LNC - Linc Energy

[light]

A huge drop for LNC today

It has just fallen to $0.975 earlier, and it's currently trading at $1.00 (11:57am Sydney time)

Looks like the market is becoming more and more impatient amid the current financial crisis...

 

[gohawks]

Jeeze Linc absolutely hammered today, dropping below $1 and bouncing around that mark. Not looking good for any of us holding them at present.


Just noticed your post above light we almost posted that one simultaneously.

 

[light]

Yeah gohawks, and I am sure we both feel the same way about the drop in price today

But I think I will continue to hold for the long term (hope my decision is right.. otherwise my wife will probably give me some hard time ).

 

[basilio]

Doesn't look good does it? But what has actually changed in a day or a week? The market and most of the forum members have discounted the immediate Teresa sale, we know the current economy is RS.

LINC is financially stable (at least for the next 12 months) and is proving technology to address a certain critical problem - shortages of oil based products. Does the phrase "a great buying opportunity" ring a bell?

(Trouble is I have had ringing in my ears since about $2.80)

 

[Glen48]

Close shift the decimal point to .28 and buy. One day the World is going to need Fuel but like the Gold prices not for awhile it seems.

 

[glads262]

RIGHT - WHERE IS THE LEAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LNC has been trading sideways to down for the last 3 weeks or so (mostly down...)

Today, with high volume, the SP tanks by 15%. Whats going on you ask??

Well, PB & co have leaked their announcement to the market AGAIN. (announced when market closed that Teresa sale SHOULD happen in the next 2-3 weeks)

Now that that is out of my system...

It seems that the language in the announcement has changed tack again. Not sure what message PB is trying to put out there. First they say the chinese are buying, then there are a whole host of delays (whilst $30-40 billion changes hands elsewhere) then, they are looking at a large range of buyers, now its only the chinese again - with meetings being held left right and centre.

Positive?? the meetings are at a critical juncture. I guess this basically means, yes they want it - but they are squeezing every bit of price out of LNC that they can. they know they are desparate to sell!!

 

[Mickel]

Positive?? the meetings are at a critical juncture. I guess this basically means, yes they want it - but they are squeezing every bit of price out of LNC that they can. they know they are desparate to sell!!

Agree generally with your comment, Glads.

On a positive note, Linc has stated that they will again report to the market, at the latest, on 23 Mar. This will eliminate the uncertainty that has prevailed since the end of February.

It will be interesting to see if there was much short selling today. I suspect there was.

I also agree with a previous post that it is an excellent buying opportunity.

I continue to hold.

 

[Mickel]

LNC has a good kick along today- currently up $0.215 to $1.215 with a high of $1.245.

No listing yet of yesterday's short selling details.

 

[Nero64]

Go Linc!

Unfortunatlely it has to go up another $1 for me to get my money back.

Only a takeover would give it such a lift in this environment.

I want to ask members out there.

I bought Linc at low $2 mark. If it did get up there in the next 6 months would you sell and hope it dropped to a lower level or would you hold for the long term and do dollar cost averaging.

Personally I would get out and put it in a blue chip. Maybe revisit it in the future.

To be honest it wasn't such a good buy. I bought it back on Nov 24th when the market just rallied the day before with BHP lifting the market. LNC bounced 30-40c and I was in $500-600 profit. It even got up to 2.79 one day in a spike before reversing. Then of course it fell so quickly I didn't even have time to set a break even stop loss.

Alas poor Yorick!

 

[Glen48]

From what I see any time there is some sort of profit take because you can bet in a few hours it will be GORN.

 

[Goldmann]

I think most people are in this for the long term.. see the potential... not surprised they have been hammered considering the major jump on them was potential based... typical sell the fact when they proved thier process works...

then all attention has been on the coal sale... i still think PBOND called it pretty early in publicising it... but i spose the signing of the heads of agreement forced him into releasing news to the market... the credit crisis happened at the wrong time for that one... gee it goes through a year ago and its happy days!!! LNC with more money in the bank that market cap haha

anyone see the release from the broker that valued LNC at around $25 on their coal tenements alone...

http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/738620/Merriman Curhan Ford Report - March 4 2009.pdf

 

[Mickel]

Go Linc!

Unfortunatlely it has to go up another $1 for me to get my money back.

Only a takeover would give it such a lift in this environment.

I want to ask members out there.

I bought Linc at low $2 mark. If it did get up there in the next 6 months would you sell and hope it dropped to a lower level or would you hold for the long term and do dollar cost averaging.

Personally I would get out and put it in a blue chip. Maybe revisit it in the future.

To be honest it wasn't such a good buy. I bought it back on Nov 24th when the market just rallied the day before with BHP lifting the market. LNC bounced 30-40c and I was in $500-600 profit. It even got up to 2.79 one day in a spike before reversing. Then of course it fell so quickly I didn't even have time to set a break even stop loss.

Alas poor Yorick!

When and if LNC announces a confirmed sale of "Teresa" for any amount above $800m the share price should jump to at least $3 IMHO.

Apart from the value of approx $2 per share, more importantly, it will give LNC the funds to build its first 20,000 bopd GTL plant with an ability to earn approx $600m profit per year when fully operational.

In 3-5 years LNC could well be a "blue chip". I will not be selling.

Nero, make sure you know Linc. I sense a different outcome to that of Yorick.

LNC finished up $0.23 to $1.23 today. Oil price rise would account for some of that IMO.

