LNC - Linc Energy

[basilio]

Significant jump in LNC shares ($1.22 - 1.37) after 12 pm today. I suggest it may have been a response to the BG offer for PES which is telling the market that energy resources are valuable - and in particular if they are low carbon emitters.

Or perhaps there is an even better reason?

 

[TheAbyss]

Significant jump in LNC shares ($1.22 - 1.37) after 12 pm today. I suggest it may have been a response to the BG offer for PES which is telling the market that energy resources are valuable - and in particular if they are low carbon emitters.

Or perhaps there is an even better reason?

I would doubt that the BG - PES play had anything to do with the LNC SP as they are different technologies that do not lend themselves to collaboration.

Unless some buyers today are confused as to how LNC intend to make their money.

 

[enigmatic]

Since friday when i picked this stock up it seems to have taken off a little, i was wondering if people believe this is got to do with the chinchilla asset sale being finalised possible in the not to distance future, or is there something else in the cards.

Or the last and the one with the highest probabilty is that I'm reading into these price flucuations to much and should be expecting another testing of support lower support levels in the near term.

 

[Mickel]

I would doubt that the BG - PES play had anything to do with the LNC SP as they are different technologies that do not lend themselves to collaboration.

Unless some buyers today are confused as to how LNC intend to make their money.

While they are different technologies, they both still extract gas from coal which is a valuable energy source. In my view the BG-Pes play is confirmation (and a reminder) that they are valuable. So I agree with you, Basilio.

Perhaps some readers of this thread have yet to read the Analyst Reports on the Linc website. Click on the "Investor Centre" tab and then "Analyst Reports" on the drop down menu to find them. They offer an opinion on how valuable the Linc GTL process is.

There was another rise in the SP today- $0.11 to $1.455 . Hope it continues.

I intend to hold for the long term.

 

[TheAbyss]

While they are different technologies, they both still extract gas from coal which is a valuable energy source. In my view the BG-Pes play is confirmation (and a reminder) that they are valuable. So I agree with you, Basilio.

Perhaps some readers of this thread have yet to read the Analyst Reports on the Linc website. Click on the "Investor Centre" tab and then "Analyst Reports" on the drop down menu to find them. They offer an opinion on how valuable the Linc GTL process is.

There was another rise in the SP today- $0.11 to $1.455 . Hope it continues.

I intend to hold for the long term.

The Qld Govt in their wisdom opted to award tenements to CSG and UCG companies on the same parcel. This has caused a lot of legal jockeying to lock down the land as only one technology can obtain the gas.

Given the lack of M&A activity for UCG plays i am of the view that the winner will be CSG not UCG. Purely my opinion and we all have one.

http://www.corrs.com.au/corrs/website/web.nsf/Content/Pub_ER_010803_Queenslands_New_Coal_seam_gas_regime_unveiled/$FILE/QLD%20coal%20seam%20gas%20regime%20unveiled.pdf

 

[Mickel]

P Bond stated this in part in his ASX announcement on 7 Aug 08 in response to Inaccuracies in an article in the "Australian" -

"In terms of the reference to incompatible industries as in one industry must
succeed at the expense of the other, this statement is also incorrect and
inaccurate. For example, the Queensland Gas Corporation (QGC) are
suggesting they are targeting 7255PJ of CSG for their future project/s. QGC
also admit that Linc Energy’s main site in Chinchilla contains only
approximately 32PJ (on a 2P basis) of CSG. If the entire 32PJ was removed
from that CSG total, the multi-billion dollar UCG industry Linc Energy is
proposing would have a minimal effect of less than 0.5% on QGC alone. Yet
in return, Linc Energy has the potential to create a minimum of approximately
210.000.000 barrels of oil (on the coal area that QGC admits to housing only
32PJ of CSM potential) over a 30 year period."

As far as I am aware, Linc's Chinchilla site is the only one that has overlapping mineral/petroleum exploration licences and even the overlapping area is small.

Is anyone aware of anything different ?

 

[TheAbyss]

P Bond stated this in part in his ASX announcement on 7 Aug 08 in response to Inaccuracies in an article in the "Australian" -

"In terms of the reference to incompatible industries as in one industry must
succeed at the expense of the other, this statement is also incorrect and
inaccurate. For example, the Queensland Gas Corporation (QGC) are
suggesting they are targeting 7255PJ of CSG for their future project/s. QGC
also admit that Linc Energy’s main site in Chinchilla contains only
approximately 32PJ (on a 2P basis) of CSG. If the entire 32PJ was removed
from that CSG total, the multi-billion dollar UCG industry Linc Energy is
proposing would have a minimal effect of less than 0.5% on QGC alone. Yet
in return, Linc Energy has the potential to create a minimum of approximately
210.000.000 barrels of oil (on the coal area that QGC admits to housing only
32PJ of CSM potential) over a 30 year period."

