(Bull) Market June 2021

[ducati916]

Part deux:

Housing:

This was part of the problem in 2006 as this facility disappeared into 2007 as banks started to realise their problems. Early days obviously, but potentially (in part) explaining the ability not to return to work. Where is the money actually going?

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

Bounce or continuation to new highs?

I'm with Mr fff on this one: it looks and feels more like a bounce. VIX would disagree and indicate a move higher into ultimately new highs. So I think tomorrow we move lower. If a bit of a panic does not eventuate, then we will likely move to potentially new highs. If however we do sell off again tomorrow, but we get a bit of a panic on, things might turn a bit more serious.

The EOD data will help in clarifying those possibilities. Of course that's pretty useless when you want to position today.

Yields continue lower on my model. Yields also having a bounce today:

DXY lower.

DXY will continue to weaken and sell off, giving commodities fresh legs.

This is the chart that has me concerned: this is the classic 'risk off' chart. Only a matter of time until equity markets either pay attention or get caught by a surprise. The Bond market is often early to leave the party, but once the hot girls leave, the party is over anyway, only the piss-heads remain.

We also have (the beginning of) confirmation from the equity market: the defensive sector is catching a bid.

I remain very cautious re. equities.


jog on
duc

 

[Thegoat]

qldfrog I have been following you since the age of 10 years

 

[qldfrog]

qldfrog I have been following you since the age of 10 years

Arrrgg that's a kick in the guts..?
Hope you learnt and still learn from my endless mistakes
My lessons so far: listen to knowledgeable people like @ducati916 , if you think too much you are right far too early and the market is slow and dumb, so you loose a lot of opportunities
Even covid
i was warning about covid and wuhan lab escape in December 2019 due to my tight links to China then, moved to cash ,bonds and bear investments for the non systemic part.did ok , some small profit, no loss but was far to early
Be optimistic or if not, stick to systems
And do not trust gov or fed banks, in 2021, most is in narrative, not knowledge or truth

 

[qldfrog]

That post got stuck yesterday
In term of US market and dxf, in an environment of currency manipulation and collapsed / fake economy, have you thought mr Ducati to Russia

Strong currency after nearly a decade of gold buying by central bank, huge reserves of gas and oil, minerals with a ready market in China, outside any western interference..

So in a world of USD collapsing, oil crisis following the west woke addiction and self suicidal western democraties, i am keen to see the Russian currency and market as a potential saviour.

But unsure what to purchase..medium long term.

There is a 3x ETF but not good for anything but short term.

I ordered a few vaneck Russia etf : RSX

Does this sounds too crazy?

 

[frugal.rock]

Oil price is not a factor atm. It can just sit where it is and everyone will be happy for a while.

It soon will be....
I'm "happy" when it sits up overnight + 2% nice bullish bar.
Plenty of room left in a oil trade, one of the surer bets at the moment imo.

 

[ducati916]

Byte of a crypto day:

In 1 hour:

The low was $28K +/-. The trading range looks to be collapsing lower. HODL, Diamond Hands, Laser Eyes, etc. are not actual strategies.


Meanwhile:

Stocks, pretty much across the board inch higher.

Stocks to Commodities:

Now of course that doesn't mean commodities can get cheaper and stocks more expensive. But thinking in probabilities, which end of the trade would you rather be on going forward? I don't mind holding cheap stuff and waiting a while for it to get more expensive.

There was an article (seems to have disappeared) on weather (too hot, no water) in the US currently. Agricultural crops are being laid waste. Now harvest time is +/- September. If this article is correct and if weather remains hot/dry, those futures will start creeping higher and higher, adding too inflationary pressures via reduced supply (in this case).

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

For @qldfrog:

Russia being an oil producer, looks to be benefitting. The issue for me is this: is it a 1 trick pony (oil) and if so, why not just trade oil? I know they historically grew lots of wheat. Still the case? Also, how closely correlated to 'equities' are they?

On my weekly chart, RSX looks set for a bit of a pullback, even on this chart.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Still lots of noise in the markets, so a number of today's charts are weeklies to stand back somewhat from the noise.

Oil news:

Coal stockpiles declined by 16 million tons in February 2021, the largest inventory decline since July 2011.

- Typically, coal stocks decline in the summer months, when coal demand surges.

