Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

$1.00 TO $1.49 IN two trading days...You have to wonder whether the bell is well and truly being rung.:)


Now as high as $1.74. Looks like the market really liked the ann after cob last friday, although it opened only slightly higher.:)
 
From a intraday low of .975 last Wednesday to a high of 1.79 today. An increase of more than 83.6%.

I hope somebody got onto it.

Only if I had some spare cash in the bank :confused:
 
Now retracing somewhat to about $1.60, may even go lower. But it has demonstrated what it can do and lower prices could be a chance to top up again.
 
Couldn't you attribute today spike as shorter covering?

Though to be positive I'd like to think its the end of the down trend and atleast buying the rumour on the Chinese deal going through in the next couple of weeks.

Dunno what will come after that though.:confused:
 
Though to be positive I'd like to think its the end of the down trend and at least buying the rumour on the Chinese deal going through in the next couple of weeks.

Dunno what will come after that though.

If the Chinese deal came through with anything over $800m in the present economic climate LINC and its shareholders would have to be laughing.

I believe $800m plus (let alone the hoped for $1.5 billion) would totally fund one coal to diesel plant and at the very least add $2.00 a share to the bottom line. And oil cannot stay as low as it is for much longer. OPEC and shrinking oil fields will take care of that.:2twocents
 
RIGHT - WHERE IS THE LEAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LNC has been trading sideways to down for the last 3 weeks or so (mostly down...)

Today, with high volume, the SP tanks by 15%. Whats going on you ask??

Well, PB & co have leaked their announcement to the market AGAIN. (announced when market closed that Teresa sale SHOULD happen in the next 2-3 weeks)

COuld this be a result of insider trading? Who knows but I am just trying to indicate that it can occur on a significant fall or rise...
 
COuld this be a result of insider trading? Who knows but I am just trying to indicate that it can occur on a significant fall or rise...

Well,it is funny, at the beginning this stock never leaked anything before announcements. Now, it seems, there is always a busted pipe before announcements.:D
 
For the record, LNC finished up 46.5c to $1.69 today.

I tried to buy some more last Thursday, and put in an order before the market opened for $1.06, but in the 10 mins before the market opened the price jumped from $1.06 to $1.15 and I missed out.

However, I am still happy to see the price jump rapidly.
 
Congratulations Mexican, on leading the March Tipping Competition.

A good announcement before the end of the month (highly likely) should see you collect the bikkies.
 
I think some people are being ureasonable with their thoughts about Linc leaking information. The trading ahead of the news on the 4th and 6th certainly doesn't suggest any unusual trading. To me at least. I would be interested to know what others saw that I didn't.

Lets not underestimate the power of uncertainty. Linc have provided the market with 3 significant updates in the space of 1 week which will have gone a long way to easing much of the uncertainty regarding Chinchilla, UCG and to a lesser extent, Teresa.

Queensland also has an election later in the month and it looks like the Libs could sneak over the line. Currently they are ahead 51% to 49%. If the Libs do win we may see a reversal of fortune for the nearer term fortunes of UCG in Queensland. Just a thought.

But overall it is business as usual at Linc and thats worth every cent of the gain we have seen in the past few days.
 
Hi Select,

I was commenting on the specific volume increase, and large share price movements 24 hours before announcements. Announcement about March 23 date for Teresa sale as an example - the stock had been trading flat to down on thin volumes for 2 weeks, and all of a sudden the stock surges on high volume within hours of the announcement.
Suggests a leak in the company to me (someone is trading these announcements before they are announced to ASX)

Cheers.
 
Re: BBY valuation in December

I have just re-read this valuation (as I do every month or so to refresh my memory) and would just like to comment on this. We have all been very caught up in the SP decline of late, and the Teresa sale (which is very important by the way...)

At AUD $90 per bbl (VERY close to what oil is trading for now) BBY value LNC at $14 per share. This is with ONE 20000 bbl/day facility operating. Total upfront cost required - $900million odd.

Hopefully, funding for this will come from teresa/pentland sales.

Therefore, if LNC can come up with 1.8billion (Teresa/pentland sales, plus a few hundred million from other tenement sales??, possibly borrowings??), they could build 2. Theoretical BBY value = approx $28 per share.

This does not include that LINC diesel retails for $10-$15 higher than oil price.

If many of you believe (as I do,) that oil price will probably be closer to AUD$270 a barrel in 2 years time, BBY value based on two 20000 facilities is $84 per share.

Don't forget - currently LINC COULD build 5 facilities in SA, 1 in QLD, perhaps 4 in the USA based on their current tenements- if only it was easy to come up with the $9 billion upfront capital needed.

Based on only building two facilities in the next 5 years, and a higher oil price - I would be happy with $84 bucks a share.

This just puts some perspective on the Teresa sale/SP decline of the past few months.

THINK LONG TERM!!!!

Discl - I hold LNC.
 
Hi Select,

I was commenting on the specific volume increase, and large share price movements 24 hours before announcements. Announcement about March 23 date for Teresa sale as an example - the stock had been trading flat to down on thin volumes for 2 weeks, and all of a sudden the stock surges on high volume within hours of the announcement.
Suggests a leak in the company to me (someone is trading these announcements before they are announced to ASX)

Cheers.

Hi Glads,

Linc announced the Teresa sale update at 4.20pm on March 4. On this day, Linc closed DOWN 14c to $1 on volume of 1.2 million.

On March 5, Linc closed UP 23c to $1.23 on volume of 1.5 million.

