MAY - Melbana Energy

swm79 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

whats the difference between "Thinking everything is positive, interpreting announcements only in positive light, practically married to their idea about a stock" and posting a chart that predicts the opposite???

answer = absolutely nothing!

yes, yes everything IS rosey!

would you like me to come on here and downramp? why? if i have invested in a stock i am obviously confident that it will do well otherwise i would be a complete and utter idiot

just because i have only written about things i see as positives doesnt mean i am completely 100% happy or that i am "married to a stock"

from now on maybe i should try to post as a fence sitter.... but what would be the point of that?

Nyden · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

swm79 said:
is that all you've got to say?

provide some rebuttal as to why you imply that the only way is down or jog on to HC and post over there

I am not a member of HC; for reasons found in this very threat. My rebuttal? I've seen enough folk like you, and a couple of other posters here. They're so incredibly confident in their choice, as though they have some inside knowledge - that no one else has.

There's at least one fellow on this thread, that only posts about this stock. Does that imply that this is all they hold? I sure as hell hope not.

Do you have any understanding of risk management? Money management? Diversification? Common sense? What a brilliant idea, put all of your money into one stock. Watch it like a hawk, expect stellar profits, and self-proclaim yourself to be a guru.

What happens if it goes down? What if, (just bare with me - I know it's difficult to even consider it to be a possibility) just, what if - the news they release isn't stellar? What if the price does nothing for a year, or worse yet; sits in a down trend for a couple of years? I know, it just isn't possible, right?

What's your plan? You poke people for selling! As I've said, I've seen enough of your sort in my rather short period here. When things don't go as expected, these individuals seem to disappear, and perhaps even create new accounts, as to re-claim their guru status. Or, they sit here, complaining about governments, or some other entity or event that 'robbed' them of their big win. It's always someone else's fault that they lost money, never their own

... I could go on forever, really.

Good question, why post? There is no answer; because there is no reason. Post analysis, post thoughts, fine; but try not to be biased. Just because you hold a stock, doesn't mean it's a good choice. Only a fool believes that he's 100% right. I can love a company, believe the prospects of a stock are good; but if it doesn't perform, I sell it like the dog it is.

swm79 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Nyden said:
I am not a member of HC; for reasons found in this very threat. My rebuttal? I've seen enough folk like you, and a couple of other posters here. They're so incredibly confident in their choice, as though they have some inside knowledge - that no one else has.

There's at least one fellow on this thread, that only posts about this stock. Does that imply that this is all they hold? I sure as hell hope not.

Do you have any understanding of risk management? Money management? Diversification? Common sense? What a brilliant idea, put all of your money into one stock. Watch it like a hawk, expect stellar profits, and self-proclaim yourself to be a guru.

What happens if it goes down? What if, (just bare with me - I know it's difficult to even consider it to be a possibility) just, what if - the news they release isn't stellar? What if the price does nothing for a year, or worse yet; sits in a down trend for a couple of years? I know, it just isn't possible, right?

What's your plan? You poke people for selling! As I've said, I've seen enough of your sort in my rather short period here. When things don't go as expected, these individuals seem to disappear, and perhaps even create new accounts, as to re-claim their guru status. Or, they sit here, complaining about governments, or some other entity or event that 'robbed' them of their big win. It's always someone else's fault that they lost money, never their own

... I could go on forever, really.

if you're talking about me only posting on MEO then you need to go back further in my postings my friend. i only sweep into ASF for a few mins a day currently and i have basically only posted on MEO recently as there is the most happening in this one share out of all of my holdings... except for NWE... maybe you could go over there and bag my posts on that too... but Young Trader will back me up on that one

hahaha diversification, risk management... what are you 1st year finance degree portfolio theory... not that i do but; who said its wrong to invest in one share???

if i only had $10,000 dollars and decided to only invest in FMG back in 1990 i and sold out in June 2008 i'd be $73million richer... doesnt look so dumb does it?

