LKO - Lakes Blue Energy

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hit and cleared at one point 0.008 well done to all the faithful holders out there

Faces a major hurdle at 0.009 if cleared (Big If) will move alot higher

Lots of news happening over the next week or 2

What a great perfromance in such terrible market conditions

Now that 0.009 has been cleared it should form a support level, hit an intra day high of 1.1c

Ive banked some profits today at 1c

Good luck to us all

 

[philly]

SP closed at 1.1c today. Looks like finally the market may be recognising the potential upside of this coy. Waiting for more positive news in the next few weeks. Good luck to all the holders.

 

[JackC]

What a great perfromance in such terrible market conditions

Now that 0.009 has been cleared it should form a support level, hit an intra day high of 1.1c

Ive banked some profits today at 1c

Good luck to us all

Hi YT,
I also took some profit today at 1c but still have a nice parcel left & await the impending 'Trifon & Gangell' valuation which should be out over the next few weeks.
Potential for more good news with the wombat workover adds to the upside & has the potential to pust the SP much highter imho. I am also interested in the much larger, un-drilled 'Baragawanath' field that has the potential to dwarf the 2 existing assets. All this near to existing pipelines & infrastructure.
Exciting times for all LKO holders...

 

[BESBS Player]

Agree Jack - exciting times ahead for LKO. The momentum today, given the red day for the market, shows that LKO is starting to attract attention.

I love a problem that exists because too much oil is filling up a hole!!!


Holding LKO at .004c

 

[nevieboy]

What a great perfromance in such terrible market conditions

Now that 0.009 has been cleared it should form a support level, hit an intra day high of 1.1c

Ive banked some profits today at 1c

Good luck to us all

HI YT,
Why did you cash up some at 1c when there is so much more potenciaul for this stock to go much higher according to you.
Don't get me wrong I'm not having a go at you, I hold 1.3m shares of LKO since mid Jan 09 and want these bastards to go through the roof,so therefore why would you take some profits when there will be a few good announcements coming out in the next few months or so?
Just wondering.

 

[nomore4s]

While I haven't been following this thread I've just had a quick read through the last few pages and there are quite a few posts with low/poor content or mild ramps.

This is a warning that any more posts with low/poor content or mild ramps will be removed and infractions handed out.

 

[sidious]

I have been watching LKO since last March or April. That time it was trading around .05 to .06. Trades around 4 to 5 each day. The idea of holding hundred thousands to millions of shares is tempting. Imagine if it will rise to just $1. I will be a millionare. I was thinking of buying using my punting funds but decided not too.

I checked the charts and they seem to have been around since 1989. From that time till now, their share price has only been around .01 to .1 range. Average. I was thinking if during those good all times, they haven't made progress, why will it do now given the global financial crisis. I decided to punt on others like BTA, ESI, and GDN.

Good luck guys. This is not a downramp. Just my opinion

 

[JTLP]

I have been watching LKO since last March or April. That time it was trading around .05 to .06. Trades around 4 to 5 each day. The idea of holding hundred thousands to millions of shares is tempting. Imagine if it will rise to just $1. I will be a millionare. I was thinking of buying using my punting funds but decided not too.

I checked the charts and they seem to have been around since 1989. From that time till now, their share price has only been around .01 to .1 range. Average. I was thinking if during those good all times, they haven't made progress, why will it do now given the global financial crisis. I decided to punt on others like BTA, ESI, and GDN.

Good luck guys. This is not a downramp. Just my opinion

LOL! I think everybody has dreams of their shares rocketing 100 - 1000%. As mentioned previously, LKO has billions of shares on issue...and things like this (drilling) cost money so they print more. I'm sure punters along the way have made dosh (few on here are examples) but to hold since '89 would have been a fairly lengthy 'investment'...

Just also to point out that with billions of shares on issue it's kinda hard to get up there...but hey OXR (now OZL) did it...so did BPT!

Anyway congrats to BESBS and YT who jumped on at .005. I was sure tempted then but my next overseas junket proved my demise...

DNH

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

HI YT,
Why did you cash up some at 1c when there is so much more potenciaul for this stock to go much higher according to you.
Don't get me wrong I'm not having a go at you, I hold 1.3m shares of LKO since mid Jan 09 and want these bastards to go through the roof,so therefore why would you take some profits when there will be a few good announcements coming out in the next few months or so?
Just wondering.

Its what I always do, its what I've always done, I take profits so I live to fight another day, the mkts are taking an absolute beating at the moment and so I have been reducing my positons accordingly, this is sort of a Macro Approach, on a Micro Stock specific I continue to hold a fair chunk of LKO becuase of all the fundamental reasons I have outlined

The strategy I employ always means I do leave profit on the table but I dont care as it ensures I live to fight another day

 

[BESBS Player]

Should be interesting to see if we get any updates from LKO management before the weekend. The below might be of interest to LKO holders:


Article is provided courtesy of ABC News:

I especially like Rob Annells' comment regarding depth of the find in the Wombat field...we could be sitting on a rocketship here people...

