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LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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Julia was on another forum downramping LYC as well
based on nothing really
however as it turns out she was right the SP has tanked
not because of Lynas or the board or the near to market production
but because of GFC2, the Euro, the EU and the downramping story on Moly from JP MORGAN
When Moly went over 100 bucks a share (after months of ramping from all in the USA including the US Senate (critical materials ) it was time for Morgan to tell the market it was over priced. SP then fell and JP re rated it as a buy. Understand of course that JP was the underwriter of Moly. It is possible that it was shorted (another favourite trick of JP) then buy back in and ramp again.

For those that bought in at 2 bucks buying in again now will average your loss
If NC is not telling fibs then all is on track and sold for 2012 - with more coming.
Also far up on the critical list of materials is NIOBIUM and Crown (owned by Lynas) has bucket loads of it. A VERY VERY valuable asset

2012 if you can hang in there will be a dooooooozy

I hope Julia can get the price down to 75 cents as I will be in boots and all
 
blackjack said:
A VERY VERY valuable asset
...
I hope Julia can get the price down to 75 cents as I will be in boots and all
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You have the wrong idea about investing in general IMO It's NOT about who is the best manipulator but who is right or wrong.

You forgot to mention one major reason for the drop: the delay of the LAMP. Where is your statement about the missing information about construction? Why no photos? Why fluff PRs instead of facts? "How can Curtis manipulate it down?" That' just the way to do it!

Lot's of explorers with VERY VERY valuable assets in the ground. Some can manage to dig it out and sell. The ones that fail are falling over economic down phases or more common: greed.
As for NC: Wasn't it smart to sell his shares well above 2$ early this year? He can double or triple his shares now. He's done that more than once BTW.

regards
Julia
 

Julia
show me one LYC statement that says the LAMP is delayed? Just one. If you cannot substantiate your statement then it is misleading and deceptive and action can be taken against you by ASIC. Particularly if you are a share holder with something to gain. You have been warned.
 
Rare earth prices have come off quite a bit also which has helped the down movement, how much further they will be allowed to fall is another great unkown overhanging Lynas at present.
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Rares will probably drop further if we head into a depression? I see no reason to buy LYC at the present time.
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The increase in prices of RE was always going to be a spike and contract, I think most of the people were expecting them to contract when supply started to come online from the likes of lynas/molycorp etc. Throwing a potential recession into the mix means RE could come down quite considerably. Unless there are supply shocks in the future I see no reason for lynas basket price to head anywhere near back up to $200.
 

I never said, LYC said the LAMP was delayed. There is NO direct statement yet. But it's quite obvious IMVHO. Indirectly they have confirmed the delay by NOT delivering a waste management plan in August (!) as promised and NOT updating any photo material on their website. If there are NO news, investors have to interpret the silence. How would you judge the failure to deliver the premiss for the pre operational license?

You were the one that said, the LAMP wasn't a political issue in Malaysia. Now look what is happening coming sunday:

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/10/05/lynas-plant-10000-to-protest-this-sunday/

Do you really think, the government will just ignore that movement?
I doubt it. If they don't ignore it, LYC investors are simply suffering from the disadvantages of the location that has been chosen which was one of NCs major mistakes IMO because he simply underestimated the hazards that can arise if you intend to build a plant like that in a highly populated area.

As stated before: the positive interpretation of recent developments are that news about the proceeds might be held back in order to let the "smart money" back in. The negative interpretation of course is: there is nothing to hold back..
 


Smart money appears to be having a great time with scared investors. Looks like someone has been accumulating - Mitsubishi.
That Toyota news just gets private investors to sell in the shake out, goes to show how helpful the media is. Probably released whilst the companies with need for REE's were buying.
There will now be less scared investors holding, hopefully enough to see a recovery. For the time being it would seem that the pro's are happy to keep building their holdings at around $1.

Good luck.
 

YOU specifically said "the delay of the LAMP"
PROVE it!!
the LYC 30th Sept 2011 release states otherwise
Like i said read ASIC notice (1) your statements are misleading and if we put your statements from here and from Hotccoper it becomes obvious what you are doing!!!
 
its hard to believe that MOLY and JP have lead the market by the nose through this notion that MOLY will save the the USA western world with its REE's.

