MAH - Macmahon Holdings

[lucifuge]

I have to share a lot of sentiment over this stock. IMHO this is a quality stock that was over-slaughtered in the recent crash. If you consider the following points:

1. Prior to the crash, Wise-Owl were interviewed on TV and their head analyst said he found LEI an over-priced stock and actually preferred MAH for value.

2. The ASX industrials sector has been one of worst, if not THE worst hit due to the crash.

3. the consolidation of share prices in MAH plus the support levels witnessed over recent lows.

Simply put, I personally believe MAH to be one the best bargains out there.

 

[LRG]

Finally MAH seem to be heading north with some vigour - have broken through 70 cents and volume is up.

Apprarently there is a bit more work in the pipeline for these infrastructure builders such as leighton, macmahon, abigroup, thiess etc - compared to 6 months ago. They tanked from $2 to 30 cents so 70 cents+ is a good recovery so far.

i bought at $1.60 and averaged down at 33 cents to just under 90 cents.

I hope they break throught $1 within the next 6 month then I'm out with my cash back.

IMO these types of stock are far too risky / cyclical - i did not realise when i first invested in them.

cheers

 

[Miner]

Finally MAH seem to be heading north with some vigour - have broken through 70 cents and volume is up.

Apprarently there is a bit more work in the pipeline for these infrastructure builders such as leighton, macmahon, abigroup, thiess etc - compared to 6 months ago. They tanked from $2 to 30 cents so 70 cents+ is a good recovery so far.

i bought at $1.60 and averaged down at 33 cents to just under 90 cents.

I hope they break throught $1 within the next 6 month then I'm out with my cash back.

IMO these types of stock are far too risky / cyclical - i did not realise when i first invested in them.

cheers

Dear LRG

I have seen Macmahon very closely.

Its CEO was the CEO for Henry Walker Eltin group. A smart guy
You were right on the share price plummetting from $2 to 30 cents. It was like any other share Rio also came down to $30 about from $157.

MAH was trading at 17 cents few months before it went to $2.

However its order book is excellent. Even on rainy season it won few significant long term contracts. Only few months back LEI wanted to take over MAH. Now LEI is sitting on a significant holding with MAH.

Current market is reviving and if you see trend of other construction based companies IMO MAH will be turning the corner.

I bought it at some what higher price and then averaged it. Recently sold most of my holding and have only a small parcel . Personally I belive MAH has the merit but I am learning not to mix personal emotion with share

 

[Putty7]

Renewal of Memorandum of Understanding
Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX:MAH) announced today that it has extended its Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Leighton Holdings, with both companies agreeing to continue the Partnering Relationship signed in November 2007.
One of the key objectives of the renewed MOU is to give Macmahon the opportunity to expand its areas of business in Australia and overseas, without comprising the Company’s independence.
Macmahon Chief Executive Officer, Nick Bowen, said that the agreement allows Macmahon to continue to increase its ability to win additional large infrastructure projects in the domestic and international markets.
“By joint venturing on construction projects with companies owned by Leighton Holdings, we will add to our skill set and further develop our expertise, particularly in relation to large scale and technically complex projects.
“The renewal of this agreement is a positive step and shows that both Leighton and Macmahon are benefiting from the MOU. This continuation displays the commitment to work together on an ongoing basis to achieve excellent outcomes and add value to both companies.
“Furthermore, a bigger, stronger and expanding Macmahon is not only beneficial for our shareholders but is also a positive for Leighton’s shareholders, who own 19 per cent of Macmahon,” Mr Bowen said.
The Standstill Agreement, which required Leighton to obtain Macmahon's written consent before acquiring a shareholding beyond 19.9 per cent of the issued capital of Macmahon and formed part of the previous MOU signed in 2007, has not been extended.

I don't hold either Leightons (way over priced at the moment IMHO) or Macmahons, I have spent time working for Leightons as a contractor in WA and they do get a lot more right than most of their competition with regards to the way they conduct their various jobs. I am wondering weather it would be wise to pick up some MAH shares given that in the past Leightons has shown an interest in taking them over, I was working for them last time they had a crack at Macmahons, think they lifted from around 12% to the current 19.9%.

Just wondering if the current climate, with work contract volume seeming to be on the improve, is a good time for them to acquire more MAH or if they are getting what they want out of the deal already without needing an increase. Anyones thoughts would be appreciated as mine tend to be a bit biased having worked in the industry.

 

[lucifuge]

I totally agree with your thinking. The takeover likelihood is very high IMHO. I onl read today in the SMH of Australia's expected growth in the economy into 2011/12 and also of Leighton's potential to revitalise the old Macmahon takeover. Perfect storm!?