An oil and gas exploration company says its found an onshore oil flow on the Gippsland coastline near Seaspray in south-east Victoria.

The executive chairman of Lakes Oil, Rob Annells, says the discovery was made during exploratory drilling works in the area.

He says the find is geologically significant, and could herald the first onshore oil flow in the Gippsland Basin.

Mr Annells says it is possible the field could be deeper than offshore sites, and the company will start further explorations immediately.

"Which is pretty much the same as what's been recovered offshore, but the difference is that it's much lower in the section, so it's not a surprise to us, but we are surprised that it's flowing, rather than sitting there dead in the bottom of the hole, it's actually flowing into the hole," he said.

Although LKO are obviously re-testing 3 targets at present, I think the SP spike earlier this week was probably on the back of releases like this. Without news, stocks like this can also drift downward. It will be very interesting to see whether the next release has any impact.

Happily holding LKO at .004c

 

[BESBS Player]

" Although LKO are obviously re-testing 3 targets at present, I think the SP spike earlier this week was probably on the back of releases like this. Without news, stocks like this can also drift downward. It will be very interesting to see whether the next release has any impact. "

No news yet and I would not be expecting too much until later this week (at least the end of this financial year). As I suggested above, the SP has drifted a little as profit-takersa move in (after all, a lot of traders would have losses that they could off-set a gain in LKO against for this financial year) and Pattersons would have been feeding stock through as well over the last few days.

Tomorrow could be interesting...will we see some early sales with profit-takers wanting to cash in once we hit the new financial year? Won't be too long before we start to get news from management about the Wombat!

Holding LKO

 

[BESBS Player]

From today's Herald Sun:


Lakes Oil makes leap.

Premier John Brumby hasn't had a lot of good news on the revenue side recently, so he will be an interasted spectator as listed Gippsland explorer Lakes Oil tries to make a transition to production.

Unlike offshore oil and gas, tax from onshore production goes straight to the State Government rather than to Canberra.

Which means a 10 per cent royalty on all oil and gas Lakes Oil can produce, which would be more than welcome in Spring Street as the recession cuts chunks out of property and payroll taxes.

Of course it may be some time before Lakes Oil really hits its stride but oil is continuing to flow at its Wombat 3 welland advanced fracturing equipment is trying to free more gas flow from Wombat 2 and North Seaspray 3.

The company hopes to produce commercial quantities of gas out of its "tight sandstone formations with the added advantage that Wombat gas contains virtually no carbon dioxide which would help the state reach its greenhouse gas targets.


From my understanding, we should be getting an update from management re. Trifon and Gangell. This would be a great boost as the Wombat development unfolds.

 

[BESBS Player]

First Big announcement out on the ASX.

Wombat 2:

*1.35 million cubic feet stabilised! This is double what the original flow rate was back a few years ago.

* There are other zones to fracture in wombat 2...this is only the first.

* Wombat 3 to report soon with flow rates and BOPD...

This is starting to look like a decent discovery...



holding LKO at .004c

 

[mobcat]

Just found this on the news wires ,big day tommorow for LKO by the looks hey

Sydney - Wednesday - July 1: (RWE Australian Business News) -
Lakes Oil NL (ASX:LKO) reports its Wombat 2 well near Seaspray in
Victoria has been successfully refractured in the gas zone at 1470m.
This morning, after a cleanout, the well flowed at an initial
estimated rate of 4.3m cubic feet per day and later decreased and
stabilised to 1.35m cubic feet per day flowing through a half-inch
choke.
This gas zone was previously fracture stimulated in 2004 and
gave a sustainable gas flow of 680,000 cubic feet per day.
The current flow of gas and frac fluids is an estimate only and
the sustainable gas flow will not be known for several weeks as the gas
flow increases and as the frac fluid flow decreases.

*****

Lakes Oil injected 155,297 lbs of proppant into the 1470m zone
in Wombat 2 to produce an effective fracture length of 275 feet. By
comparison, the 2004 fracturing placed only 73,831 lbs of proppant into
this zone, producing an effective fracture length of about 86 feet.
The company notes it has only fracture stimulated one zone out
of several known in this well.
There are additional zones suitable for fracture stimulation in
the other two Wombat wells.
These are untested to date and have the potential to
substantially increase the total flow rate from the Wombat Field.
"The success of our latest refracture treatment and increased
flows gives us confidence that we are close to the commercialisation of
the Wombat Field," Lakes Oil said.

