tinhat
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Hey - that's my old avatar. Which I think I will reinstate.
Magic Acts or Mass Hypnosis and Shared Delusions
- Thread starter kahuna1
- Start date
Hey - that's my old avatar. Which I think I will reinstate.
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Thanks for the update on private debt.
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Hi,
its time ...
but will take a while to write it.
Welcome to the new world. Revolution occurred .... people desperate for change /// polarized voting and voted for the one person or candidate who already has said he will NOT do three simple things and the ONLY things that will help.
He in fact said the opposite in most cases to what is desperately needed.
And those three things are ?
Nothing new from me ...they are the only solution and they just sadly voted the one candidate in that utterly assures the poor of no change.
Back in a week or two with the novel.
Most if not many have any idea what happened and why ... especially in the USA.
It is with great regret USA now fighting what is a bush-fire and all poor people desperate for change ctuall elected a madman who believe putting more petrol on the fire will work ...
I pray for vision but sadly the line has been cast.
Cheers back in Dec
its time ...
but will take a while to write it.
Welcome to the new world. Revolution occurred .... people desperate for change /// polarized voting and voted for the one person or candidate who already has said he will NOT do three simple things and the ONLY things that will help.
He in fact said the opposite in most cases to what is desperately needed.
And those three things are ?
Nothing new from me ...they are the only solution and they just sadly voted the one candidate in that utterly assures the poor of no change.
Back in a week or two with the novel.
Most if not many have any idea what happened and why ... especially in the USA.
It is with great regret USA now fighting what is a bush-fire and all poor people desperate for change ctuall elected a madman who believe putting more petrol on the fire will work ...
I pray for vision but sadly the line has been cast.
Cheers back in Dec
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Meanwhile.
Talk at APEC about going on without the US, an APEC free/trade agreement without them.
Perhaps all is not lost, the time perhaps has come for Chinese leadership...cant believe im saying that.
Talk at APEC about going on without the US, an APEC free/trade agreement without them.
Perhaps all is not lost, the time perhaps has come for Chinese leadership...cant believe im saying that.
- Joined
- 18 June 2004
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- 638
Hi,
no sorry for the delay ... this will be a while. About a month ... end Jan 2017
Don't worry ... whilst a stopping point on the S+P 500 at recent highs and a serious one .... that I doubt will be the high. My computer model, the pure technical mechanical one puts the chances of the recent S&P 500 high ... all time high on the USA markets being one of any significance at less than 15% chance ... me ... and this is opinion based upon other factors,other fundamental computer value models .... rates the chances at less than 1%.
I do know what my models are telling me the likely high will be and its miles away.
Yes I know Janet raised rates ... second time in a decade ...
her threatening 3 more rises in 2017 ? Yeah and she will pay 0.75% MORE interest on 4 trillion in bonds she needs to fund.
Nope no rush ... Trump looks like a winner ...
My issues are massive .... NOT NEW ... history goes back a long way ... but to get perspective ... as MAGS said I am having trouble.
Whilst doing well and slowly our market plays a bit of catch up ... I feel like when I went long Uranium stocks very briefly .... in and out for a big gain ... but knowing the end result would be what it was.
FACTS are hard to come by .... FAKE NEWS ... FAKE this fake that ... I note with amusement and a degree of sadness I cannot even begin to share that two poverty studies came out recently .... both USED fake statistics and still USA came 8/9 or 10 out of 10 .... for both of them. IF the actual numbers were used .... and they are NOT hard to bloody find ... FACTUAL NUMBERS .. America ... CAME 11TH IN A 10 HORSE RACE.
A very clear picture of the plan is and was fairly clear .... sadly ... any economic number reported in the USA is now under the direction of one member of the cabal or another. To rebuild a single number so it represents say what the EU or Germany or Japan or Australia calls say CPI takes 3-4 hours.
I am working my way through them, not crucial to the overall picture .... just want all ducks lined up and backed up via scientific fact before I let this one go.
In 1929 .... my overall value index I built myself ... I called it the Kahuna Index and did share a few years ago ... it got to 273.4% of fair value way back then ....
IN 2000 we didn't get close to that overall ... yes over 200% of fair value ... basically 3 times where it should be trading ... not 4 times ...
In 2007 we topped out the USA at close to the 2000 high in the S+P 500 so allowing for inflation and GDP growth it was about 10% lower ....
Now after 10 years of what I call idiot economists ... climate deniers ... flat earth idiots ... bubble blind dicks ... I wish to congratulate them ... finally ... it looks as though two totally unrelated computer models of mine ... WILL MEET ... YES MEET the old 1929 high in terms of value meets ... 6 different massive technical levels and at the same time ....
Like in 2007 .... at the same time .... the underlying market was evaporating ... and meanwhile back then the BEA was reporting the USA economy grew 4.9% in Q3 2007 .... my comment then was Citibank just went bankrupt .... not technically but actually .... and it was the first of many ...