I don't hold either Leightons (way over priced at the moment IMHO) or Macmahons, I have spent time working for Leightons as a contractor in WA and they do get a lot more right than most of their competition with regards to the way they conduct their various jobs. I am wondering weather it would be wise to pick up some MAH shares given that in the past Leightons has shown an interest in taking them over, I was working for them last time they had a crack at Macmahons, think they lifted from around 12% to the current 19.9%.

Just wondering if the current climate, with work contract volume seeming to be on the improve, is a good time for them to acquire more MAH or if they are getting what they want out of the deal already without needing an increase. Anyones thoughts would be appreciated as mine tend to be a bit biased having worked in the industry.

 

[Julia]

I don't hold either Leightons (way over priced at the moment IMHO)

Can you say why do you think they're over-priced?

They're still very considerably (around $25) below their previous high.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'd agree with all the positive sentiments. The gumnut family have had some dealings with MAH and they are a very well run company. They downsized recently prior to the gfc and have some good contracts.

Anyway that is all funnymentalism, and not worth two lumps of horse****.

The chart looks enticing. Many weak holders have been shaken out since Nov 08. I may throw a few zloty at MAH next week.

gg

 

[Putty7]

Can you say why do you think they're over-priced?

They're still very considerably (around $25) below their previous high.

Hi Julia, I think a fair valuation from Etrade is around $20, at the moment LEI are around the $35 mark, A lot of stuff they release in regards to upcoming work falls under their lesser companies, they do tender a lot of work and bring a lot to the table with good top end job management with contractors falling in underneath them to do the actual work.

One thing coming up which may affect them is the amalgamation of RIO and BHP's iron ore infrastructure, HWE (LEI) have traditionally done BHP's contract mine work but the amalgamation will see BHP go to owner-operator mining, with contractors taking a very minor role, not sure where this will leave HWE.

Another thing is how much the Government plans to spend on infrastructure over the next few years with such a large debt hanging over them, they have promised a lot but seeing those promises come to fruition may be another thing entirely. Recently Leightons has had the Mandurah bypass and the Mandurah railway in WA, two very big jobs for State government, there are more coming up but not to the scale of these jobs that they undertook while they were at their peak SP.

I just noticed the Macas announcement and figured it would be interesting to see what opinions others had. I have worked for Leightons and hold them and a lot of the Leightons people I have met in high regard so it's hard to remain unbiased when MAH have been their main opposition over here for years.

 

[Miner]

Hi Julia, I think a fair valuation from Etrade is around $20, at the moment LEI are around the $35 mark, A lot of stuff they release in regards to upcoming work falls under their lesser companies, they do tender a lot of work and bring a lot to the table with good top end job management with contractors falling in underneath them to do the actual work.

One thing coming up which may affect them is the amalgamation of RIO and BHP's iron ore infrastructure, HWE (LEI) have traditionally done BHP's contract mine work but the amalgamation will see BHP go to owner-operator mining, with contractors taking a very minor role, not sure where this will leave HWE.

Another thing is how much the Government plans to spend on infrastructure over the next few years with such a large debt hanging over them, they have promised a lot but seeing those promises come to fruition may be another thing entirely. Recently Leightons has had the Mandurah bypass and the Mandurah railway in WA, two very big jobs for State government, there are more coming up but not to the scale of these jobs that they undertook while they were at their peak SP.

I just noticed the Macas announcement and figured it would be interesting to see what opinions others had. I have worked for Leightons and hold them and a lot of the Leightons people I have met in high regard so it's hard to remain unbiased when MAH have been their main opposition over here for years.

I realise it is the thread for MAH, But the context is for LEI

Bell has said SELL for LEI
But beware as they have said it before and LEI still went up the hill
Personally I discount BELL recommendation to take decision on the reverse direction. DYOR

See attached report. DNH LEI but do hold MAH

 

[Julia]

Putty, thank you for your comprehensive response - it's appreciated. And apologies to all for hijacking the MAH thread.

 

[geea]

MAH seemed to have a good update yesterday. If it wasn't for the market falling over 2% they probably would have been up quite alot. After the update i'd say it's likely the market will re-rate MAH up and that the SP should have some good upside looking ahead.

 

[bloomy88]

MAH seemed to have a good update yesterday. If it wasn't for the market falling over 2% they probably would have been up quite alot. After the update i'd say it's likely the market will re-rate MAH up and that the SP should have some good upside looking ahead.