They then announced a company update at 5.22pm on March 6. On this day, Linc closed DOWN 0.5c to $1.225 on volume of 780,000.

On March 9, Linc closed UP 46.5c on volume of 3.1 million.

I have no doubt that someone always knows something with all stocks on the market but Linc looks pretty tight to me.

I'm not having a crack at anybody in particular, just the notion that Linc leaks.
 
Re: BBY valuation in December

At AUD $90 per bbl (VERY close to what oil is trading for now) BBY value LNC at $14 per share. This is with ONE 20000 bbl/day facility operating. Total upfront cost required - $900million odd.

Hopefully, funding for this will come from teresa/pentland sales.

Therefore, if LNC can come up with 1.8billion (Teresa/pentland sales, plus a few hundred million from other tenement sales??, possibly borrowings??), they could build 2. Theoretical BBY value = approx $28 per share.

This does not include that LINC diesel retails for $10-$15 higher than oil price.

If many of you believe (as I do,) that oil price will probably be closer to AUD$270 a barrel in 2 years time, BBY value based on two 20000 facilities is $84 per share.

While it is very difficult to predict the oil price in AUD in 2 year's time, I don't think many of us are considering AUD 270 to be within our price range.

Currently, with AUD/USD rate at .64 and oil at approx USD 45, that equates to AUD 70.31.

BBY in their Dec 08 valuation used an exchange rate of .80. Given the current rate of .64, a range of .65 to .80 for 2011 would seem reasonable.

BBY also uses an oil price per barrel of USD 75. Given last year's peak price of USD 147 approx and the current price of USD 45, a range of USD 65 to USD 130 would also seem reasonable.

Therefore, we have the following ranges of AUD price per barrel of oil (ignoring the premium for LINC'S diesel)-

Exchange Rate--- USD price per b --- AUD price per b

.65------- ------------- 65 ------ ------------ 100
.80------- -------------- 65 ------ ------------- 81.25
.65 ------ ------------- 130 ------ ------------- 200
.80 ----- ------------- 130 ------ ------------- 162.5

So, in my view, we have a range of AUD 81.25 to 200.

Within this range LNC will still have a very profitable operation.

As previously stated, I will be a long term holder of the stock.
 
Congratulations Mexican, on leading the March Tipping Competition.

A good announcement before the end of the month (highly likely) should see you collect the bikkies.

Yes it is looking good. Noticed Grace left Linc out this month, so I could finally get in. Thanks Grace!;)
Don't forget guy's, Linc has a very bright future overseas. The US and China should be the big ones you would think.
 
Pretty huge end to the day for LNC. Up 15% overall with most of it seeming to come in the last hour of the day, again! Any ideas why?
 
LNC went up:
Every one got out of Gold????
Looks like every thing is run by mad punters.The boss of Citi bank announced profits were up so the Dow shoots up 30%...toss a coin and decide.
 
Originally posted by GOHAWKS

Pretty huge end to the day for LNC. Up 15% overall with most of it seeming to come in the last hour of the day, again! Any ideas why?

Might be due to an announcement just around the corner with LINC notifying the market of the sale of their Teresa Coal Tenements for $800 million PLUS.

Might be accumulation by wise investors

Might be because it was absolutely hammered and oversold in the last few months.

Might be because their technology, once oil is back above $80 per barrel in twelve months or so and they have GTL plants in the US and Sth Aust just for starters will make their shareholders substantial profits.

And then maybe Wall Street will drop 170 points overnight and LNC will retreat 10%:confused:

Rather bullish end to the days trading though and would predict a solid start for LNC tomorrow!
 
Hey do any of you get the Daily Reckoning newsletter. In yesterday's edition there was this brief excerpt regarding the pocket change punts report:

130 meters beneath the surface of Chinchilla, west of Brisbane, hides a "dirty" secret that could shape Australia's energy future and make a few early punters like you very rich, very quick...

Deep underground, one small firm - 'unofficially' sanctioned by the Australian government - has discovered a way to turn Australia's abundant, dirty coal reserves into 100% usable diesel fuel!

It gets better: this 'coal diesel' is 40% cleaner than regular diesel - with less carbon, sulphur, mercury and particulate emissions... 10% lighter than conventional diesel - meaning better efficiency and cheaper transport costs... can be used in standard diesel cars, trucks and even planes with no modification required... and costs just US$24 per barrel to produce - less than a quarter of the cost of an unrefined barrel of crude oil!

And better still: this small Aussie belter of a firm has already perfected this process... they're about to bring over 20,000 barrels a day of this revolutionary new fuel to market!

The Surat Basin News reported in March this year that this "will soon reverberate in the energy markets of the world." The Australian says it's: "a project that could dramatically change Australia's energy future." The Brisbane Times said it could help to: "generate up to $600 million for the Queensland economy each year."

At just $2.45 this firm's share price looks CRIMINALLY undervalued at the moment... but it presents you with a once-in-a-lifetime chance to jump in on the ground floor before someone breaks the story!

This sounds like Linc energy to me when it was trading around that range 3 months ago.

What do you think?
 
Hey do any of you get the Daily Reckoning newsletter. In yesterday's edition there was this brief excerpt regarding the pocket change punts report:



This sounds like Linc energy to me when it was trading around that range 3 months ago.

What do you think?

Yes I do read the Daily Reckoning. They have been pushing linc for at least a year I think.:) A quick google and you can work out them and Fat Prophets quite easily. So I wonder why they keep putting it there.:confused:
 
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