poke people for selling??? no no no, that is where you're wrong... it is not that i "poked" Putty for selling because i 100% believe that it can only go up... it is because of the fact that people are now sh*tting themselves because of the last two weeks events that i poked him... because he was scared.... NOT because i believe the only way is up!!!... if you understood the share instead of coming in here and running your mouth without knowing what is going on THEN you would realise that the sentiment at the moment about this share is that it is VERY dangerous

when did i EVER say that it wasnt possible for this stock to go down??? i dont rememeber ever saying it?

if it goes down then what?.... then it goes down... you assume you know my entry point!

and if it does go down what do you propose i do???? sell when its down????

now you're being ridiculous!!!!!!!!

my sort??? jog on mate you have NO idea!!!!!

Nyden · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

swm79 said:
and if it does go down what do you propose i do???? sell when its down????

It's called a stop-loss

No, I was not referring to you when I made mention of a poster that only seems to post here.

Only with hindsight could anyone know that FMG would've made them a millionaire, and the same thing applies here, mate. Don't know why you're getting so angry at me? I am simply stating my observations of what is going on in this thread.

You don't know why people are selling, you have absolutely no idea, you cannot. You don't know that putty sold because he's 'scared'. Perhaps he sold because he sees greener pastures, or is tired of volatility / lack of movement?

I was once 'poked' for selling out of one Oxiana resources at $3-something. I believe I was referred to as a 'weak-hand'. Yeah. I remember having a nice big smile on my face when it hit 50c. The point? Well, only with hindsight can a decision be seen to be right or wrong.

swm79 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Nyden said:
It's called a stop-loss

No, I was not referring to you when I made mention of a poster that only seems to post here.

Only with hindsight could anyone know that FMG would've made them a millionaire, and the same thing applies here, mate. Don't know why you're getting so angry at me? I am simply stating my observations of what is going on in this thread.

You don't know why people are selling, you have absolutely no idea, you cannot. You don't know that putty sold because he's 'scared'. Perhaps he sold because he sees greener pastures, or is tired of volatility / lack of movement?

I was once 'poked' for selling out of one Oxiana resources at $3-something. I believe I was referred to as a 'weak-hand'. Yeah. I remember having a nice big smile on my face when it hit 50c. The point? Well, only with hindsight can a decision be seen to be right or wrong.

if you had been watching this stock you would have seen what setting a stop loss would have done! stop losses are useful for day traders... not on this, as IMO its a mid-to-long termer

not angry mate, just cant see why you want to come in here and rubbish my posts but then have no reasoning as to why you think my posts are rubbish... all you can do is rubbish your idea of me and my convictions.... but have you mentioned anything to do with the stock???

Hindsight is a hell of a tool, but not too helpful looking into the future

Nyden · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

swm79 said:
if you had been watching this stock you would have seen what setting a stop loss would have done! stop losses are useful for day traders... not on this, as IMO its a mid-to-long termer

not angry mate, just cant see why you want to come in here and rubbish my posts but then have no reasoning as to why you think my posts are rubbish... all you can do is rubbish your idea of me and my convictions.... but have you mentioned anything to do with the stock???

Hindsight is a hell of a tool, but not too helpful looking into the future

Well, by looking at the chart - I see that a stop loss would have prevented being hit by the drop from $1.6 to 18c?

Putty7 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Colourful reading today to say the least, as I said to SKC somewhere back in the thread, I was happy with my SP av for the current situation, I believe the delay on announcement changed that situation with regards to my entry point in the short term and acted accordingly, prefering to adopt a wait and see attitude while diversifying out into other shares , long term they look good, over the next few weeks with regards to the SP who knows, time will tell.