As far as I am aware, Linc's Chinchilla site is the only one that has overlapping mineral/petroleum exploration licences and even the overlapping area is small.

Is anyone aware of anything different ?

That would explain the lack of MA activity and the price of oil would cover the fall in the SP. UCG plays will follow the price of oil in all probability.

 

[light]

Well, I just want to draw everyone's attention back to LNC

The Chinese New Year has finished for sometimes now, and to be honest things doesn't look too good for the sale of Teresa.

IMO, the stock has been beaten badly in recent trades and may continue to suffer for the next few weeks (or even months). But it also seems to have found some support around $1.20. I believe given enough time, this stock will start to head up again because of its technology and overseas projects.

 

[Goldmann]

"As stated in its announcement of 23 December 2008, the Company is continuing to aggressively work towards completion of the sale of its Emerald (Teresa) tenements in February 2009 and will provide a further update to the market at the appropriate time."



any one else like me have serious doubts PBOND can secure a sale by end Feb... the market is doubting him...

And yep tend to agree if he hadnt pumped this up so much, the fact it didnt come off means that SP has been hammered...

 

[The Dealer]

"As stated in its announcement of 23 December 2008, the Company is continuing to aggressively work towards completion of the sale of its Emerald (Teresa) tenements in February 2009 and will provide a further update to the market at the appropriate time."



any one else like me have serious doubts PBOND can secure a sale by end Feb... the market is doubting him...

And yep tend to agree if he hadnt pumped this up so much, the fact it didnt come off means that SP has been hammered...

I don't think he pumped it up too much at all!
The guy owns 74% of the company. I don't think he cares too much for some one who own 20000 shares! He is doing what needs to be done for him as someone who has alot on the line. His stake is $444,000,000. I think he knows what he is doing.
LNC was the best performer in 08 and not too many layman had even heard about it. It is only people who frequent these types of chat rooms who actually pump it up.
Just like every company at present, they are valued by the balance sheet right now. There is no future earnings built in. You have to make up your own mind about the future of any company or sector and it's ability to produce income in the future.
I know I like it when Hillary Clinton is flying the globe talking up clean energy alternatives and says I don't need to visit Australia, they're in!
Just be patient on this one, just like people who are in a BHP or WPL they are down but not out.

 

[Mickel]

ASX Ann today by Carbon Energy-

"19th February 2009 ASX Announcement ASX: CNX Government Policy Delivers Certainty of Tenure for CNX

The Queensland Government yesterday announced a new policy in relation to overlapping tenements between Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and Coal Seam Gas (CSG) producers that clarifies the issue of priority access to resources and provides a clear pathway for all parties to move to production.

The key outcome for Carbon Energy is that the policy provides priority and certainty of tenure for Carbon Energy for the resource contained within its existing Mineral Development Licence area (MDL 374).
Andrew Dash, Carbon Energy’s Managing Director commented on the recent policy decision by saying “This policy ends months of speculation as to the competing rights between UCG and CSG players. For Carbon Energy this means that we have exclusive rights to at least 224 million tonnes of coal (approximately 75% of our recently announced resource upgrade) contained within our MDL which is suitable for UCG.
Based on our recent trial results, which demonstrated we produce 20 GJ for each tonne of coal gasified, we have at least 4,480 PJ of energy in situ. We believe that by applying our world leading UCG syngas technology and panel design that in excess of 2,500 PJ of UCG syngas is recoverable.
This is a huge resource in gas industry terms and can support more than 6 world scale manufacturing plants for over 30 years. In addition, the northern half of our MDL is relatively unexplored and is prospective for coal suitable for UCG; consequently further exploration in this area is likely to add substantially to our resource availability in the future.
This policy decision will now enable us to execute our plans for the development of this resource with full confidence”.
The announcement also outlined the requirement that each UCG syngas trial project be subject to monitoring conditions, including meeting stringent environmental standards, by the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). “Such requirements exist now and as such were not unexpected. Indeed, we welcome the Government’s commitment to continued environmental monitoring as this goes to the heart of our process and is one of the key benefits our technology” said Mr Dash.

Carbon Energy believes it is prudent to follow appropriate review processes for all major projects, including UCG syngas projects. Carbon Energy’s technology and process is the result of rigorous scientific development by Australia’s premier research organisation over 10 years, the CSIRO, and Carbon Energy welcomes any appropriate review of its world leading technology."

I haven't been able to find this new policy statement as yet. It will also have implications for other UCG and CSG companies especially LNC.
Has anyone seen this new policy statement?

