LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[skyQuake]

The article is not a ramp, its $29 by Oct 2010

The ADRs are 50:1, right now LYSCY is trading at around $23

That 30% upside prices it at 65c. LYC was trading around those levels a month ago!

 

[exgeo]

The US $29.00 price target is for the ADR's, not the aussie-listed shares (and it's Jim Jubak's pt, not mine). At a ratio of 50:1 (one ADR represents 50 LYC shares) that gives a price target of AU$ 0.62 per aussie share using USD/AUD rate of 93c, according to Mr. Jim.

 

[TheAbyss]

Perhaps LYC read the article after all. SP increase of 11% today on decent volume. No real reason why today for an 11% increase though that i can see. Any one have any suggestions?

 

[Zepplin]

I think its because they reported to the market that they had finished the share placement. All the shares were taken up. This removes the risk of not having sufficient finance to finish the project

 

[Miner]

Perhaps LYC read the article after all. SP increase of 11% today on decent volume. No real reason why today for an 11% increase though that i can see. Any one have any suggestions?

If I can punt then the production is to be restarted.
To fill up the balance space for 100 character restriction please see my earlier post on LYC and watch this space.

 

[ozrob]

LYC has been steadily increasing in price today and is currently at .595 and has been as high as .60
Anyone know what's behind this 9-10% increase.

 

[vincent191]

The capital rising is all done and those who are in it for a quick profit have mostly sold out and gone (hopefully). LYC had a road show in Hong Kong and it was a good presentation

More indications are showing that the demand for rare earth (REE) is exceeding supply. LYC is the richest (not largest) deposit of REE and is well underway to begin production in 12 to 18 months. It will be one of the few producers outside of China and buyers are already showing strong support.

Also it is forecasted that the price of REE will be going up and the USD may be over the worst in 12 to 18 months, it is all positive and at today's close of 60 cents it is cheap if things go according to plan. I repeat cheap if all go according to plan, DYOR and what is acceptable risk to me may not be your pound/kilo of REE.

 

[Miner]

The capital rising is all done and those who are in it for a quick profit have mostly sold out and gone (hopefully). LYC had a road show in Hong Kong and it was a good presentation

More indications are showing that the demand for rare earth (REE) is exceeding supply. LYC is the richest (not largest) deposit of REE and is well underway to begin production in 12 to 18 months. It will be one of the few producers outside of China and buyers are already showing strong support.

Also it is forecasted that the price of REE will be going up and the USD may be over the worst in 12 to 18 months, it is all positive and at today's close of 60 cents it is cheap if things go according to plan. I repeat cheap if all go according to plan, DYOR and what is acceptable risk to me may not be your pound/kilo of REE.

Hi Vincent

I am just curious how you drew the point that the production is 12 to 18 months away. Mt Weld was very much happening when they closed it. They got the money and if writing on the wall is right, with market drive (you were right to point the demand supply gap) LYC by any means, should be back to production much earlier than 12 months. This is how I see and surely LYC directors have more brains than me.

 

[gjnj1962]

Hi miner
re your couriosity of hi vincent comment on lyc to take 12-18m before finished product out of malaysia can be delivered i am more than courious, i am concerned,when i read lyc report that this could be the case and knowing they advised the market when they had aquired the necessary $ to restart they could re start swiftly,lyc also indicated recently( after they recieved $450m )they were reconsidering certain functions within the malaysian set up,whats this mean.
question, are they having thoughts about relocating to another site for the finishing plant namely AUSTRALIA after all they have pulled out before from a firm commitment...china, my concern is part of our attitude to the lyc sp is based on the fact we believe lyc will be 1st cab off the rank to supply the world market outside of china but if they start all over again to attempt to build another finishing plant this can give some of lyc compeditors a better chance to be 1st cab.nick curtis said 5-10 years from discovery to finish product, that was the past if the us gov sees the urgency to produce the product quicker it certainly can be done,much quicker ,did you read jack liftons report oct 15th 09''rare earth crisis 2009''part 1 page 5 quote:aust gov is now questioning the business model of lyc'' un quote asking why not have complete production in aussie!!!I hold lyc stock and have been buying& selling it since 2005.