Here in 2016 .... or 2017 ... I suspect we have a little ways to go ... Trump is full of hot air .... Yellen needs to preside over her third disaster and the first was the S+L crisis and the largest worst lender out of San Fran ... under San Fran Fed president YEllens supervision .... Countrywide .... pre GFC asked if she thought there was a bubble in San Fran prices which had tripled .... she went NO ... asked if she did she a bubble would she raise rates ... he answer was no ... and asked if she had a brain .... she went NO.
I am annoyed with these people ... but for now ... no rush.
Last time I did a set of papers was 2013/14 ... and that was talking about Debt and how the USA Fed if it raised rates in 2014 ... it would be technically broke .. I went on to speak at length about EU bonds and this brewing debt issue .... the conclusion WAS EU was being attacked via proxy ... via the USA and ratings agencies were being controlled and grossly unfair in lowering credit ratings of EU nations which as a group collect 40% of GDP in tax.
In simple terms EU nations all owing around 110% of GDP in debt ... had 40% of GDP coming in each year .... and my view was they had balanced the books ... which is clear in 2017 YES they fixed the leak ... have funded the baby boomers and demographic time bomb ... and as such I thought it was idiotic that Italy with debt to GDP at say 120% income of 40% of GDP had to pay 2.5% MORE than the USA for its debt when the USA ... when measured IGNORING its unfunded pensions .... USA was 100% in debt but only collected 27% overall in taxes and of this a mere 17% is collected federally .... 17% to fund 100% debt .... v Italy 40% to fund 120% ... which is the better risk ...
well stuff me the cat got out of the bag and the world FINALLY woke up to the sad reality and here we have the Yanks now paying more than Italy and even Spain for their debt.
By the time I am finished this paper .... people ... will begin to wonder a bit more. Its sad ... heartbreaking and not a thing I do or say will change anything as per normal.
People do what they wish ... UNTIL they don't.
The time-line is finite and explosive I suspect this time ....
Trump is just a distraction ... no chance he is a solution because ... because ... for the usual reason NO ONE or very few see the actual problem.
That's what happens when you play with Statistics ... you have no idea what is UP or down ... when you do the same with budgets ... pensions and its being done by 50 different self interest lobbying groups ... no one has an idea what they have created.
A mess sadly the understatement of the year on this one.
Back next year ... 2017 ... merry new year ... and by the end of Trumps first 4 years, all 8 million Vietnam Era Veterans will have retired ... of them 2.8 million served actually in Vietnam ....
My mythical couple Billy Bob and Sallie Mae .. salt of the earth types and with a gun collection of 109 guns ... having been told in 2008 their county pensions were cut in half .... I am actually not about to tell them that in 2017 ... their pension instead of making an absurd return of 8% each year has only been making 1% and during Trumps term .... their county pensions will be cut again in half so something likely 20% of what they thought they were getting for 30 years of being underpaid by the county ... their retirement pension is .... well ... gone.
Will MR Bush .... oops sorry Trump tell them ... the Federal one is ... gone ? Or more accurately never was there ? How will they take it ? How will 80 million of the 100 million baby boomers utterly reliant upon these pensions for old age take it ?
I am sure it will be fine ....
Be prepared for some spicy comments when I am done .... NO PUNCHES will be pulled ....
That's what's taking the time ... the scope and lack of humanity .... one side ... getting facts ... FACTS V Opinions ... Scientific Facts and so I can congratulate these people correctly.
Ahh must run .... but nope high I suspect ... a way aways ...
Take care
no sorry for the delay ... this will be a while. About a month ... end Jan 2017
Don't worry ... whilst a stopping point on the S+P 500 at recent highs and a serious one .... that I doubt will be the high. My computer model, the pure technical mechanical one puts the chances of the recent S&P 500 high ... all time high on the USA markets being one of any significance at less than 15% chance ... me ... and this is opinion based upon other factors,other fundamental computer value models .... rates the chances at less than 1%.
I do know what my models are telling me the likely high will be and its miles away.
Yes I know Janet raised rates ... second time in a decade ...
her threatening 3 more rises in 2017 ? Yeah and she will pay 0.75% MORE interest on 4 trillion in bonds she needs to fund.
Nope no rush ... Trump looks like a winner ...
My issues are massive .... NOT NEW ... history goes back a long way ... but to get perspective ... as MAGS said I am having trouble.
Whilst doing well and slowly our market plays a bit of catch up ... I feel like when I went long Uranium stocks very briefly .... in and out for a big gain ... but knowing the end result would be what it was.
FACTS are hard to come by .... FAKE NEWS ... FAKE this fake that ... I note with amusement and a degree of sadness I cannot even begin to share that two poverty studies came out recently .... both USED fake statistics and still USA came 8/9 or 10 out of 10 .... for both of them. IF the actual numbers were used .... and they are NOT hard to bloody find ... FACTUAL NUMBERS .. America ... CAME 11TH IN A 10 HORSE RACE.
