Looking at predictions in hindsight

[nth brisbanite]

Found one today:



http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...es-to-reach-99-in-a-year-20150212-13cjqr.html

CBA closed at $91.18 today.

There are now predictions that share price for CBA is going to very soon go above $100. Can't remember source.

 

[Tyler Durden]

Sydney house prices will rise 20 per cent over the next two years, pushing the median house price well above $1 million by June 2017

I guess anyone hoping for a crash would like to hear this, since crashes happen when people don't expect it.

 

[Bintang]

I guess anyone hoping for a crash would like to hear this, since crashes happen when people don't expect it.

This one will certainly be interesting to watch.
The thread has quite a good list now of some 'bold' predictions with fairly clear time frames.
But can we keep track of them?
Is there some better way of organising them on this forum so they don't get lost as the thread slows down and drifts to the bottom of the thread pile?

 

[Tyler Durden]

This one will certainly be interesting to watch.
The thread has quite a good list now of some 'bold' predictions with fairly clear time frames.
But can we keep track of them?
Is there some better way of organising them on this forum so they don't get lost as the thread slows down and drifts to the bottom of the thread pile?

lol don't worry, this thread is on the top of my 'watch' list

 

[Tyler Durden]

50% chance of a recession by 2017:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...17-top-bond-manager-says-20150325-1m76db.html

Not much of a 'bold' prediction...I mean, I can say there's 50% chance of anything happening.

 

[So_Cynical]

Not so much a prediction as a great call form Bell Directs Julia Lee.

Shares are looking cheap! - 03 April 2009

Today I'll run through where the bargains in the market are at the moment and why this is being called the shopping spree of a lifetime.

Picking the bottom – does it really matter?

The truth is that the market is cheap.
-
Opportunity of a lifetime
The reason that this is being called the opportunity of a lifetime is because we haven't seen an opportunity like this in almost 30 years and we may have to wait another 30 to see another opportunity quite like it.

The bottom line
So there it is: the market is looking cheaper than it has in about 30 years. I'm more comfortable investing now then I was a couple of years ago.

Remember, keeping a business mind when the market seems illogical can be great for your bottom line!

This was like 2 weeks after the market bottom...shes very upbeat, and using my favorite word - Comfortable.

https://www.belldirect.com.au/shareschool/articles/1112/cheap.html

 

[sptrawler]

Not so much a prediction as a great call form Bell Directs Julia Lee.



This was like 2 weeks after the market bottom...shes very upbeat, and using my favorite word - Comfortable.

https://www.belldirect.com.au/shareschool/articles/1112/cheap.html

So what are you saying, that was a 2009 post, are you pushing her product? or what?

 

[Craton]

Not so much a prediction as a great call form Bell Directs Julia Lee.



This was like 2 weeks after the market bottom...shes very upbeat, and using my favorite word - Comfortable.

https://www.belldirect.com.au/shareschool/articles/1112/cheap.html

So what are you saying, that was a 2009 post, are you pushing her product? or what?

Is there any reason for the barb SP?
The title of this thread is "Looking a predictions in hindsight". Simples.

 

[Bintang]

Only 2 weeks to wait for this one
James Turk on King World News. (will any of KWN’s doomer predictions ever come true?)

Greece To Default Before April 14, Sending Shockwaves Around The World!
If Greece can’t pay, it would be a default, which in turn will trigger acceleration clauses in Greece’s other debt obligations that would require immediate repayment of those debts too. That is when Greece blows up and sends shockwaves around the globe, which will particularly rock the ECB as well as with the remaining depositors in Greek banks. But I think Greece will actually blow up before April 14th.

 

[sptrawler]

Is there any reason for the barb SP?
The title of this thread is "Looking a predictions in hindsight". Simples.

Appologies, I get it now.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Van Tharp and his "secular bear market". Comment posted this year about his year 2000 bear market belief. After reading his book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom in 2009 I admit I believed this guy for awhile that it was a secular bear market. I believe his "definition" is B.S.

Are We Still in A Secular Bear Market?

by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

View on-line to resolve formatting problems

Those of you who have been following my Tharp’s Thoughts newsletter since 2000 know that I said we entered into a secular bear market in that year. I have never said that we were out of it. My definition of a Secular Bear Market is the same as that of Ed Easterling (Crestmont Research) meaning a period of falling PE ratios.

 

[Bintang]

Only 2 weeks to wait for this one
James Turk on King World News. (will any of KWN’s doomer predictions ever come true?)

Greece To Default Before April 14, Sending Shockwaves Around The World!
If Greece can’t pay, it would be a default, which in turn will trigger acceleration clauses in Greece’s other debt obligations that would require immediate repayment of those debts too. That is when Greece blows up and sends shockwaves around the globe, which will particularly rock the ECB as well as with the remaining depositors in Greek banks. But I think Greece will actually blow up before April 14th.

The date was very specific on this one so I guess we can call it a FAIL.

 

[Tyler Durden]

The date was very specific on this one so I guess we can call it a FAIL.

lol yes, the specific nomination of an exact date may have undone the author, but it seems Greece is now worrying some people (or at least, making it into the news):

US stocks have tumbled on fresh worries about a Greek debt default as US President Barack Obama called on Greece to enact reforms.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 279.47 points (1.54 per cent) to 17,826.30 on Friday.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell 23.81 (1.13 per cent) to 2,081.18, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 75.98 (1.52 per cent) to 4,931.81

Obama said that debt-wracked Greece needs to take action to bring stability to its shaky finances. Uncertainty about Greece has hung over the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings this week.

"Greece needs to initiate reforms," Obama said at a joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi at the White House.

"They have to collect taxes. They have to reduce their bureaucracy, (institute) more flexible labour practices."

European stocks also fell sharply amid Greece concerns, with Germany's DAX 30 index tumbling 2.58 per cent and France's CAC 40 in Paris slumping 1.55 per cent.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/us-stocks-tumble-on-greece-fears-20150417-1mns7c.html

Wonder why I didn't read about the 14 April date in the news?

 

[Tyler Durden]

The best forecaster of the Australian dollar isn't swayed by the recent surge in the currency, predicting it will fall back below US70 ¢ by year-end.

For Konrad Bialas, a foreign-exchange strategist in Warsaw at TMS Brokers, the bulk of the Aussie's depreciation is behind it after the currency dropped 20 per cent in the 12 months through September and touched a six-year low of US68.96 ¢ on September 7. Don't expect a rally though, according to Bialas, who estimates it will end this year at US69 ¢, 6 per cent lower than its close in New York on Friday. The currency will recover to US71 ¢ in the final quarter of 2016, he predicts.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...nk-below-us70-by-yearend-20151011-gk6kqj.html