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May 2024 DDD

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Full release: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2304

This is with equity prices at near all time highs. Equity prices drive tax receipts. The US is highly financialised.






Bit cagey on how they arrive at 'net interest', however:



As Mr Ferguson wrote: empires that spend more on debt than their military do not remain empires.

I'm still expecting a higher issuance at the short end.

jog on
duc
 


Full: https://www.ft.com/content/657233b0-c9d3-4d4d-a1ab-d4417d14c61e



Full: https://www.ft.com/content/efc7c54f-7ec2-4831-b436-8437d65ba6f4





  • The Prices Paid component of ISM Manufacturing has moved up to its highest level since June 2022, potentially signaling higher inflation for longer. This was a leading indicator of the inflationary spike in 2021-22.



The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 17 out of the last 18 months.
The ISM Services PMI moved below 50 in April for the first time since December 2022.
Since 2008, the only periods when both PMIs have been below 50 at the same time:
  • July 2008 – July 2009 (Recession)
  • April – May 2020 (Recession)
  • December 2022
  • Today


11) A Few Interesting Stats…
a) US Stock Market Capitalization as % of GDP…
  • 1984: 42%
  • 1994: 63%
  • 2004: 93%
  • 2014: 114%
  • 2024: 187%





So this dichotomy remains: horrible fundamentals shrugged off by the market. For the time being, for the broad market just pinch your nose and remain long. Financials (which I hate) looks to be revving up for a move higher (XLF). Go figure. Even XLRE looks to be preparing for a move higher.

Commodities, which longer term I'm very bullish on, CPER, looks to be preparing for a leg down. If it does retrace I'll be a buyer. I'm a BTD in XLE (buying on 2 May at $92.06). Energy is a political hot potato and is subject to lots of volatility. I will (I'm sure) occasionally buy a falling knife. This is not great, but I'll carry the short term loss. The entire battle over Gold v USD hinges on oil. Spoiler alert: the USD is going to lose really badly.

The Fed have lost control of inflation. The Treasury are fighting hard with the Fed to maintain liquidity. QT is history. QRA will shift to the front end of the curve, higher short term rates for longer will bleed money from bank deposits to short term paper (for those paying attention). ISDA if passed will create Bank demand at the long end, crisis averted. ISDA is simply a hidden QE.

The only red flag that will remain visible is the debt and interest payments on that debt. Assuming of course it is still reported.

Inflation is so under-reported for the last 40yrs, I'm sure new calculations, metrics, etc. will get it down as far as the official stats. are concerned. Whether we can afford to eat etc. will be a moot point.

Speculation remains (very) high:


Zero-Day Options Boom Will Only Grow Even As Some Investors Fear Disaster​




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Zero-Day Options Boom Will Only Grow Even As Some Investors Fear Disaster​


Sam Potter and Lu Wang
Tue, May 7, 2024, 12:20 AM GMT+124 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Two years after Wall Street’s love affair with fast-twitch stock options began, Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey suggests the unprecedented boom still has room to run — even as almost half of respondents fear an eventual blowup.
Most Read from Bloomberg

With the notional value of zero-days-to-expiration contracts tied to the S&P 500 hitting roughly $862 billion in April, almost 90% of 300 MLIV Pulse respondents said they expect the growth to continue. The twist? They're about evenly split on whether it will grow steadily or end in calamity.

Equity derivatives with less than 24 hours to expiration, known as 0DTE, have become one of Wall Street’s most popular trades as investors big and small seek to navigate uncertainty over the economy and central bank policy. Trading in 0DTE made up 45% of the total options volume for the S&P 500 last year, about double the level from before the products became widely available in the second quarter of 2022.

“The exchanges are making money hand over fist by allowing daily options. As you’ve seen, the volume has gone up because more and more people have access to it,” said Phil Pecsok, chief investment officer of Anacapa Advisors. “They’re only going to become more prevalent.”

The scale of the boom has stirred controversy. There are concerns the activity in ultra-short-dated options may be affecting stock volatility, while research has suggested that retail investors using them mostly lose money.

A majority of survey contributors showed awareness of the latter risk, with 56% expressing the view that it’s too easy to lose money with the tools. But the concerns didn’t extend to limiting retail access to 0DTE, with 76% of respondents — almost two thirds of whom are professional investors — saying it was only fair to keep them easily available.

Initially picked up by high-frequency traders to make wagers or hedge positions, zero-day options are gaining traction among sophisticated quant pros and small-fry investors alike. They have also found their way to the exchange-traded funds arena.

Both academic and Wall Street researchers have flagged potential dangers with this wave of trading, including that it may make the market more volatile on an intraday basis. JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic has warned their popularity risks reprising past disasters such as the 2018 Volmageddon episode, a famous blowup that shattered a lengthy calm in US stocks. The theory is that a big stock move could force options dealers, who take the other side of trades and must buy and sell shares to keep a market-neutral stance, to unwind a large amount of their own positions, accelerating any selloff.

The exchange at the center of the boom, Cboe Global Markets Inc., has argued that the wide range of use cases for 0DTE means the trades aren’t creating the kind of crowded one-way bet that might make the market vulnerable to shocks. Cboe expanded expirations of S&P 500 options to every work day about two years ago and later also allowed zero-day options for the Russell 2000 Index.

In the latest expansion, Nasdaq Inc. said it plans more short-term options on commodities and Treasury ETFs.

Opinions about the impact of 0DTE on the underlying market were fairly evenly split in the MLIV survey. Only around a quarter of respondents said they worried a lot about it, with 34% not worried and 41% only a bit worried.

Asked how they would describe 0DTE, the MLIV Pulse contributors — who are predominantly in the US or Europe — were often scathing. “Gambling” was the most common phrase offered. A “slot machine in Vegas,” “atom bombs,” and “tools resulting in a wealth transfer from retail and unsophisticated institutions to exchanges and market makers,” were among the negative descriptions.

The positive contributors largely focused on their usefulness as a hedging tool. As one participant said: “It is a fairly inexpensive way for investors to take a position in the directional move of a stock without having to own the underlying shares.”