- Rising natural gas prices in late 2020 and early 2021 have also increased coal demand, with coal generation up 16% in December 2020 and January 2021, from a year earlier.

Market Movers

- The Biden administration is considering a ban on polysilicon from Xinjiang, China over the use of forced labor. Solar stocks trade mostly lower on Monday, with Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) down 4.7% during midday trading.

- Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) announced new emissions targets, including net-zero targets by 2050 for Scope 1 and 2.

- Cimarex (NYSE: XEC) was upgraded to a Buy rating by Bank of America, which said it likes the stock “in spite” of the pending acquisition of Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG). BofA said the deal also may not close.

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Oil prices shot up on Monday as bullish sentiment around demand took hold, but in early trading on Tuesday, prices were slightly down on news that OPEC+ might start increasing production.

“Reports that OPEC+ is already discussing, ahead of its scheduled meeting, to increase its output from August indicates that the demand-supply gap is already becoming an issue and that the alliance is working on a plan to tap that deficit,” Louise Dickson of Rystad Energy said in a statement. “The OPEC+ chatter to raise supply is the most bearish risk for the recent oil price rally, which has been propelled on strong summer demand and an overall conservative supply environment.”

OPEC+ discusses oil increases. OPEC+ is discussing a further easing of oil output cuts from August as oil prices rise on demand recovery, but no decision had been taken yet on the exact volume to bring back to the market, sourced told Reuters. “It is highly possible to increase gradually from August,” said one of the sources.

BofA: Oil could hit $100. Bank of America is out with one of the bullish calls yet, predicting that Brent could surge to $100 per barrel next year. “There is plenty of pent-up oil demand ready to be unleashed,” said Francisco Blanch of BofA.

What about $130? From $35 per barrel to $130 per barrel—this is the range for oil prices in the next few years that we could see, according to a commodity trading group.

Exxon prepares job cuts. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) is planning on culling its workforce by as much as 10% over the next three to five years using an internal management system that ranks its employee performances against one another.

Gas drillers perform well as prices rise. Gas drillers such as Range Resources (NYSE: RRC) and Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) have been among the best performers of the energy sector with Nymex natural gas prices up more than 90% over the past year. Demand is up on hot weather while production is far below the December 2019 peak. “In the past we’ve had these demand gains, but they were all overwhelmed by production increases,” an energy analyst told the WSJ. “We don’t have that any more.”

U.S. shale finally making money. U.S. shale industry on track to generate $30 billion in free cash flow this year, which comes on the heels of a decade-long string of losses totaling $300 billion in negative cash flow.

Colorado regulators prepare orphan wells regulations. Colorado oil and gas regulators looking to avoid a rash of abandoned and unplugged oil and gas wells are proposing to increase financial guarantees by operators for each of their wells — a price tag that could add up to billions of dollars.

Iran stores oil, readying for sanctions relief. Iran could quickly export millions of barrels of oil it is holding in storage if it reaches a deal with the United States on its nuclear program. Iran has been stashing oil on tankers at sea, readying for a breakthrough, according to Reuters.

New Houston oil contract launched. Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP), Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD), and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced the establishment of a new futures contract for the physical delivery of crude oil in the Houston area.

EU considering phaseout of ICE vehicles. The European Union is considering a mandatory phaseout of sales of gasoline and diesel cars by 2035. The final text of the European Commission’s new rules are set to be published on July 14.

EIG Global Energy Partners to buy Aramco assets for $12 billion. U.S.-based EIG Global Energy Partners said on Friday a consortium it led has closed a deal to buy 49% of Saudi oil producer Aramco's (TADAWUL: 2222) pipelines business for $12.4 billion.

SEC prepares climate disclosure rules. The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing to require public companies to disclose more information about how they respond to threats linked to climate change. A proposed rule could be issued by October, according to the WSJ.

Moody’s: Gulf states need 10 years to end oil dependence. Countries in the oil-exporting Gulf will remain heavily dependent on hydrocarbon production for at least the next ten years as efforts to diversify economies have made limited progress since the 2014-2015 oil price shock, Moody's said.

India’s LNG imports drop in May, but now rebounding. India’s LNG imports declined in May due to coronavirus restrictions. However, India returned to the spot market more recently after a two-month absence, a sign that demand is on the rebound.

