Market Bottom?

[clowboy]

Yes, but a lack of sellers is what makes the market go up, a surplus and it goes down.


Still I aggree the worst is yet to come IMHO

 

[osmosis]

I still think that the DJIA is yet to have a big one day dip. When this point is reached (say 10-20% fall in one day), there will be a few more aftershocks and then then a plateu. The ASX will then follow suite. Tuesdays big decline was just a starter imo. Wait and see.

 

[overule]

But analyst said there will be a US interest cut down to 3% and i think this would calm the market.

 

[Kimosabi]

But analyst said there will be a US interest cut down to 3% and i think this would calm the market.

The Fed could cut interest rates to 0%, but it won't stop the slaughter.

US Interest rates should be going up to accelerate cleaning up the mess and to save the dollar.

The Fed dropping rates is actually the worse thing they could be doing...

 

[clowboy]

Why would they need to cut rates so dramatically?

with the Australian average home loan at 240,000 the same rate cuts would give the "average" australian an extra $70 a week to spend. Quite a tidy payrise for a week?

 

[JTLP]

I still think that the DJIA is yet to have a big one day dip. When this point is reached (say 10-20% fall in one day), there will be a few more aftershocks and then then a plateu. The ASX will then follow suite. Tuesdays big decline was just a starter imo. Wait and see.

Yikes! If it dropped by a 1000 or 2000 points in a day now I think there would be a few window jumpers

 

[mfp]

Yikes! If it dropped by a 1000 or 2000 points in a day now I think there would be a few window jumpers

Had helicopter Ben not stepped in Tue night with his emergency 0.75% rate cut, a 1000+ point drop on the DOW was a virtual certainty. IMO all he has done now is postpone an even bigger one day fall. And anyway, 1000 points would have only been around 8% for the DOW. Our market fell 7% Tue and we aren't the ones with the problem!

 

[Kauri]

what has caused this problem... people who cannot afford repayments being given the hard sell on credit, be it housing, cars, credit cards, et al... drop the rates AND keep credit availability tight so the problem is not added to, but, as in all cycles the worm eventually turns and rates via inflation created lift again... lets just hope that all of those Ninja's have paid out thier loans before they rise, or they will once again not be able to afford them... .. The stimulation package with it's tax cuts may stimulate a touch of spending, but that won't be helping the Ninja's who by definition don't have a job and therefore no tax to cut. Stimulate job creation ... not further debt creation.. or so far as bottoms go, you ain't seen nothing yet... I thunk..
Cheers
........Kauri

 

[CFD]

Pity we couldn't wise up and outlaw mortgage brokers.

 

[SophieSweet]

The following link from the New York Times gives some food for thought on where the market may go. Anyway, the gist of the article is from a company that tracks the buy/sells of corporate insiders, like directors and the sentiment of business media. The report generally shows the media are traditionally wrong and the ratio of buys to sells of the corporate insiders generally indicate how the market will go. Bottomline is that the report suggests the market looks good.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/business/27stra.html?em&ex=1201669200&en=9d92d675831a957b&ei=5087

 

[josjes]

The following link from the New York Times gives some food for thought on where the market may go. Anyway, the gist of the article is from a company that tracks the buy/sells of corporate insiders, like directors and the sentiment of business media. The report generally shows the media are traditionally wrong and the ratio of buys to sells of the corporate insiders generally indicate how the market will go. Bottomline is that the report suggests the market looks good.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/business/27stra.html?em&ex=1201669200&en=9d92d675831a957b&ei=5087

Don't bet YOUR own money on this article.
Mark Hulbert basically said the same thing on Dec19. and Nov21.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={21EF12A3-9729-4AFB-A8D3-5F137A8C34C8}
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={3193D685-5A61-4CC4-B61E-83D55693931D}

Look where the stock market is heading after that ??
Bottom line: Stand aside whilst the Bear Market train is heading towards you.

 

[numbercruncher]

I never trust these guys, I assume from the outset they have alteria motives and work backwards from there

 

[Nyden]

Everyone keeps using the word bet, that alone tells me to keep away from the markets.

At the moment, they are nothing but a gamble. Long term fundamentals, market sentiment, & many other factors are all teetering on the edge between heads, & tales; and I refuse to engage in such gambling.

Examples of fundamental unknowns;
Will the US have a recession?
Will the US recession have an impact on China, & this commodities bull?
- & If so, are all of our resources companies overvalued? Obviously the fact of a 'never ending' resources bull is priced into these companies, can they really handle a drastic price reduction of commodity prices? Will many spec mining companies suddenly become economically impractical?

& Let's face it, if our market cools down, less 'easy money' may equate to less money spent, the uncertainty in the property market may keep home buyers away - less mortgages, less profits for even our banks ...

 

[marklar]

OK... so... a few people have posted XJO targets for picking the bottom, but does anyone have some combination of signals (chart, astral, momentum, tea leaves, chicken entrails, etc.) that they would care to share?

m.

 

[cordelia]

well i looked into my crystal ball and I could see that the bottom has been reached but then I asked the pendulum and it said no......Think I am oing to throw the runes next...