So far, 0DTE are available only for major indexes and exchange-traded funds. Their popularity has fueled speculation that zero-day contracts could be broadened to cover single stocks. Asked about that potential expansion, survey respondents were perfectly divided.

jog on

duc
 
Buffett:

Treasury bills are now all the rage at Berkshire Hathaway. They have been earning between 5.0% and 5.5% since mid-2023, and Warren Buffett decided they’re a great deal, rather than stocks at current prices, and loaded up on them.

At the end of March, the huge conglomerate held $153 billion in T-bills, up by $24 billion from three months earlier, and up by nearly $50 billion from March 2023, and up by $86 billion from March 2022 ($67 billion), according to BRK’s 10-Q filings. The year 2022 was when T-bills began paying a noticeable interest once again.

If BRK earns an average of 5.3% on its T-bills in the current quarter, that would be about $2.4 billion in interest income with zero risk. By comparison, it reported $15.7 billion in total pre-tax income for Q1. So the income from T-bills matters.

Total T-bills, cash, and cash equivalent jumped to $189 billion, up by $21 billion in three months, and up by $59 billion year-over-year ($130 billion in Q1 2023).


Excluding the amounts held by “Railroad, Utilities and Energy” companies, total T-bills and cash jumped to $182 billion, and Buffett said at the shareholder meeting that it was “a fair assumption” that it would grow to $200 billion by the end of June, and that he was “quite satisfied” with that position. Cash is king.

Converting Apple shares to T-bills.​

While loading up on T-bills – of which the government has been issuing a tsunami on a weekly basis – BRK dumped 13% of its stake in Apple in Q1, or about 116 million shares, after having sold about 10 million shares in the prior quarter. Apple remains BRK’s largest stock position, with a value of $135.4 billion on March 31, according to BRK’s 10-Q filing today.

Obviously, Buffett praised Apple and the stock, because BRK was still holding $135.4 billion as of March 31, and he doesn’t want to tank the shares before he can unload more of them.

But he did sell Apple, and bought T-bills with the proceeds, instead of other stocks, and that ballooning pile of interest-earning cash became a topic at the shareholder meeting on Saturday, and he was asked why he wasn’t putting this cash to work – though it’s actually working just fine, producing 5%-plus risk free.

Earning 5%-plus risk free while waiting for bad stuff to happen.​

“I don’t think anyone sitting at this table has any idea how to use it [the cash] effectively, and therefore we don’t use it,” Buffett said.

“We’d love to spend it, but we won’t spend it unless we think we’re doing something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money,” he said.

“We only swing at pitches we like,” he said. And right now, they’re not liking anything other than T-bills.

“As the world gets more sophisticated, complicated and intertwined, more can go wrong,” and the company wants to be able to “act when that happens,” he said. Waiting for a big drop in share prices, to put this cash to work at reasonable price levels?

Obviously…​

When Buffett gets unexcited about stocks, dark-ish about their potential, waits for them to drop, dumps a big pile of Apple, and invests in T-bills — and explains why — suddenly no one takes him seriously anymore.

The financial media drag out voices that kindly brush it all off. Just an old folksy guy on his way out. It’s only when he hypes stocks, or a particular stock, that the financial media and the other organs of Wall Street see him as the Oracle of Omaha and jump in behind him. Some things are just funny, without anyone wanting them to be funny.



Full: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/brics-to-create-its-very-own-central-bank/







Biden Ready To Use SPR Again If Oil Prices Rise​


BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, MAY 08, 2024 - 05:40 AM
Several weeks after we reported that - very unsurprisingly - the Biden admin had halted its laughable attempts to refill the SPR as oil prices soared (having missed its entire window to do so when WTI was trading in the low $70s), we speculated that it may be only a matter of time before the senile president decides to start draining the strategic reserve all over again to keep gas prices low ahead of the election.

Now we get confirmation of just that: as OilPrice reports, President Biden will use crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve should the need arise, energy adviser Amos Hochstein has said, noting there was enough oil in the reserve, which of course is true but what it misses is that under Biden the SPR has already been drained by half.

Full: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biden-ready-use-spr-again-if-oil-prices-rise

Oil News:

International organizations are increasingly sounding the tocsin on shrinking crude inventories, with the IEA indicating Q2 2024 would see demand surpass supply by a whopping 900,000 b/d, the first two consecutive negative quarters since late 2021.

- With OPEC+ curbing supply by means of Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s voluntary production cuts, the end of refinery maintenance in Europe and Asia as well as recovering manufacturing activity in both the US and China would suggest an increase in fuel use.

- According to Kpler, Chinese crude inventories marked a two-year low at the beginning of April and even though they have built since then, at 944 million barrels they are some 50 million barrels lower than a year ago.

- With US refining back to running close to full capacity at 15.8 million b/d, US crude inventories should start their seasonal descent soon, currently trending around 460 million barrels, shot-for-shot replicating last year’s levels.

Market Movers

- Colombia’s national oil company Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) is preparing to participate in the Andean country’s first-ever offshore wind auction, looking for a bid partner that would have the technical experience.

- Energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is negotiating a sale of its gas station business in Malaysia, the second-largest in the country, to Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) in a deal worth around $1 billion.

- Chinese oil giant Sinopec (SHA:600028) is reportedly in talks with Pembina Pipeline Corp. to buy a stake in Canada’s Cedar LNG project and guarantee a 1.5 mtpa offtake agreement from the facility, i.e. half its production capacity.

Tuesday, May 05, 2024

Just when it seemed that the geopolitical risk premium had all but evaporated from oil prices, Israel rejected the Egypt-brokered ceasefire proposal and its army started the long-mooted Rafah operation. The return of Middle Eastern tension and aggressive Saudi Arabian pricing for June cargoes, understood to be a harbinger of an OPEC+ production cut extension come June 1, should provide some resistance to the bearish pressure that has been building in oil markets.

Russia’s Oil Revenues Double Year-on-Year. Russia’s oil revenue more than doubled year-on-year to $11.5 billion in April, with higher crude differentials further boosted by a weakening national currency, as global insurance firms are calling the G7 oil price cap policy “increasingly unenforceable”.

Chevron Eyes Gulf of Mexico Output Boost. This year’s most prominent addition to crude output in the US Gulf of Mexico, Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) 75,000 b/d Anchor floating production unit located in the Green Canyon offshore area, is set to reach first oil by mid-year.