I just love this post that puts Moly fair and square in the BS category

Jack Lifton October 5, 2011 at 12:09 am

Let me get this straight: in a solvent exchange (SX) plant not yet built, not yet proven in, or run up to capacity after the proving-in bugs are worked out, Molycorp is going to run process leach solution (PLS) from an ore concentrate that it has not yet determined can be produced, with an extraction efficiency that it has not yet determined to be economical – this additional HREE-containing PLS will be run simultaneously or on top of the PLS derived from the Mountain Pass bastnaesite concentrate – which has not yet been run in the new plant. All this in a year.

The assumption must be that since the old SX plant is creaking along at whatever level – it has been said to be between 1,800 and 5,000 tons of “oxides” per year – then a new one must be able to do its job at an even larger throughput volume and for whatever ore PLS comes along – if it’s running the same process.

This is complete and utter engineering and chemical nonsense.

Other than that – it’s a great story.
full link here http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2...e-of-molycorps-new-heavy-rare-earth-prospect/http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2011/10/is-this-the-site-of-molycorps-new-heavy-rare-earth-prospect/
 
drlog said:
Heh, good point - I guess I am trying to be rational. Sorry about that The good news is, there are some bargains around right now. LYC is one of them in my opinion.
Click to expand...
Indeed, I'd be happy to take .89 to 1.20 as a percentage gain - the 'smart' money has done well over the last 5 days. Volume is not terribly supportive of this mini trend however. An unbelievably volatile stock.
 
Logique said:
Indeed, I'd be happy to take .89 to 1.20 as a percentage gain - the 'smart' money has done well over the last 5 days. Volume is not terribly supportive of this mini trend however. An unbelievably volatile stock.
Click to expand...

Agree this one really volatile. closing today at Cross. But i though volume is actually ok.
 

That is indeed very interesting!
You are not answering any questions, no arguments, just ridiculous allegations towards those, who speak out, what is quite obvious to me: a delay of the LAMP.

QUESTION: are we here to argue or to manipulate?

I've named my arguments. You are welcome to name yours if you have any. :

____________

Any comments on Gerry Taylor becoming "Vice president of finance"

1979 regards
Julia
 

- your misleading and deceptive statements made against LYC will be reported to the ASIC
 
blackjack said:
- your misleading and deceptive statements made against LYC will be reported to the ASIC
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Only an epic douche would do so imo.

There is a clear lack of sufficient information in regards to the progress of the lamp by Lynas, particularly in light of the volatility of the market the past few months. Particularly in regard to the importance of the development of the project for Lynas. As an investor one would expect to have relatively up to date information on the project. The failure of Lynas to do this does leave room for questions to be asked imo, and is possibly a contribution to the volatility of the stock.
 
I support Julia who clearly is a superior investor and a courageous, intelligent blogger. Her posts are always a pleasure and education to read. Thanks Julia.
ps - check out valueinvestor.com - it requires signup which is free - and go to the 7 Apr 11 article on Molycorp by gwb. It makes the case for market oversupply of REEs in the next year or two.
 

you only need to see the blatant ramping by JP MORGAN on MOLY then when all the sheeple bought in they put out an announcement to say MOLY is overpriced - perfectly executed shorting of the market. Then when the over 100$ Moly went down JP then announces its fairly priced.

Moly at over 100 bucks and Lynas at 2 bucks - give me a break PLEEEEEEEASE

if you cant understand this logic then i am lost for words.

The LAMP is being built - poor old MOLY is using tailings from before - its years behind.

If you add in the EU and USA problems then you have the perfect storm for the shareprice of LYNAS being over sold.

I am happy guys as I am happily accumulating a stock thats at pole position and will win this race hands down
 
blackjack said:
Moly at over 100 bucks and Lynas at 2 bucks - give me a break PLEEEEEEEASE

if you cant understand this logic then i am lost for words.
Click to expand...

How about the fact that they have different number of shares on issue?

MCP 84m
LYC 1714m
 

While I don't particularly disagree with any of this, I still think LYC presents far far too much risk at the moment. I can see a set of events which will have this stock down much more, quite easily.

They really need to announce what is going on with the LAMP, until then I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. If it is delayed, then great - an opportunity to buy in / top up. But if it's something worse....
 
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