March 2025 DDD

divs4ever · 2025-03-09T17:10:56+1100

well two words might explain the current stock market ( except in Australia *)

irrational exuberance or alternatively T.I.N.A. ( there is no alternative )

bonds are facing possible official rate cuts ( i think the Fed will bluff not cut , but i am the minority ) and reduced buying from foreign investors

private equity/credit has a reputation of being illiquid , when YOU need the cash immediately

and there is always your bank which MIGHT open Monday

those who DON'T love stocks ( but have money to park ) should start digging a hole in the garage for your new gold/silver safe , because regulations could grab your cache at any time they deem fit ( and can find it )

* Australia may be facing a 'healthy retrace' ( or worse )

i am think a MAJOR DISTRACTION very soon , but i have been wrong before

ducati916 · 2025-03-10T05:33:45+1100

Last week and next week:

Look at the volume in the Financials:

Last Week

And for next week:

jog on
duc

ducati916 · 2025-03-10T09:04:34+1100

From Bespoke:

It's been a nasty period for the US stock market since late February. As the chart below shows, the S&P went from overbought to extreme oversold in just eight trading days recently.

While the major indices aren't that far off their all-time highs, the average stock is in a pretty big drawdown. In the Russell 3,000 that encompasses large-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps, the average stock was 30.8% below its 52-week high as of yesterday. Health Care, Energy, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary stocks are all down an average of 33% or more from their highs.

Just like things can't stay overbought forever, they don't stay oversold forever, either. This weekend we're scouring our Chart Scanner and Trend Analyzertools to look for opportunities that may have been hit excessively hard recently. In this week's Bespoke Report newsletter available to All Access subscribers (join now for just $1), we provided a list of the most oversold stocks in the S&P 500 right now. Subscribers find these lists helpful when looking for new stock ideas.

From JC;

There's never a dull moment in the market. It's always something.

The mixed messages are a feature, not a bug.

That's just how it's always been. So it's our job to weigh all the evidence and make the best decisions we can make, knowing full well that we have incomplete information.

Today I want to talk about 2 theories that may or may not be playing out, but it's something I'm thinking about.

First, is this thing about investor sentiment. How is it possible that individual investors in America are the most bearish they've been since the bottom of the last bear market back in 2022?

I think it's because of what they own.

They're not in China, which is making new 3-year highs.

They're not in Germany, or Europe, which are hitting new all-time highs.

They're in mega-cap US growth stocks. And when you do the math, these "Mag7" stocks have been responsible for 100% of the correction in the Nasdaq.

These investors could have owned almost anything else, and been outperforming these indexes, and likely not be so pessimistic.

I think the historic bearish sentiment is driven by individual excessively overweight a half dozen stocks.

This is probably a big part of it, because I can't imagine what else would drive them to be so sad and upset about the current market environment.

We'll see how this theory plays out, and if sentiment improves if/when these stocks start to bounce.

Here's another theory.

Why is the U.S. so dramatically underperforming other parts of the world? Why did develop markets outside the U.S. just have their best week in stock market history, relative to the S&P500?

The U.S. Dollar having its worst week in years is probably helping to drive this rotation:

I think this U.S. Dollar selloff has been SO dramatic, that it's accelerated this rotation into international stocks to the point where U.S. stocks, particularly the Large-cap Growth areas, are being used as a source of funds for this rotation.

It's not so much that the stock market wants a higher dollar or lower dollar, higher rates or lower rates. It really comes down to the rate of acceleration. In other words, how fast are these assets moving?

When Bonds and Forex markets are moving violently, that spills into equity markets.

Think about it. The bond market is $130 Trillion. The Forex Markets are valued in the Quadrillions. I don't even know how many zeroes and commas are in a Quadrillion. That's how big these markets are.

The U.S. stock market is a tiny little $55 Trillion, a fraction of the others.

So expect stocks to be bullied by those bigger markets. Not just now, but always. This is especially the case when they're moving faster than normal.

And that's exactly what I believe has been happening. To a certain extent, the Dollar getting destroyed, has cause this rotation to happen much faster, and so some of these big U.S. stocks are being used as a source of funds.

That's what I've been thinking about anyway.

Thinking is underrated.

If you have a job that involves thinking, then you should probably spend, at least part of, your day thinking.

And so, as someone who needs to make important decisions every day, I try to spend a lot of time walking, running, and simultaneously thinking.

This is what I'm thinking about.

I don't know what the market is going to do next. It can rip higher to Dow 50,000, S&P 7000 and Nasdaq Composite to 25,000.

That can definitely happen.

Some of this selling in the U.S. can also expand, and the new lows lists start to get longer.

We can enter into a bear market, and maybe even that recession they've been promising us all these years.

Who knows?

I laid out my base case this week and what I think is happening moving forward. You can check that out here and what we're doing about it.

And we like to joke around and have fun with it on the blog, on our Morning show, and on Social Media.

But on a serious note - it's so important to understand that we don't actually know what the market is going to do next.

The good news, however, is that no one else does either. Not Warren Buffett, not David Tepper, not Jose Canseco. And certainly not me.

But despite all of that, our efforts are obviously working.

We designed Breakout Multiplier to take all of the research we provide at Allstarcharts, and put on trades with a very specific intent of multiplying the returns on these opportunities.

More than half the trades we put on over the past 6 months have at least doubled in value.

I've been doing this for over 2 decades. I've met with more traders and investors over the years than almost anyone else on the planet.

I can assure you, from the bottom of my heart, I have never seen a system like Breakout Multiplier be this good, this consistent, and with a process that is this repeatable.

On Friday alone, we had 2 trades double.

jog on
duc

March 2025 DDD

divs4ever

ducati916

ducati916

Attachments

Similar threads

March 2025 DDD

divs4ever

ducati916

ducati916

Attachments

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency