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LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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In a bull market shares are priced on fundamentals and optimism. Production will be on time without problems at full capacity and a good price.

In a bear market shares are priced on risks. REE price might fall another 25%, Chinese will flood the market again, construction might hit problems, production might be delayed, and no one can afford to buy iphones anymore when there's a depression.

With the change in sentiments and assumptions you can easily value something like LYC at $4 or $1... depends on how much you discount those risks and how much return you want.

You will often hear that 'the fundamentals haven't changed'. Take that statement with a grain of salt. The fundamentals were never set...

To manage your risk on a share like LYC you better buy at a price that is based on below average assumptions rather than at the optimistic end...

And keep in mind - LYC still has a market cap of $1.5B. And the collective market size of REE outside Chinese supply is...?
 
6figures said:
wow .. that is all..

glad i took a dive and pruchased at 0.870...
Click to expand...

Thought $1.20 needs to be re-visited before LYC heads north or south...

Just didn't think it was going to happen in one day!
 
I wonder if there'll be a speeding ticket from the ASX. That really would take the biscuit.
 
TabJockey said:
Harsh assault on this stock. Picked some up at 1.05, continues to fall. There is allot of risk priced into this thing!
Click to expand...

At the time you announced this trade I thought it was suicidal.
I know what I'd be doing today if I had made it.
 
notting said:
At the time you announced this trade I thought it was suicidal.
I know what I'd be doing today if I had made it.
Click to expand...

Yes I had a quick paper loss and I was resolved to hold the stock into production on deep value, but yesterday I got out at 15% profit. I still believe that the stock is very much over sold but I am not in the habit of turning my nose up at 15% in a day.

Probably not the type of market to "let your profits run" in IMO.
 

Same. Made my first ever trade on this stock yesterday. Made 10% and sold this morning. To volatile.
 
jonp said:
Should have sold yesterday...
Click to expand...

Things indeed look a little bumpy for Lynas these days.

FRAUD ALLEGATIONS / ASIC COMPLAINT
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-...tralian-company-of-fraud/3034900/?site=sydney

SHAREHOLDER ACTION AGAINST CEO
http://australianshareholders.com.a...eholder-inc&catid=39:news-and-media&Itemid=59

I wonder if CEO Curtis can be charged for compensation having sold most of his free shares before the whole mess started in Feb. ?

Most important, there is too little information about the progress in Malaysia. Wouldn't it be easy for Lynas management to show what is happening there by providing weekly updated photographs?

1979 regards
Julia

(still short with price targets of .75 and 0.48)
 
Julia1979 said:
(still short with price targets of .75 and 0.48)
Click to expand...

Julia, please note that here at ASF all posted price targets must include some elaboration in order to explain how you have arrived at those particular targets. We know other forums don't require this, but we do.

If you have offered an explanation earlier in the thread then please repost it for those who may have missed it. Otherwise, some additional detail would be appreciated.
 
Hi Joe,

Couldn't agree more with your request, hopefully our German friend will come back to the forum.

Please find attached a back of the envelope analysis of LYC. Fundamental support appeared to be at the upper level (horizontal in blue) of ~1.20/1.25. As you can see from the three year chart this has only recently been shot through to a potential support level with a double bottom potentiall forming at around $1. The fundamental underlying support that was established as LYC started significant work at Mt Weld is indeed at around 49/50c as Julia1979 has suggested. I can not see a technical reason for her mid price target, however the blue trading range does show a marked down trend in support, however it is worth noting that the uptick in volume indicates support at >$1 and potentially will form a new base. Hope this helps all potential investors. The fundamental downside risk is always $0 with single project, single resource companies, however LYC is a good chance of keeping above $0.49c IMO. It is also my opinion that Mt Weld is a wolrd class resource and the company is to be respected for progressing it, despite their current troubles.

View attachment file.bmp

Do your own research. I am not a financial adviser.
 
Good story from Bloomberg...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...toyota-develops-alternatives-commodities.html

Rare-earth prices are set to extend their decline from records this year as buyers including Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and General Electric Co. (GE) scale back using the materials in their cars and windmills
Click to expand...

 
Any reaction from this news today...?

5 Million Hours LTI Free Achieved at Lynas Advanced Materials Plant

Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) is pleased to announce a major milestone in achieving 5 million hours Lost Time Injury (“LTI”) free in the development and continuing construction of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in the Gebeng Industrial Estate, near Kuantan, Malaysia.
The Concentration Plant in Western Australia commenced feed of ore on 14 May 2011 and is performing well. First feed of concentrate at the LAMP is scheduled to be achieved in the fourth quarter of 2011. Lynas has received all required approvals to construct the LAMP, and is in the process of applying for all pre-operation and operation approvals.
 
6figures said:
in the process of applying for all pre-operation and operation approvals.
Click to expand...

Overall I think it is "good news" but not very price sensitive. Once the opperations have been approved, that will be very good news.

I guess this is one small step toward a final product.
 

Don Joe,
I welcome the ASF requirements as a major difference to other forums, especially Australia's main ramp up base.
0.75 is just a personal/psychological target on the way to the .48 region, that is quite obviously tech based (test of 2010 lows as a major support level).

Main question is of course, if the downtrend is going to continue or not. This will be answered by fundamentals. Apart from the things I've mentioned, Curtis seems to be manipulating it down (which tends to be a bullish sign). I have no other explanation for todays "fluff" PR while the market is waiting for something substantial.

Question to the board: has anyone spoken to the company about the rather old photo material on the Lynas website? The lack of information about the proceeds of the LAMP is either extremely careless or something to really worry about.

regards
Julia
 

how can Curtis manipulate it down?
is he a major share holder?
Is he busy buying now that its under a dollar?
Is he PO about Crown and now loading up with Lynas?
If so tell me so I can put a big hole in his hull as I have found some issues regarding Crown and the Company Constitution.
 
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