India’s Refining Buildout Slows Down. As India’s Modi government targets 9 million b/d of refining capacity by 2030, refiners are running into time overruns with Chennai Petroleum delaying the launch of its 180,000 b/d Nagapattinam refinery by the end of 2027.

US Natgas Prices Bounce Back from Slump. US natural gas Henry Hub futures strengthened 3% on Monday to $2.2 per mmBtu amidst a higher domestic pull on feedgas to LNG export plants, as Trains 1 and 2 of Freeport LNG in Texas returned from inspection and repairs.

China Opens Up EV Sector to Foreign Investors. The Chinese government has introduced new supportive measures to boost investment into non-fossil-fuel vehicles, removing all restrictions on foreign investment, amidst rumors that Beijing would remove traffic restrictions on Tesla’s EVs.

Braskem Shares Collapse on End of ADNOC Talks. According to Reuters, the national oil company of Abu Dhabi ADNOC has terminated talks to buy a controlling stake in Brazil’s top petrochemical producer Braskem (NYSE:BAK), sending the latter’s shares down some 15% in just one day.

India Wants to Buy Venezuelan Oil Despite Sanctions. India’s largest oil refiner Reliance Industries has resubmitted a request to the US Treasury for authorization to import crude from Venezuela, right after the White House granted upstream firm Maurel&Prom a 2-year waiver.

European Majors Flock to Namibia’s Waters. Azule Energy, a joint venture of oil majors BP (NYSE:BP) and ENI (BIT:ENI), farmed into Namibia’s offshore Orange Basin, signing up for a 42.5% stake in Block 2914A in the immediate vicinity of the recent multi-billion-barrel Mopane find.

Nigeria Hints at Easier Exit for Majors. Nigeria’s disgruntled oil producers such as ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) or Shell (LON:SHEL) would be allowed to exit the African country’s onshore fields quicker if they take responsibility for oil spills and pay up, said the country’s regulator NUPRC.

Russia Ships Fuel to North Korea. According to the White House, Russia has been silently shipping refined petroleum products to North Korea at a level higher than the US-imposed price cap, even though UN sanctions limit its imports at 500,000 barrels of refined producers a year.

Outlook for 2024 Copper Supply Downgraded. The International Copper Study Group lowered its 2024 copper supply forecast, seeing the forecasted 467,000-ton glut decrease to 162,000 tons on the heels of First Quantum shutting the Cobre Panama mine, 5% of global production.

French Oil Major Accused of Terror Negligence. French prosecutors opened an investigation against oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) after survivors of the 2021 Islamic State attack on the Mozambique LNG project accused it of negligence and indirect manslaughter, saying it failed to ensure the safety of subcontractors.

China Allocates More Product Export Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce has granted product export quotas to 7 state-controlled and private sector companies, allocating 14 million tons and disappointing the market as the first batch is already used at 87% and refiners want to clear their high stocks.



jog on
duc
 



So the market is pretty choppy currently.



I still have it moving higher.

The test now will likely occur at former highs. These are just not that far away. Which way it goes I think is a toss up.

I caveat that with: it is a pullback from a longer term intermediate trend. Which simply means that while you would expect the trend to continue there is still some doubt.

The doubt rests on the fundamentals.

Stagflation, recession, geo-politics, national politics, USD, etc.

I am a mixture of long and short. Overall my portfolio is...bleh. Going nowhere particular. So my longs are rising with the market, but not on an equivalent basis, slower. The shorts are losing, but a bit quicker. LOL. The worst of all worlds.

So mostly I check all my positions, do nothing and drink copious amounts of coffee.

Gold continues to do well, although taking a bit of a breather atm.

jog on
duc
 


@peter2

I hold FE rather than XLU. I thought (incorrectly) that FE would have more spice. XLU on fire. Utilities are definitely in the defensive sector due to generally high divs.

This time however I think they are part and parcel of the US infrastructure build out. So this time (could) be different.




jog on
duc
 
Copper:

BlackRock Says $12,000 Copper Is Needed to Incentivize New Mines

Copper needs to reach $12,000 a ton — a 20% jump from this week’s high — to incentivize large-scale investments in new mines, said Olivia Markham, who co-manages the BlackRock World Mining Fund.
www.bloomberg.com













Oil News:

Friday, May 10th 2024

Oil prices are once again climbing after several weeks of declines. Falling US crude inventories and robust Chinese imports have sparked some bullish sentiment in oil markets. Brent futures are set to post their first weekly gain since early April, moving closer to $85 per barrel, further boosted by the easing of the US labor market (jobless claims the highest in eight months) and Israel’s Rafah operation.

Shell Sells Singapore Refinery to Glencore Consortium. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) has confirmed the sale of its 237,000 b/d Bukom refinery in Singapore to global trading house Glencore and Indonesian chemicals firm PT Chandra Asti in a deal worth some $1 billion.

Trump Vows to Reverse Biden Oil Policy. According to media reports, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump vowed to reverse the Biden administration’s environmental rules and halt the current freeze on new LNG export terminals, asking them to raise $1 billion for his campaign.

China Boosts Oil Imports. China’s oil imports have risen year-over-year to about 10.88 million b/d last month, a 5.5% increase compared to April 2023, with refinery activity boosted by high-flying activity during the Labour Day holiday and also improving manufacturing activity.

Guyana Approves Joint Consortium Bid. Guyana’s government has greenlighted a bid for the shallow water block S-4 from TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE), Petronas, and QatarEnergy, marking the first acreage to be allotted in the country since ExxonMobil landed the Stabroek block in 1999.

Suncor Eyes Full Control of TMX Exports. Canada’s oil major Suncor Energy (TSO:SU) will be leasing Aframax tankers to deliver crude oil shipped on the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, avoiding third-party commodity trading shops, as it seeks to ramp up flows to PADD 5.

US Government Resumes SPR Purchases. The US Department of Energy issued a solicitation for a new refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve now that WTI prices dropped to $79 per barrel, seeking to purchase 3.3 million barrels of oil for an October delivery to the Big Hill storage facility.

