Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

I might protest.
I might rev up all the surrounding neighbourhoods, ramp up the fear as much as possible, then quietly buy up their houses for nothing, build lots of cheap units then rent them out to Lynas workers for inflated prices with my little monopoly!!
May even get a bonus if some issue arises and I can claim damages for it.

It's not really exploitation, if that .01% is such a bogie then I will be the white night rescuing the existing residence from the .001% risk of a misshap. Then the only people at risk would be Lynas colluders!
Further, in allowing Lynas to function as a clean plant it may make it harder for the Chinese atrocities and horrific environmental poising they impose on their own people and the world without the slightest conscience.
One instance that was recently reported in the Financial Review of all places, was some Chinese factory that just lets it’s toxic waist go into the local river area and all the people are constantly getting sick and being poisoned and so on. This is normal practice in China. The Chinese government assures the local populations with all it’s propaganda that they are cleaning it up and fixing the issues.
In this instance, after six years of nothing happening this one guy starts protesting outside the factory. He is arrested, thrown in jail, hung from the roof for three days, beaten with bamboo sticks till he is bloodied all over his body. Then kept incarcerated for three years barley given enough to eat and drink, no medical assistance nothing. Even whilst set free he is routinely harrassed by police in plane clothes.
Oh yeah, if people like this try to escape China they are shot along with the rest of their families, often after horrific torture. That's why you don't get to hear much about it the Chinese people and peoples they occupy are too terrified. I dunno. A clean Lynas plant is a better option than letting the Chinese take over the world I reckon.
I'd sleep on top of it's chimney if it would help in that regard!
 
IA clean Lynas plant is a better option than letting the Chinese take over the world I reckon.
That is essentially the same argument that's been used for years in Australia in regard to controversial projects.

Gunns pulp mill at Bell Bay and the Wesley Vale mill before it, the recent NW Shelf gas developments, Australian industry in general in terms of the CO2 emissions debate, even as far back as the Gordon-below-Franklin dam 30 years ago.

With the exception of gas in WA where big money is involved, the argument hasn't been a political winner thus far at the national level. At the local level perhaps it might work but it hasn't changed national policy in Australia thus far so I wouldn't count on that argument working in Malaysia either.

One thing the pro-development side took years to realise but did eventually accept in relation to some of those other debates is that it tends to be far too scientifically based. Logical, rational arguments in favour of dams, mills or whatever backed by solid maths are nowhere near as effective as just one good photo taken by the other side. Emotion wins practically every time where the environment is concerned (and engineers aren't known for using emotion).
 
One thing really comes to mind about this project.

Why not build it in Australia?

I suspect the answer to that will reveal rather a lot. :2twocents
 
One thing really comes to mind about this project.

Why not build it in Australia?

I suspect the answer to that will reveal rather a lot. :2twocents

Because it's easie/cheaper to distribute from there. It's not an environment thing. Remember we're putting our hand up to become a nuclear dump, we have plenty of uninhabitable space for dirty things(not that I'm saying it can't be done cleanly). But Malaysia was a stupid choice given the history and Chinese population/infiltration.
 
One thing really comes to mind about this project.

Why not build it in Australia?

I suspect the answer to that will reveal rather a lot. :2twocents

*12 years tax free granted by Malaysian government for pioneer status to attract Lynas to Malaysia.

*Cheap labour.

*Cheap land.

*Close proximity to end users China & Japan.

Remember China has a 95% monopoly of the ree market atm and will become net importers within 5 years.
 
China, the biggest supplier of rare earths, may almost double exports this year and meet quotas set by the government as lower prices stimulate demand.

Predictable given Lynas is to be starting up production at about that time. Manipulating nasty things that they are.
 
SP 1.10 today. If this pullback brings it down to 0.90 - 1.00 we'll find out who the true believers are. Tempting, but the next lower support at 0.50 is a long way down.
 
I'd say 50c is about fair given the environment it's chosen and what rare earth prices are doing in general.
Even at 50c I wouldn't be getting excited, though it would probably find allot of support.
 
errrr..... how it could go as low as 50-90c? some more bad news will come? i thought new plant will be done very soon?
 
errrr..... how it could go as low as 50-90c? some more bad news will come? i thought new plant will be done very soon?
There is ALOT! of resistance over there , The next election is coming up soon and I wouldn't be surprised if Lynas gets denied , It's not a good situation to be in IMO.
 
If it gets denied Lynas will be able to sue the living day lights out of the government and Malaysia will have a massive sovereign risk tagged on it's face.
They'd be insane to deny it after the thing has been permitted to be constructed.
Not going to happen! They will find a political way around it.
Maybe that party has no hope of winning.
 
Not long to go now!

- AELB have approved the TOL.

- LAMP almost complete.

- Cashed up with recent 225m convertible bonds issue.

- Contracts for stage 1 already signed up.

- Substantial holders increasing their positions.

We can expect 3 BIG ANN's either late this month or early April.

As always DYOR.
 
08 Mar 2012 1.080 -1.82% 1.130 1.070 22,173,636
07 Mar 2012 1.100 -1.79% 1.135 1.090 21,126,909
06 Mar 2012 1.120 -0.88% 1.160 1.115 18,556,675
05 Mar 2012 1.130 -0.88% 1.165 1.120 16,657,664

Draw a line on the LYC graph @ 1.08

There is a TONNE of support at around $1.08.

Seems like someone MAY be accumulating.

I doubt we'll see lynas below $1.08.. if it does stop losses may be hit.

Last few days has seen very strong for LYC. Hence why I THINK bottom may be hit at $1.08.

Always, DYOR. (I am already in @1.09).

Again, I am buying the rumour (i.e. expecting positive anns to come out in April).
 
Actually its fact not rumour buying today. Molycorp (US) is taking over Neo Materials (CN)

which is a positive read though for LYC ARU etc
 
Draw a line on the LYC graph @ 1.08

There is a TONNE of support at around $1.08.

Seems like someone MAY be accumulating.

I doubt we'll see lynas below $1.08.. if it does stop losses may be hit.

Last few days has seen very strong for LYC. Hence why I THINK bottom may be hit at $1.08.

If your thesis is that someone is accumulating which is generating strong support at 1.08, may I ask what you propose happens when they cease their operations?

I'm just itching to trade LYC, but I am also very scared of the sovereign risk, and the sp just collapsing one day because of it...

What makes people like you so sure it will not be a problem?
 
Good to see the gap fill @ 1.075 yesterday and a nice bounce off the gap support today.

It was reported in a malaysian article yesterday that Lynas has submitted a letter of content to the AELB and were looking to pay the first installment of 10 million which are both conditions that had to be met prior to the issue of the TOL.
 
If your thesis is that someone is accumulating which is generating strong support at 1.08, may I ask what you propose happens when they cease their operations?

I'm just itching to trade LYC, but I am also very scared of the sovereign risk, and the sp just collapsing one day because of it...

What makes people like you so sure it will not be a problem?

For point 1, I don't think it's 1 person. I think it is a safe entry buy for a lot of traders. Note: this is based on the theory that LYC will be trading SIDEWAYS throughout 2012. (already setting up like so)

For sovereign risk, I too am very scared. Unexpected announcements just part of the game and have to look for best exit if trapped long.

If you are scared of sovereign risk, should you not also be scared of positive announcements and missing out on potential gains?

Have to weigh out this risk/reward.
 
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