 

[Mickel]

I think most people are in this for the long term.. see the potential... not surprised they have been hammered considering the major jump on them was potential based... typical sell the fact when they proved thier process works...

then all attention has been on the coal sale... i still think PBOND called it pretty early in publicising it... but i spose the signing of the heads of agreement forced him into releasing news to the market... the credit crisis happened at the wrong time for that one... gee it goes through a year ago and its happy days!!! LNC with more money in the bank that market cap haha

anyone see the release from the broker that valued LNC at around $25 on their coal tenements alone...

http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/738620/Merriman Curhan Ford Report - March 4 2009.pdf

Goldmann, The valuation -

"MERRIMAN CURHAN FORD
March 4, 2009 6
Next-Generation Energy
Linc Energy Ltd. (LNCGY) Buy
Valuation Commentary
At this time we are switching our valuation over to be more fully based on the assets from our previous
method of using a sum of the parts with a DCF for liquid fuel sales, and looking at the sale value of the
Theresa coal tenements. We think this is prudent given tightening margins on liquid fuels production (driven
by weak oil pricing), and the more limited value assigned to out-year revenues in this market. We strongly
believe in the fundamental story of liquid fuels production leveraging UCG, and believe oil will eventually re
bound, making the $28 per barrel cost small relative to the sale price, but for now, we feel it is prudent to
focus on the assets which are real and tangible today.
We are valuing Linc shares based on its proven assets and our estimates of the value of the underlying coal
reserves to prospective buyers. We value the Theresa tenements as noted earlier in this report and have assigned
a conservative value to the company’s coal assets, which we believe are immediately mineable, arriving
at our price target of $26.50-30.50.
Today we are valuing the company based upon only a small portion of its coal assets (announce resources in
Emerald, Chinchilla, Pentland, and Arckaringa Basin) and are leaving the underlying value in its synthetic
fuels production as future upside. In addition, although it remains very promising, we have yet to incorporate
any potential value from U.S. or other international agreements/operations. Given the small fraction of the
total coal tenements we have included in this valuation, we believe there is significant opportunity for additional
upside, not withstanding a range of other opportunities the company is pursuing.
We are transitioning coverage of LNCGY shares with a Buy rating."

is from a US analyst and is in USD for LNCGY which is equivalent of 10 LNC shares.

So USD 26.50 @.64 = AUD41.40 = $4.14 per LNC share
USD 30.50 @ .64= AUD47.66 = $4.76 per LNC share

which is still up to 400% of today's closing price.

As previously stated- A great buying opportunity.

 

[Smurf1976]

So does this mean that LNC may have LNG as well?????
What a shock this may be.
Suppose BG isn't offering all this money to companies in the area for no reason.

LNG is simply natural gas (either coal seam gas or natural gas from conventional gas fields) processed to become a liquid, thus making international transport more practical.

So any company that has natural gas can produce LNG. The economics however require that the gas resource is large enough to sustain a decent sized plant since, as with most things, small scale would mean a higher cost per unit of production.

Alternatives to producing LNG are either sell the gas as is into a pipeline network or directly to some large end user (factory, power station etc). Or alternatively, build a gas-fired power station on site and sell electricity into the grid or to a large end user (a mine, for example).

Whether it is most profitable to sell it as gas, LNG or electricity will depend on the scale and location of the resource and its proximity to existing gas pipelines, electricity transmission lines, the coast (for an LNG plant) or a large gas / electricity user. Which is the way to go is very site specific.

If you found gas near another company's gas reserves then you'd likely come to some arrangement with them and end up putting it to the same use as the other company is doing. For example, you could have several companies all with modest gas reserves building a single LNG plant to process the whole lot, thus achieving scale of economy benefits for all involved.

 

[ColB]

Originally posted by Basillio

Doesn't look good does it? But what has actually changed in a day or a week? The market and most of the forum members have discounted the immediate Teresa sale, we know the current economy is RS.

LINC is financially stable (at least for the next 12 months) and is proving technology to address a certain critical problem - shortages of oil based products. Does the phrase "a great buying opportunity" ring a bell?

(Trouble is I have had ringing in my ears since about $2.80)

I share your pain Baz but like you I am in for the long haul. I sold a third of my position in the high $4's but still hold a large parcel which is worth well under half what I paid.

It's not only the Teresa sale that will propel the price forward from its extreme low at the moment.

I saw this article today which is also promising for LNC's recent GasTech Wyoming purchase.

Indiana has promising sites for underground coal ‘gasification’ plants

By Emil Venere, Purdue University News Service - Posted March 4, 2009

"...A pilot plant is planned in Wyoming, with Australia-based Linc Energy Ltd. expected to break ground in the fourth quarter of 2009. The company aims to produce a minimum of 40,000 barrels per day of diesel and jet fuel from its initial commercial operations..."

For full article refer:

http://www.lafayette-online.com/bus...romising-sites-underground-coal-gasification/

 

[mexican]

Good to see some of you being positive again!
PB was getting a flogging there for a while!
In two weeks lets hope LNC send those BEARS back into the woods

 

[Nero64]

Did you guys receive forms to submit bank and TFN details after buying shares.

Does this mean they may pay a dividend in the future?

 

[Miner]

Did you guys receive forms to submit bank and TFN details after buying shares.

Does this mean they may pay a dividend in the future?

Nero 64
I do not want to pour water on your burning wishes.

I believe it is normal ritual to ask for your TFN and Bank details when you become a holder.

But who knows LNC may declare a dividend and let us wish that be right

DNH

 

[basilio]

$1.00 TO $1.49 IN two trading days...You have to wonder whether the bell is well and truly being rung.

 

[Goldmann]

LNC just hit 1.70... 39% up for the day!!! just need to hold, but its still climbing.. sellers are being eradicated.

finally the gate is open!!! bought another little parcel on PBONDs first news release last thursday at 1.205! finally something has swung my way in this horrible market!!!

hopefully a sale announcement on theresa in the next week or two, then its back north for this one!!!

the shorters would of been smashed today in this run!!!