Caribbean refinery shuts. Limetree Bay Energy will shut its St. Croix refinery indefinitely due to financial problems, following the forced closure of the 210,000-bpd facility by the EPA over environmental concerns.

Senate energy committee to hold hearing on bill. A Senate committee that’s led by key swing vote Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has released a 400-page energy infrastructure proposal that it will weigh at a hearing scheduled for Thursday.

Oil traders beefing up renewable fuels trading teams. Oil traders and investment firms, including Citadel, Gunvor, and Trafigura (TRAFGF.UL) are bolstering U.S. teams that specialize in trading renewable fuels as demand soars, according to Reuters.

Reddit-fueled stock rally for oil driller. Tiny oil company Torchlight Energy Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: TRCH) saw its shares more than double in a week after it became the latest stock touted on Reddit as a possible short squeeze.

Some random stuff:

The retail guy, back in a big way.

The 'narrative' is an important part of this retail investment engagement. I have no idea whether Buffett like considerations are given to the 'numbers', but I doubt it. When I encounter this 'age group' they can barely add 2 + 2. I digress.

A Hedge Fund (probably just a small one) blew itself up over GME.

One for the 'narrative' buyers.

Commodities in pullback mode. Buying opportunity or end of the story?

The biggest 'narrative' of them all"

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

One of the popular 'narrative' strategies is buying OTM CALLS. Noisy on the daily:

On the weekly:

A clear bias from 2020 can be seen. Option volumes have exploded making the Options market far more important in moving stocks. Gamma squeeze has been at the forefront of this OTM strategy and to be fair, due to an all in mentality, has succeeded far more than expected. A number of Long/Short strategies have just collapsed in the last year or so.


On a weekly basis, we are still in 'risk on' mode. The recent noise in the market could well dissipate.

We'll also find out how commodities play out. Dead and buried or just getting underway?

VIX looking VERY dangerous here.

to be continued....

 

[ducati916]

Part deux:


NYMO:

Looking bullish:

Sectors:

As I post, we are here, noisy.

So lots of noise and chop. Longer term the (stock) market looks bullish, as does the commodity market. The two are not incompatible. Both can rise together, particularly if rates stay low, which we pretty much can take to the bank. Ultimately, I think commodities will start to outpace stock indices. If inflation does catch fire into next year, stocks can rise, but will come under increasing pressure. Obviously some sectors will be far stronger. Historically you could identify what traditionally worked. Will it work today with a very different market mindset?

With the second half of the year approaching and historically a very nervous part of the year, I prefer to play some defence. If the Reddit crowd are currently 'in charge', then the game they are playing carries very high risk. Anecdotally, you see evidence of many being carried out on their shields. True, some hit the jack-pot, but gradually attrition will have its say. The numbers to replace the dead eventually grind lower and the ability to keep throwing additional capital into narratives will fail. Until it does however, fast rotations will continue to prevail, hot one day, stone cold the next. The very definition of noise. Overall however, indices rise as one sectors loss is another sectors gain. Two steps forward, one step back.

I think (obvious now in hindsight) that the lockdowns in the US provided the time to participate all day long in the various forums about stocks/etc. and move as a crowd into various names, which then moved the stock. With record numbers 'giving up work', this looks set to continue for some time. Why would you want to go back and work at McDonald's for pennies when you can play the market all day for dollars? The Reddit crowd have become their own giant Prop. Shop. Pure Momo.

The thing is it is not sustainable in the long run. You cannibalise your own. The fast eat the slow. Gradually, you run out of the slow. What is left are the traditional players, not following the narrative, uninterested in whatever and the initial push into 'X' is not followed, with nothing much happening, trapping the fast with no follow through, unless they can cause a short squeeze. ATM they can. The slow even get a bite to eat and survive a bit longer. That game has a lifespan.

So as I said earlier, we are fast approaching the second half of the year which traditionally has been quite dangerous for stocks. It remains to be seen if there is enough bullish firepower to blast through to new highs and beyond in this period.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Good day for markets, pretty much everything across the board is higher.

Some seasonality data for coffee:

This is an interesting metric:

Which rather confirms the commentary that has dominated most of 2020/2021 and some of the strategies employed via Options etc. I suppose the issue is where that debt came from and its stability. Margin debt is highly unstable. Equity withdrawals fairly stable (assuming that you continue to pay the mortgage) but we know or can at least infer this is not the source as these generations are largely renting. Bank loans? Unlikely, bank data has lending near all time lows and loans for market speculation...hardly. Possibly from the DeFi platforms.