Insurance Firms Dismiss Chevron’s Iram Claim. Three insurance companies have rejected the claim of US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) over the seizure of its oil cargo that was seized by Iran last year, as the Chevron-chartered tanker Advantage Sweet was confiscated by the Iranian military in April 2023.

Trafigura Boosts Renewable Portfolio. Global commodity trader Trafigura has agreed to expand its ownership of UK-based biodiesel firm Greenergy after buying the company’s European business, now taking over all Canadian assets for an undisclosed sum.

US Puts Pressure on Malaysia’s Iran Ties. The US Treasury is poised to target Iran’s export capacities by targeting service providers in Singapore and Malaysia as approximately half of the Middle Eastern country’s exports carry out ship-to-ship transfers in the Malacca Strait, to be further shipped to China.

Platinum Set for Biggest Deficit In A Decade. The platinum market is set for the largest supply shortfall in 10 years as Russia produces less and industrial demand remains firm, according to catalyst maker Johnson Matthey, with the deficit widening to 598,000 ounces from last year’s 518,000oz.

Texas Power Prices Surge on High Demand. Electricity prices in Texas increased almost 100-fold this week, with ERCOT reporting spot prices at the North Hub jumping to $3,000 per MWh, as unusually warm weather boosts cooling demand amidst underperforming wind power generation.

Mexico Wants a Bigger Say in Pemex Operations. As the Mexican government continues to keep its national oil firm Pemex afloat despite some $45 billion of maturing debt over the next 3 years, the country’s Finance Ministry said it wants to have a bigger say in the investment decisions taken.

Saudi Aramco Ups Capital Expenditures. Despite Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut back its production capacity expansion, the Saudi NOC reported a 23.8% increase in capital expenditure in Q1 2024, boosted by new investments into natural gas, renewables, and lower-carbon fuels.

In the S&P 1500, which encompasses the large-cap S&P 500, the Mid Cap 400, and the Small Cap 600, there are just under 1,175 stocks that have positive next-year EPS estimates and trailing 12-month revenues of more than $1 billion. We wanted to see which stocks of this group currently have the highest and lowest forward price-to-sales ratios. For those that aren't familiar with the price-to-sales ratio, it's simply a stock's current market cap divided by annual sales (in this case, forward 12-month consensus sales estimates).

Of the 1,150+ stocks that fit our initial criteria, the average stock currently has a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.59, but the median is significantly lower at 1.73.

Notably, 31 stocks currently have forward P/S ratios greater than 10, meaning their market cap is 10x larger than projected annual sales. That's a very high P/S ratio, and the company better be growing significantly if it hopes to maintain that type of multiple. Collectively, these 31 stocks are up an average of 43.34% over the last year! Below is the list for those interested.

NVIDIA (NVDA) currently has the highest forward price-to-sales ratio at 18.9. Its shares are up 211.7% over the last year.

Five other stocks have P/S ratios above 15: Fair Isaac (FICO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Cadence Design (CDNS), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and Monolithic Power (MPWR). Credit card companies Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) both have 14x P/S ratios, and a few other very notable large-caps that have 10+ P/S ratios include Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), and Texas Instruments (TXN). Clearly, many of the Tech stocks on this list have seen massive gains since late 2022 from the current AI boom, and investors are still expecting BIG things in the years ahead to justify these kinds of multiples. They have a lot to live up to indeed.
​
On the flip side are the stocks with the lowest price-to-sales ratios. There are currently 338 stocks with forward P/S ratios that are less than one, meaning their market caps are lower than annual sales estimates. When sales are greater than market cap, companies typically have very low (and usually declining) margins. Many of the names below with P/S ratios of 0.20 or lower come from slow and steady groups like wholesale food distributors, big box retail, or large health care insurance providers.

Whereas the 31 stocks with 10+ P/S ratios are up 43% over the last year, the group of stocks below are only up an average of 6% YoY. While many of these names are and will continue to be on a downward trajectory in the coming years, we're confident that a few will end up turning around their margin situations, especially if we see a disinflationary environment. Now go dig deeper and find them!
​


Utilities (obviously red hot as there are all sorts of charts, data, etc.)

The Utilities sector has been the second best of the eleven S&P 500 sectors so far in 2024, and it's the best performing sector so far in May.

The sector has been on fire.

Pretty much all readings are now very extended to the upside, including P/E ratio!
​


With AI and other new technologies demanding so much more electricity, have investors woken up to the fact that the companies providing it stand to benefit?
​

In this group I hold FE. Extremely overbought.






Currently, despite the fundamental backdrop, which remains horrible, you just have to be long stocks.

Just a word on those Utilities: where the AI revolution requires more power and utilities provide it, where does the energy come from to generate that electricity? It's certainly not solar panels or wind turbines. It is oil/gas. If you are bullish Utilities you have to be bullish Energy.



jog on
duc
 
Returns during inflation.





Last week:







Next week:



Tuesday Fed Chair Powell has a chat.
Wednesday CPI numbers.

Both days could increase vol.





Market is at a PP. The question is does it pass straight through or pullback first?



I like XLV for a long (this week at least)



At least to the PP at $146.19

I hold MRK as a short




jog on
duc
 
Last edited:
Of those $752 billion in newly issued bonds this year through April, junk bond issuance nearly doubled. Junk bonds are those with credit ratings of BB+ and below (here’s our corporate bond ratings cheat sheet):

  • Investment grade: $635 billion, +31% year-over-year
  • Junk bonds: $117 billion, +95% year-over-year.


Then there is this headline:




So liquidity is ample for corporates. Liquidity is at critical for UST. There is a sovereign debt bubble. This is the first sovereign debt bubble for 100yrs. The last one was post WWI and drove the Great Depression in the 1930's when it popped.

Without a doubt the Fed will inflate it away. They are trying to make it look however that they are acting responsibly towards inflation by keeping rates higher for longer. What they are actually trying to do is thread the needle, which if they fail could cause a really serious problem.

Eventually they will fail.

Mr fff



Nothing like a bit of rampant speculation. Highly correlated to frothy toppy markets.