 

[Miner]

Hi miner
re your couriosity of hi vincent comment on lyc to take 12-18m before finished product out of malaysia can be delivered i am more than courious, i am concerned,when i read lyc report that this could be the case and knowing they advised the market when they had aquired the necessary $ to restart they could re start swiftly,lyc also indicated recently( after they recieved $450m )they were reconsidering certain functions within the malaysian set up,whats this mean.
question, are they having thoughts about relocating to another site for the finishing plant namely AUSTRALIA after all they have pulled out before from a firm commitment...china, my concern is part of our attitude to the lyc sp is based on the fact we believe lyc will be 1st cab off the rank to supply the world market outside of china but if they start all over again to attempt to build another finishing plant this can give some of lyc compeditors a better chance to be 1st cab.nick curtis said 5-10 years from discovery to finish product, that was the past if the us gov sees the urgency to produce the product quicker it certainly can be done,much quicker ,did you read jack liftons report oct 15th 09''rare earth crisis 2009''part 1 page 5 quote:aust gov is now questioning the business model of lyc'' un quote asking why not have complete production in aussie!!!I hold lyc stock and have been buying& selling it since 2005.

Dear gjnj1962

I saw my name in your post.

I am unsure if you have asked me any question or some one.

Please consider to repeat the message with due justice for paragraphs, formats, full stop and commas. I just could not read it.

It helps to read your message and get the the communication right.

No offence but please let us enjoy your post too.

Regards

 

[vincent191]

Hi Vincent

I am just curious how you drew the point that the production is 12 to 18 months away. Mt Weld was very much happening when they closed it. They got the money and if writing on the wall is right, with market drive (you were right to point the demand supply gap) LYC by any means, should be back to production much earlier than 12 months. This is how I see and surely LYC directors have more brains than me.

I got the timetable for production from LYC's presenation when they announced the China deal. I listen to it against and right at the end the target date for production was end of 2010.

Please look at their latest Hong Kong presentation and judge for yourself. It is a huge project and they have only done the site work, piling & foundations. They have also ordered all the machines that require a long lead time. Production in 12 to 18 minths is a very agressive target.

For any new entrants from final approval to production requires between 4 to 5 years (Mineweb). Thus LYC has a headstart amongst new REE producers outside of China.

I think you might have mistaken the mounds of ore they have dug up in Mt Weld. LYC still have to finish building and fitout the concentrate plant in Mt Weld and then ship it to the vastly unfinished plant in Malaysia for final processing before they have a marketable product.

The global recovery has only just started and I think the price of REE will start to peak in 12 to 18 months and therefore I think the LYC timing is almost perfect.

 

[Miner]

I got the timetable for production from LYC's presenation when they announced the China deal. I listen to it against and right at the end the target date for production was end of 2010.

Please look at their latest Hong Kong presentation and judge for yourself. It is a huge project and they have only done the site work, piling & foundations. They have also ordered all the machines that require a long lead time. Production in 12 to 18 minths is a very agressive target.

For any new entrants from final approval to production requires between 4 to 5 years (Mineweb). Thus LYC has a headstart amongst new REE producers outside of China.

I think you might have mistaken the mounds of ore they have dug up in Mt Weld. LYC still have to finish building and fitout the concentrate plant in Mt Weld and then ship it to the vastly unfinished plant in Malaysia for final processing before they have a marketable product.

The global recovery has only just started and I think the price of REE will start to peak in 12 to 18 months and therefore I think the LYC timing is almost perfect.

OK Vincent

Thanks

I am taking your point and looks more reasonable.

