MAY - Melbana Energy

[Putty7]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Hi Nyden, I agree with you in theory and I am watchful over these shares as I have exposed myself to a high percentage risk within my portfolio, the State of things at the moment is unsettled IMHO with the Dow and ASX seemly bumping along at the moment rather than having the set direction of earlier in the year after the March-April correction, it's times like these that the SP can be manipulated to a certain extent because doubt enters the market and a lot of traders seem happy to convert to cash and wait for the uncertainty to finish rather than risk themselves to uncertain exposure.

It's only my opinion and I am open to correction of my thinking as if I knew everything and was always right I wouldn't need to be here, I am fairly new and I am still learning, probably will be long into the future if experience has taught me anything. Won't be throwing my capital figures around again in here, another mistake learnt over the course of this journey

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Expectations are everything. Risk is a fundamental, and the future of the entire economy is still somewhat uncertain. This will weigh on any share price. An indicator that the economy is recovering, leads to the idea of less risk. Whilst, on the flip side - an indicator that perhaps the economy is not recovering, leads to an increased risk.

Risk will always be built into the price of any investment, and risk is a fundamental.

After all, nobody wants to be the last to leave the party.

i agree... but fortunes are made and lost on mispricing of shares

if they weren't i suspect a lot of us wouldnt be here talking about it.

 

[skc]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Hi SKC, not sure at the moment, my av. is .536c, I have other companies I am interested in before the end of the year so I'm not looking long term for these, it's a quick in and out play and will depend on the strength of the announcement, a poor response to the announcement and I will probably bail as IMHO they will either run or they won't, there's no guarantees with the stock market behaving like it is at the moment. If it does fall to far past my av. I would not be keen to lose a big percentage dollar wise so would probably have to hold even though it is not in my plans...

I lost a bundle getting caught up with Admiralty earlier in the year in my biggest rookie mistake to date

Hi Nyden, I agree with you in theory and I am watchful over these shares as I have exposed myself to a high percentage risk within my portfolio, the State of things at the moment is unsettled IMHO...

It's only my opinion and I am open to correction of my thinking as if I knew everything and was always right I wouldn't need to be here, I am fairly new and I am still learning, probably will be long into the future if experience has taught me anything. Won't be throwing my capital figures around again in here, another mistake learnt over the course of this journey

Putty, I am worried about you... so many contradictions in your thinking. You will sell if the announcement is no good, but will hold if the share price fall too far below your average? Does that even make sense? How does your average price got anything to do with the future prospect of this company?

You have a large position, no plan and no exit strategy... evidently you haven't learn from your rookie mistake. You will do yourself a big favour if you write down a plan now, or you will make the wrong emotional decision when the heat is on. Write down what are the possible outcomes, what action you will take for each outcome and check that they make sense.

Not having a go at you personally. This advise is sincere. Good luck.

P.S. I know nothing about the fundamentals of this stock... but I only know it can move up and down 25% in a blink.

 

[skc]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Think i might put a buy in at 48, catching the stops dump when it breaks the trendline
At worst I won't get filled

48c feels tight... unless you keep an eye on the announcement (assuming it goes into a halt) leaving an open limit order on this stock feels risky.

I would fish around 40c probably. Fits my retracement level better.

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Expectations are everything. Risk is a fundamental, and the future of the entire economy is still somewhat uncertain. This will weigh on any share price. An indicator that the economy is recovering, leads to the idea of less risk. Whilst, on the flip side - an indicator that perhaps the economy is not recovering, leads to an increased risk.

Risk will always be built into the price of any investment, and risk is a fundamental.

After all, nobody wants to be the last to leave the party.

to add to what i was saying...

i dont have half of the money invested now that i had 6 weeks ago... and that's purely because i feel like i need to be dancing pretty close to the door with my "at risk capital" given the current market forces we're experiencing

i think one of the biggest movers of the rally from the march lows... well, the last few weeks or months of it and the reasoning behind the volatility we're experiencing now has a HELL of a lot to do with the currency trade and US investors chasing better yields... getting out of the USD and getting into anything else they can get their hands on... and a lot of the "dip" we're seeing now has more to do with the USD than anything else

with that in mind a share like CBA (or any of the other banks for that matter) would be grossly overvalued... purely because of the increased buying pressure rather than TRUE value or risk of the company

 

[Putty7]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

No worries Skc, I have done my research on this stock and I think they have real prospects going into the future as well as the short term, finding the right entry price is always difficult but I am happy with the price I have entered at for the moment with the current situation, if it falls I do not have an automatic stop loss set in place at present as it would have been set off over the last few weeks, I prefer a hands on approach and will be sitting here while the market is open and will monitor what is happening as it happens as opposed to locking in a price on the SP retreating. I've learned not to be emotional about shares when buying and selling, but watching how the market reacts, either strongly or poorly to a share is important in regards to my buying and selling, I took MEO on with this in mind even though MOG also have 15% of the same block in question and have the ability to move with a good announcement, I felt MEO was the safer share with more to offer.

I am sorry if my thoughts seem conflicting, I am not looking to take a loss with regards to my capital, my reasoning to bail out with regards to my SP av. is if I can maintain a slight profit in doing so or pick up more shares as it bottoms out again, otherwise I can pursue my other interests. MEO has more than enough going for it to Hold if I have to over the long term, at the moment I am interested in short term plays and have 9 or 10 earmarked to finish the year with.

