MAY - Melbana Energy

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

IMO this is a false break. There was barely any volume when it broke out of the triangle because everyone was alreadly long.
It should have shot up instead of making lower highs and lower low bars. First the weak hands sell then the burnt brkout trades, then the ones hoping it'll bounce off the first trendline etc.
The potential of the announcement is fairly well know so I would think thats factored in. Looks like a buy the rumor sell the fact.
Good luck.

damn you sky quake! i hate it when you make good points!

i agree - everyone is already long... thats why we're not seeing the run up that we did to 80c

dont know if its factored in because i believe a lot of people have stayed out to see what will happen - dont want to get burned again

what if its being kept low by the farminee or MEO themselves for the farminee - maybe a proposal to take a holding in MEO on weighted average...???

wouldnt put it past them given how close the AGM is

 

[Putty7]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Well hopefully the waiting and speculation ends this week on MEO's immediate future SP prospects, the AGM is Wednesday and all going well they will announce the Farm in partner and the specifics of the agreement Monday or Tuesday. If it is delayed would be interesting to be a fly on the wall during the AGM.

This taken from May Investor Update ASX announcement (page 16), potential value of the block to MEO....

WA‐360‐P (assume 20% equity) Artemis prospect (~9 Tcf GIP) ~$2.50 value to SP

This taken from MEO website farm in opportunity document....

WA-360-P Draft Farm-in Term Sheet Summary Base Agreement:

To be agreed (based on AIPN standard agreement or mutually acceptable similar agreement)

Share Earned: Up to 50% gross equity

Timing: Seeking farm-in offers by 31 July, 2009. Final terms negotiated with preferred Farminee by mid August, 2009. JV to evaluate new and existing seismic data and decide upon the primary well location by year end.

Key Terms: Key minimum terms are outlined below.

Terms:

Component Minimum Terms Sought:

1. Seismic back Costs

Back costs for 100% of actual costs of MEO and Artemis 3D surveys.
(Approx US$8 million to be verified by reasonable provision of information,
payable at time of execution of Farm-in Agreement)

2. Primary Well Costs

‐ 2:1 Promote on primary well up to 50% equity (i.e. 100% of primary well
costs would earn 50% equity)
‐ Well cost uncapped
‐ Production test included

3. Secondary Well Costs

In the event of a successful primary well (hydrocarbons recovered to
surface):

‐ 1.4:1 Promote for 2 follow-up wells (Promote to be applied to MEO’s
share of well costs. i.e. if earning 50% equity then Farminee to pay 70%
of cost of 2 follow-up wells which is Farminee’s 50% share plus MEO’s
residual 20% share)

4. Other Other terms offered by Farminee to be advised

These are the Farm in conditions sought by MEO, weather it is announced by Wednesday or not it will be interesting to see what they actually got out of the deal, they are looking to be re-imbursed for costs plus free carried for a possible 3 wells. It will also be good to finally see who took the farm in agreement on. If they achieve this it will let them focus on moving forward with the Tassie atoll gas plant plus further exploration and drilling of their surrounding fields for gas to supply it.

Good luck to all holding MEO.

 

[Putty7]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Well I guess that takes Woodside out of the picture, another delay on the final outcome, looking around the middle of December for the final result.

ASX & Media Release

WA-360-P Farm-in Progress Report

Key Points: Preferred Farminee is a major international petroleum and energy company Commercial due diligence visit during week of 26th October finalised all outstanding commercial terms Arrangements to accommodate future implementation of an integrated LNG project have been agreed Farminee Board of Director approval required for entry to Australia. Next meeting scheduled mid December MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA (16th November, 2009) MEO Australia Limited (“MEO”) provides the following progress report in relation to its WA-360-P Exploration Permit.

The preferred Farminee is a major international petroleum and energy company. Its reputation, size and independence will provide substantial long term benefits for MEO. This opportunity is the first entry into Australia for the preferred Farminee and will require Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) approval.

All technical due diligence was successfully completed prior to the Indicative Offer being submitted to MEO. This transaction involved the resolution of complex issues beyond those for a simple farm-in agreement. Commercial due diligence negotiations to finalise all outstanding commercial terms were concluded during the week of October 26th.

Additional analysis and discussion was required with respect to the potential implementation of an integrated LNG project in the event of exploration success. The necessary arrangements to deal with this potential outcome were agreed and will facilitate alignment and effective operation of the new joint venture.