Now I came across this:

An interesting use of blockchain. Potentially solves 1 (the primary) argument of the BTC crowd re. ease of transport for gold & silver bullion.

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

Speaks for itself:

Today has been a pretty complacent sort of day. Pretty much everything rising nicely. The VIX is now signalling some instability and I would expect tomorrow to be a pullback, possibly to close the gap. Nothing particular to worry about unless that instability continues, which is possible, though less probable at this stage.

There is an argument that this is 'bullish', stocks climbing a wall of worry.

However a run to Bonds is never a good thing.

This has been a recurring risk highlighted across blogoland. It is a real risk that ALWAYS bites. The thing is, it takes time, sometimes so much time that it sends everyone to sleep and they just ignore it.

Typically what happens is that the market continues to make a new high. Not much of one, not a high volume thrust higher with everything off and running, just a meh new high. Underneath, a bit of a collapse is occurring.

With the mega-caps recovering, it is actually very easy for the index to make a new high with everything else treading water or falling. That seems to be the situation currently. The market will probably require a catalyst of some nature to trigger a fall. Whether we get one or the breadth starts to improve, nobody knows.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Roundup all about the breadth!

From NASDAQ to S&P500:

DXY:

Aussie:

With yields dead, Financials are not going to catch a bid atm.

ARKK on the comeback trail:

With Indices at ATH or very close, the Skew suggests lots of hedging going on:

And Vol. low:

So we have the internals signalling issues. We have Skew signalling issues. We have VIX at ATL. Markets at ATH. Weekend fast approaching. I simply wouldn't want to be naked directional into the w/e, long or short. I'm not a great volume chap, but the volume data (falling) with a rising market smells of market makers preparing to get short.

Re. climbing the wall of worry (the earlier argument posted with the Fear Index): there hasn't been any bad news/data. That is the true argument for climbing a wall of worry. When stocks rise into bad news, more bad news and even worse news, that's when you know you are safe. When stocks creep and inch higher on endless 'good' news, that's when you need to worry.

Bad news, of almost any description, will tank the market 5%. A more reasoned consideration of that bad news might make that a BTD type of decline or worse, tank it another 5%. If we had a 10% decline, with the amount of leverage in the system, does that create a further decline? Not sure. Not interested in finding out with my capital either.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Despite the terrible internals, the market is sitting at ATH.

Sectors: daily/week

Up across the board. Energy however at some point becomes a negative for the rest of the market. Green energy data:

Oil news:

Friday, June 25th, 2021

Oil appears set to close out another week of gains, although trading became choppy this week as OPEC+ readies production increases.

Biden supports Line 3. The Biden administration supported the contentious Line 3 pipeline in Minnesota in a court filling.

Amazon buys up renewable energy. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) said it would purchase 1.5 GW of renewables from 14 different solar and wind projects. Amazon is the largest corporate purchaser of renewables worldwide.

U.S. LNG grows costlier. Even as U.S. LNG exports have expanded, supplying liquefied natural gas to the growing Asian market has become more expensive for US producers this year, a Rystad Energy report reveals. Rystad Energy estimates that the short-run marginal cost (SRMC) of US LNG exports to the Asian market has risen to about $5.60 per MMBtu as of June 2021, up 65% from $3.4 per MMBtu in mid-2020 and 30% higher than last year’s average of $4.30 per MMBtu.

Venezuela’s Descent Into Anarchy Is Fueling Maduro’s Desperation. After more than 15 years of U.S. sanctions which caused Venezuela’s one mighty petroleum industry to collapse, the crisis-driven Latin American state now appears on the verge of failure.

Chevron won’t cut oil and gas production. Unlike European supermajors, U.S. Chevron doesn’t have any plans to reduce its oil and gas business to invest in solar or wind power, chief financial officer Pierre Breber said at a Reuters conference on Thursday.

BP to stick with oil and gas for decades. BP (NYSE: BP) will continue producing oil and gas for decades to come and will benefit from rising oil prices even as it reduces output as part of its shift to low-carbon energy, Chief Executive Bernard Looney told Reuters on Tuesday.