Yeah they forcasted NPAT of $34 million in FY10 (which is double FY09)
This works out to EPS of 4.6c (734 mill shares on issue after cap raising) giving a P/E of 12.3.
Still, MAH is a very risky and will get flogged again if the market turns down again. I think there are other more consistent companies out there that dont have the same risk as MAH imo

 

[sasch]

Does anyone else here think Mah is severely undervalued? They announced another $500 contract today. Lei is valued at around $38 and announce a $290 million profit after tax. Mah last close $0.635 forecast profit $34 million. Hmmm. They are announcing their first half results tomorrow,should be interesting.
I guess as others have said they have taken a beating and it will probably take a while for market sentiment to turn.





disclosure- holding mah

 

[sasch]

Does anyone else here think Mah is severely undervalued? They announced another $500 contract today. Lei is valued at around $38 and announce a $290 million profit after tax. Mah last close $0.635 forecast profit $34 million. Hmmm. They are announcing their first half results tomorrow,should be interesting.
I guess as others have said they have taken a beating and it will probably take a while for market sentiment to turn.





disclosure- holding mah

oops should have used market cap to compare the two. lei 11,152 million and mah 462 million.So if i have my figures right this time, lei is earning only a little over a 1/3 of the profit mah is per share.

 

[tunrida]

Does anyone else here think Mah is severely undervalued? They announced another $500 contract today. Lei is valued at around $38 and announce a $290 million profit after tax. Mah last close $0.635 forecast profit $34 million. Hmmm. They are announcing their first half results tomorrow,should be interesting.
I guess as others have said they have taken a beating and it will probably take a while for market sentiment to turn.
disclosure- holding mah

not severely undervalued sasch but a nice pickup atm with both chart (double bottom; cup with handle; yarda yarda) and fundamentals looking good. compared to LEI (on old MAH data)
LEI div 3.2% (100% franked) 3yr div growth f'cast +40%, earnings +20%
MAH div 3.1% (no franking) 3yr div growth f'cast +100%, earnings +120%

 

[tunrida]

rollin'.................................................................................................

 

[Miner]

rollin'.................................................................................................

Hi Tunrida

what is your message with the graph attached ?

Few words will be nice.

though not an issue but wondering how the attachment without any words as such could get filtered through the 100 character restriction

 

[tunrida]

Hi Tunrida

what is your message with the graph attached ?

Few words will be nice.

though not an issue but wondering how the attachment without any words as such could get filtered through the 100 character restriction

a few words??......i thought i was lucky to get away with just one word hoping that it had less chance of offending moderators.
not sure I can say Miner - last week i posted my analysis of recent price action (different share) and the fact that prices had established strong support and resistance levels and price action having poked through such resistance I mentioned the word "..." as a signal (Not that I'm mentioning it here and now mind) and received an infraction notice.....and received yet another infraction notice for suggesting on separate thread that words like b../up/covershort/long/positive etc etc all mean the same to traders so suspect my explanation here will put me over the infraction points limit and result in a permanent exit for tunrida.....nevermind, some they pick on some they don't.
if the moderators were all apparent I would put them all on ignore so as not to inadvertantly respond to any of their posts period - too risky
hoping you get to see this post before it is removed
cheers

 

[Miner]

a few words??......i thought i was lucky to get away with just one word hoping that it had less chance of offending moderators.
not sure I can say Miner - last week i posted my analysis of recent price action (different share) and the fact that prices had established strong support and resistance levels and price action having poked through such resistance I mentioned the word "..." as a signal (Not that I'm mentioning it here and now mind) and received an infraction notice.....and received yet another infraction notice for suggesting on separate thread that words like b../up/covershort/long/positive etc etc all mean the same to traders so suspect my explanation here will put me over the infraction points limit and result in a permanent exit for tunrida.....nevermind, some they pick on some they don't.
if the moderators were all apparent I would put them all on ignore so as not to inadvertantly respond to any of their posts period - too risky
hoping you get to see this post before it is removed
cheers

Dear Tunrida

Not to be worried friend.
Mods are like us but with higher responsibilities to make the site a better one.

I have tried to visit HC and many people like it but I felt to be a misfit there.

Please do not feel bad if mods are watching us for the best interest of all.

As you can see they have taken on board what you said and your posting is still there.

Surely you would have received some PM from them but that is life and to keep us on track. I have also received refractions in the past but moved on.

Have a good profit from MAH whatever your strategy with MAH is.

I am a holder and a bit loyal to MAH just because I liked the organisation and its business.

 

[Miner]

At last MAH is turning the wheel to churn some butter from the milkpot.
It is going to have a serious dating with LEI to taste the togetherness.
A contract for underground rail contract is awarded to LEI and MAH to work together. The trading will be lifted and certainly the market will receive this news with smile.

If I look back the scenario of LEI intention to acquire MAH at one stage could come closer and may happen in 2010 if the dating between MAH and LEI goes well in Hongkong. My wishful thoughts.

I do have a lot of respect for current MAH management and well aware of the shrewed halk eye of LEI management towards M & A,

My cynical mind asks this question: why MAH stopped trading to announce this but LEI did not stop trading. Was it because the announcement and impact of $ was too big for MAH due to its capital base and was rather insignificant for LEI to stop its trading. Interesting if that is so. It means punter and insider of MAH and LEI could capitalise on LEI shares in that case.

Any way MAH holders and aspirants - have a great day
PS : Disclaimer I do hold a small parcel