Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MAH - Macmahon Holdings

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2020 Yearly Competition Pick .... just by viewing Monthly Charts.
Maybe it's problems are over now, the last monthly bar has taken price to it's highest close in about 7 years.
Consolidated over the last couple of years and is now pushing the bollinger bands apart as price goes higher. Certainly has plenty of room for price to go higher from here.

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Nothing really that interesting going on here but I noticed that PRN and MAH trade at very different multiples to book value when you adjust for intangibles.

PRN has a MC of about $765m for $1,322m in net assets ~ 0.58x
MAH has a MC of about $345m for $559m in net assets ~ 0.61x

Strip out intangibles from the accounts:

PRN has a MC of about $765m for $670m in net assets ~ 1.14x
MAH has a MC of about $345m for $543m in net assets ~ 0.63x

Also

PRN EPS: $0.057 @ $1.11 SP ~ 20x earnings
MAH EPS: $0.013 @ $0.16 SP ~ 12x earnings

PRN LT Debt to Equity ~ 66% (130% if you take out intangibles)
MAH LT Debt to Equity ~ 54% (55% if you take out intangibles)

Any thoughts here? Or are we just all racist investors? MAH is still to my knowledge nearly 50% owned by some Indonesian/Singapore based company - which I can understand spooks investors in Australia - however this is a pretty big difference in valuation.
 
Even at the lower ROE of 10% for the last two financial years MAH looks significantly undervalued? Price to book is x 0.7, p/e is x 5.4
The Quarterly chart shown looks promising, with 4 consecutive positive candles and the price is at a resistance level of ~20c.
The weekly chart not shown suggests to me a maturing inverted head and shoulders with neckline at 20c.
Brokers look to be backing it so that's a caution. Also a bit of a turn-off are the 2 years of losses going back more than 6 years in its history.

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QUARTERLY
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finicky said:
finicky said:
Even at the lower ROE of 10% for the last two financial years MAH looks significantly undervalued? Price to book is x 0.7, p/e is x 5.4
The Quarterly chart shown looks promising, with 4 consecutive positive candles and the price is at a resistance level of ~20c.
The weekly chart not shown suggests to me a maturing inverted head and shoulders with neckline at 20c.
Brokers look to be backing it so that's a caution. Also a bit of a turn-off are the 2 years of losses going back more than 6 years in its history.

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QUARTERLY
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Yea.... Looks too good to be true.

Taking a look at it now though.
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Isn't this takeover of Decmil (DCG) a big overpay?
According to MAH the offer implies an Enterprise Value to DCG of $127m.
The Market Cap of DCG yesterday was $26.4m. So that's an EV/MC multiple of 4.8x. But DCG held net debt, so worse if comparing EV implied by the offer to actual EV of yesterday.
Decmil EBITDA for FY23 was only $9m! and that was a massive improvement on the previous 3 years. So implied enterprise value of the offer to that EBITDA is 14x
($127m÷ $9m).
Little wonder that the DCG board, management and major shareholders are going for it?
Price chart of MAH was a rising trend, DCG was flat-lining. MAH has been quite profitable, whereas DCG was still declaring a small loss in FY23 after some devastating years.

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finicky said:
Isn't this takeover of Decmil (DCG) a big overpay?
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as a former ( badly scorched ) DCG share-holder , yes it seems so the me ( a huge premium )

now maybe DCG has a prize customer left , or there are some compelling synergies

i guess time will tell ( maybe somebody else was running the tape-measure over DCG as well )
 
@divs4ever definitely some synergies it seems but paying a pretty price, maybe the boards are pals. Didn't think of possible MAH rivals looking DCG over. Has certainly put me off MAH, had it on mental watch for a pullback.
 
after a brief look over the 'refreshed DCG ' ( through the painful memories )

maybe there is some useful talent at director and staff level , that has attracted MAH ( one might watch who moves towards the MAH employee payroll and who doesn't

talent and physical assets ??
i guess time will tell

i might wait and see if i can get a MAH toehold around 20c a share
 
finicky said:
@divs4ever definitely some synergies it seems but paying a pretty price, maybe the boards are pals. Didn't think of possible MAH rivals looking DCG over. Has certainly put me off MAH, had it on mental watch for a pullback.
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well MAH has certainly experienced a pull-back , but is it a a good deal ( assuming the usual teething pains of a take-over ) ( and an all-cash deal to boot )
 
MAH @ 24c

Didn't notice this from 5 days ago; MAH getting a $352m contract from Anglogold Ashanti at the Tropicana operation.

I notice that the Decmil acquisition announcement 16 April only had a negative reaction for that one day and then the chart continued its uptrend to 26c. Now it could be rolling over or just consolidating as there has been a rocket under it for almost a year?

In terms of value though it still looks cheap if one is to overlook doubts regarding what looks to be overpayment for the Decmil takeover. It is still trading below book value which is cheap for its average ROE if restricting the vision to the last 5 years, plus H1 of this year? Prior to that, el crappo.

www.australianmining.com.au

AngloGold Ashanti awards $352m Tropicana contract

AngloGold Ashanti has extended a three-year contract with Macmahon for underground mining services at the Tropicana gold operation in Western Australia.
www.australianmining.com.au www.australianmining.com.au

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Unlikely to buy

WEEKLY
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MAH up 6% today on strongish volume, with a break from a flag suggesting continuation?

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Have stopped considering after Decmil (DCG) acquisition

DAILY
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always messy .... down 10 per cent today
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Macmahon understands that the
appointment of the Receivers and Managers had been made in response to the decision by Calidus’ Board of Directors to appoint Voluntary Administrators on 28 June 2024 as outlined in the ASX announcement by KordaMentha dated 1 July 2024.
Macmahon provides mining and drill and blast services to Calidus at their Warrawoona mine. Macmahon’s preliminary assessment of net current exposure under the contract is circa $33.9 million. Macmahon also holds an equity interest in Calidus listed shares with a value of $5.7 million at the close of trading on 28 June 2024.

The Receivers and Managers have advised that they have held urgent discussions with key stakeholders. Macmahon has communicated our intention to support the process being undertaken.
 
Don't think I'd be taking notice of this broker.
MAH is playing around near a 4 year high and its main indicator has retreated somewhat as the price moved higher.

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Not Buying

  • Macmahon Raised to Buy at Argonaut Securities

WEEKLY
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