Japan restarts nuclear reactor. Japan restarted the first nuclear reactor in more than three years, restarting a unit that has been offline for a decade. Only 10 of Japan’s 33 operable nuclear units have resumed operations under the regulatory regime created in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Court shoots down FERC permit for pipeline. A rare rebuke of FERC occurred in federal court this week. The court nixed a permit for a gas pipeline, saying that that the pipeline company did not show that its project was needed, and FERC should have scrutinized it more. The decision could have broader implications for pipeline permitting.

Uncertainty looms for Canada’s oil sands. Just one of Canada’s five biggest oil companies, Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) has a plan to cut emissions. Reuters looks at the tough road ahead for Canada’s oil sands.

Schlumberger sets net-zero goal. Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) set a net-zero goal by 2050 for Scope 1 and 2 emissions, and a goal to cut Scope 3 emissions by 30%.

Indian utility goes big on renewables. India’s largest power generator, NTPC Ltd., doubled its long-term commitment to renewables, promising to build 60 GW by 2032, up from a 32 GW goal it announced last year.

Judge closes case against Dakota Access, for now. A U.S. district court closed a long-running case against the Dakota Access oil pipeline on Tuesday, but allowed for Native American tribes and other opponents of the line to file additional actions against it, according to Reuters.

Honda goes all-in on electric. Honda Motor Co. has become the first of Japan’s automakers to state publicly it will phase out sales of gasoline-powered cars completely, setting 2040 as the goal

400% increase in fracking crews. Even a more than 400% jump in the number of fracking crews working the U.S. shale patch isn’t enough to send oil output soaring, according to Bloomberg.

Gas infrastructure in Europe leaking methane. The potent greenhouse gas methane is spewing out of natural gas infrastructure across the European Union because of leaks and venting, video footage made available to Reuters shows.

Army Corps to review Line 5. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Wednesday it would conduct an extensive review of Enbridge Energy's plan to build an oil pipeline tunnel beneath a Great Lakes channel in Michigan, which could significantly delay the project.

Gas inventories down, global gas prices rising. A rebound in demand for gas and LNG is pushing up prices, just as heat waves hit parts of North America and Europe. Now there is a danger of not enough supply to go around. Prices are up sharply in Europe, resulting in more coal burned.

EU to tighten carbon market. The EU is set to remove some allowances in its carbon market in an effort to slash emissions. The decision is still in flux and will be part of a suite of new policies to be revealed in mid-July, but the move could raise the cost of carbon, pushing out coal and imposing higher costs on gas.

Oil companies see shortfall by 2023. A new Dallas Fed survey finds that three out of four oil and gas industry executives see a global supply shortfall by 2023.

Refiners win at Supreme Court. Oil refiners won a major court case at the Supreme Court regarding federal biofuels blending requirements. The court said that the EPA has broad authority to issue waivers to refiners.

Political news that seemingly (currently) is having no impact:

Crypto:

Commodities:

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

BTC:

Looking like its under pressure.

If support does break, then $20K is the next stop and it will fall very quickly to that level, TSLA and MSTR will have major issues. Both of them are now trading with BTC. The tail is wagging the dog.

You can add RIOT to this list, but as 'blockchain', its business in some form is BTC.

TSLA is a major player in the S&P500 by market cap. If BTC collapses down to the $20K mark and TSLA follows, that will have a negative impact. Combine that with the rotten (current) internals and the fact that BTC trades 24/7 (ie. through the w/e) giving stocks no chance to adapt and you have a bit of a market risk.

Just watching prices trade currently, the bulls are hanging on and putting in a furious goal line defence. Whether it holds or not I have no idea. If it hits $31K I think the bulls are in trouble, short term at least.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Despite the terrible internals, the market is sitting at ATH.

Sectors: daily/week

View attachment 126647View attachment 126648

Up across the board. Energy however at some point becomes a negative for the rest of the market. Green energy data:

View attachment 126650

Oil news:

Friday, June 25th, 2021

Oil appears set to close out another week of gains, although trading became choppy this week as OPEC+ readies production increases.

Biden supports Line 3. The Biden administration supported the contentious Line 3 pipeline in Minnesota in a court filling.