I appreciate getting all your thoughts because it helps to keep mine in check, my theory is anyone who buys because of a thread and what a few punters say, bad or good, without doing their own homework, should think about another occupation, at the end of the day we are all speculating, we all have our different ideas and values, it's what gives the market the room to move it has.

skc · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

swm79 said:
come off it skc.

is that all you can add? a snide remark and a faulty chart...

so i'm commited to my investment. big deal. i have a lot of dollars tied up in this one and have held it for quite a while so you'll appreciate why i might portray this with such optimism and hope

if you have an alternate point of view based on the fundamentals and the info provided i'd like to hear it

what's your take?

or will you just hide behind your charts and "predictive dotted lines"... your last prediction on this stock has played out REALLY well

You don't care about charts? I thought you pointed out all the triangles and breakout a few posts back?

I found that there are always signs to look out for whether someone is being objective about their investment. Words like "hope", "optimistic", "committed", "have lots of dollars tied up", "confident" etc tend to suggest little planning and strong emotions are involved.

Anyway, I have no interest in debating with you... if you are not being emotional and have planned your investment then fantastic and good luck. If you are being emotional then good luck also.

swm79 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Putty7 said:
Colourful reading today to say the least, as I said to SKC somewhere back in the thread, I was happy with my SP av for the current situation, I believe the delay on announcement changed that situation with regards to my entry point in the short term and acted accordingly, prefering to adopt a wait and see attitude while diversifying out into other shares , long term they look good, over the next few weeks with regards to the SP who knows, time will tell.

I appreciate getting all your thoughts because it helps to keep mine in check, my theory is anyone who buys because of a thread and what a few punters say, bad or good, without doing their own homework, should think about another occupation, at the end of the day we are all speculating, we all have our different ideas and values, it's what gives the market the room to move it has.

in other words "scared"

hahahahahaha just kidding Putts, i know the deal...

agree with you wholeheartedly about DYOR... and have done.

swm79 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

skc said:
You don't care about charts? I thought you pointed out all the triangles and breakout a few posts back?

I found that there are always signs to look out for whether someone is being objective about their investment. Words like "hope", "optimistic", "committed", "have lots of dollars tied up", "confident" etc tend to suggest little planning and strong emotions are involved.

Anyway, I have no interest in debating with you... if you are not being emotional and have planned your investment then fantastic and good luck. If you are being emotional then good luck also.

i do care about charts... what i dont agree with is your "predictive lines"... talk about ramping!!!

Words like "hope", "optimistic", "committed", "have lots of dollars tied up", "confident" etc tend to suggest little planning and strong emotions are involved.

hhhmmm and i'm sure you can accurately predict 100% of the time what will happen in any share on the market at any given time???? You'd better tell me this weeks lotto numbers too!

of course you have no interest in debating with me... you obviously have no idea what is going on with this share, you merely turn up post a chart and try to make other people look foolish with your "predictive power of dotted lines".... hahaha you're a joke

skyQuake · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Play nice kids.

Placement @ $0.45 to exercise the artemis option
Not sure if there's a SPP.

What this means is the triangle is gonna break to the downside. Breakout traders and support buyers would prob bail. Once instos get their shares are they would probably also be inclinded to dump at market (unless the good news comes out before that).

Disagree with stop losses just for daytraders. I think it was motorway that mentioned stop losses not only stop u from losing money, but opportunity cost (of having money tied up in dogs like LKO for years or decades)

skc · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

swm79 said:
i do care about charts... what i dont agree with is your "predictive lines"... talk about ramping!!!

hhhmmm and i'm sure you can accurately predict 100% of the time what will happen in any share on the market at any given time???? You'd better tell me this weeks lotto numbers too!

of course you have no interest in debating with me... you obviously have no idea what is going on with this share, you merely turn up post a chart and try to make other people look foolish with your "predictive power of dotted lines".... hahaha you're a joke

The term "predictive lines" were in fact a joke, as we all know technical analysis is not meant to be predictive, but only provide framework for knowing when one is right or wrong. It's OK if you don't get / agree with my dry humour.

And the chart was not ramping (or down ramping). It was just pointing out that a triangle has formed and continuation down is possible.

