LKO - Lakes Blue Energy

[BESBS Player]

G'day all.

As I suspected, no news came from Wombat 3 (hence one reason given above explaining why I jumped ship at 1.5c ave) and now we have just closed the SPP.

The scenario now looks this way to me:

* Capital raising now closed. While it butchered the SPP,this has given the general holders a chance to get in at 'Patterson's rates' before more news arrives. Any shortfall will probably end up with Sophisticated Investors (inc. pattersons?). This way, everyone has a chance to get some cheapies...

* Capital Raising has now capped the price around 1-1.1c.

* Wombat 3 shall be some time off yet. By the time they get the new equipment to test this, we could have Wombat 4 underway. Not likely but possible.

* Wombat 2 is more technically challenging than first assumed (given the announcements). It should take a little while to establish sustained flow test results. Basic equipment appears to be already headed for Seaspray.

* Given the potential delay in news from Wombat 2 given recent technical issues (& 3), the chance of the next significant release being initial flow rates from Seaspray increases. Given that we already know that some gas exists, the odds of positive news at the initial flow rate stage are better than usual.

Finally, this is simply my ponderings and I could be (and most likely will be) wrong! That said, I am starting to buy LKO again while the SPP keeps a cap on the SP in the short interum. The risk also exists that many of the 1c SPP stock could hit the market once Seaspray news is released. Nevertheless, that would only take some gloss off the excitement in Vic. if this project appears to continue to have some success.

Good luck to all holders.

 

[BESBS Player]

Nice announcement out today by LKO.
Nothing earth shattering but a good way to keep LKO in the news and it does help highlight the potential of tight gas plays in the future of the energy sector in Australia.

Holding LKO

 

[nunthewiser]

Volume spike on this little pound pup if anyone intrested........... no idea why but it just showed up on my abnormal volume scan .

i hold a few freebies

 

[Sennej]

Yep nice spike. Are people out there taking up their entitlement? I am & am hoping for a continual rise from LKO. Hopefully they will release some positive news soon..

 

[fureien]

Volume spike on this little pound pup if anyone intrested........... no idea why but it just showed up on my abnormal volume scan .

i hold a few freebies

you have a program that scans for abnormal volume?

or did you mean you manual look? ive had a problem that theres too many stocks to check indivudally and most stats provided by brokers usually just show the top 20.

back on topic though. Yes the spike put a smile on my face
i managed to double my holdings when my buy order got processed at 10 cents a few days ago and i didnt have to take up entitlement lol.

the interesting thing is that there was a stalemate between 10 and 11 cents and now that 11 cents has finally broken through, we have seen a spike. personally from a chartists point of view, it might keep going higher, because 10 cents has been set as a nice support. Quite similar to SDL

 

[happytown]

lakes have just released an ann regarding an independent asset valuation

...

This evaluation will now allow shareholders to understand how the company has grown with its strategic gas/oil drilling/fracing programs.

These assets are now valued (P50 basis) at between $104 million and $217million (see table below).

Note that the current market capitalisation of Lakes Oil N.L (including all of its exploration assets as well as cash) is approximately $44 million.

...

cheers

another quality post brought to you by happytown inc
... and for no charge

 

[gfresh]

haha.. scan just came across this one.. interesting eh..

Reminds me a little of PPP, un-noticed for so long, with cash reserves above it's market cap.. took a few months for the market to catch on though.

 

[philly]

Whilst LKO has recently announced increased estimates for the Gas In Place [GIP] from the Wombat field there is a big difference between GIP and having a productive commercial gas field as the Warro gas field in WA has shown. Whilst the technology has improved the recovery of tight gas is still at the embryonic stage and IMHO I don't expect that the SP will take off quite yet. Nonetheless I remain a happy holder

 

[fureien]

haha.. scan just came across this one.. interesting eh..

Reminds me a little of PPP, un-noticed for so long, with cash reserves above it's market cap.. took a few months for the market to catch on though.

out of curiosity you normally find information about cash reserves in the financial statements right? and the ratio between market cap and reserves you have to compare and calculate yourself right?
unless theres a nice ratio we can use that i dont know about.

so isnt it normal for it to go unnoticed, theres alot of companies and although its some people's bread and butter to do these kind of analysis, its just impractical to go through every company without a good reason, therefore its normal for the market to realise slowly as people accidentally come acrross the figures right?

unless of course they all happen to sign up to forums where each company has a band of loyal followers who have always kept track and notice every change.

btw when u say "scan" how do u "scan". do u have a program or manually?

 

[gfresh]

I came across it using a scan for volume that has increased over the EMA of volume in the last 20 days .. using Amibroker. Which I do when looking for new opportunities. Just a technical scan, which may turn up anything worth looking at account statements, announcements, what else is going on, etc to see whether there is any potential or whether it may move.

As you say, looking at accounting statements is often pretty valuable, but it does require some knowledge of that area (not claiming that I myself do).

Often these grand "valuation" statements can be pie in the sky stuff, but they sometimes are worth looking at.

 

[happytown]

and lakes clarifies the recent independent valuation as annd on 14/08/09, thusly, today

...