From JC,

10 weeks of no returns​

MAY 11, 2024 BY JC

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Months and months are going by with little to no progress at all in the major U.S. Stock Market Indexes.
Just look at the returns by sector since the beginning of March.
The leaders have been Utilities, Energy and Consumer Staples.
The biggest losers are the investors who’ve owned Technology and Consumer Discretionary.
Here, see for yourself:

10 weeks of nothing.
That’s 20% of the entire year gone! Just like that.
All this while Gold is up 13% during this same period.
Copper and Silver are each up over 20% during this period.
This is just the kind of market we’ve been in.
We don’t have to pretend that the past few months have been like things were last year.
They haven’t been.
In fact, look at High Beta Stocks and how they stopped outperforming Low Volatility at the end of last year.
This is also when Junk Bonds and Small-cap stocks stopped going up:

As messy as the market has been over the past few months, we are starting to see some signs of a potential recovery.
Look at the spike in the percentage of stocks above both their 50 day and 200 day moving averages.
Meanwhile, the stocks that have been more messy, below their 50 day but above their 200 day, have started to decline.
In other words, we’re starting to see a few more uptrends and a few less sideways trends.
It’s not like everything has now changed for the better. But I’d say that it’s a start….

There are trades to be had in this market.
In fact, we put on a bull call spread this week in $DJT betting on continued upside over the coming months.
Here are all the details on that trade.


From Pring: https://www.pring.com/fedrates/

Why the Fed may need to raise rates.

Return of football: https://www.insidehook.com/sports/dominant-nfl-isnt-waiting-bust-out-big-guns-start-season



Earnings plays this time have been pretty woeful. I play them, love earnings plays, but they have been very tricky to date. I don't hold NFLX, but I understand that it was a pretty bad outcome.

I saw the following headline earlier this week:


I didn’t even need to read the actual article to know what the message would be. The tell here was the term ‘veteran forecaster’.

In finance-speak, veteran forecaster can be translated to mean someone who is supremely confident in their predictions but almost always wrong.

It has to be this way because forecasters are so unreliable. Yet the financial media loves certainty so they keep bringing them back on again and again. Certainty sells better than nuance.

That’s the game.

There are plenty of other Wall Street terms that have their own translations.

Here are some of my favorites (as translated by the team at A Wealth of Common Sense):

I’m cautiously optimistic.

Translation: I have no idea what’s going to happen.

We’re constructive on the stock market.

Translation: I wanted to say bullish but this is a way to both sound smart and hedge at the same time just in case I’m wrong.

It’s trading at fair value.

Translation: I have no idea what this thing is worth so hopefully the market does.

We’re a boutique investment firm.

Translation: We’re small and don’t manage very much money but we’d like to be bigger. Please give us money.

It’s a proprietary trading system.

Translation: Everyone else on Wall Street uses this same model but calls it something different.

This is a bubble.

Translation: I’m not invested in that asset that went up a lot.

We’re the smart money.

Translation: We pay ridiculously high fees for “sophisticated” investment products.

You’re being paid to wait in this stock.

Translation: The dividend yield is high for a reason. The stock stinks.

This asset has an asymmetric risk payoff.

Translation: I’ve read The Big Short two-and-a-half times…okay I watched the movie once.

The easy money has been made.

Translation: I didn’t make any of it.

We’ll give you all of the upside without any of the downside.

Translation: This strategy is either going to blow up in spectacular fashion or get smoked during the next bull market.

Sell in May and go away.

Translation: My research process relies exclusively on rhyming. I also buy when prices are high.

Wall Street guru.

Translation: This guy wears a bow tie.

We prefer to gauge performance over a full market cycle.

Translation: We are massively underperforming.

I’m not wrong, just early.

Translation: I’m wrong but don’t think I won’t move the goalposts if I stay wrong.

It’s a Ponzi scheme.

Translation: I disagree with that thing but don’t actually know what a Ponzi scheme really is.

They predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Here’s why they say the next one will be even bigger!

Translation: They also predicted a crisis in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, etc. They got lucky, were “right” once, and have lived off that call ever since.

I’m a contrarian.

Translation: Just like everyone else in finance.

We’re waiting for the dust to settle.

Translation: We get fearful when others are fearful.







At a PP.

The market this week will be news driven. We have two of consequence: CPI number and Powell. It could go either way. Toss a coin.

I have lightened up. Positioned for a pull back rather than a further advance. I had better numbers on Friday. Everything is off the Friday highs by a bit.

However, speculation is rife, credit for corporates is loosey goosey so just as easily, we move higher and break to new all-time-highs.

Where is the pain? Probably lower. I think most of the shorts have been squeezed out by this point. Time to squeeze the longs. Sharp pullback lower, followed by a furious rally higher.



Option data agrees: time for a pullback.

jog on
duc
 


Leveraged loans are traded in the leveraged loan market and are tracked by the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index.

Since they come with floating interest rates, their interest payments increase when the Fed hikes its policy rates, unlike fixed-rate bonds, and so they hold their value, which makes them attractive for risk-tolerant yield investors during times of rising yields.

But, but, but… Rising rates, and therefore much higher interest payments – precisely why they’re appreciated by investors – also make it more difficult for the already junk-rated borrowers to come up with the cash to make those much higher interest payments. And so stressed build up, default rates rise, and debt restructuring follows.

Nevertheless, thanks to the ultra-loose financial conditions, and similar to the dazzling boom in junk bond issuance so far this year, leveraged-loan issuance has soared from the ashes in Q1, reaching $325 billion, according to LCD, just a hair below the free-money record of Q1 2021, and nearly five times the volume of Q1 last year.



PPI jacked 6% higher. CPI follows (sometimes with a lag) PPI. Powell has problems. If he wants to try and maintain credibility, instead of rate cuts, he'll need rate hikes.

As we already know, higher rates drive higher inflation due to the compounding nature of the debt.



Putting a trade on this is difficult (assuming that you want to short it). Buying a PUT is out of the question IV = 140%. A vertical is just a waste of time. The only play is selling the IV but that is as risky as f*ck. If you do want to play, day 3 is the place to play.






Missed this trade. One I definitely wanted.



