply might hint that something's stirring.


Recent volume supports that optimism. I've taken a punt.
Still very speccie, so DYOR.

 

[skc]

Recent volume supports that optimism. I've taken a punt.
Still very speccie, so DYOR.

Quarterly next Tuesday. Do you plan to hold over that?

The chart looks like it is heading to corporate heaven.

PLA had a similar aggressive up move just before the end. The move reamins a mystery to me.

 

[pixel]

Quarterly next Tuesday. Do you plan to hold over that?

In a word: No.

Intraday trading patterns suggest profit taking to be in order. Top reversal "Spinning Top" Doji says the same.

 

[pixel]

I've bought some back today - just above current vwap.



Not that it matters very much - but does anyone have an explanation why $105M cash in the bank should translate to a Market Cap of only $73M? How much debt would that imply?

QR: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01426865

 

[skc]

I've bought some back today - just above current vwap.

View attachment 53565

Not that it matters very much - but does anyone have an explanation why $105M cash in the bank should translate to a Market Cap of only $73M? How much debt would that imply?

QR: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01426865

As at 31 Dec 2012, current debt $33.6m, non-currnet debt $400m according to their last report.

Less cash of $105m means net debt ~$330m. That's why the chart has been looking rather sick.

P.S. There's no way to really "imply" the debt amount based on cash in hand and market cap... just look up the balance sheet.
P.S. That's why I also think a trade on this could potentially turn nasty if they go into a halt and never comes out. The non-current debt isn't due yet but Ino body really knows all the debt convenant details either.

 

[pixel]

As at 31 Dec 2012, current debt $33.6m, non-currnet debt $400m according to their last report.

Less cash of $105m means net debt ~$330m. That's why the chart has been looking rather sick.

P.S. There's no way to really "imply" the debt amount based on cash in hand and market cap... just look up the balance sheet.
P.S. That's why I also think a trade on this could potentially turn nasty if they go into a halt and never comes out. The non-current debt isn't due yet but Ino body really knows all the debt convenant details either.

Thanks for that, skc

 

[skc]

Quarterly next Tuesday. Do you plan to hold over that?

The chart looks like it is heading to corporate heaven.

PLA had a similar aggressive up move just before the end. The move reamins a mystery to me.

Another foot into the grave. One of two major customer ending their contract.

Probably no point shorting here as the risk:reward of a major recap vs administration is difficult to pin down.

The parallel to PLA was quite striking imo.

 

[galumay]

Down 50% this morning, now thats a falling knife!

 

[notting]

just hearing the name gives me the shudders.
Can't believe people put anything long on this one.

 

[jbocker]

just hearing the name gives me the shudders.
Can't believe people put anything long on this one.

Mirabela Pickle might be a better name for it. It's copping a hiding again today.

I had an order in at 5.5c on Friday and checked before I went to work, cancelled it 5 mins before the open. Best thing I did all day.

 

[brty]

The operating activities of MBN were cash flow positive for the last half year. It is the $19m in interest and $450m in debt that has them in trouble with only $108m cash as of 30/6, and declining fast.

The fact that management flagged that there would be further cap spending in 2014 has stated to the market that management don't have a clue, therefore stock dumped.

If, and it is a huge IF, the price of nickel skyrocketed in the next week or so (by over $1/lb) then this is the bargain of a lifetime at 1.3c/share.

IMHO the most realistic take is that some type of debt covenants around minimum share price have been breached and it is only a matter of time before administrators are called in.

 

[skc]

The operating activities of MBN were cash flow positive for the last half year. It is the $19m in interest and $450m in debt that has them in trouble

That's like saying my investment property is cashflow positive if not for the interest I have to pay on 80% LVR... it is true but also means nothing.

IMHO the most realistic take is that some type of debt covenants around minimum share price have been breached and it is only a matter of time before administrators are called in.

It is highly unusal to have debt covenants tied to the share price. I think Babcock and Brown had that kind of clause and it didn't work out too well...

More likely it is related to earnings and servicability.. and they would be breached next year (as a result of the customer walking off) if not breached already.

I think any value left in the equities of MBN is simply an "option-style" value based on the volatility of nickel price... except it has the added risk of unknown convenants, operational issues etc. So if one is bullish nickel there are probably more direct means to get exposed with better R:R.

 

[trillionaire#1]

Wow this looks terrible from all angles.

Added to the woes a nickel price refusing to budge and nickel stockpiles pushing open the shed roof.

Im a little embarrassed to admit i bought this as a quick turnover high risk trade at 6 cents and bailed at 6.4
just a week ago as my gut feeling said out NOW.

I really cant see Mirabella continuing in its current state long into 2014.

 

[skyQuake]

I think any value left in the equities of MBN is simply an "option-style" value based on the volatility of nickel price... except it has the added risk of unknown convenants, operational issues etc. So if one is bullish nickel there are probably more direct means to get exposed with better R:R.

Here's a blast from the past!

What a crazy option it turned out to be.

 

[skc]

Here's a blast from the past!

What a crazy option it turned out to be.

Unbelievable isn't it?! 2.6c low on Monday, 15c close today. I didn't even have it on my watch list and was too lazy to attempt to value the stock.

Crazy stuff.

 

[jet328]

What a crazy option it turned out to be.

Existing holders lost 98% of their shares though, so not a great option.

 

[qldfrog]

when I saw the MBN thread activity: my first thought was: They are still alive???
lost enough with them not to touch ever again, but I need to track them to ensure they do not change name!!!