On 14 August 2009 Lakes Oil N.L. released details of the Asset Valuation complied by Palliser Strategic Management for the Wombat, Trifon, Gangell and Seaspray structures in PRL2, onshore Gippsland Victoria. As stated in that release, those assets are valued (P50 basis) at between $104 million and $217 million.

Lakes Oil N.L. holds a 100% interest in the Wombat structure, and holds a 50% interest in the Trifon, Gangel and Seaspray structures. Accordingly, Lakes Oil N.L. wishes to clarify that the Lakes Oil N.L. held component of those assets are therefore valued (P50 basis) at between $79 million and $155 million. The accelerated growth price scenario becomes $116 million to $155 million.

cheers

another ... you know the drill

 

[BESBS Player]

Nice to see an announcement about the oil. Although it is great to read about the quality of it, until we know the quantity there is little to excite the market. In a similar way, the recent updated estimate reserves help encourage the market but need to be proven (a point well made by Philly!)

That said, it is great to see LKO management trying to keep positive news in the market to ensure the greatest take-up of the SPP possible. This is exactly what they should be doing and credit to them for it as cash is gold in this market.

Once we start to get any positive news from Wombat 2 or 3, or the start of drilling at Wombat 4, we might get some SP lift.

I have taken up my allocation but no more. As posted earlier, I took my 265% profit at 1.5c and then re-invested 20% of the profits at 1c. Happy to hold now and watch for the next month or two as the story unfolds.

Good luck to all holders.

 

[wtang89]

BESBS, wow good job man, nice play . I only recently took notice of LKO, still looking for an entry point at around the 1.1c mark. You have an estimate on the value of LKO? atm it seems like its in the process of something big but still early days i guess.

 

[BESBS Player]

Hi Wtang,

I know some people give estimates but so much depends upon these becoming reality and the order of announcements. Drilling issues can dampen enthusiasm as well.
I'll be happy with 1.6c-2c in the next 2 months but would love much more...

Holding...

 

[philly]

BESBS, wow good job man, nice play . I only recently took notice of LKO, still looking for an entry point at around the 1.1c mark. You have an estimate on the value of LKO? atm it seems like its in the process of something big but still early days i guess.

Hi wtang89,
I agree with BESBS Player. As a long term holder of LKO there are just too many "ifs". Sure there is plenty of potential if the finds prove to be commercial but that may be some time before we know. The other consideration is the number of shares on issue. LKO is not shy to rattle the tins for more cash and increases in the number of shares on issue will dilute the value per share. In the short term a SP of between 1.5 and 2 cents would be a good result for long term holders and would still be a reasonable entry point for new investors. Hopefully, in time we will look back and congratulate ourselves for getting in at such a bargain price.

 

[wtang89]

Hey guys, after looking over the financial statements and the recent announcements i bought myself a nice parcel on friday at 1.1c. Hopefully this company blows up like EXT, MEO or BUY in recent weeks. While this company seems to have alot of shares issued, i noticed it has very low debt levels (both current and non-current) so im not too worried about that. Maybe the management isnt a fan of debt financing...As i understand it, an asset evaluations was done which puts the value at 80-150 mil, with 44m in shares and low debt levels, it seems like a steal to me? What you guys think? Can the market be slow in realising its value? What exiting prices are you guys thinking?

 

[nunthewiser]

i care nothing about this company , i view it as a private slush fund for those involved.......the directors always have done well , dilution after dilution , cap raise after cap raise ..........this company has a history of this as long has my habit .........its all about spikes and lows


not deramping , the facts and LONG term chart are in black and white available for all to see

i hold but removed all original capital from .005 purchase

i will buy more on the break if and when it happens

 

[BESBS Player]

Just read through the ASX release today.

Today's announcement holds hope despite the delayed results at Wombat 2. Fraccing can take time and trying to clear wells is not always a quick job. That said, we have reduced gas flows still coming through and given time and effort (and it appears that Rob Annells is going to throw everything he can at this job), there is still much hope that Wombat 2 will flow pleasing rates.

The results of the SPP is a bonus. Cash is gold in this market and an additional $9m+ means that Wombat 4 and other drilling activities will be covered. Who knows...wonder if Pattersons will jump on board again as they have supported LKO recently during this campaign?

Finally, we have another well about to drill. Wombat 4, given the proximity to the other sites in the project, has a better than the usual wildcat chance of success. September is not long away! If Wombat 4 gets underway and hits good flow rates, LKO might be in for a good October. Wouldn't it be nice to see a small SP run before Wombat 4, then a positive release regarding Wombat 2, then good flow rates from Wombat 4???!!! No guarantees but the chance exists as all three of these activities are due to occur in the next few weeks.

IMHO, now is the time for LKOers to hang on for another month and see what the drilling brings...


Holding again at 1.05c ave

 

[fureien]

out of curiosity how many units are u holding? i bought a parcel idiotically during the exentitlement period, even though i knew it wud drop to 1 cent eventually. I just wasnt sure if my order wud get processed with 100+ buyers and low volume lol. Somehow i managed to get it processed and still have 100 more buyers after me. Lowered my average, inceased my holding and watched it go up. sweet as

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Back in are we BEBS? I want to but for some reason after first buying at 0.005 I just cant seem to commit to bring myself to buy at 1.1c-1.2c even though the 1c capital raising has now put a 1c floor on the stock for the next few weeks/months at least

Watching from the sidelines