Market Homework

[CanOz]

Lots of business done at our levels today...

 

[CanOz]

I was away from my desk the last two days but when i got back last night i enjoyed trying to fade the top of this Supertrend with 6872 being a key level. These types of days are actually very difficult for the intra-day trader to master. Learning to recognize the strength in these types of days are one of the most difficult aspects of volume profiling. This was a huge range extension that i intend on playing over and then taping so that i can learn to 'feel' the strength. Even a guy like FT71 says these are his worst days. Trends like this are the exception rather than the rule, so fading what is considered a 'normal' day certainly doesn't work here.

Still, there are plenty of pullbacks to buy. The participants enter out of nowhere and hit the offer with large size. This i believe is the key in recognizing when to enter on the pullbacks, patience....patience.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Expecting a huge gap up Monday, absent of any news i could see range day...hope so. Depending on the open we could see an open drive to a new value area.

Difficult to define levels in the area above the composites values as we only have so much intra-day data available. We'll use Fibb. extensions for our level estimates and then use the developing value area in conjunction with these levels.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Expecting an open somewhere around 6868. 50 points either side will present an opportunity to fade back towards that vale area. 6770 is a large value area that we can use as a target if the market advertises lower prices. We are a large area of resistance and break higher would be pretty bullish.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Nice open (6869) 1 tick above the VPOC (6868).

Then an advert higher, no interest, back towards value...

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

A nice pullback here to the composite's VPOC. Our signal is the pullback to a good level (the VPOC), with divergence on the volume balance, which we got. We entered when we saw the orders hit the offer again....

Just as we saw when we watched the replay of Friday.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

A bit late getting the levels posted, but git into a nice trade none the less.

Accepting value around yesterdays VPOC.

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

I missed getting back into this one after I moved my stop to BE and left the room. This would have been the right trade. Sometimes if the level doesn't get tagged the first time its better to wait and see what happens later on. Better divergence too, it really wasn't catching enough on the offer to carry it further as you can see by the C.Delta.

Seems to be a good level for a quiet day.

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

The DAX will most likely open around the current value area absent of any news. We'll look for fade any moves away unless we see some impulsive action.

 

[CanOz]

No levels really done today because of i was busy mopping up water from the storm. It is however notable to see the market tested higher levels, rejected and then headed straight for the large value area around 20,000.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

6990 may get tested again today. If we open near the value areas of 6970 and 6953 then we could develop an inital balance there before testing the high from the prior session. We would look to fade that back towards value. A break below 6953 could see a test of 6909, and lower to 6868. Generally we need to be aware of the trade balance data out that could push us lower into these areas. **Well there, we just open right at 6958 as i was typing this up...

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Yesterday saw value accepted slightly lower but still in the large composite area between 6970 and 6909. I still expect a test of 6990 as the bullish tone continues, and perhaps a new high at 7000. A rejection of this could see a test of 6909 again. On the bigger time frame it appears as a rollover though, so today could be a decisive day.

In any case we'll look to fade the extremes. Its been three sessions since we had a large range extension. For the most part the market has been making new normal distributions of value.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Another nice example of absorption. You can see from the cumulative delta that orders were pounding the bid, driving the delta lower. The price refused to break 6950 again. Once the sellers dried and the buyers came in the market popped nicely...

 

[CanOz]

Good to see the DAX respecting its levels

 

[CanOz]

Should be an interesting day on the Hang Seng today. Yesterday saw a failed test higher and a close below the value area. If today opens below the value area we could expect a swing higher to value again. If we open above then we can expect a test of the high again. Lots of good levels today for pullbacks etc.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Todays levels. I am expecting an open within the current value area with a possible test lower. Its been a good run to here so far, expecting a pullback. Nonetheless, we have lots of good levels to watch for pullbacks and reversals.

Cheers,

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Looking for a GAP up...test of the high at 20279, which we may fade, possibility of a new higher value area forming around the highs today, maybe 20180 or 20230 ish...

 

[CanOz]

Todays levels. Big value area on the comp, 6977 - 6912. Yesterdays VPOC at 6967, previous days at 6952. Looking for an open in value here somewhere. Also looking for a run to GAP fill around 6930 today, then a trade back into a value area a little higher...Lets see

 

[CanOz]

Pretty much did exactly as we expected. Filled the GAP with a test/rejection of a LVN and then back to form a higher DPOC.

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Value accepted lower now. Still, a big trading range, but are we going to break higher or lower? Low volumes, summer trading, and i'm thinking of a rollover....None the less expecting an open close to yesterdays close absent of any news. I can see us testing 6975 again, then maybe 6909 as well. Perhaps we break lower tonight...