It looks I was a bit mixed up and thanks again

 

[gjnj1962]

hi miner.
that was my 1st real go and boy did i botch it,thank you for your courteous words.when you hit 72 you go a bit gar gar at times 18 months ago i could not spell komputa now i got one!!!now back to business, my current concern is lyc having sufficient funds for a couple of weeks now to finance completion of the malaysian plant, have not yet advised the market when they intend to re continue the completion.if they decide to relocate elswhere to build their finishing plant,(as they did with china) then the time taken to get the finshed product to market will be delayed further,at the moment lyc look like being first cab off the rank to supply outside of china,being a stock holder this is very comforting news and adds good security to the sp.but there are other reo mining co who could also be a threat as to who will be the 1st cab.the U.S. could do it if they have the need to. i wont go into the U.S. details but it is related to their protection of the security of their national defence and to the yanks that is priority one.if lyc advise they intend to contiue with malaysia then most of this post was a waste, but if they dont then we have a new ball game as far as the depth of security of our sp go.must go its almost 1 am no more discos for me i just sit in front of my komputa!

 

[oldblue]

Nice update from LYC with all the ducks coming onto line.

Capital raised; construction progress at Mt Weld and in Malaysia; sales contracts extended.

But production is still at least 12 months away and a lot can happen in that time. Based on what we know at this stage and conservative product prices, does anyone have a line on just how profitable this company will be once Stage 1 is up and running?

Vincent?

Anyone?

 

[exgeo]

Patersons Securities does. They cover the stock and the report is available on the Lynas website...........................

 

[oldblue]

Patersons Securities does. They cover the stock and the report is available on the Lynas website...........................

Thanks, exgeo.

That's the last place I'd think to look.



Must bear in mind that Patersons is the house broker, of course.

 

[vincent191]

Nice update from LYC with all the ducks coming onto line.

Capital raised; construction progress at Mt Weld and in Malaysia; sales contracts extended.

But production is still at least 12 months away and a lot can happen in that time. Based on what we know at this stage and conservative product prices, does anyone have a line on just how profitable this company will be once Stage 1 is up and running?

That is a $64 question. It depends on the market price of REE. LYC's pre-sale contracts does not lock in a price. Therefore if REE prices go up LYC will get the benefits. How profitable will depend on the selling price at the time and how cost efficient LYC is.

All current indications are the demand for REE exceeds supply and expectations are for prices to go up and LYC is expecting to sell whatever they can produce.

So everything is looking good but nothing is 100% until the cash is in the bank.

 

[Miner]

That is a $64 question. It depends on the market price of REE. LYC's pre-sale contracts does not lock in a price. Therefore if REE prices go up LYC will get the benefits. How profitable will depend on the selling price at the time and how cost efficient LYC is.

All current indications are the demand for REE exceeds supply and expectations are for prices to go up and LYC is expecting to sell whatever they can produce.

So everything is looking good but nothing is 100% until the cash is in the bank.

I am wondering if the production is 12 months away why are they filling up positions to be effective from March 10 ? All are operational roles including maintenance manager

DNH

 

[vincent191]

There ain't too many RRE plants outside of China, so I guess some of the skills are not easy to find. It sounds to me that it is a good move to engage a Maintenance manager during the construction and commissioning phase. The person may have some input in the process afterall he will be running the machines when it goes into production. Kind of on the job training.

I hear car mechanics go to the manufacturing plants for training before they commence repairing cars at a latter stage. Maybe this is something similar.

 

[Wysiwyg]

I have read two reports over the last week about China reducing rare earth exports and a forecast that most of the product will be for Chinese use. The other interesting factor to me is the greater use of rare earths in modern time. Lynas boast the world's richest rare earth element resource.

A story on Rare Earths

Western mines re-open for business

China actually has only 53 percent of world supplies within its borders. In the West, overproduction and low prices in the 1990s caused most mines to close. The recent increase in demand has overturned that situation. A kilo of neodymium goes for 22 dollars now, five times as much as in 2002. Dysprosium's value is ten times what it was in 2002.

Arufura is the only other company I found that look close to actually producing in 2012.