Thankyou for your advice it is certainly something I will look at and see if I need to readjust my trading and thinking.

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

here's a chart... i've put some lines on it

what's going to happen?

anyone's guess... but SOMETHING is going to happen

haha... of course

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

broken through our little triangle today and being consistantly chopped by bots

on a side note... something interesting:

MOG has a 15% stake in Artemis… their shares were sitting at 6c… when they acquired the Artimis deal they shot up to 26c….

its owned and run by Albers (he also had a hand in MEO)… MOG issued rights at 18c today

now here’s the clincher (IMO)…. Albers MUST know that the farmin is going to be positive, otherwise the rights will become totally worthless and no one will take them up… i.e. if the farmin was bad MOGs share price would tank back to 6c and no one would take up the rights leaving MOG and Albers up the creek.

DYOR

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

closed at 57.5c up 7.5% for the day and definately breaking out of our triangle

on the chart MACD has turned upwards towards 0 and we're looking at a trigger crossover... if buying is the same on monday we should see it trigger and push through 0

RSI has also turned north as well

my tip is on a monday or tuesday announcement as it is just before MOGs rights issue cut-off date

 

[leedleed45]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

closed at 57.5c up 7.5% for the day and definately breaking out of our triangle

on the chart MACD has turned upwards towards 0 and we're looking at a trigger crossover... if buying is the same on monday we should see it trigger and push through 0

RSI has also turned north as well

my tip is on a monday or tuesday announcement as it is just before MOGs rights issue cut-off date

I hope you are right swm! I have a good feeling about MEO, got in on monday at .54 and happy to hold. We haven't had any announcements or updates since Oct 20 so I think you are right on the money about a something being released early next week.

btw nice job on the commentaries! a pleasure to read about your thoughs! :

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

27 mins in and this thing has already gone from 58c to 61c

we've broken the triangle... so the next level of support/resistance is around the 65c barrier

 

[fureien]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Lol im so glad i made an impulse decision to buy at market at 53cents the other day. best impulse buy ever, beats my gf's impulse buys, at least mine make monies. haha

 

[radioham6]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Thanks SWM79,

Your analysis is a pleasure to read on this stock. Keep up the great work.

I'm holding and waiting.....after today I'm smiling again.

Cheers.

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

thanks guys

with the DOW up this morning it will be interesting to see where this goes today.

as i've said yesterday we've broken out of our triangle, volume is still pretty low and i'm sort of surprised it didnt do more yesterday.

MACD has crossed over the trigger and turned upward toward 0... if it pushes through 0 it will confirm the beginning of our new run up. Bollinger bands have thinned and slightly turned upwards which is another plus

if it keeps tracking up like this i'd be happy if they didnt make the announcement til sometime early next week (considering the AGM is scheduled on the 18th)... just hope that the DOW will hold up for us

interesting times ahead

 

[Lachlan6]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Looking promising. Will look to enter the stock if there is a continued low volume retracement and the stock show's strength in the $0.35 - $0.44 area.

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

I'd say you'd be lucky to hit that zone... although if the farm-in is bad or postponed again you most probably will

however, if it comes before the AGM and it is good/relatively good you wont see that range for quite some time.

big games still being played in this one.

strong resistance in the short term at this current level i.e. 59-61

sellers are STACKED at 2.7:1!

especially after after 62c!!!!

0.620 462,895 (11)
0.625 487,684 (10)
0.630 225,420 (9)
0.635 411,436 (15)
0.640 718,963 (24)

 

[Putty7]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

The price movement from July has been predominantly leading up to the Farm in announcement which was due in September, then October and now all going well by the AGM on the 18th....

WA-360-P Farm-in Progress Report

Key Points:
• Final due diligence meetings scheduled for week commencing 26th October
• Transaction expected to close by MEO’s AGM on 18th November

The key to the deal is the setting of a drill date before year end by either MEO or whoever takes on the farm in, or both, without this they both lose out with MOG picking up 35% of their share of the block, I'm pretty sure any company entering into the farm in would not be keen to see this happen, either would MEO. The rest while important is window dressing.

IMHO the announcement will make or break the SP in the short term.

 

[fureien]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

ugh drop to 56.5. thats a bit too heavy profit taking for my liking.

profit taking or insiders getting out? only 6 days to go. only 4 of which are trading days. cud go either way now really

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

who else likes triangles?

still in the traders hands until we hear any news so i dont think we can get a take on whats going on.

IMO its being kept low and people are getting scared... although the closer and closer we get to an announcement the less people want to give up their holdings.... volume still getting lower.

lots of rumours still floating around as to who the farminee will be - that SHOULD answered sometime before next Wednesday... so not long to go now

lets see if Jurgen will bring us an early Christmas present!

 

[skyQuake]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

IMO this is a false break. There was barely any volume when it broke out of the triangle because everyone was alreadly long.
It should have shot up instead of making lower highs and lower low bars. First the weak hands sell then the burnt brkout trades, then the ones hoping it'll bounce off the first trendline etc.
The potential of the announcement is fairly well know so I would think thats factored in. Looks like a buy the rumor sell the fact.
Good luck.