From JC,

Look at this squeeze in GameStop $GME happening as we speak.
$GME more than doubled in price yesterday, finally closing up 75% on the day. That's a 200% rally in just a couple of weeks.
$GME is up another 50% pre-market today, as of the time of this writing...
But as you can see in this chart above, not all memes and short squeezes are created equal.
There's a reason why some of these rip and others do not.
We have a system for this.
And it works!
It's called Freshly Squeezed.
We're going to share with everyone the basics of how we identify short-squeeze setups during a live session TODAY - Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. ET.
High short interest... a heavy dose of days to cover... momentum picking up fast...
There is a process behind this. Real math.
It's not just hype and funny memes.
There's a reason why these things happen. They've been happening for over a hundred years.
And they're going to keep happening - I promise you that!
The opportunities are going to be explosive.
We'll see you later today - Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. ET for prep work so you can see exactly how we find these names!
See you in there!


Oil News:

Higher supply of diesel is eating into middle distillate cracks, with the profitability of making middle distillates halving compared to this year’s February peak levels, prompting run cuts in Europe and Asia.

- Asian diesel cracks have fallen to $15 per barrel, half of the $29 per barrel seen in February and the lowest in 11 months, whilst US diesel cracks dropped to $17 per barrel as higher production of renewable diesel and biodiesel is replacing some consumption, especially in PADD 5.

- Diesel futures in both Europe and the US have flipped to contango, with contango in the 6-month European diesel spread surging to $12 per metric tonne, indicating that it’s more profitable to store the fuel for later consumption than to use it now.

- China’s lukewarm diesel demand, adversely impacted by increasing electrification of its trucking fleet and lower construction activity, prompted Shandong teapots to run lower, with refiners in Taiwan and South Korea also implementing throughput rate cuts this month.

Market Movers

- Reacting to BHP’s $39 billion takeover bid, mining giant AngloAmerican (LON:AAL) is now considering an IPO of its diamond business De Beers, mulling a potential break-up via a demerger.

- Canada’s midstream giant Enbridge (TSE:ENB) announced that pipeline throughput on its 3.1 million b/d Mainline system have so far seen little change despite the launch of TMX, aiding it to a 10% stock share recovery over the past month.

- US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is nearing the end game of its $1.28 billion divestment of its onshore assets in Nigeria to Seplat Energy, with the country’s regulator saying the approval could come in a matter of weeks.

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

The week started on an upbeat note with strong U.S. gasoline demand and improving Chinese consumption setting the stage for another weekly gain, however, Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data nipped that optimism in the bud. PPI rose 0.5% last month, well above the market’s consensus expectation of 0.3%, indicating that inflation will remain a policy conundrum for much longer. Should April CPI data also come in higher than expected, Brent should drop to the low-80s.

Iraq Opposes New OPEC+ Output Cuts. Marred by accusations of systemic overproduction, Iraq has claimed it had made enough voluntary production cuts and would not agree to any additional OPEC+ curbs, with the ambiguous statement heating up the preparation for the OPEC+ June 1 meeting.

US Extends Oil Service Firms Venezuela Waiver. The US Treasury Department extended a waiver allowing certain transactions with Venezuela’s national oil firm PDVSA for oil service companies, however still prohibiting any drilling, processing, purchasing, transporting or shipping operations.

Hedge Funds Turn Bullish on Oil. Hedge funds and other money managers have increased their short positions in Nymex WTI futures and options by 16%, marking the fourth straight weekly decline and reducing the net length held in the benchmark contract to 117,651 contracts, the lowest since February.

Republicans Try to Stop EPA Carbon Rules. Attorney generals from 27 Republican-held US states and industry trade groups have sued the US Environmental Protection Agency, seeking to block the Biden administration’s mandate for gas and coal-fuelled power plants to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2032.

Canada Braces for Wildfire Re-Run. Canadian authorities issued an evacuation alert for Fort McMurray in Alberta, home to almost 1.5 million b/d of oil sands production, citing “extreme” wildfire danger there with PM Justin Trudeau warning of a another “catastrophic” forest fire season.

South Korea to Build British Nuclear Plants. According to the FT, South Korea’s KEPCO (KRX:015760) held negotiations with the British government to build a nuclear power station at the coastal area of Wylfa in Wales, four years after Japan’s Hitachi scrapped its initial plans to build a plant there.

LME’s Aluminium Storage Woes Continue. Total aluminium stock held in LME warehouses almost doubled in just one day last week, jumping to 903,850 metric tons after 425,575 mt were deposited in Port Klang, Malaysia, suggesting that rent share deals for Russian-made metal remain lucrative.

RioTinto Joins the Anglo Bidding Contest. The world’s second largest mining company Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) is reportedly considering a bid for AngloAmerican just as BHP saw its first offer rejected by the London-based company, joined by global commodity trader Glencore that’s also mulling a potential move.

Qatar Find a Trusted Partner in ExxonMobil. A year after QatarEnergy farmed into ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) Canadian offshore acreage, the Qatari NOC has agreed to acquire a 40% participating interest in the US major’s two exploration blocks offshore Egypt, the Cairo and Masry concessions.

OPEC’s Bullishness Knows No Boundaries. Leaving its forecasts unchanged for 2024 and 2025, OPEC reiterated its extremely bullish outlook for 2024 crude demand, expecting it to rise by 2.25 million b/d, almost double the IEA’s forecast of 1.2 million b/d and the EIA’s call of 0.92 million b/d.

Biden Signs US Ban on Russian Uranium Imports. US President Joe Biden signed a ban on imports of Russian enriched uranium into law this week, currently accounting for some 24% of all uranium used in US nuclear plants, with a 90-day grace period and the possibility to apply for waivers until 2027.

Biofuel Producers Rise Against Chinese Cooking Oil. A group of leading US biofuels producers, including Cargill, Bunge and Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) has called on the Biden administration to lift import levies on Chinese used cooking oil, arguing it is undercutting US crops used for biofuels.

Indonesia Starts New Upstream Auction. Indonesia seeks to boost exploration in its offshore waters by offering five blocks in this year’s first lease sale, part of its 10-auction licensing spree in 2024, seeking to tap into new reserves as out of its 128 hydrocarbon basins, 68 remain entirely unexplored.



Market is meh.



Could be explosive tomorrow once Powell speaks.

Which way?

My GUESS is lower.