Amazon buys up renewable energy. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) said it would purchase 1.5 GW of renewables from 14 different solar and wind projects. Amazon is the largest corporate purchaser of renewables worldwide.

U.S. LNG grows costlier. Even as U.S. LNG exports have expanded, supplying liquefied natural gas to the growing Asian market has become more expensive for US producers this year, a Rystad Energy report reveals. Rystad Energy estimates that the short-run marginal cost (SRMC) of US LNG exports to the Asian market has risen to about $5.60 per MMBtu as of June 2021, up 65% from $3.4 per MMBtu in mid-2020 and 30% higher than last year’s average of $4.30 per MMBtu.

Venezuela’s Descent Into Anarchy Is Fueling Maduro’s Desperation. After more than 15 years of U.S. sanctions which caused Venezuela’s one mighty petroleum industry to collapse, the crisis-driven Latin American state now appears on the verge of failure.

Chevron won’t cut oil and gas production. Unlike European supermajors, U.S. Chevron doesn’t have any plans to reduce its oil and gas business to invest in solar or wind power, chief financial officer Pierre Breber said at a Reuters conference on Thursday.

BP to stick with oil and gas for decades. BP (NYSE: BP) will continue producing oil and gas for decades to come and will benefit from rising oil prices even as it reduces output as part of its shift to low-carbon energy, Chief Executive Bernard Looney told Reuters on Tuesday.

Japan restarts nuclear reactor. Japan restarted the first nuclear reactor in more than three years, restarting a unit that has been offline for a decade. Only 10 of Japan’s 33 operable nuclear units have resumed operations under the regulatory regime created in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Court shoots down FERC permit for pipeline. A rare rebuke of FERC occurred in federal court this week. The court nixed a permit for a gas pipeline, saying that that the pipeline company did not show that its project was needed, and FERC should have scrutinized it more. The decision could have broader implications for pipeline permitting.

Uncertainty looms for Canada’s oil sands. Just one of Canada’s five biggest oil companies, Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) has a plan to cut emissions. Reuters looks at the tough road ahead for Canada’s oil sands.

Schlumberger sets net-zero goal. Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) set a net-zero goal by 2050 for Scope 1 and 2 emissions, and a goal to cut Scope 3 emissions by 30%.

Indian utility goes big on renewables. India’s largest power generator, NTPC Ltd., doubled its long-term commitment to renewables, promising to build 60 GW by 2032, up from a 32 GW goal it announced last year.

Judge closes case against Dakota Access, for now. A U.S. district court closed a long-running case against the Dakota Access oil pipeline on Tuesday, but allowed for Native American tribes and other opponents of the line to file additional actions against it, according to Reuters.

Honda goes all-in on electric. Honda Motor Co. has become the first of Japan’s automakers to state publicly it will phase out sales of gasoline-powered cars completely, setting 2040 as the goal

400% increase in fracking crews. Even a more than 400% jump in the number of fracking crews working the U.S. shale patch isn’t enough to send oil output soaring, according to Bloomberg.

Gas infrastructure in Europe leaking methane. The potent greenhouse gas methane is spewing out of natural gas infrastructure across the European Union because of leaks and venting, video footage made available to Reuters shows.

Army Corps to review Line 5. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Wednesday it would conduct an extensive review of Enbridge Energy's plan to build an oil pipeline tunnel beneath a Great Lakes channel in Michigan, which could significantly delay the project.

Gas inventories down, global gas prices rising. A rebound in demand for gas and LNG is pushing up prices, just as heat waves hit parts of North America and Europe. Now there is a danger of not enough supply to go around. Prices are up sharply in Europe, resulting in more coal burned.

EU to tighten carbon market. The EU is set to remove some allowances in its carbon market in an effort to slash emissions. The decision is still in flux and will be part of a suite of new policies to be revealed in mid-July, but the move could raise the cost of carbon, pushing out coal and imposing higher costs on gas.

Oil companies see shortfall by 2023. A new Dallas Fed survey finds that three out of four oil and gas industry executives see a global supply shortfall by 2023.

Refiners win at Supreme Court. Oil refiners won a major court case at the Supreme Court regarding federal biofuels blending requirements. The court said that the EPA has broad authority to issue waivers to refiners.

Political news that seemingly (currently) is having no impact:

View attachment 126643View attachment 126644

Crypto:

View attachment 126645

Commodities:

View attachment 126646


View attachment 126649


Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

View attachment 126642


BTC:

View attachment 126651

Looking like its under pressure.

