Is it possible that a prospective buyer may encourage or be involved in the short selling and/or computer generated trading, in order to push Linc's hand to sell? i hope not.
IMO shorters have been able to thrive due to the high supply of the stock vs low demand. There has also been a draw back and hold back of cash by investors, due to the situation in Euroupe and the US. Why do they do it? Because they can, and they profit from it to others detriment.
Labours Carbon Tax and MRRT has slowed the coal sale down along with the situation in Euroupe.
Linc is not yet earning a sustainable yearly profit. In times like these prospective investors are not willing to take on the risks of investing in a company that has not had proven positive cashflows.
But now Linc is $1.04. Very low and may attract short termers looking for a pop.
Linc has a bright future, the question is WHEN.
Oil production [cashflow] will increase progressively over the next few years.
The number and scale of oil, gas and coal leases held now compared to the last time Linc was around $1 is very different.
A US UCG 90 day trail is coming at the end of next year, CO2 is coming, EOR and Huff and Puff. I wonder if they can used to CO2 from this trail in their EOR work.
As time passes the Adani royalty is increasing in value.
Will they be able to find something new Umiat or just prove up the oil. Hopefully there is more there than known. Prudho bay is close, check out how big it is if you dont know. Even by proving this resource up, it will bring the road and pipeline closer to fruition and big long term cash flow closer too.
Also check out the PRB. Not sure if there is sale value there. But this report suggests it.
"Linc Energy acquired 180,000 acres of coal leases for $25m for a UCG trial operation in Wyoming’s coal prolific Powder River Basin ... The area is hotly contested with Peabody, Arch and ex-Rio Tinto Cloud Peak Energy. All would be eager to add to additional commercial coal to inventory and production, which LNC could monetize. We value the conventional coal mine ..."
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...BsMx5J&sig=AHIEtbQE7TNNhqbVC_vK3G5k-kVuTYKLig
Check out the seams at Arch's Black Thunder Coal mine in the PRB
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LQwxTm94Ps
Basilio i think there will be about $30-40m by Jan 12.
Minus $130m for ERG assets deposits bought in Oct.
- Drilling, Huff and Puff, Wages, items for the UCG plants and GTL, Cricket and advertising, buy back, presentations, oil field improvements, afc fuel cell, powerhouse units? all cost money..
Are they able to sustain ops without a coal sale?? I think the prospective buyers are licking their lips as Linc's cash reserves have lowered. Can Linc increase its cash flow, it depends if they can continue to increase production with their current drilling program. The first well has them on target, but its only the first. Huff and Puff results should be coming out soon and then the completion of the second well in the ERG fields. Maybe the Rancher field production will get a kick in the right direction from this huff and puff exercise.
Below is a quick guestimate..
3300bpd x $85 x 365days = approx $120m - $60 (cash burn?/500 employees wages etc?) - $60m (loan repayments over 3-4 years, tax/royalty) = $0 ?
+ $0.5m Uzbekistan?
I read posts that the execs are over in China.