Lower is probably the pain trade. As I said yesterday, excepting the short squeezes in meme junk, most of the short interest is out of the major stocks...these are what drive the indices. Obviously speculation is rife. Never a good sign. Money is loosey goosey, except for where it matters, in the UST market.

On the bullish side:



Is falling and looking weak atm. A weak USD is good (great) for stocks.

Now Yellen and Treasury are actively trying the drive USD down. Powell seems not to have got the email. Powell has a tendency of saying sh*t that suddenly explodes the USD higher.

We also have the CPI number. Based on the PPI number, lower is very unlikely.

There is a odd vibe in the market currently.





jog on
duc
 
From Carson Research:

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.”
Click to expand...
Some well-known bears are back in the news, with their usual dour predictions, from a recession coming soon to an outright 65% market crash. You can read more about their calls here, but we’ve been hearing these same things for years now and been pushing back the whole time. To be honest, I’m glad to see these permabears still pumping out the same old story, as I’d be much more worried if they looked at the data and come to a bullish conclusion.

We can talk all we want about the path of the economy, inflation, the election, geopolitics, or what the Fed should or shouldn’t do, but what matters at the end of the day is what markets do. Here are a few things I’ve noticed recently that continue to suggest this bull market is alive and well and a summer rally is still likely. For more on this, be sure to read Six Reasons This Bull Market is Alive and Well.

Breadth Is Strong​

If more and more stocks are making 52-week highs, that’s a good thing. It suggests the foundation of the bullish move is healthy and likely sustainable. Below we show that is happening across the board.



One of my favorite technical indicators is advance/decline (A/D) lines. These are simply a daily look at how many stocks go up versus down each day on various exchanges. When A/D lines are breaking out to new highs, it could be a clue that overall price is about to follow. The same could be said for new lows in A/D lines, which means there’s weakness under the surface.

Last week saw new highs in these A/D lines: S&P 500, NYSE, and Midcaps. Small caps are close to a new 52-week high. To keep it very simple, this isn’t something you see in a bear market and it means this early spring rally likely has legs.



Lastly on breadth, there was a buying thrust on the NYSE that tends to be very rare, but quite bullish. For three days in a row more than 74% of the stocks on the NYSE were higher on the day. It is normal to see this for a day or two, but three days is very unusual and it suggests heavy buying pressure taking place. We found this happened only eight other times since 2000. A year later the S&P 500 was higher every time and up close to 23% on average.



Stocks Don’t Peak in March​

The last time the S&P 500 hit a new high was March 28, which lead to the 5.5% mild correction into mid-April. We were on record the whole time that it likely wouldn’t turn into a 10% correction (or worse) and with the big rally the past three weeks, that is looking accurate. I looked at the past 38 corrections and bear markets since World War II and I found that only once did one start in March. That of course was March 2000 when the tech bubble burst. But the bottom line is it’s quite rare to see stocks peak in March and this time doesn’t appear to be any different.



Better Inflation Data Coming​

We’ve talked a lot about why the recent blip in inflation to start this year was probably nothing more than some pain after the large improvement in the past year and seasonal quirks (like higher auto insurance and higher financial services fees), and that we expect to see things like shelter drastically improve over the coming months. Here’s another interesting development that shows used car prices have outright tanked, even though the government’s data doesn’t show this yet.

From Thrasher Analytics:

The utilities sector is highly sensitive to interest rates, and we recently saw XLU start to lead as the market recovered after bottoming on April 16 and the 10-yr Treasury yield hit 4.66%. The yield inched slightly higher but mostly been moving lower during this period of XLU strength. At this point, utilities are one of the only sectors seeing a big move in stocks with stretched momentum, a unique development we don’t see very often.

Below is a look at the percent of each sector that is “overbought” based on a 14-day RSI rising above70. Nearly all sectors are between 0% and 14% except for one. Utilities stands out like a sore thumb at 46.7% at Friday’s close. It would be one thing if we saw a general consensus among sectors of elevated momentum in individual stocks, but when one sector stands alone, it’s at a higher risk of reversing as flows shift to less stretched corners of the market.



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Looking closer at the momentum breadth data for the utilities sector, below is the percent of XLU that is “overbought” or “oversold.” On Thursday, 60% of the sector had its RSI rise above 70, becoming “overbought.” When we breach 50%, XLU has soon begun to struggle to continue to advance and often reverses lower, as shown by the red dots are the chart below.




ETF's generally:

Today’s post isn’t long, but it’s important.

We’ve been seeing some posts floating around on social media about how the Utilities are the best-performing S&P 500 sector in 2024, and we feel like that needs to be addressed.

The Utes have done well this year, but they are NOT #1.

Communication Services is still out front, and by a fairly wide margin. Here’s the year-to-date S&P 500 sector performance derby:


So what’s causing the confusion? Are people just that ill-informed? Or is there something else going on?

The problem can be traced to the difference between following the market and following an ETF that attempts to track the market.
As a general rule, we try to always use indexes at Grindstone. We want to analyze the market in its purest form - not one that’s been diluted by fees or the decisions of individual managers - and then we can look for the best vehicle to use afterward.

Usually their isn’t much distinction between our analysis and that of those using funds to track sector or industry performance. This year, however, the popular SPDR Sector ETFs have done an especially poor job of reflecting the true market action. As a result, XLU, the Utilities ETF, has outperformed all the other sector ETFs.

Take a look at what’s happened. The Communication Services ETF (XLC) has lagged the sector index by 6%. The Information Technology ETF (XLK) has understated the sector’s performance by almost 5%. And XLY has underperformed the Consumer Discretionary sector by 3%.


How did that happen? It’s not that State Street dropped the ball. Their ETFs did exactly what they were designed to do and they’ve tracked their benchmarks admirably. The problem is that their benchmarks aren’t what most people think they are.

The S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index, meaning the largest stocks are the most important. The sector indexes are the same way - each stock’s importance within the sector is directly related to the market capitalization of the stock.