If support does break, then $20K is the next stop and it will fall very quickly to that level, TSLA and MSTR will have major issues. Both of them are now trading with BTC. The tail is wagging the dog.

View attachment 126652View attachment 126653

You can add RIOT to this list, but as 'blockchain', its business in some form is BTC.

TSLA is a major player in the S&P500 by market cap. If BTC collapses down to the $20K mark and TSLA follows, that will have a negative impact. Combine that with the rotten (current) internals and the fact that BTC trades 24/7 (ie. through the w/e) giving stocks no chance to adapt and you have a bit of a market risk.

Just watching prices trade currently, the bulls are hanging on and putting in a furious goal line defence. Whether it holds or not I have no idea. If it hits $31K I think the bulls are in trouble, short term at least.


jog on
duc

Doesn't the BTC chart look like a wide head and shoulders pattern to you? We should ask TA gurus.
Does not seem too good ....

The only positive certainty i see medium/long term is POO and i think Chevron position is admirable..will probably lead to backlash but tempted to buy in stages.
Thanks for another interesting week of pure knowledge.
On a quiz level:
I was surprised at the low figures in US renewables of solar AND hydro. @Smurf1976 will have noticed.
Usually you have one or the either(climate based), but here none so the US has definitively some potential left.
But they still need oil for a (long) while. How would you be long oil ,medium term Mr @ducati916 knowing that the producers themselves could be bashed by regulations and narratives/shareholders lobbying but that the black gold itself will go higher and higher.
Quite a unique situation.
Have all a great weekend

 

[ducati916]

Doesn't the BTC chart look like a wide head and shoulders pattern to you? We should ask TA gurus.
Does not seem too good ....

The only positive certainty i see medium/long term is POO and i think Chevron position is admirable..will probably lead to backlash but tempted to buy in stages.
Thanks for another interesting week of pure knowledge.
On a quiz level:
I was surprised at the low figures in US renewables of solar AND hydro. @Smurf1976 will have noticed.
Usually you have one or the either(climate based), but here none so the US has definitively some potential left.
But they still need oil for a (long) while. How would you be long oil ,medium term Mr @ducati916 knowing that the producers themselves could be bashed by regulations and narratives/shareholders lobbying but that the black gold itself will go higher and higher.
Quite a unique situation.
Have all a great weekend

So let's take a look at various markets from a different perspective.

In no particular order:

SPY a long way above its 200.

QQQ

BTC (now that was a bubble)

GLD

SLV

Commodities broadly:

DXY

And Oil

Where would you feel 'safe'?

Combine DXY and USO as an analysis with current monetary and fiscal policy...where would you feel comfortable? Add to that analysis gold/silver and commodities broadly any change to your thinking?

Stocks make me nervous (although I think the blow-off top of the bubble is still to come) and BTC made/makes me nauseous.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

So let's take a look at various markets from a different perspective.

In no particular order:

SPY a long way above its 200.

View attachment 126658

QQQ

View attachment 126659


BTC (now that was a bubble)


View attachment 126660

GLD

View attachment 126661

SLV

View attachment 126662

Commodities broadly:

View attachment 126663

DXY

View attachment 126664

And Oil

View attachment 126665

Where would you feel 'safe'?

Combine DXY and USO as an analysis with current monetary and fiscal policy...where would you feel comfortable? Add to that analysis gold/silver and commodities broadly any change to your thinking?

Stocks make me nervous (although I think the blow-off top of the bubble is still to come) and BTC made/makes me nauseous.


jog on
duc

I get your point Mr Duc, but i have a huge exposition to PM already, and with the absolute destruction of fossil energy exploration, infrastructure in the west,i can see a pending crisis so be it in gold, usd, aud, or Yuan, i expect petrol to shot up the sky with the watermelons cheering.
Nevertheless it is a good reminder to refresh my overall assets exposure page summary and check various exposures in term of PM (gold/Silver), cash split by aud/usd/euro, real estate assets and shares (systems vs investment)
My current feeling is that i am actually quite exposed PM wise but nothing beat raw numbers.
Thanks for your feedback

 

[ducati916]

Sunday morning coffee. As usual, I have many more charts than space allows in a single post.