CNX currently up 3c to 30c and LNC up 4.5c to $1.245

 

[Mickel]

I don't think he pumped it up too much at all!
The guy owns 74% of the company. I don't think he cares too much for some one who own 20000 shares! He is doing what needs to be done for him as someone who has alot on the line. His stake is $444,000,000. I think he knows what he is doing.
LNC was the best performer in 08 and not too many layman had even heard about it. It is only people who frequent these types of chat rooms who actually pump it up.
Just like every company at present, they are valued by the balance sheet right now. There is no future earnings built in. You have to make up your own mind about the future of any company or sector and it's ability to produce income in the future.
I know I like it when Hillary Clinton is flying the globe talking up clean energy alternatives and says I don't need to visit Australia, they're in!
Just be patient on this one, just like people who are in a BHP or WPL they are down but not out.

Dealer, I agree with you. However P Bond's shareholding as per his last disclosure is as follows with total shares issued approx 412 million-

"Appendix 3Y
Change of Director's Interest Notice


name of entity Linc Energy Ltd

We (the entity) give ASX the following information under listing rule 3.19A.2 and as agent for the director for the purposes of section 205G of the Corporations Act.
Name of Director Peter Adam Bond
Date of last notice 13/11/2008
Part I - Change of director's relevant interests in securities
In the case ofa trust, this includes interesls in the trust made available by the responsible entity ofthe trust

Direct or indirect interest -Indirect
Nature of indirect interest
(including registered holder)

The registered holder of the securities is

Newtron Pty Ltd. Peter Bond is a director and shareholder of Newtron Pty Ltd.
Date of change 19/11/2008, 20/11/2008 and 21/11/2008
No. of securities held prior to change 201,406,383 ordinary shares - indirect
Class Ordinary shares
Number acquired Nil
Number disposed 482,479 ordinary shares
Value/Consideration
Note: Ifconsideration is non-cash, provìde details and estirnated valuation
$2.87 per share
No. of securities held after change 200,923,904 ordinary shares - indirect
Nature of change

On-market trade"

So, he currently holds just under 50% of the company.

 

[light]

I haven't been able to find this new policy statement as yet. It will also have implications for other UCG and CSG companies especially LNC.
Has anyone seen this new policy statement?

I also have not found the official policy statement, but found this from Bloomberg instead.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=asqODoWC8dWo&refer=australia

It's basically saying that in the case of existing exploration licenses where there are overlapping claims, preference will be given to the coal-seam gas industry, and in areas where there aren’t existing licenses, the underground coal gasification industry will take preference.

 

[The Dealer]

So does this mean that LNC may have LNG as well?????
What a shock this may be.
Suppose BG isn't offering all this money to companies in the area for no reason.

 

[mexican]

So does this mean that LNC may have LNG as well?????
What a shock this may be.
Suppose BG isn't offering all this money to companies in the area for no reason.

Have a look at LNC's tenements, it will give you a good idea on what they are sitting on.
The Gallilee basin the poorer cousin of the Bowen basin is going to be the next big thing for thermal and gas so the experts say!

 

[Santoro]

Good to see the government make a decision....takes time but eventually someone has to make it.

Concern here is not coal reserves but getting some capital to move forward, the sooner PB can organise a sale of the Teresa tenements the better......even at a discount.

The sooner Linc starts a 20,000 bopd facility the better....would time nicely with a global recovery.....

 

[glads262]

End of the month tomorrow...

Well, end of the month tomorrow. The SP is in the same trading range as the market - sideways. What happened to the short sellers? Too scared to short now?

I would envisage some sort of announcement from the company shortly as last indication was that there should be a transaction by the end of this month ish.

There seems to be an EASY flow of cash from China, mostly to SECURE rights to commodities. What would be EASIER than buying 100% of a massive coal reserve which they know they need in the next 3-5 years?? I read today, that China's total stimulus could end up easily being $1trillion AUD?

 

[xscape]

The shorters are still shorting, perhaps not as heavily. Around about 20% of all trades almost every day have been reported shorts.

 

[Go Nuke]

Hmmm not really sideways looking to me.

I think it would need to break this down trend with some volume before buying in....just my opinion

 

[Mickel]

The shorters are still shorting, perhaps not as heavily. Around about 20% of all trades almost every day have been reported shorts.

Since LNC's announcement on 5/2 there have been only 3 days when more than 20% of shares traded were shorted and 3 days (incl 5/2) when none were shorted. The average for 15 days from 5/2 to 25/2 incl is 11.73%.

Info from - https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-...lectionID=68&SortField=dInDate&SortOrder=Desc

IMHO the announcement on 5/2 made clear that Linc MAY not get $1.5B on the sale of Teresa (or sell to the Chinese), and together with some positive news, hopefully in the next week or so, the short sellers are getting cold feet. I hope they freeze!

I continue to hold for the long term.