Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

While I don't particularly disagree with any of this, I still think LYC presents far far too much risk at the moment. I can see a set of events which will have this stock down much more, quite easily.

They really need to announce what is going on with the LAMP, until then I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. If it is delayed, then great - an opportunity to buy in / top up. But if it's something worse....



Lynas Corporation Ltd, which has made a direct capital investment of RM1.318 billion in its Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) as of Sept 31, expects an incremental investment of approximately RM200 million.

In a statement today, the company said the incremental investment would be
from two material suppliers.

"Upstream to the rare earth processing at the LAMP in Gebeng, Pahang, the
plant already has two material suppliers already investing in building and
expanding their operations to supply to LAMP," Lynas said.


Of the RM1.318 billion capital investment, Lynas had invested RM618 million
in Malaysia under Phase One, of which RM235 million was awarded to Kuantan-based contractors.

The current investment enables an initial production capacity of 11,000T
Rare Earth Oxide (REO) per annum of separated Rare Earth products.

Under Phase Two, an additional RM700 million has been allocated for
expansion now underway. "Near to 50 per cent of this investment is spent in
Malaysia for subcontracting requirements and materials purchase while
approximately 40 per cent is for the purchase of equipment and technical
expertise offshore.

"Undertaken by lead contractor Toyo-Thai Corporation Public Limited, these
investments will gear up to an increased production capacity of 22,000T REO per annum," it said.

On human capital investments, the company said Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd's
current payroll already stood at RM26 million per annum. It said Lynas Malaysia is fully manned and managed by Malaysians except for
the four Rare Earth operations experts from China, and the LAMP creates over 35 skilled permanent jobs.

Apart from Lynas' direct investment, the LAMP would create up to an
additional 500 indirect jobs for service providers and contractors, the company
said.

It added that as the first new rare earth supplier outside China, the LAMP
could position Malaysia as the destination of choice for associated
manufacturers of high technology products looking for a base for their
manufacturing operations. -- Bernama

Read more: Lynas sees RM200m incremental investment http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_Ne...111012181247/Article/index_html#ixzz1ae65MlfZ
 
...As of yesterday, local regulators Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) said that it has received the waste management plan but has yet to analyse it.

So there's an answer to everyone saying Lynas doesn't even have a plan.
 
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/177021 said:
KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 13, 2011): Fuziah Salleh (PKR-Kuantan) said the first shipment of radioactive ore bound for the Lynas Advanced Material Plant (LAMP) is expected to be shipped from Mount Weld, Australia by the month's end.

Expressing her concerns, Fuziah, who is also the party’s vice president, said that she received a report that the radioactive ore or Rare Earth Ore (REO) will arrive in Kuantan by end of October.

...

Also disclosing that Lynas had threatened to sue her for defamation for filling a report with the Australian Securities Commission, Fuziah said she will continue to pursue this issue till it is resolved.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/177021

Very interesting stuff right now.
 
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/177021

Very interesting stuff right now.

Read this one for the full story...

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/10/13/radioactive-ore-to-reach-kuantan-this-month/

Lynas meanwhile said that Fuziah was wrong in stating that Lynas was about to bring rare earth ore to Kuantan later this month.

“Her statements are factually inaccurate and misleading, and Lynas needs to clarify this.

“Lynas has no intention to export any rare earth ore to Kuantan and under no circumstance would do so without the requisite approvals, in this case the pre-operational licence for the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP),” said Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd MD Mashal Ahmad in a statement.

He said that Fuziah’s allegation was factually incorrect, ill informed, misleading and damaging to Lynas and the regulators.

“The MPs latest claim casts doubt on her integrity,” added Mashal.
 
Read this one for the full story...

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/10/13/radioactive-ore-to-reach-kuantan-this-month/

Lynas meanwhile said that Fuziah was wrong in stating that Lynas was about to bring rare earth ore to Kuantan later this month.

“Her statements are factually inaccurate and misleading, and Lynas needs to clarify this.

“Lynas has no intention to export any rare earth ore to Kuantan and under no circumstance would do so without the requisite approvals, in this case the pre-operational licence for the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP),” said Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd MD Mashal Ahmad in a statement.

He said that Fuziah’s allegation was factually incorrect, ill informed, misleading and damaging to Lynas and the regulators.

“The MPs latest claim casts doubt on her integrity,” added Mashal.


sounds like dirty biz to me.

Interesting enough Lynas seems to have handed in a waste management plan and obviously no intention to make that public. Didn't we have that before? :banghead:

A wise man once said "making mistakes is no problem, not learning from them is a big one"

I wonder if NC is able to understand that quote :cautious:

regards
Julia
 
At the moment lynas shareprice seems to be more affected by macroeconomic issues than by any actual news on the LAMP.

Even it's massive fall in price was due to Molycorp being downgraded.
 
I'd say insiders have got a sniff the that their license to import rare earths to malaysia could be in doubt.

If so this will test its lows for sure.
 
China is the real dirty business in all this.
More blatant market manipulation.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44953947

Should be good for Lynas.

Agree. China seems to have no interest in prices falling "down to earth" @ this time. But that is something outside the square of small investors. We shouldn't complain about that because a lot of us have been able to cash in big rewards in the last two years, right? :)

The manipulation that caused big losses for the majority of Lynas shareholders is done by a CEO that is still playing his typical banking tricks chasing the SP up and down by intransparantcy. Just imagine how easy it would have been to keep the sp in a much more reasonable range somewhere around 1 AUD. Instead the focus was put on exploding basket prices with no contract information causing the sp to act like a early stage explorer with a Mcap of almost 4 billion $ followed by a dramatic decline from 2,x to 0.8x.
No wonder people show up here that don't understand the very basics of valuation, comparing the price of a stock with 84m shares with LYC, still counting @ 1714m shares. :cautious:

Disclosure: I covered all my short position tonight. :cool:

@AB
having mentioned "testing the lows" twice within 24h sounds very much like you are looking for an entry ;)

regards
Julia
 
Agree. China seems to have no interest in prices falling "down to earth" @ this time. But that is something outside the square of small investors. We shouldn't complain about that because a lot of us have been able to cash in big rewards in the last two years, right? :)

The manipulation that caused big losses for the majority of Lynas shareholders is done by a CEO that is still playing his typical banking tricks chasing the SP up and down by intransparantcy. Just imagine how easy it would have been to keep the sp in a much more reasonable range somewhere around 1 AUD. Instead the focus was put on exploding basket prices with no contract information causing the sp to act like a early stage explorer with a Mcap of almost 4 billion $ followed by a dramatic decline from 2,x to 0.8x.
No wonder people show up here that don't understand the very basics of valuation, comparing the price of a stock with 84m shares with LYC, still counting @ 1714m shares. :cautious:

Disclosure: I covered all my short position tonight. :cool:

@AB
having mentioned "testing the lows" twice within 24h sounds very much like you are looking for an entry ;)

regards
Julia

who r u shorting with
 
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