Bubble data, Ray Dalio and Bridgewater:

Looking at consumers debt:

US Debt broad:

Older data:

Cost of debt:

Three major risks immediately stand out:

(i) Interest rates CANNOT RISE; and
(ii) US must print to service interest costs even at these low rates as tax receipts do not cover; and
(iii) DXY will continue to devalue, with an endgame of a hyperinflation of DXY.

Now that is an EXTREME case. The Weimar hyperinflation of 1923 was eventually halted because there was an alternative real money that could be substituted: a gold backed DXY. In 2009 Zimbabwe halted their inflation by substituting DXY. Venezuela is currently in an hyperinflation, a work in progress.

If the US DXY went into a hyperinflation, what exists as a stable money to replace it? Another fiat?

With the US currently experimenting with UBI and MMT, people refusing to return to work because they receive more in a welfare payment than they earn going to work....how sustainable is this?

Creation of wealth (real):

Risks:

Real productivity needs to at least match if not exceed monetary inflation to keep DXY from blowing-up.


to be continued....

 

[ducati916]

Part deux:

For daytrading US stocks, stocks that moved on earnings releases:

Current state of the market:

Keeping an eye on new and expanding lows:

So the data suggests that all declines remain BTD. To date, it has worked well. Each time however, the risk just grows that little bit bigger. Now certainly the FED talking about talking about raising interest rates is just so much BS. With debt where it is and growing the only move is lower, not higher. However bear markets can and have existed in low rate environments, especially where there is nowhere to go (rates wise). The FED would essentially have to print money to directly buy stocks.

What would happen?

BTC continues to trade through the w/e. Looking ugly for the HODLs.

At what point does the TETHER issue blow-up? $20K? If $30K fails, next stop (fast) will be $20K and possibly the TETHER ponzi scheme busts wide open.

So for the moment, the Bull continues. If it is a bubble, then at least another leg higher. If it is a bubble, that leg will come pretty fast, much as did the BTC acceleration into its recent high and the 1999 expansion. Hopefully it rolls over slowly before accelerating to the downside, giving some a chance to exit with a high % of profits. Those that BTD, they get killed.

Technicals help, fundamentals are worthless and sentiment is King. Sentiment is a slippery metric. It is best measured by liquidity. Liquidity is a really hard metric to see and measure: one second its there, next second, poof, its gone.

Possibly now that we are at ATH, we see that acceleration higher, breaking out of the doldrums of the last month or so.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

The frog checked figures and his PM exposure: miners, paper and physical PM is 7% of total assets (inc PPOR), with a 1/3 or so physical
He also noticed that BTC resisted pretty well this weekend and the right shoulder does not seem such a shoulder anymore ..probably due to the batrachian offloading nearly all what he had left in BTC at the lowest of the weekend or around

 

[Smurf1976]

The top 1000 companies are only 4% of market cap so even collectively they're pretty much irrelevant?

Am I reading this wrong?

I'd have guessed that they'd be far, far higher than that as a %. I've misunderstood something here???

 

[qldfrog]

The top 1000 companies are only 4% of market cap so even collectively they're pretty much irrelevant?

Am I reading this wrong?

I'd have guessed that they'd be far, far higher than that as a %. I've misunderstood something here???

True label a bit confusing, i thought the "biggest of " .as pc of the market.
Currently for sp500,apple at around 5% of total market cap of sp500.
https://www.investopedia.com/top-10-s-and-p-500-stocks-by-index-weight-4843111
If my understanding is right, then with both apple,microsoft,amazon and goógle on similar numbers,i would say the curve is a bit misleading as only antitrust laws are preventing the fangs to be even more agglomerated..and so higher.so not sure the historical comparison is really right
A disclaimer even that reading does not really fit. Aka 5% not right on scale graph..but not sure of actual date of graph in yoyo market.so probably wrong too

 

[ducati916]

The top 1000 companies are only 4% of market cap so even collectively they're pretty much irrelevant?

Am I reading this wrong?

I'd have guessed that they'd be far, far higher than that as a %. I've misunderstood something here???

I think the way it is read is: of the top 1000 companies, only 4% of their combined market cap could be considered as a bubble. Whereas in 2000, many, many small companies, most without earnings of any description had impressive market caps.

jog on
duc