The select sector ETFs use what’s called a Modified Market Cap Weighting. That ‘modification’ keeps any single company from exceeding a 25% weight in the fund and keeps the sum of all companies with weights greater than 4.8% from exceeding 50% of the total. Here’s a summary of their process for reducing the weights of companies that violate their modified market cap thresholds:
  1. If any company has a float-adjusted market cap weight (FMC) greater than 24%, the company’s weight is capped at 23%, which allows for a 2% buffer. This buffer is meant to mitigate against any company exceeding 25% as of the quarter-end diversification requirement date.
  2. All excess weight is proportionally redistributed to all uncapped companies within the relevant index.
  3. After this redistribution, if the FMC weight of any other company breaches 23%, the process is repeated iteratively until no company breaches the 23% weight cap.
  4. The sum of the companies with weights greater than 4.8% cannot exceed 50% of the total index weight. These caps are set to allow for a buffer below the 5% limit. If this rule is breached, rank all companies in descending order by FMC weight, and reduce the weight of the smallest company whose weight is greater than 4.8% that causes the breach to 4.5%. This process continues iteratively until the rule is satisfied.
These rules are causing BIG distortions.

Let’s briefly walk through Communications. Alphabet’s market cap share of the Communication Services sector going into the quarterly rebalance stood north of 40%. But since the weight is capped at 23% in the ETF, that means the ETF only gets about half of the GOOGL weight it’s supposed to. Meta was north of 25%, too. Result? Underweight META. Put those two together and you’re at a 46% weight for the ETF, a little more than 20% below what their true market cap share is. Now we have to distribute that 20-odd percent across the remaining 17 companies in the sector, which pushes another 6 companies above a 4.8% weight.

Except GOOGL and META are already at 46%, and adding any company at more than a 4.8% will violate the 50% cap in rule 4. So each of those 6 companies is iteratively reduced to a weight 4.5%. It’s a messy process that effectively overweights each of the smallest companies in the sector and underweights the largest.

There’s also a large distortion for the Tech sector. Microsoft and Apple were the two largest stocks in the sector at quarter end, and neither were in breach of the 24% market cap share threshold. So far, so good. But then add in NVIDIA, at about a 17% weight, and you’ve got a problem. Since the 3 together represent 60%, rule 4 is broken. To correct that, “reduce the weight of the smallest company whose weight is greater than 4.8% that causes the breach to 4.5%.” So the weights of MSFT and AAPL aren’t changed, but NVDA goes from a 17% weight to a 4.5% weight.

NVIDIA is the second-best stock in the entire S&P 500 so far in 2024, yet XLK is underweight the stock by 12%. No wonder we’ve got performance distortions.

We’re not here to bash the ETFs - these modifications could have resulted in outperformance of the true market just as easily as they have underperformance. All we’re saying is that it’s important to know what you own.
That’s all for today.

Copper:





I hold PBR. So this morning when I checked, wow. Called for a rapid infusion of coffee. I added to my position. Bleh.




Sure with massive inflation the only realistic outcome, why would you buy UST paper?



Horrible. No recovery in sight for 20yrs.



There are a few more out there. TSLA is one. Avoid.



I would have been interested to see from say 1974 to today. The size of BRK-A just makes outperformance tough. But interesting to know that if you were just starting out, the way to go is just via SPY. So easy. A bit spicier QQQ.



Just keeps that permanent bid under stock prices. Price insensitive, they are buying back stock so that the massive Options grants to management do not dilute the stock.



Compounding at work. The sovereign debt bubble will blow-the-f*ck-up. 100% certain. The issue, as it was with the housing market in 2007-2008, the powers that be are actively fighting against this. They are kicking every can they can find down the road. They will likely succeed for a time. This makes the inevitable difficult to time. You'll know it when you see it.



Not a good look.

pg. 2
 
USD:

May showers and meme stocks are rolling through.

Roaring Kitty is back, leaning into his detractors with his trademark flair.

AMC and GameStop $GME are ripping. Gold mining stocks are picking up the pace. And the US dollar…

Surprisingly, it’s still holding above former support.



The 105 – 104.75 area marks the spot for the US Dollar Index $DXY:



A decisive close below that key polarity zone places the dollar back in the box, giving stock market bulls free rein.

Yet investors don’t seem to care about the greenback.

Despite DXY’s sticky former highs, risk assets continue to crank.

Check out Dr. Copper and the aussie-yen posting fresh multi-year highs:



Both represent critical risk-on-market gauges. Demand for copper measures economic health, while an aussie-yen bid accompanies a low-volatility environment.

These multi-year highs are exposing a risk-seeking behavior that’s sidelining the buck.

Let’s face it – no one is running for safety while GME is up almost 200% in two days.

On the flip side, the good times entice investors to collect the USD-associated carry. It’s evident in the buoyant USD/JPY.

Nevertheless, I still believe the yen bounces back (dollar-yen rolls).

Our bullish euro and British pound trades are working. Plus, the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars are tracking toward their respective breakout levels.

If all six trades I outlined last week are within range, the dollar is skidding lower. It’s simple mathematics.

So far, we can count two (the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD).

The list will likely grow later this week. But apparently, Dr. Copper and meme stock season aren’t waiting for confirmation.

Stay tuned.

Yellen needs a lower USD. She has plenty of heft to push it down. If she fails, then there are problems.



Copper is required to transmit all that electrical power required to fuel AI, BTC and the remaining plebs.

Peripheral gains are being had by:





CPI was meh. This is the nature of inflation, it ebbs and flows.



Unless you live in these chat rooms, difficult to get in ahead of time. It was the same in the late 1990's. AOL chatrooms pumped and dumped internet stocks. Nothing new here.



Re. Mr Musk: it's a car company. Economics of car companies will prevail over time. They are meh.

On perma-bears:




Paying attention to the macro is important. Periodically a really bad macro situation will present itself that will have bad outcomes. You NEED to be a bear. It is the TIMING of being a bear that is the crux of the problem.



If it was that easy, we'd all be multi-billionairs.

jog on
duc
 
Learning difference eft vs index is quite interesting..and indeed can make an unexpected difference...a small cost for better diversification/safety..bug do you want diversification when purchasing such focussed ETF?
 
Thanks I thought that content on the performance of sector ETFs vs their indices very valuable also. It's so important to know the holdings and makeup of each ETF we decide to trade. Much more important if we're going the hold them for a while.
 
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