A very clear picture of the plan is and was fairly clear .... sadly ... any economic number reported in the USA is now under the direction of one member of the cabal or another. To rebuild a single number so it represents say what the EU or Germany or Japan or Australia calls say CPI takes 3-4 hours.
I am working my way through them, not crucial to the overall picture .... just want all ducks lined up and backed up via scientific fact before I let this one go.
In 1929 .... my overall value index I built myself ... I called it the Kahuna Index and did share a few years ago ... it got to 273.4% of fair value way back then ....
IN 2000 we didn't get close to that overall ... yes over 200% of fair value ... basically 3 times where it should be trading ... not 4 times ...
In 2007 we topped out the USA at close to the 2000 high in the S+P 500 so allowing for inflation and GDP growth it was about 10% lower ....
Now after 10 years of what I call idiot economists ... climate deniers ... flat earth idiots ... bubble blind dicks ... I wish to congratulate them ... finally ... it looks as though two totally unrelated computer models of mine ... WILL MEET ... YES MEET the old 1929 high in terms of value meets ... 6 different massive technical levels and at the same time ....
Like in 2007 .... at the same time .... the underlying market was evaporating ... and meanwhile back then the BEA was reporting the USA economy grew 4.9% in Q3 2007 .... my comment then was Citibank just went bankrupt .... not technically but actually .... and it was the first of many ...
Here in 2016 .... or 2017 ... I suspect we have a little ways to go ... Trump is full of hot air .... Yellen needs to preside over her third disaster and the first was the S+L crisis and the largest worst lender out of San Fran ... under San Fran Fed president YEllens supervision .... Countrywide .... pre GFC asked if she thought there was a bubble in San Fran prices which had tripled .... she went NO ... asked if she did she a bubble would she raise rates ... he answer was no ... and asked if she had a brain .... she went NO.
I am annoyed with these people ... but for now ... no rush.
Last time I did a set of papers was 2013/14 ... and that was talking about Debt and how the USA Fed if it raised rates in 2014 ... it would be technically broke .. I went on to speak at length about EU bonds and this brewing debt issue .... the conclusion WAS EU was being attacked via proxy ... via the USA and ratings agencies were being controlled and grossly unfair in lowering credit ratings of EU nations which as a group collect 40% of GDP in tax.
In simple terms EU nations all owing around 110% of GDP in debt ... had 40% of GDP coming in each year .... and my view was they had balanced the books ... which is clear in 2017 YES they fixed the leak ... have funded the baby boomers and demographic time bomb ... and as such I thought it was idiotic that Italy with debt to GDP at say 120% income of 40% of GDP had to pay 2.5% MORE than the USA for its debt when the USA ... when measured IGNORING its unfunded pensions .... USA was 100% in debt but only collected 27% overall in taxes and of this a mere 17% is collected federally .... 17% to fund 100% debt .... v Italy 40% to fund 120% ... which is the better risk ...
well stuff me the cat got out of the bag and the world FINALLY woke up to the sad reality and here we have the Yanks now paying more than Italy and even Spain for their debt.
By the time I am finished this paper .... people ... will begin to wonder a bit more. Its sad ... heartbreaking and not a thing I do or say will change anything as per normal.
People do what they wish ... UNTIL they don't.
The time-line is finite and explosive I suspect this time ....
Trump is just a distraction ... no chance he is a solution because ... because ... for the usual reason NO ONE or very few see the actual problem.
That's what happens when you play with Statistics ... you have no idea what is UP or down ... when you do the same with budgets ... pensions and its being done by 50 different self interest lobbying groups ... no one has an idea what they have created.
A mess sadly the understatement of the year on this one.
Back next year ... 2017 ... merry new year ... and by the end of Trumps first 4 years, all 8 million Vietnam Era Veterans will have retired ... of them 2.8 million served actually in Vietnam ....
My mythical couple Billy Bob and Sallie Mae .. salt of the earth types and with a gun collection of 109 guns ... having been told in 2008 their county pensions were cut in half .... I am actually not about to tell them that in 2017 ... their pension instead of making an absurd return of 8% each year has only been making 1% and during Trumps term .... their county pensions will be cut again in half so something likely 20% of what they thought they were getting for 30 years of being underpaid by the county ... their retirement pension is .... well ... gone.
Will MR Bush .... oops sorry Trump tell them ... the Federal one is ... gone ? Or more accurately never was there ? How will they take it ? How will 80 million of the 100 million baby boomers utterly reliant upon these pensions for old age take it ?
I am sure it will be fine ....
Be prepared for some spicy comments when I am done .... NO PUNCHES will be pulled ....
That's what's taking the time ... the scope and lack of humanity .... one side ... getting facts ... FACTS V Opinions ... Scientific Facts and so I can congratulate these people correctly.
Ahh must run .... but nope high I suspect ... a way aways ...
Take care
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