The preferred Farminee’s executive management have advised MEO that Board of Director approval is required when establishing activities in a new country. The next board meeting is scheduled for mid December. It is expected that after this meeting, the preferred Farminee will have the necessary approval to execute binding agreements which will be subject only to Australian regulatory approvals.

While MEO remains confident that the transaction will be finalised, the company cannot guarantee this outcome. MEO thanks shareholders for their understanding.

 

[doogle]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Well I guess that takes Woodside out of the picture, another delay on the final outcome, looking around the middle of December for the final result.

They need permission from their Board/Chairman before going ahead...that sounds to me like it could be the Chinese??? Things could get complciated if the Federal International Investment Commission thingy has to get involved...we could be waiting even longer - although we will know who it is.

 

[Pivotonian]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

They need permission from their Board/Chairman before going ahead...that sounds to me like it could be the Chinese???

I would have though that virtually any company listed on any reputable stock exchange in the world would need board approval for something like this.

 

[skc]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Putty, I assume you are still gonna hold until the next announcement? Or you going to deploy your capital elsewhere?

Pretty low volume fall today so no one is panicking yet.

I would have though that virtually any company listed on any reputable stock exchange in the world would need board approval for something like this.

Read the announcement again.. they said they need Chairman Mao's approval.

BTW, your avatar is quite unpleasant. Would you consider changing it for the good of the community?

 

[Putty7]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Putty, I assume you are still gonna hold until the next announcement? Or you going to deploy your capital elsewhere?

Pretty low volume fall today so no one is panicking yet.



Read the announcement again.. they said they need Chairman Mao's approval.

BTW, your avatar is quite unpleasant. Would you consider changing it for the good of the community?

Sold at .57c today, looking elsewhere but will monitor SP and maybe get back in closer to the announcement, theres no panic IMHO, even if things are delayed MEO could commit to drilling before next year to keep their block interest and look for re-imbursement from farm in partner, the idea of an LNG plant into the deal is interesting and long term would be good for MEO but may change the structure of the original farm in depending on who gets what and who is paying for what, I think the upside for MEO is still very good and the day traders should keep the SP busy for another month.

 

[doogle]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Sold at .57c today, looking elsewhere but will monitor SP and maybe get back in closer to the announcement, theres no panic IMHO, even if things are delayed MEO could commit to drilling before next year to keep their block interest and look for re-imbursement from farm in partner, the idea of an LNG plant into the deal is interesting and long term would be good for MEO but may change the structure of the original farm in depending on who gets what and who is paying for what, I think the upside for MEO is still very good and the day traders should keep the SP busy for another month.

I agree no need to panic - I have been patient all this time waiting for the really good news and it is here finally - just depends how good the news is. I think it is Chinese...hasn't Chevron got enough...I guess it could be a Shell but the Chinese are moving in on anything they can get there hands on - that is why I am going for them!

 

[Pivotonian]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

BTW, your avatar is quite unpleasant. Would you consider changing it for the good of the community?

I quite like the avatar, but then again I'm a sick bastard.

I don't want to offend anyone though, so I'm happy to change it if thats the case.

 

[Nyden]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

I agree no need to panic - I have been patient all this time waiting for the really good news and it is here finally - just depends how good the news is. I think it is Chinese...hasn't Chevron got enough...I guess it could be a Shell but the Chinese are moving in on anything they can get there hands on - that is why I am going for them!

How can you talk up a stock that's down 8% on the close? It's as though there's no risk, and you're only concerned as to 'how much' profit you're going to make. There isn't even a case for a possible loss?

 

[skc]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

A bit of coiling triangle forming... a continuation pattern that some believes sit mid way through a move. In that case the downside target is ~30c. Good support at 35-40c should the stock ever go down that far.

It is also possible for a little 5th leg up in that coiling triangle before it travels down.

And of course possible for the stock to just go sideways or up..

I quite like the avatar, but then again I'm a sick bastard.

I don't want to offend anyone though, so I'm happy to change it if thats the case.

Thank you. You are a gentleman.

 

[doogle]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

How can you talk up a stock that's down 8% on the close? It's as though there's no risk, and you're only concerned as to 'how much' profit you're going to make. There isn't even a case for a possible loss?