*****

Gaffney, Cline & Associates has released an independent review
of the gas potential of the Greater Trifon Field incorporating the
Trifon, Gangell and Seaspray structures in PRL 2.
A summary of gas initially in place and contingent gas resources
for the Greater Trifon Field shows a 2C contingent resource of 390 bcf
of gas.
The Greater Trifon Field estimate, along with the previously
reported 2C contingent resources of 293 bcf for the Wombat Field, makes
a total 2C contingent resource of 683 bcf for the two areas. This total
reflects results only from the southern fields in PRL 2.
ENDS rx

 

[BESBS Player]

Good post, Mobcat.

What a great announcement. What timing...I'm shocked...wait until June 30, give a full day for a few profit-takers to clear the decks for July 1, then strike me pink an announcement happens to hit the airwaves after close. BEAUTIFUL WORK by management

Back when Wombat first drilled, I bought in at 1.8c and it went to just shy of 8c in the media/emotion-led run (although I dipped out at 6.8c). With this background, and lots of support from the Vics, LKO could run again...
Now we have a stabilised 1.35 million cubic feet, double the 2004 flow rates! We also have the offer to do additional fractures in Wombat 2 (which did not exist previously in 2004).
Add Wombat 3, (and a little oil? - there was mention of this in a recent ASX release)...

Usually I sell out as a BESBS but this has been my one exception - guess buying in at .004c gave me a decent cushion and while I am not usually sentimental about shares, this old dog has been kind to me before. Happy now to wait and watch. The market will tell us if things look as promising as my interpretation of early developments.

Cheers,
BESBS Player

Holding LKO at .004c

 

[jay2000]

How many Million cubic feet does it take for LKO or any other similar company to be considered commercial? Holding LKO @ .006

 

[BESBS Player]

Hi Jay,

At this stage, it is more about the potential of the other prospects than just Wombat 2.

Mathew Murphy:

[I]The Age[/I] July 2, 2009:

LAKES Oil's Wombat 2 well in the onshore Gippsland Basin has flowed gas at a rate that, if sustained, would make the project one of the largest onshore in Victoria.

Melbourne-based Lakes said Wombat 2 had produced a stabilised gas flow of 1.35 million cubic feet a day after the well was refractured. It said the result moved the project closer to achieving commercialised flow rates.

The sustainable gas flow will not be known for several weeks but Lakes has two untested wells that have been declared suitable for fracture and that have the potential to increase the total flow rate substantially.

Lakes Oil chairman Rob Annells said it was an exciting development.

"These are big numbers that are independently put to us and I think we are just about there," he said. "We were expecting figures in that order."

Jay, it is not just the size of this first gas flow but the fact that there are other options to fracture more tests in Womabt 2, then add Wombat 3 (which already shows a little oil as well), then the Gangell & Trifon upgrades. Needless to say, this is the basis for the quote above in The Age today:

"LAKES Oil's Wombat 2 well in the onshore Gippsland Basin has flowed gas at a rate that, if sustained, would make the project one of the largest onshore in Victoria."

Good luck to all holders.
Holding LKO at .004c

 

[nunthewiser]

held at .005 as posted here a while back on entry ......... removed original capital today at 1.3 , free ride now..... sunshine and lollipops boys and girls

 

[nunthewiser]

just in case im asked to prove yet another trading claim

mainly posting this here as someone in chat reckons im full of it re LKO even tho ive been telling him about them since .005

please disregard my post to all others as this mainly for one fella that is having a wish trade day in there

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Bring on the updated valuation I say,

For interests sake I have brought back up the figures I crunched to put a value on PRL2






I was looking at LKO's AGM presentation to try and figure out what Triffon and Gangell might be valued at.

It appears Trifon and Gangell which have combined around 950BCF (Wombat is 700BCF) so its 1.35x the size of Wombat, based on that and using 30c a GJ they should get 1.35x Wombat valuation = $90m - $120m

Another point of interest is that most CSG transactions in Qld and NSW have been done at $3 per 2P so really 30c per 2P seems ridiculously cheap, however this is Vic not Qld and its tight gas not CSG, but I would have thought something like 90c 2P was more appropriate per 2P

Using 90c/2P we get $420m - $624m

So basically 3 of LKO's 6 gas fields would be worth mean $175m = 4cents LKO at 30c GJ very conservative to a more takeover target sale value of say 90c GJ which is a mean value of $522m = 12c LKO


Please note these are my estimates and calculations only at the end of the day LKO is worth what a buyer be it retail, institutional or an Oil company is willing to pay for it, I'm just trying to highlight the potential blue sky



Image 1 (Page 6 AGM pres) shows the location of LKO's RL2 (note this is one of many leases they have) and its clear to see on RL2 that there are 6 seperately identified and mapped Gas Fields with a 7th and much larger BARAGAWANATH gas field

It also shows the location of the Alinta Gas Hub and the Longford Gas facility

Image 2 (page 12 AGM pres) shows the value range for Wombat

Image 3 (page 13 AGM pres) shows the estimated reserves of gas for the other fields