I have no idea fundamentally what is going on with this share. And you are missing the point. I am not debating with you the merits of this share. I am merely pointing out some of the evidences of your trading behaviour / mindset. And you don't need to debate with me what your real mindset is... as I have no interest. It's your money afterall. Again. Good luck.

skyQuake said:
Play nice kids.

Back me up, SkyQ. When have I not been nice?

swm79 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

skyQuake said:
Place nice kids.

Placement @ $0.45 to exercise the artemis option
Not sure if there's a SPP.

What this means is the triangle is gonna break to the downside. Breakout traders and support buyers would prob bail. Once instos get their shares are they would probably also be inclinded to dump at market (unless the good news comes out before that).

Disagree with stop losses just for daytraders. I think it was motorway that mentioned stop losses not only stop u from losing money, but opportunity cost (of having money tied up in dogs like LKO for years or decades)

thanks SQ always a pleasure to do business with you

granted, i think you are right - normally instos would probably bail... but it will all depend on what happens at the AGM tomorrow... i think there will be a lot more info given there tomorrow

the issue i have with stop losses is in this share in particular - tree shakers came along and knocked out a lot of stop losses and then quickly built back up above... normally i'd probably use PSAR instead of the 2% so many people use, but i'd rather just play it out on this... anyway, my SL wouldnt have been struck anyway, so no point so far

swm79 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

skc said:
I have no idea fundamentally what is going on with this share. And you are missing the point. I am not debating with you the merits of this share. I am merely pointing out some of the evidences of your trading behaviour / mindset. And you don't need to debate with me what your real mindset is... as I have no interest

so really all you're doing is trying to stir sh&%t in some sort of attempt to be seen as the alpha male???

you can have it my friend.

you said it yourself

I have no idea fundamentally what is going on with this share... I am merely pointing out some of the evidences of your trading behaviour/mindset

a personal attack...

good luck with with your trading

nomore4s · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

All right enough is enough, let's all let it go and get back on the topic of MEO.

Anymore posts debating this issue will be deleted and infractions handed out.

Thank you

swm79 · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

appologises to all involved. good luck trading guys.

if anyone wants to discuss MEO, i'm happy to do so

great tag nomore4s

GREENS · 17 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Guys the one thing going unnoticed here is, if this prospect is as good as it is portrayed then why the hell are Woodside and Chevron out of the equation. These two companies would have more knowledge than anyone including MEO of the area, geology and chances of success. This could be a very valid reason why people are starting to head for the exit. Woodside and Chevron have got the most to gain from any discovery because they will already have the infrastructure to accommodate a relatively quick and much cheaper development option of the field compared to other potential suitors.

Was looking for an entry around the 50c mark but expected Woodside to be the partner due to their issues with needing additional gas for future Pluto trains. This prospect is in relatively close proximity and its size is a perfect fit for Woodside. If it’s not good enough for Woodside then that very much worries me. The only rebuttal to that theory is that they were outpriced, but I think if they were that confident they could have out bided anyone due to the huge cost savings with development.

Also from what I have read, I wonder what their plan B is if the board of this JV partner turn down the proposal in mid December? This could be potentially devastating. I think you could look at Nexus as a prime example of what can happen to ones share price if a JV partner pulls out of a potentially lucrative agreement. However the effect would probably not be as severe because they do not have to contend with the onset of the GFC. You’d think if the major in question have come this far, the chances of failure between the two parties would be fairly minimal. Still there are more and more questions marks on this stock everyday which makes me a little uneasy at the current time.

swm79 · 18 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

GREENS said:
Guys the one thing going unnoticed here is, if this prospect is as good as it is portrayed then why the hell are Woodside and Chevron out of the equation. These two companies would have more knowledge than anyone including MEO of the area, geology and chances of success. This could be a very valid reason why people are starting to head for the exit. Woodside and Chevron have got the most to gain from any discovery because they will already have the infrastructure to accommodate a relatively quick and much cheaper development option of the field compared to other potential suitors.

