LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[lenny]

Are you saying the license is 2 years or implying that they will be taking 2 years to decide on it

The temporary license will most likely be issued a few days after the 30th of Jan which is needed to ramp up production and final commissioning of stage 1.

The full license will come some time in a two year period after the temporary license is issued for stage 1 when stage 2 is completed and provided the commissioning of stage 1 goes to plan.

Hope this helps.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

The temporary license will most likely be issued a few days after the 30th of Jan which is needed to ramp up production and final commissioning of stage 1.

The full license will come some time in a two year period after the temporary license is issued for stage 1 when stage 2 is completed and provided the commissioning of stage 1 goes to plan.

Hope this helps.

So are you saying that the temporary licence will be 2 years in length, or is the time-frame entirely arbitrary and up to the government/regulators?

 

[lenny]

So are you saying that the temporary licence will be 2 years in length, or is the time-frame entirely arbitrary and up to the government/regulators?

The temporary license will be granted by the Malaysian government but LYC has to satisfy the AELB.

The way I read the latest Ann is that the AElB is satisfied with the application, just needs to follow the process of informing locals and letting them have their say.

So yes the time of 2 years is just ball park, but the full license obviously can't be
issued until stage 2 is completed. IMO it's conservative!

Main point is that cash will start rolling in under the temp license if it is granted.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

The way I read the latest Ann is that the AElB is satisfied with the application, just needs to follow the process of informing locals and letting them have their say.

Is that a formality though or will they deny the application based on local sentiment? Of course as we all know it is not that great.

 

[danbradster]

Is that a formality though or will they deny the application based on local sentiment? Of course as we all know it is not that great.

It is minority sentiment rather than local sentiment. One would expect that science would win over minority sentiment...

 

[KTrade]

Decision on Lynas licence may be postponed:

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2012/01/12/decision-on-lynas-licence-may-be-postponed/

 

[Smurf1976]

It is minority sentiment rather than local sentiment. One would expect that science would win over minority sentiment...

Every time I've heard that sentiment regarding environment versus development in Australia the outcome has been the reverse. Minority sentiment wins out over science practically every time. I don't know what happens in Malaysia, but that's the track record here in Australia.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

You'd think if it was clearly within the guidelines there wouldn't be many things to talk about further...

 

[lenny]

Today's close looks pretty important!

Looks ripe for a shake out ATM.

 

[notting]

Molycorps had a bit of a spike recently, after a pretty bad year mind you.
LYC has failed to follow the spike thus far, waiting for that second skid - it's all up to you management!? Feels dangerous just being in this thread

 

[skc]

With the 30 Jan deadline looming, the chart is telling me "Stay the hell out".

How dead is this 30 Jan deadline anyway? As it is a political process, can it be delayed further?

If the news is bad, 70c may offer some support followed by 50c. If the news is good, it will blast off above $1.20 in a few minutes. Still.... the chart says to me avoid for now.

On hindsight, we will either be saying "The chart knows everything" or "Efficient market hypothesis my ar$e".

 

[lenny]

View attachment 45798

How dead is this 30 Jan deadline anyway? As it is a political process, can it be delayed further?

Pretty crucial imo SKC, theres no reason why the decision can't be delayed especially with Malaysian elections on the horizon.

TA is saying this stock is on its way to test 85 cents.

FA is saying if the POL is granted this stock will be over 2 bucks.

There are alot of people stuck in this stock sitting on big losses delaying the POL could be the straw that brakes the camels back especially when the SP heads south.

 

[6figures]

Increase in Mt Weld Resource Estimate for the Central Lanthanide Deposit and Duncan Deposit

● The Mineral Resource estimate for Mount Weld is now 23.9 million tonnes, at an average grade of 7.9% REO, for a total of 1.9 million tonnes REO. This represents a 37% increase versus the previous Resource estimate announced in September 2010 and a 34% increase in contained REO. This Resource is comprised of the Central Lanthanide Deposit and the Duncan Deposit.

● The Resource estimate for the Central Lanthanide Deposit has increased by 51% to 14.9 million tonnes, at an average grade of 9.8% REO, for a total of 1.5 million tonnes REO. This represents a 38% increase in contained REO.

● The Resource estimate for the Duncan Deposit has increased by 18% to 9.0 million tonnes, at an average grade of 4.8% REO, for a total of 431,600 tonnes REO. This also represents an increase of 18% in contained REO.

● Preliminary process test work on the Duncan deposit continues.

May spark a few buyers, minor spike in share price, investors these days are very reactionary, looking at a 3% jump today imo.

Thoughts?

Extracted: https://www.belldirect.com.au/file.type?type=3&id=815148

 

[notting]

Increase in Mt Weld Resource Estimate for the Central Lanthanide Deposit and Duncan Deposit

Irreleveant, is the word that comes to mind.

Rare earths are everywhere. It's all about how this thing is managed.
So far below par.

 

[payshense]

Irreleveant, is the word that comes to mind.

Rare earths are everywhere. It's all about how this thing is managed.
So far below par.

would you care to elaborate?

as although the outcome of LYC moving forward, has become a political/protest agenda.
i would think that such an upgrade in resource size has everything to do with short term price movement as was suggested earlier in this thread.

 

[notting]

i would think that such an upgrade in resource size has everything to do with short term price movement as was suggested earlier in this thread.

Of course, and they make great shorting opportunities when they start to splutter and fade which normally takes around 3 days.

So far they are late! It's a hard kind of thing to produce, I'm told.
I'm rootin for em to stick it to China, but don't like the fact the CEO sold out or how Molycorp who are already producing have been going.
Net Revenue of $138 million
39% net revenue growth over Q2, 2011
SP of $131.91 kg, 75% increase over Q2, 2011
63.4% Consolidated Gross Margin
73% growth for operating income over Q2, 2011
With all that great news the stock has tanked savagely!
You wouldn't want less than stella results!! If this is the best Moly can do in this environment upside seems LED like as it's hardly being cheered by the market even with all the China producers being held back by the murderous communist Chinese regime inflating prices to try to harm US military by making more expense for it and using rare earths themselves to assist local production of electronics and making it more expensive for others.

 

[lenny]

On a technical sense the gap at $1.27 got filled today but has left a gap down at $1.075.

My guess would be that the SM that bought around a $1 would selling out to those that want to speculate on POL decision atm.

 

[payshense]

Hi Notting,

Thanks for your detailed reply. i am hoping on a positive result from the upcoming decision on POL. I am uncertain whether to continue to trade LYC on daily sentiment. Or to now (having sold out of LYC on Friday), sit and wait for the decision. I figure if I wait, at worst I may miss out on a small % of a rise, on POL being granted. As opposed to the risk of being stuck on a rapidly falling LYC share price should POL be declined. Now waiting on release of 'funding transaction' news

 

[skc]

Hi Notting,

Thanks for your detailed reply. i am hoping on a positive result from the upcoming decision on POL. I am uncertain whether to continue to trade LYC on daily sentiment. Or to now (having sold out of LYC on Friday), sit and wait for the decision. I figure if I wait, at worst I may miss out on a small % of a rise, on POL being granted. As opposed to the risk of being stuck on a rapidly falling LYC share price should POL be declined. Now waiting on release of 'funding transaction' news

If the POL is granted I doubt it will be a small % rise...

The funding trasnaction is a bit worrisome. Getting more capital now may be perceived as a lack of confidence in generating revenue / obtaining POL.

 

[notting]

Seems like cynacle timing giving they announce an upgrade in resources let the stock run into and with that a little, then pull a trading holt on likely funding that could be dilutive or expensive!