Ah yep I am only concerned how much profit I am going to make. Sorry about that...I sincerely apologise if anyone is convinced/affected by my 'ramping up' - please do your own research and ignore mine.

 

[bigdog]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

17-11-2009 09:05 AM MEO Trading Halt
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01011532

Request for trading halt
MEO Australia Limited (ASX: MEO) requests a trading halt of its shares of up to 2 days effective immediately pending an announcement regarding the outcome of a potential capital raising by MEO.

For the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 17.1, MEO provides the following information:
(a) the trading halt is necessary as otherwise trading in MEO shares may take
place in an uninformed market, and to allow the capital raising to take place in
an orderly fashion;
(b) MEO requests that the trading halt remain in place until it is in a position to make an announcement to the market regarding the outcome of the capital
raising. MEO anticipates that an announcement will be made prior to the
commencement of normal trading on 19 November 2009 and the trading halt
will cease at that time; and
(c) MEO is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted.

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

been away from this for a while and wow, lots of goings on here.

lots of speculations as to what is going on too.

IMO the announcement is a positive. there is a major who is very keen to get onboard. obviously with very deep pockets as they are willing to integrate in MEO's other projects... and i believe this may have been the deal

while there are still issues to take care of i'm quietly confident that the deal will go through... possibly surprising on the upside

JUST MY OPINION... DYOR

Putty, you're out??? just when it was getting exciting!!!

 

[skyQuake]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

been away from this for a while and wow, lots of goings on here.

lots of speculations as to what is going on too.

IMO the announcement is a positive. there is a major who is very keen to get onboard. obviously with very deep pockets as they are willing to integrate in MEO's other projects... and i believe this may have been the deal

while there are still issues to take care of i'm quietly confident that the deal will go through... possibly surprising on the upside

JUST MY OPINION... DYOR

Putty, you're out??? just when it was getting exciting!!!

Cap raising positive? Maybe in the long run. Short run definite negative with placement and SPP holding the price down.
The fact is the company is trying to raise money rather than a major trying to get on board. Removal of debt will be a positive though, as is financing of further operations in the mid to long term.

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

Cap raising positive? Maybe in the long run. Short run definite negative with placement and SPP holding the price down.
The fact is the company is trying to raise money rather than a major trying to get on board. Removal of debt will be a positive though, as is financing of further operations in the mid to long term.

yeah, i'm talking mid-term

granted they are raising money but it can only serve them well, IMO. They need to tie up loose ends and commit to drill... without a CR the whole thing stands to fall over in a heap... i'd rather my SP waiver around the 40-50c mark short term than drop to 10c and never recover!

also i'm thinking that the tie up on artemis with the "major international petroleum and energy company" with "potential implementation of an integrated LNG project in the event of exploration sucess" has to put a positive spotlight on them whatever the short term SP volitility

 

[skc]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

IMO the announcement is a positive.

Putty, you're out??? just when it was getting exciting!!!

There is always at least one in every stock discussion thread...

Thinking everything is positive, interpreting announcements only in positive light, practically married to their idea about a stock.

Anyway, looks like the predictive power of the dotted lines on my chart is real.

 

[Nyden]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

There is always at least one in every stock discussion thread...

Thinking everything is positive, interpreting announcements only in positive light, practically married to their idea about a stock.

Anyway, looks like the predictive power of the dotted lines on my chart is real.

One? I'd say this thread had about 3. Like I said, "apparently" this stock can only go up

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

There is always at least one in every stock discussion thread...

Thinking everything is positive, interpreting announcements only in positive light, practically married to their idea about a stock.

Anyway, looks like the predictive power of the dotted lines on my chart is real.

come off it skc.

is that all you can add? a snide remark and a faulty chart...

so i'm commited to my investment. big deal. i have a lot of dollars tied up in this one and have held it for quite a while so you'll appreciate why i might portray this with such optimism and hope

if you have an alternate point of view based on the fundamentals and the info provided i'd like to hear it

what's your take?

or will you just hide behind your charts and "predictive dotted lines"... your last prediction on this stock has played out REALLY well

 

[swm79]

Re: MEO - Methanol Australia

One? I'd say this thread had about 3. Like I said, "apparently" this stock can only go up

is that all you've got to say?

provide some rebuttal as to why you imply that the only way is down or jog on to HC and post over there