Was looking for an entry around the 50c mark but expected Woodside to be the partner due to their issues with needing additional gas for future Pluto trains. This prospect is in relatively close proximity and its size is a perfect fit for Woodside. If it’s not good enough for Woodside then that very much worries me. The only rebuttal to that theory is that they were outpriced, but I think if they were that confident they could have out bided anyone due to the huge cost savings with development.

Also from what I have read, I wonder what their plan B is if the board of this JV partner turn down the proposal in mid December? This could be potentially devastating. I think you could look at Nexus as a prime example of what can happen to ones share price if a JV partner pulls out of a potentially lucrative agreement. However the effect would probably not be as severe because they do not have to contend with the onset of the GFC. You’d think if the major in question have come this far, the chances of failure between the two parties would be fairly minimal. Still there are more and more questions marks on this stock everyday which makes me a little uneasy at the current time.

Hi Greens,

i think a lot of people are caught up in the "if its not good enough for Woodside or Chevron" story... but who says it wasnt??? Has anyone from Woodside or Chevron reported that they weren't interested because of the geology?

if they knew the geology better than anyone and they suspected it to be a dud my opinion is that they wouldn't have wasted their time in the data room or even attending the farminee proceedings... but there are numerous accounts that they in fact did!

Therefore, i believe Woodside and Chevron and out of the equation because of the offer tabled by the farminee. i think, and i'm only speculating here because i think we'll find out more today at the AGM, that the offers made by Woodside and Chevron might have been too limited in their scope i.e. just a straight farmin to Artemis and that was it... but i think the farminee has provided an offer that extends much further than that and encompasses more of MEO's projects. IMO, and i'm purely reading between the lines here... we can see that in the announcement here:

Its reputation, size and independence will provide substantial long term benefits for MEO

and here

This transaction involved the resolution of complex issues beyond those of a simple farm-in agreement

and here

Additional analysis and discussionwas required with respect to the potential implementation of an integrated LNG project in the even of exploration sucess

also, i think it is (speculatively) evident through the moves that WPL and Chevron have made during October and further through reports stating that "WPL have made its best offer" etc etc

also, to remind everyone what we're talking about here with Artemis and the farmin:

WA-360-P contains the Artemis Prospect, identified by permit operator MEO Australia Ltd as having an aggregate prospective resource of 20.3 trillion cubic feet of gas (Tcf), of which 12Tcf is expected to be recoverable.

Such a figure would make it among Australia's largest gas reservoirs, much bigger than Woodside's Pluto gas field, with 4.4 Tcf, but smaller than Gorgon, the nation's biggest field with 40Tcf.... at an estimated worth of about one dollar per thousand cubic feet, the Artemis Prospect could be worth $12 billion.

with regards to the farminee pulling out - i highly doubt this will occur... you said:

You’d think if the major in question have come this far, the chances of failure between the two parties would be fairly minimal.

i totally agree. if they weren't commited to this then they wouldnt have wasted their time and money in facilitating MEO in the bidding... i think the whole "we have to get the board to sign off on it" is just a very insignificant bureaucratic ceremony

but as always DYOR

Pivotonian · 18 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

nomore4s said:
All right enough is enough, let's all let it go and get back on the topic of MEO.

Anymore posts debating this issue will be deleted and infractions handed out.

Thank you

Hey nomore4s, can you give yourself an infraction for that apalling avatar??

Just kidding!

nomore4s · 18 November 2009

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Pivotonian said:
Hey nomore4s, can you give yourself an infraction for that apalling avatar??

Just kidding!

lol, no but I can give you one for yours:

Now back on topic please.

If support at 45-50c doesn't hold I think prices could test the 30c region but that is only off a quick view of the chart and tbh it's not looking very bullish atm.

MAY - Melbana Energy

swm79

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

swm79

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

swm79

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

Putty7

skc

Goldmember

swm79

swm79

skyQuake

skc

Goldmember

swm79

swm79

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

swm79

GREENS

swm79

Pivotonian

really really good looking

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

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